Does AAP have a Chance ?

Does AAP have a chance to win substantial number of seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections  ?

Not , if we go by a Times of India article by Milan Vaishnav ( 02 Feb 2014 )

Following is my interpretation of the article :

>   CRIME  PAYS

     What is the probability of winning election ?

     #  Only 7 % chance of winning if candidate has NO criminal case pending

    #  22 % chance of

 winning if candidate has at least one case pending  !

      PROOF  ?

     Lok Sabha

    *  162 MPs have pending Criminal cases , of which , 76 face " Serious "  

        charges

     State Assemblies

    *  31 % of MLAs have pending Criminal cases , and 15 % face " Serious "

       charges

   Moral of the History  ?

     Give tickets to only those candidates who have one - or more - criminal

     cases pending  !

>   MONEY  WORKS

     What is the probability of winning election  ?

    #  Only 1 % chance of winning if candidate belongs to the poorest 20 %

         of the MPs

    #  A whopping 25 % chance of winning if candidate belongs to the richest

        20 % of the MPs  !

    Moral of the History  ?

    Give tickets to only those candidates who have declared assets of Rs 200

    crore or more

>  CRIME  VS  MONEY

    #  Only 6 % of the POOR ( bottom 20 % ) candidates face Criminal

        charges

    #  Nearly 20 % of the RICH ( top 20 % ) candidates face Criminal

         charges

    Moral of the History  ?

    To ensure 100 % chance of winning, give preference to those candidates ,

    who are both , RICH  and  CRIMINAL   !

   I just don't understand why those AAP aspirants are fighting with Arvind ,

   for getting tickets  ! 

In face of such irrefutable / overwhelming evidence ,

   what can the poor fellow do  ?

   How about asking each aspiring candidate to fill in their personal data  

   in the following formula  ?

            ( CC+NSC ) * FBA/BLD + CA/PRA

P = ------------------------------------------

             (  NPA + NRE ) - PFU

Where ,

P  =  Probability of winning the election

CC =  Number of Criminal cases pending

CA =   Current Assets ( Rs Crores )

PRA =  Rise in Assets in last 3 years (  %  )

NRE =  Number of close relatives

NPA =  Number of times changed political affiliation in past 5 years

NSC =  Number of Scams in which listed

FBA =  Number of Foreign Bank accounts ( not only Swiss banks )

BLD = Number of PSU Bank loan defaults ( only those above Rs 5 Crores )

PFU =  Party Funds used for Campaign

Why leave candidate selection to human judgment  /  bias  ?

It is high time to introduce some transparency in candidate selection process 

   *   hemen  parekh  (  10 Feb 2014 / Mumbai  )