Blog: A Twin Tragedy ?

Yesterday ,

· a barrel of crude oil was selling for $ 85

· $ 1 , could fetch you , Rs 73.4

And petrol was selling for Rs 91 / liter in Mumbai

What would happen if ,

· Oil sells for $ 100 / barrel , and

· Rupee slides to $ 1 = Rs 100 ?

That would cost Rs 10,000 to buy a barrel of oil, which when refined, would yield between 40 – 70 litre of petrol ( depending upon the quality of crude ) . Let us assume, 50 litre of refined petrol from 1 barrel of crude

So , before refining, the RAW MATERIAL COST would be Rs 200 per litre of petrol !

For you , that would translate to Rs 450 per litre at the petrol pump !

You do not have to be an expert to guess what such a scenario could mean to our economy

Of course, a great majority of experts would assure us that there is a very low probability of such an event happening

But then , same persons would also rule out the existence of a BLACK SWAN , which author Nassim Taleb describes as follows :

* It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,

because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

* It carries an " EXTREME IMPACT "

* In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct

" EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it

explainable and PREDICTABLE

In brief ,

* Rarity

* Extreme Impact

* Retrospective Predictability

According to Taleb ,

* The highly expected " not happening ", is also a Black Swan

In “ Retrospection “ , here is what I wrote :

A Full Blown Crisis ? [ 25 April 2011 ]

World Bank president Robert Zoellick warns that the world is one shock away from a full-blown crisis.

Here are my guesses re: where that one shock may come from :

* European Invasion…………….. [ Libya ]

* Ethnic Massacres………………….[ Africa ]

* Population Explosion…………… [ India ]

* Regimes Overthrow………………[ Middle East ]

* Nuclear Nemesis…………………….[ Japan ]

* Economic Collapse…………………[ PIGS ]

* Overheated Economy…………… [ China ]

* Melting Snows…………………………[ Poles ]

* Terror Exports…………………………[ Pakistan ]

* Food Shortages……………………… [ Developing Countries ]

* Global Warming………………………[ Worldwide ]

Feel free to add your own.

There is no doubt that in 2011, a “ Black Swan “ event is around the corner !

Not being a later-day Nostradamus , I could not foresee :

· Brexit

· Trade Wars

But the issue is hardly what one could anticipate or not

Question is :

What do we do now to face this Twin Tragedy ?

Answer is :

Treat this impending calamity as a “ blessing in disguise “

Let us pull out all stops and turn to Solar Power

Let us advance our target date ( for reaching 100 GW ) from 2022 to 2020

Only yesterday , SoftBank CEO , Masayoshi Son said

“ As long as you have the land and sunshine, as long as you have eyes and ears listening to me, I will give you free power “

But he is offering that FREE power , AFTER 25 years , when he has recovered his investment from his existing / planned solar projects !

We , in India , just do NOT have the luxury to wait for 25 years !

If we want to survive the impending TRADE WAR ( unleashed by Trump and racing around the World like a Tsunami ), then we must have that FREE solar power by 2020 !

That is just one of the ways to turn India into a LOW COST ECONOMY

I have described that WAY in :

Unlimited Power : and round the clock ? [ 29 July 2016 ]

How Cheap can it get ? [ 14 March 2017 ]

Piyush Goyal is a Visionary ! [ 19 March 2017 ]

INDIA : the NEW LAND OF THE RISING SUN ? [ 01 April 2017 ]

Masayoshi Son said :

“ Less than 1 per cent of India’s land mass will be sufficient for 1,000 GW of solar power generating capacity … There is sufficient waste land in the country for the same “

Way back , on 02 Jan 2017 , I wrote ( sent as email to the Policy Makers ) :

[ https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/sun-our-soul-new-sos.html ]

One hour of Sunshine falling on India's land area of 3,000,000 square kilometers , can generate enough electricity to power our nation for ONE year !

Now , most of India gets 6 hours of Sunshine daily for some 300 days in a year !

So , as a nation , we get 1800 hours of Sunshine , every year

If we were to cover our entire land area ( of 3,000,000 sq km ) with Solar Panels , we could get enough electricity in one year ( ie: in 1800 hours ) , which will meet our power needs for 1800 YEARS ! ( about 5000 trillion Kwh ! )

But , at the most , we need to store the Solar power for a few days only ( even if Sun does not come out for a couple of days ) . Certainly not for 1800 years !

So , there is no need to cover up our entire land mass with Solar Panels

A very small fraction need be covered . Say, all roof tops in India ?

Why install small solar power plants on roof tops ?

As in case of my earlier emails , this blog too is being sent to :

narendramodi1234@gmail.com;

38ashokroad@gmail.com;

ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in;

jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in;

piyush.goyal@gov.in;

nitin.gadkari@nic.in;

spprabhu1@rediffmail.com;

smritizirani@nic.in;