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Friday 25 September 2015

TREADING THE BEATEN PATH ?

You may also call it , " Path of the Calf " , a beautiful old poem by ,

Sam Walter Foss ( 1858 - 1911 )

The crooked path that a lonely calf cut through the dense jungle , 100 years ago

Men followed / horses followed / carts followed / vehicles followed

Till it became a Inter State highway !

But still crooked !

Sure , it does take you where you want to go - except it takes a long time !

I was reminded of this while reading a news report which said :

* MUDRA bank has disbursed Rs 24,000 cr to 27 lakh jobless youth to start

micro businesses . On an average , less than Rs 1 lakh per person

* In 2015-16 , it plans to distribute loans to 1.25 crore jobless

* Assuming same ave amount , that would mean Rs 1.25 crore*lakh

Now recall following :

* Some 4.3 crore youth are registered with 900 + Employment Exchanges

of India . Perhaps twice as many have not even bothered to register ,

since it will take 300 years to clear the present backlog , at the rate at

which these exchanges are able to find jobs ! So , a total of 13 crore ?

* Some 40 crore Indians are below the poverty line . Even if only ONE in

FOUR , wants to start a micro business , that means 10 Crore persons in

need of MUDRA loan ?

* So , even if Rs 10 Cr*lakh could be mobilized , it may take 8 / 10 years

to give loans to these 10 / 13 crore jobless !

Now it was only yesterday that , in a meeting with America's top CEOs in New York , Prime Minister Narendra promised to fast-track the decision-making process, acknowledging that ,

" the world is not going to wait for us ".

I have a feeling that crores of jobless Indian youth are also unwilling to wait

for 10 years !

Instead , here is what NDA government need to do :

* Enact " Start Up Act - 2015 " suggested earlier

* Abolish Personal Income Tax for Start Ups registering on web site of

Income Tax department ( must file ZERO TAX return for 10 years )

* No questions asked re source for all investments made in Start Ups ,as

long as this cash gets deposited in the bank account of that Start Up

This will ensure that , within ONE YEAR , 30 crore bank accounts opened under Jan Dhan Yojana , will each get credited with Rs 1 lakh !

Rs 30 Crore*Lakh of BLACK MONEY , will suddenly become WHITE and PRODUCTIVE !

Let us stop trudging along the " Path of the Calf " !

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hemen parekh

26 Sept 2015

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Thursday 24 September 2015

SIMPLE SOLUTION for STEMPEDE ( call it #3S )

Yesterday , some 717 persons died in a stampede during Hajj pilgrimage at Mecca

In 1990 , some 1400 had died at the same place in another stampede

This phenomenon repeats itself at regular interval , at most holy places around the World , but especially in countries with poor arrangements for handling of millions of people , in a small place , over a short time

Saudi Arabia has , over the past few years , vastly improved its facilities for coping with 3 million pilgrims walking thru Mecca , in one week

But , given its vast resources , it can certainly do much better

Stampedes occur when , in a narrow path , some people make a run ( rush ) , for whatever reason , trying to overtake people in front walking normally

The surest - and the safest - way to prevent stampede is :

Simply ensure no one can outrun persons walking in front !

Eminently possible !

Just install , one above another ( vertically ) , several rope-ways with hanging chairs for 2 persons per chair , safely secured by belts

All rope-ways picking up pilgrims at the Boarding Station and then dropping off at the Disembarkation Station , on the opposite side

Each platform on either side of the Rock of Satan

Each rope-way moving at variable speeds controlled by CONTROL ROOM

Pilgrims throwing stones from above on the Rock of Satan , from their chairs

Stones being collected automatically in moving conveyors and delivered to a hopper in the STONE LOADING ZONE , for loading onto the moving chairs

Like a pin-ball machine , each chair carrying 7*2 pre-loaded stones

At other places , this concept of horizontally moving conveyors carrying stationary persons , can be replicated with some variations

Given the wealth of Saudi Arabia , the rope-ways or horizontally moving conveyors , can even be enclosed in air-conditioned glass tubes , from which , pilgrims can view all holy places without leaving their chairs !

And they can throw stones at the Satan , by simply pressing a button on the right hand arm rest of their chair !

This automatic arrangement will make it possible for the Authorities enable sick / old / children to perform the pilgrimage !

It may even attract visitors from all over the World (including non-muslims ) to travel to Mecca , around the year !

Annual income of the Kingdom would go up from $ 4.5 billion to $ 10 billion !

Will Dr Mahesh Sharma ( Minister for Tourism / Govt of India ) , consider this idea for Maha-Kumbh Mela / Tirupati / Sai Dham , Shirdi / Sinhasth Kumbh , Nasik etc ?

May be Shri Narendra Modi , while talking to American CEOs in San Jose today , convince them to come forward with an investment of $ 5 billion at our holy places , to transform Make in India into Incredible India !

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hemen parekh

25 Sept 2015

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Monday 21 September 2015

SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ?

The First Industrial Revolution started in Britain , with the invention of steam engine , which multiplied human power many times

With help of steam engine power , one man could do the job of ten men

Human productivity went up sharply , enabling production of ten times more goods , in ten times less time

Thousands of factories came up ; first in Britain , then in USA and gradually spreading to rest of Europe

But it took over a century to reach the poor countries of Asia / Africa / China

Under colonial rule , these countries were forced to export own raw materials to industrialized countries at a very cheap price and import their factory-made finished goods at very high prices

But as poor countries started catching up on factory-based manufacturing using its cheap labour , the developed countries are now worried !

One time importers of finished goods are now exporting those very products to the developed countries , which are finding it difficult to compete with the emerging markets

An outstanding example of this is the rise of China , in the past 25 years as the , " Factory of the World "

But Western countries are not resigned to their fate of a lowered

" Standard of Living "

They are gearing up to usher :

The Second Industrial Revolution !

In the form of Robots :

Robots manufacturing cars / appliances / machinery / anything

Robots 3 D printing products from designs downloaded from Net

Robots managing health care in hospitals

Robots serving food in restaurants

Robots carrying out office jobs

Robots teaching in schools

Robots entertaining

Robots everywhere !

And these are :

Robots which work 24 hours/day and do not ask for a salary

Robots that do not " go slow "or go on a strike

Robots that do not demand " Quotas / Reservations "

Robots that do not take holidays or take " Sick Leave "

Robots that do not resign / demand promotion

Robots that neither envy other robots nor sabotage

Robots that do not complain against unpleasant work

Robots that do not get tired and need rest

Robots whose production does not drop after working for 8 hours

Robots that do not demand " Overtime Pay " @ 200 % of normal

Robots that perfectly co-ordinate their tasks with other robots

Robots that willingly " retire " at any age , whenever required

Robots that do not demand Unemployment/Retirement Benefits

Robots which may , some day , provide you with emotional support when you are sick / depressed !

And this Second Industrial Revolution is NOT going to take a hundred years to reach the shores of India

With spread of DIGITAL INDIA / Internet / Mobile Apps , it may take , no more than 20 years !

Question :

Fearing that it will create further unemployment , shall we try to stall its arrival ?

OR ,

Will our Self-Employed and Start Ups expedite its arrival and imaginatively use it to create 100 new jobs for each lost job ?

Let us stop tinkering with ,

* The India Aspiration Fund

* The MakeinIndia Soft Loan Fund

* The MUDRA Bank

Converting millions of Job-seekers into Job - Creators , would entirely depend upon Union Government quickly passing , what I earlier advocated as :

Start Up Act - 2015

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hemen parekh

21 Sept 2015

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Saturday 19 September 2015

FROM SINGLE WINDOW TO SINGLE DAY ?

Launch of " Make in India " one year ago ( 25 Sept 2014 ) , ushered a revolution

A revolution to improve India's rank in " Ease of Doing Business " from 142 to under 50

And no Indian State wants to be left behind as far as its own rank among the various States is concerned

Here is the proof :

# Tamil Nadu

CM , Selvi J Jaylalithaa has promised to approve all Investment proposals in 30 days

# Andhra

CM , Shri Chandrababu Naidu wants all clearances given from an Online Single Window clearance , in 21 days

# Telengana

CM , Shri K Chandrasekhar Rao has promised to give a Single Window clearance within 30 days

If the investment is more than Rs 200 Cr , project will be cleared in 15 days

If it is an IT project , it will be 12 days !

For delaying approval beyond these limits , concerned Officer will be fined Rs 1000 per day of delay !

# Maharashtra

CM , Shri Devendra Fadnavis did not want to be left out !

On 17th Sept , he announced :

" If permissions to set up industry are not issued within 7 days through the online Single Window system , applications will be considered approved "

Can we look forward to one of the remaining Chief Ministers , to come forward and announce :

" We will clear all investment proposals in ONE DAY "

[ And , he / she may not even belong to a BJP-controlled State ! ]

That would place that State on par with Singapore ( which continues to hold , rank # 1 , in World Bank Survey , for many years in a row )

Following real incidence will prove my point :

Some 40 years ago , Mohan Pherwani ( VP - Planning / Larsen & Toubro ) , made a presentation to the officers of Singapore Development Authority ( SDA ) , for a joint venture between L&T and SDA , for manufacture of Bottle Closures ( Crown Corks / Alu. Capsules ) in Singapore

After the presentation , a SDA officer took Pherwani to look up suitable sites for setting up the proposed factory

In the evening , when Pherwani returned to his hotel , receptionist handed him a letter from SDA ,

> confirming SDA willingness to form a JV with L&T

> allotting the factory plot selected by Pherwani

> enclosing a cheque ( drawn in favour of L&T ), towards SDA's contribution to the equity capital of proposed JV

Sure , difficult to beat !

But not impossible , considering that the person propelling Singapore's current " Business Friendliness " is also , a person of INDIAN origin !

That person is Mr Tharman Shanmugratnam , Singapore's Finance Minister since 2007 and Deputy Prime Minister since 2011, whom , Shri Jaitley met 2 days back

Among the many good things taking place due to " MakeinIndia " initiative , promoting competition among the States for attracting investments , is right at the very top

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hemen parekh

20 Sept 2015

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Friday 18 September 2015

WHAT NEXT ? UNDISCLOSED INDIAN ASSETS ?

In August 2015 , Lok Sabha passed :

" The Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets Act - 2015 "

The declaration period ends on 30th Sept 2015

It is estimated that undisclosed assets worth Rs 40,000 Crores may get disclosed , netting Union Government , Rs 20,000 Crores by way of tax and penalty. Another estimate places collection at Rs 7,000 cr only

We should know the exact figure by 15 Oct

Peanuts when you compare with estimates of Black Money stashed abroad , at between Rs 1.7 lakh*crores ( $ 250 billion ) and Rs 2.9 lakh*crores ( $ 450 billion )

Some knowledgeable persons are saying :

> During these past 3 months , an amount equal to TEN times what gets

declared , ( ie : Rs 4 lakh*crore ) found its way back into India thru

hawala route and got invested in gold or land or got deposited in bank

lockers

> The total amount of DOMESTIC BLACK MONEY is close to Rs 25

lakh*crores !

So , what next ?

Pass in Lok Sabha , " The Undisclosed INDIAN Income and Assets Act " ?

And , if such Act follows the same pattern ( of 30% tax + 30% penalty ) , then the Union Government may end up with revenue of may be, Rs 40,000 Crores !

It is time to stop wasting time ! Time to stop tinkering !

By the time these Rs 40,000 crores get collected , one more year will pass !

By that time another Rs 4 lakh*crores of FRESH black money , will get generated !

It is like cat chasing its own tail !

The only FINAL / LASTING solution is :

Abolish Personal Income Tax

Simultaneously declare :

No questions will be asked for any amount of cash deposited in bank accounts by individuals ( of course , with linkage to PAN / Aadhar / RuPay card etc )

Sure , Government will lose Rs 2.5 lakh*crores by way of tax revenue,

received from some 3 crore individual tax payers

But , Abolition of Personal Income Tax ( and no questions asked re bank deposits ) , could lead to 30 crore persons , each depositing Rs 1 lakh into their bank accounts !

{ Not unthinkable , considering that during past one year alone , Rs 20,000

Cr got deposited in 20 crore new bank accounts , under Jan Dhan Yojana }

So , we are talking of bank accounts swelling by Rs 30 crore*lakh !

Even if that money earns the depositors , only 3 % rate of interest !

And banks will give out these moneys as loans to Corporate @ 5 % interest rate !

Trillions of BLACK MONEY Rupees will become " Productive Assets "

And , Corporate World ( + our Finance Minister ) would not need to keep begging RBI for a " Rate Cut " to boost the economy !

To keep growing at 10% rate , we have got to make ours , a :

LOW COST ECONOMY

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hemen parekh

19 Sept 2015

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Wednesday 16 September 2015

FREEDOM BEHIND BARS ?

There was no TV , when Allied Army invaded the shores of Normandy on early morning of 6th June 1944

People of the World learned about it 24 hours later thru newspapers

But , in the afternoon of 16 Sept 2015 , the entire World was watching on TV

INVASION OF EUROPE ,

by hundreds of migrants trying to cross the Serbia - Hungary border

Of course , closed gates / 4 meter high barbed wire fence / water cannons and tear gas shells , held back those few hundred refugees

But , for how long , when those few hundred become few thousands ?

Hungary's response :

Passed a law treating illegal migration as a criminal offence

I presume , Hungary will prosecute those thousands of Syrian / Libyan / Iraqi refugees and imprison them on its own soil

A step that would be welcomed by those refugees , even though they have no intention to seek asylum in Hungary !

Getting imprisoned in Hungary will ensure that

> they have a roof on their heads

> they will not die of cold in coming harsh European winter

> their children / infants will not starve

> they will not get killed by wars ravaging their own countries

I expect them to sing :

" Stone walls do not a prison make , nor iron bars a cage "

I hope rest of Europe realizes that no fence can stop millions of migrants marching from its eastern borders and over the Mediterranean sea

They are trying to escape from war / hunger, to peace / food !

But then, this problem will not remain an European Problem alone, for long !

It is bound to get replicated all over the World !

World over, poor people will try to migrate to " Islands of Prosperity " - whether just across the borders or across oceans

In my 08 June blog, I had suggested turning Antarctica into a ,

UNITED STATES OF MIGRANTS ( USM )

But on a serious note :

Russia / Canada / Australia / China / Mongolia / Scandinavian Countries are , relatively prosperous countries

They also happen to have millions of square km of uninhabited - but entirely habitable , land masses

Between them , they should be able to accommodate ,

100 million migrants ,

- and still have population density far below the world average !

It is still not too late for such a constructive - and humanitarian solution !

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hemen parekh

17 Sept 2015

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