Monday, 4 December 2017

India : Energy Storage Mission






[   E-  mail :  Transport-niti@gov.in     /   cstranger@rmi.org  ]



For all interested in manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India , this is an excellent document


NITI Aayog deserve congratulations for this authoritative paper

Among many statistical projections and conclusions , this report says :

·         India would require a minimum of 20 GIGA FACTORIES by 2030 ( for 800 Gwh capacity )
[  40 Gwh per factory  ]

If we assume that some industry ( Reliance / JSW / Suzuki –DENSO / M&M etc ) manages to put up the very first such Giga factory in 2020 , then , this would require at least TWO giga-factories to be commissioned EVERY YEAR for the next 10 YEARS ( 2020 till 2030 )


FOR REFERENCE :

TESLA’s Giga-factory has a capacity of 35 Gwh and expected to cost $ 5 Billion ( apprx. Rs 35,000 Cr )
So , a 40 Gwh factory might cost , approx. Rs 40,000 cr


That means , we need an investment of Rs 80,000 Cr per year ( for 2 factories ) , for 10 years in row !



QUESTIONS :

·         Which private sector companies would come forward with such HUGE investments – especially when private sector investments have literally dried up during past 2 years ?


·         Which bank ( private or public ) would come forward with funding of these giga-factories, even as it is struggling to take big “ hair cuts “ on its existing NPA ?


·         Which company-director ( inside or outside ) would dare to go to the market for funds – when Li-ion Battery prices are DROPPING by an ave of 19 % per year ?

{  Projections :  2017 > $ 240/Kwh  //  2025  >  $ 109 / Kwh  //  2030  > $ 73 / Kwh  }




LARGER  PICTURE :

·         As per Report , for 100 % domestic manufacture of batteries, India would require,

      #    3,500 Gwh of Lithium-ion Batteries
     #     That would require an investment of $ 300 Billion [  Rs 20 Lakh*Crore  ]




MY  TAKE :

·         Government has neither the money , nor the expertise for setting up Giga factories


·         Private Sector would not want to take on such hugely  “ Risky “ ventures


·         Banks want to play “ Safe “ while lending in light of many adverse negative developments



WHAT  IS  THE  WAY  OUT  :


·         Government to launch “ Battery Infra SPV


·         Under Indonesia type “ Black Money Amnesty Scheme “ enable stashed away Black Money to come out in the official banking channel ( through deposits made in “ INFRA ACCOUNTS “ – like Jan Dhan Accounts ) . Remember , Indonesia managed to raise $ 342 Billions !

           Read :




·         Such converted ( Black to White ) monies can only be invested in “ Battery Infra SPV “


Hoping for any other way to raise such HUGE amounts of “ Risk Free “  and  “  Interest Free “ funds , in such a short time , would only amount to  WISHFUL  THINKING  !


I hope someone has the courage to tell the public this terrible TRUTH !


It is time to forget all that senile talk of an AMNESTY SCHEME rewarding the dishonest tax-evaders and punishing the honest / middle class tax payers !


It is time to tell the people : If we want to eliminate air pollution and save 600,000 premature deaths per year , then Means are unimportant ;  Ends are  !



05  Dec  2017









No comments:

Post a Comment