Winds of Change ?

Hardly a week passes without some Newspapers or TV Channels announcing the results of their “ Opinion Polls “ of voters re :

Ø  Forthcoming State Elections

Ø  Narendra Modi  vs  Rahul Gandhi

Ø  NDA  vs  UPA  vs  Third Front …..etc

Not only the number of voters being polled increasing but even the coverage is increasing

Questions being asked are mostly open-ended

But then , all Statistical Sampling carry the danger of a bias getting introduced through,

Ø  Conducting Agency

Ø  Sample Size

Ø  No of Options ( Centralization Tendency )

Ø  Leading questions

Ø  Stratification of people being polled….etc

Given all of these limitations , there can be no doubt that the Opinion Polls are pointers to the shape of things to come

Whereas contesting parties – and candidates – can afford to debate the accuracy of the exact “ Numbers “ , they may ignore the “ Trend “ at their own peril !

The trend is very clear ,

Ø  In Delhi , Aam Aadmi Party ( AAP ) will come to power with an absolute majority

Ø  In other 4 States , BJP will improve its share

Ø  At the Centre ( in 2014 National Elections ) , NDA may form the Government thru a coalition

On 4^th Dec , people of Delhi will re-confirm these trends by electing 40 + AAP candidates

The Wind of Change is an ill-wind that blows Congress no good  !

·          hemen  parekh  (  19  Oct  2013  )