Does AAP have a chance to win substantial number of
seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections
?
Not , if we go by a Times of India article by Milan
Vaishnav ( 02 Feb 2014 )
Following is my interpretation of the article :
> CRIME PAYS
What is the
probability of winning election ?
# Only 7 % chance of winning if candidate has
NO criminal case pending
# 22 % chance of
winning if candidate has at
least one case pending !
PROOF ?
Lok Sabha
* 162 MPs have pending Criminal cases , of
which , 76 face " Serious "
charges
State Assemblies
* 31 % of MLAs have pending Criminal cases ,
and 15 % face " Serious "
charges
Moral of the
History ?
Give tickets
to only those candidates who have one - or more - criminal
cases
pending !
> MONEY WORKS
What is the
probability of winning election ?
# Only 1 % chance of winning if candidate
belongs to the poorest 20 %
of the
MPs
# A whopping 25 % chance of winning if
candidate belongs to the richest
20 % of
the MPs !
Moral of the
History ?
Give tickets
to only those candidates who have declared assets of Rs 200
crore or more
> CRIME VS MONEY
# Only 6 % of the POOR ( bottom 20 % )
candidates face Criminal
charges
# Nearly 20 % of the RICH ( top 20 % )
candidates face Criminal
charges
Moral of the
History ?
To ensure 100
% chance of winning, give preference to those candidates ,
who are both
, RICH and CRIMINAL !
I just don't
understand why those AAP aspirants are fighting with Arvind ,
for getting tickets !
In face of such irrefutable / overwhelming
evidence ,
what can the
poor fellow do ?
How about
asking each aspiring candidate to fill in their personal data
in the
following formula ?
(
CC+NSC ) * FBA/BLD + CA/PRA
P =
------------------------------------------
( NPA + NRE ) - PFU
Where ,
P = Probability of winning the election
CC = Number of
Criminal cases pending
CA = Current
Assets ( Rs Crores )
PRA = Rise in
Assets in last 3 years ( % )
NRE = Number of
close relatives
NPA = Number of
times changed political affiliation in past 5 years
NSC = Number of
Scams in which listed
FBA = Number of
Foreign Bank accounts ( not only Swiss banks )
BLD = Number of
PSU Bank loan defaults ( only those above Rs 5 Crores )
PFU = Party
Funds used for Campaign
Why leave candidate selection to human judgment / bias ?
It is high time to introduce some transparency in
candidate selection process
* hemen
parekh ( 10 Feb 2014 / Mumbai )
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