Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Friday, 14 November 2025

Bihar’s 1-crore jobs promise

 


===================================================


Shri Nitish Kumar


Hon’ble Chief Minister of Bihar


Subject: 

Bihar’s 1-crore jobs promise – who will invest the required lakhs of crores?


Pranam Nitishji,


First, accept my congratulations on the emphatic mandate that the people of Bihar

have given the NDA in the 2025 Assembly elections.


Your joint Sankalp Patra has made a historic promise: creation of 1 crore jobs

in 5 years, i.e. about 20 lakh (2 million) jobs every year. News reports even

describe these as “1 crore government jobs” for Bihar’s youth. NDTV+1


As someone who has been writing about jobs, capital and self-employment for

over a decade, I humbly submit a few hard numbers and even harder questions.


1. Updating my 2017 estimates  : 

    how much capital to create one job in 2025 ?

   


In my 2017 blog, “How much Capital to create One job?” I had given rough,

back-of-the-envelope estimates of the capital (fixed + working) needed to create

one livelihood in different activities. myblogepage.blogspot.com


Those 2017 rupee figures can be updated to 2025 by adjusting for the rise in

prices. Between late-2017 and 2025, India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI, base

2012=100) has risen from about 137.6 (Nov 2017) to about 197 (Oct 2025), an

 increase of roughly 43%. www.slideshare.net+1


Using this inflation factor (~1.4×), my earlier numbers become :


Approximate capital needed per livelihood in 2025 (Rs lakh, 2025

 

prices)

 


(rounded; fixed + running capital to get started)

  • Pan / Beedi shop (self-employed) – ₹1.5 lakh (2017: 1 lakh)

  • Tiny grocery shop – ₹4.5 lakh (2017: 3 lakh)

  • Barber / Saloon – ₹7 lakh (2017: 5 lakh)

  • Pharmacy shop – ₹14–15 lakh (2017: 10 lakh)

  • Auto repair garage – ₹28–30 lakh (2017: 20 lakh)

  • Small IT / Internet-based service unit – ₹70–75 lakh (2017: 50 lakh)


For organised manufacturing, recent research by NABARD suggests that capital

required per job in organised manufacturing has risen to about ₹44.6 lakh

per worker by 2023-24 – showing how capital-intensive formal factory jobs

have become. NABARD


Separately, the Government’s own Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes have

so far attracted ₹1.76 lakh crore of actual investment and created about 12 lakh

jobs, implying ~₹14–15 lakh of investment per job on average. DD News+1


So, for formal factory/office jobs in 2025, a realistic capital-per-job band is:

₹15–25 lakh per job (some sectors even higher).

Keep these numbers in mind when we look at the NDA’s 1-crore jobs promise.

2. Scenario 1 – If all 1 crore jobs are Government jobs

News coverage of your manifesto specifically mentions 

“1 crore government jobs” for Bihar’s youth. NDTV+1

 

Let us do a very conservative calculation.

(a) Annual salary burden

Assume an average cost to government of ₹5–6 lakh per employee per

 year


 (covering salary, DA, HRA, allowances, etc. – actually modest for teachers, nurses,

 constables, clerks, etc.).


For 20 lakh new government jobs every year, the additional annual salary bill

builds up as follows:

  • Year 1:

    • 20 lakh new employees × ₹5 lakh ≈ ₹1,00,000 crore/year

  • Year 5 (after 5 batches):

    • 1 crore employees × ₹5–6 lakh ≈ ₹5,00,000–6,00,000 crore/year


Now compare this with Bihar’s finances.


According to the Bihar Budget 2025-26, the state’s: PRS Legislative Research+1


  • Total expenditure (excluding debt repayment) is about ₹2.94 lakh

  •  crore


  • Revenue receipts are about ₹2.61 lakh crore


  • Committed expenditure on existing salaries, pensions and interest is

  • already around 37–42% of revenue receipts. PRS Legislative Research+1


If we add an extra ₹5–6 lakh crore per year in salaries alone (by Year 5), just

for the new 1 crore government employees, Bihar’s annual salary bill would be 2–

3 times the entire current state budget. 


Even with generous central assistance, such a wage bill is fiscally impossible.

 


(b) Fixed capital – buildings, equipment, etc.


Government jobs also need offices, schools, hospitals, police stations,

 furniture, IT systems, vehicles, etc.

Even if we assume a very modest ₹10 lakh of additional capital outlay per

 new government job (buildings, equipment, etc.), the investment needed is:


  • 20 lakh jobs per year × ₹10 lakh


  • = ₹ 2,00,000 crore of capital outlay every year


This is 5 times Bihar’s planned annual capital outlay (~₹40,000 crore in 2025-

26). PRS Legislative Research


Question A for NDA :

 


If all 1 crore jobs are indeed “government jobs”, from where will the new

 

government find

 

  • ₹5–6 lakh crore per year for additional salaries, and

  • ₹2 lakh crore per year for capital outlay,

 

  • when the entire state budget today is below ₹3 lakh crore?


3. Scenario 2 – If all 1 crore jobs are formal private-sector jobs


Suppose the NDA clarifies that most of these jobs will come from private

 factories and offices.


Using the ₹ 15–25 lakh of investment per job band (derived from PLI and

 organised manufacturing data): NABARD+2TeamLease+2


  • Per year (20 lakh jobs):

    • At ₹15 lakh/job → ₹ 3 lakh crore/year

    • At ₹25 lakh/job → ₹ 5 lakh crore/year


So, for the full 1 crore jobs over 5 years, Bihar would need to attract ₹ 15–25

 lakh crore of private (and public) capital investment into the state during

 the next five years.


Question C for NDA:

 


If these jobs are to be created entirely in the private sector, which

 

specific projects, parks, clusters and incentives will attract the required

 

₹3–5 lakh crore of fresh investment every year into Bihar?

 


How much of this is expected from domestic investors, global investors,

 

or central government schemes?


4. Scenario 3 – Self-employment: the only fiscally realistic path


If formal government jobs and large, capital-intensive factory jobs both

demand lakhs of crores that Bihar does not have, there remains a third path:


Massive promotion of low-capital, self-employment livelihoods.

 

From the updated 2025 numbers above, typical self-employment ticket sizes are:

  • Street-vending / pan-shop / small repair – ₹1–3 lakh

  • Tiny grocery / salon / tailoring / food stalls – ₹3–7 lakh

  • Pharmacy / small workshop / agro-processing – ₹10–20 lakh


Even if we assume a :

> weighted average capital need of ₹ 5 lakh per self-employment, 


 the numbers look like this:


  • Per year (20 lakh self-employment jobs):

    • 20 lakh × ₹5 lakh ≈ ₹ 1,00,000 crore/year


This ₹1 lakh crore/year is still a large number, but it is:


  • Far smaller than the ₹3–5 lakh crore/year required for formal private jobs, and


  • Infinitely more realistic than ₹5–6 lakh crore/year of extra government salaries.


And importantly, this ₹1 lakh crore/year need not come from the state budget

 alone:

  • It can be spread across commercial banks, NBFCs, MFIs, SHG-linked

  •  credit, central schemes, and


  • Supported by interest subvention & guarantee schemes from state +

  •  centre.


Therefore, it would be the right and realistic thing for the NDA

 

government to publicly reframe its promise as:

 


“1 crore livelihoods = a mix of self-employment, nano/micro

 

enterprises, and a smaller number of formal jobs.”


5. How Bihar can generate 20 lakh self-employment livelihoods every year

Here are some concrete steps, building on ideas I have been writing about for over a decade:


  1. Bihar Self-Employment Mission (BSEM)

    • A dedicated mission to create 20 lakh new self-employment units

    •  every year.


    • Converge and top-up existing schemes like PM-SVANidhi, MUDRA,

    •  NRLM SHG-credit, PMEGP, etc., with Bihar-specific interest

    •  subvention.


  2. Credit-plus support, not just loans

    • Every sanctioned loan to a nano/micro entrepreneur must be

      • Digitally generated project report (simple, sector-wise

      •  templates),


      • 2–3 days of basic entrepreneurship + bookkeeping training,


      • Plug-and-play platforms for online sales, GST, UPI billing, etc.


    •  accompanied by:


  3. District-wise “Treasure Hunt” for jobs

    • As I argued in “National Jobs Policy: Treasure Hunt”, jobs are “hidden”

    •  in thousands of micro-opportunities across districts.


    • Each district administration should publish a district jobs atlas:

      • Local value chains (agro-processing, dairy, fishery, textiles, tourism,

      •  repair services),


      • Standardised small projects (e.g., cold-rooms, rural BPOs, e-

      • rickshaw fleets, solar pump repair, etc.),


      • Per-unit investment and expected income.


  4. Digital platforms for matching local demand and local entrepreneurs

    • Bihar can pilot a state-wide “Online JobsFair” style platform (which I have advocated for a long time )

      • Match aspiring self-employed youth with local business ideas,

      • Integrate with banks for e-KYC, e-documentation and e-sanction of loans,

      • Use UPI & Aadhaar for transparent subsidy / interest subvention.

    •  I have advocated in several blogs) to:

  5. Priority sectors for nano-entrepreneurship

    • Urban services: e-rickshaw ownership, home delivery, repair services,

    •  home-salons, cloud kitchens.


    • Rural non-farm: agro-processing, storage, packaging, local brands,

    •  dairy & poultry, solar pump maintenance.


    • Digital & IT: common service centres, local e-commerce kiosks, rural

    •  BPO / call centres, etc.


If Bihar consciously targets 15–18 lakh self-employment livelihoods + 2–5

 lakh formal jobs per year, the total capital requirement & salary burden

become manageable and can be shared between state, centre and private

 sector.

6. My earlier blogs on Bihar’s job promises

I have been following Bihar’s employment promises across several elections and

 Governments. For reference, I submit the following earlier blogs (all links

 clickable):

  1. “Bihar’s Promises: Familiar Echo” (2025)


  2.  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2025/10/bihars-promises-familiar-echo.html


  4. “Poll Promise to create 10 lakh jobs” (2020)


  5.  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2020/10/poll-promise-to-create-10-lakh-jobs.html


  7. “National Jobs Policy: Treasure Hunt” (2017)


  8.  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/12/national-jobs-policy-treasure-hunt.html


  10. “How much Capital to create One job?” (2017) – updated above for 2025 prices


  11. https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/06/how-much-capital-to-create-one-job.html

7. A humble request


Nitishji,


Bihar’s youth have voted in record numbers, especially women, trusting the NDA’s

 promise of employment and dignity. The Economic Times


In their name, may I request that the new Government:


  1. Clearly spell out how many of the promised 1 crore jobs will be

    • Government posts,

    • Formal private-sector jobs, and

    • Self-employment / nano-enterprise livelihoods; and


  2. Publish a year-wise, sector-wise investment and employment roadmap, showing:

    • Expected capital inflow (state + centre + private) per year, and

    • Expected number of self-employment units to be created district-wise.


Only then will Bihar’s historic 1-crore jobs promise move from slogan to credible

 plan.


With warm regards,

Hemen Parekh


www.HemenParekh.ai / www.IndiaAGI.ai / www.My-Teacher.in / 15 Nov 2025


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