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Friday 3 July 2015

The Missing Link

MOIA ( Ministry of Overseas Indians Affairs ) has just launched a web site :

www.emigrate.gov.in

Without doubt , a very useful initiative to protect the interests of ( mostly ) , manual workers taking up jobs in Gulf Countries

The site requires registration from :

> Foreign Employers wanting to hire Indian workers for posting abroad

> Indian Recruitment Agencies working on behalf of such Foreign Employers

> Indian Companies taking their workers abroad for executing projects

emigrate.in , even provides some data about approximate prevailing wages that Indian workers may expect to get in a few foreign countries

So , what are the missing links ?

> This web site is meant to be used only by various Government Agencies

and what it calls , " Partners " ( ie : Foreign Employers / Indian

Recruitment Agencies / Indian Project Exporters )

> It does not host searchable databases of ,

* Manual job vacancies available abroad

* Manual workers ( Unskilled / Semi-Skilled / Skilled ) available in India

Now consider the following :

> These days , most every country is facing a slow-down of its economy

> As a result , Foreign Companies are under pressure to cut costs

> To cut costs , these companies are often retrenching employees

> For the same reason , these foreign companies are " Outsourcing "

their " Back-Office Jobs " to India / Malaysia / Indonesia / Philippines etc

> In nearly all countries , unemployment is steadily rising

> As a result , there is a strong resentment against foreign workers

> Since foreign workers work for lesser wages , they are looked upon as

snatching away jobs from native population

> Soon , thousands of illegal migrants from North African countries , who

are currently flooding the European countries - and facing strong local

resistance - will start rushing to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries ,

which are today , primary destinations of manual Indian workers.

For reasons of religion and language , they will score over the Indians

Also consider scenario closer at home in India :

> India adds some 12 million people to its workforce each year

> Of these , some 3.5 million are " Graduates "

> These graduates are unemployable as " Workers " , since they do not

possess any " Manual Skills " ( Carpenter / Electrician / Plumber etc )

> And they don't want to work as " Unskilled Labor " - at home or abroad !

> Some 430 lakhs of them are already registered with 900+ Employment

Exchanges - which can find jobs for only 1 lakh per year !

> These 430 lakh resumes ( applicants ) are unavailable for searching and

short-listing , by any Foreign or Indian Project Employer, visiting ,

www.emigrate.gov.in

> Nor does emigrate.gov.in , carry any searchable listing of jobs abroad,

which these 430 lakh jobseekers can search and directly "Apply Online ",

without having to depend upon the intermediaries ( recruitment agents )

At this stage , it is worth asking ourselves :

> Are there clear - and present - indicators that physical export of Indian

Manual Labour is bound to sharply decline in next 2/3 years ?

> On the other hand , is there a clear opportunity for India's millions of

graduates , to offer their " Digital Back Office Services " to Foreign

companies , who do not face as much resistance to " Outsourcing " as

they do with physical presence of Indians on their own soil ?

Virtual office operations carried out from India and delivered over

Internet , are inconspicuous ! And a god-sent opportunity for

India's teeming self-employed " Freelancers " , who can deliver such

services at globally competitive prices.

> Is it not the right time for Central Government to become "Proactive"

and launch a Virtual Employment Exchange ( VEE ) , as outlined in

" W3F ( World Wide Work Federation ) ",

described on my personal site hemenparekh.in ?

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hemen parekh

04 July, 2015

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Thursday 2 July 2015

Shape of Things to Come ?

In the annals of Robotics , 02 July , 2015 will be remembered

On this day , an assembly line robot , in Germany's Volkswagen factory grabbed and crushed a worker against a metal plate, killing him

It is too early to say whether this was an act of ,

> Human negligence

> Technical failure , or

> Beginning of the Ray Kurzweil's prediction, when the brains of the

Computers and Human beings will merge seamlessly to constitute ,

what he called " Singularity " ( so feared by Elon Musk ! )

Whether - and when - humans will reach such an " Event Horizon " or not , it is high time , Governments of the World , formally adopt and legislate , that the robot manufacturers shall build into their creations, the 3 laws first pronounced by famous science-fiction writer , Isaac Asimov

These laws are :

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.

Now consider this :

> India is already a " Software Super-power "

> Prime Minister , Shri Narendra Modi , launched on 01 July , a Digital

India campaign to transform India's e-Governance and lift millions of

India's poor , out of abysmal poverty

It would be a glorious achievement of India's computer scientists , if they develop and undertake, to supply to the robot manufacturers of the World , a license-free software algorithm , incorporating Asimov's 3 " Laws of Robotics "

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hemen parekh

03 July , 2015

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Tuesday 30 June 2015

Export Strategy ?

News reports are agonizing over the declining figures of exports for the past 6 months - month after month

There is no doubt , among many corrective actions being undertaken by the Central Government , promoting exports from MSME , is one

No need to look far, for a reason for this emphasis

Just look at how much MSME in our neighboring countries are exporting :

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Country / No of MSME / Ave Export / year ( $ )

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Singapore / 9,296 / 6.74 Million

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Malaysia / 28,840 / 2.05 Million

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S.Korea / 2.9 million / 45 , 000

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India / 30 million / 4, 000

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Now , even if each of our MSME succeeds in exporting just $ 40,000 worth of exports per year , that would amount to ,

$ 40,000*30 million !

Currently each MSME ( on an average ) employs 2.5 persons

How many more persons would 30 million MSME need to employ , if each were to raise exports by 10 times ? ( from $ 4000 to $ 40,000 )

It is reported that , even at the current level of operations , India's MSME sector creates 1.3 million jobs every year

For raising (ave) MSME exports by 10 times , would that figure go up to 13 million new jobs / year ?

Enough to absorb the 12 million persons joining our job market each year ?

It is time for re-thinking our Export Strategy

By emulating smaller neighbors , we could solve two problems , at one time !

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hemen parekh

01 July, 2015

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Hire , when you need : Fire , when you don't !

What is the amount of investment required to create 1 Million jobs per month ? ( = No of jobseekers joining India's labour market each month )

That would depend upon the " Industry " for investment

There are some , " Capital Intensive " industries which would require a huge investment , whereas , there are some " Labour Intensive " industries , where a much smaller investment can generate 1 Million jobs

For example , to generate 1 Million jobs would need :

* Industrial Instruments ( Labour Intensive )................... Rs 10,000 Cr

* Boilers / Steam Generating Plants ( Capital Intensive )... Rs 500,000 Cr

{ Source : DIPP , Investment and Job Creation from Aug 1991-Mar 2014

as reported in Times of India / 17 March , 2015 }

Of course , we don't have to create all of those 1 Million jobs per month , in just one or two industries

If we take an " Average Investment " required across ALL the industries , then , may be , we need :

Rs 200,000 Cr to generate 1 Million jobs every month

ie : Rs 2 Lakh*Crores per month

ie : Rs 24 Lakh*Crores every year

Now , who has got that kind of money to invest , even if we assume that

> there is a " Ready Market " for all of those products , here and now ?

> this market will not shrink in the foreseeable future ?

Obviously , the Governments ( Central + States ) , don't !

If we include FDI , may be Private Sector can raise that kind of money

But will it invest in " Capital Intensive " industries or in " Labour Intensive " industries ?

Given the current labour laws , it is clear that the investors will choose to invest in Capital Intensive industries

Even if that means , creation of only 1 Lakh jobs instead of 10 Lakh jobs !

At this point , it is worth researching whether USA succeeds in creating some 150,000 / 200,000 new jobs every month , due to its policy of :

" Hire when you need : Fire when you don't "

Before hiring , do USA industrialists ask of themselves :

" If things go wrong and I am forced to trim my work-force , will this recruit

become a permanent burden ? "

Question that the Labour Laws must answer :

" What comes first ? Creation of new jobs , or , retention of existing jobs ? "

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hemen parekh

June 30 , 2015

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Sunday 28 June 2015

The Greek Tragedy

With a public debt of $ 320 Billion , and unable to raise fresh loans ( to pay off old loans ) , Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy - and exit from Euro-Zone

Dire predictions are being made by the Economists / Bankers / Politicians etc , as to what will be the impact on :

* Other debt-ridden countries like Portugal / Italy / Spain etc

* Economies of the European lender-countries

* Balance Sheets of Financial Institutions ( eg : IMF / European Common Bank etc )

* Economies of Developing countries , unable to export to Europe

But hardly anyone seems to be asking :

* Why did Greece land itself in such a trouble ?

* Will Spain / Portugal / Italy - and other debt-ridden countries - soon find themselves in a similar condition ?

You don't need to have a Ph D in Economics to know the obvious answer !

Greece finds itself in this trouble for the same reason that a person would , if he starts spending far in excess of his income

Usually by borrowing lots of money from friends / relatives , who , oblige without asking :

> What is your current income ? What is your current savings ?

> What is likely to be your future income ?

> What do you need this loan for ? When - and how much - will you repay ?

If there are no satisfactory answers , then you know that either the borrower has no capacity to repay

or , ( worse ) , no intention to repay !

Apparently , Greeks have been living beyond their means ( income ) for many many years

Generation after generation of Greeks thought :

> Let us enjoy today . Why worry about tomorrow ? Let our children worry about that !

The 20+ something Greek youth ( of which , 26 % are unemployed ) , have " inherited " that debt of $ 320 billion , from their fore-fathers

Hence , it is reasonable for them to say :

" Hey , I did not borrow / spend all that money ! Why should I be made to suffer for the sins committed by my parents / grand parents ? "

Problem is not that the lenders cannot accept this argument and agree to , even write-off $ 320 billion

All that the lenders are telling the Greek Youth ( thru Greek Government ) , is :

" No problem , but no more money either ,

Just learn to live within your own income . Learn to fend for yourself .

Stop living on borrowed time ( - and borrowed money ) "

Here , there is a lesson for us Indians , as well !

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hemen parekh / 29 June, 2015

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Tuesday 23 June 2015

Bank Recapitalization ?

Bank Re-Capitalization ?

Here is a layman's understanding :

> Bank executives give Rs 4 Lakh Crores worth loans to Industrialists / Businessmen ( who , sometimes happen to be close relatives / friends )

> Bankers " forget " to examine past records of loan-repayments by these individuals

> Banks do not share among themselves info about " black-listed " borrowers

> Banks " forget " to inquire if a loanee is a " Benami " company

> Banks do not incorporate stringent clauses in loan agreements (on purpose )

> Banks adopt " Forget & Forgive " approach to defaulters

> For loan recovery , bankers wait for other bankers to take the lead

> Before taking action , bankers check-out with people in power

> When sinking under the burden of NPA , bankers run to Government of India to bail them out through " Bank Re-Capitalization "

> Government oblige by giving money to stressed banks, so that they can survive

> Government rationalize its bail out by saying, " depositors must be protected " . Sounds so reassuring !

> Government then goes out and raises taxes ( direct + indirect ) to balance its books ( Current Account Deficit ? )

In a nutshell :

> Eventually , honest tax-payers foot the bill, one way or the other

> 7,000 + loan-defaulting swindlers spend vacation in Switzerland with family ( and their politician friends ) - till they are ready to borrow more !

> Bankers vie with each other to " Re-Schedule Payments " and advance fresh loans to pay off old loans ( Rs 4 lakh Crores of NPA ).

If EU / IMF can do this for Greece , why cannot we ?

> Government will take pride in " Bold Banking Reforms "( to please IMF ? )

> As a Nation , we are very compassionate ! We cannot let any institution die !

We are obsessed with keeping it alive at any cost . We must ,

forever , keep it alive with artificial ventilation / blood transfusion !

It is time to re-think :

When a person or an Institution just cannot be kept alive , it must be allowed to die , in a dignified way !

Would it not be far better to protect the small bank-depositors by returning their deposits , rather than infuse Rs 4 lakh Crores into these banks , by way of re-capitalization ?

Am I missing out on something that economists know better ?

- hemen parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com

www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

June 24 , 2015

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Sunday 21 June 2015

Growing Faster Than China ?

There is no denying that India has made a lot of progress on the economic front during past 12 months , under structural reforms undertaken by the NDA government

But when Economists and leading Rating Agencies talk of " India's economy is growing at a rate , faster than China's " , some clarifications become necessary

Just look at the following comparison between China and India :

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Parameter / China / India

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Population / 1.36 billion / 1.25 billion

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GDP / $ 9.24 Trillion / $ 1.88 Trillion

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Life Expectancy / 75.35 years / 66.46 years

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Area / 9.57 million Sq Km / 2.97 million Sq Km

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Per Capita GDP / $ 6,807 / $ 1,498

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GDP Increase / @ 7% = $ 647 Billion / @ 8% = $ 150 Billion

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Now , of course , it is entirely possible for India's absolute GDP increase to overtake China's absolute GDP increase , if

> China's growth-rate keeps declining ( > 6 % > 5 % > 4 % > 3 % .... )

and ,

> India's growth-rate keeps accelerating ( > 9 % > 10 % > 11 % ......... )

Except that you don't have to be an Economist to guess that no such thing will ever happen !

It is not that I love NDA less

It is just that I love enlightenment more !

--- hemen parekh

www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

21 June 2015

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