Monday, 26 October 2015

ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT SURVEY ?

A faster / cheaper / accurate , alternative to

ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT SURVEY ?

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A Proposal submitted to

* Shri TCA Anant ,

Chief Statistician ,

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,

Government of India ,

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Suggested By :

hemen parekh

mumbai / (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08

hcp@RecruitGuru.com

www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

27 Oct 2015

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I have a database of over 5 million job advts , downloaded over the past 6 / 7 years from various job portals of India

Each job advt database consists of :

Ø Advt ID

Ø Designation ( being advertised )

Ø Company Name ( Advertiser )

Ø Job Description

Ø Desired Profile

Ø Compensation Offered

Ø Experience ( desired ) – Years

Ø Industry Type

Ø Education Quali ( Min )

Ø Location ( Posting City )

Ø Keywords

Ø Advt Posting Date

Ø Expiry Date

Some years back , ( when our website , www.World-Wide-Jobs.com , was up and running ) , we had developed a feature to analyze this database and display the findings visually , in different ways

We were displaying PIE-CHARTS of :

Ø Industry-wise Jobs

Ø City-wise Jobs

You will observe that , with a much larger database available now , it is possible to analyze / display the “ No of Jobs “ , in many more ways

Not only that , it should be possible to analyze this huge database to predict the future expected PATTERN of the occurrence of jobs , in many different ways !

At any given time , the number of jobs getting advertised , is an important Economic Indicator

If economy is booming and company Order Books are getting fatter , then more jobs will get advertized – and vice-versa

Hence , a time-series analysis of the no of new jobs getting posted on job portals , has a straight line relationship with the state of the economy ( a high co-efficient of correlation )

Apart from that , can a Data mining of 5 million jobs , answer ( even partially ) , the following questions ?

Ø Who ( which Companies ) are advertizing and when ?

Ø What jobs / vacancies / positions are being advertized ?

Ø What is the frequency with which a particular job gets advertized ? By entire industry ? By a given Company ?

Ø Which regions / cities have max / min no of new jobs ?

Ø What are regional disparities due to ?

Ø Which Industries are advertising most – creating most jobs ?

Ø What Edu Qualifications are in max demand ?

Ø What kind of jobs demand what kind of Edu Qualifications ?

Ø What is the level of co-relation between , Position and the years of Experience demanded ?

Ø For identical positions being advertized , how much do “ Job Descriptions / Desired Profiles “ differ, from company to company ?

Ø Are there significant differences in the “ No of years of Experience “ being demanded , for identical positions ?

Ø What is the probability of finding the “ Keywords “ in “ Job Description / Desired Profile “ ?

Ø What is the extent of duplication ( redundancy ? ) between , “ Job Description “ and “ Desired Profile “ ?

Ø What percentage of Advts fail to make any mention of , Compensation Offered ?

Ø When a company posts an advt for same / identical position , at different points of time , are there any differences in values ( fields ) ?

Ø From an analysis of all the advts posted by a given Company ( over past 7 years ) , can any conclusion be reached as to the changing nature of that company’s business (by co-relating the “ Skills related Keywords “)?

Ø Can the algorithm predict what job a company will advertize next – and when ?

Ø Is there any correlation between , “ Designation / Position “ and the “ Keywords “ ?

Ø From analyzing this huge data , can software auto-generate , a complete / editable job advt , as soon as a Recruiter simply types the “ Designation / Position “ ?

I believe , so far , no one has undertaken such a Data mining project

If carried out diligently , I am sure , the outcome would be of immense benefit to :

Ø HR Managers

for Manpower Planning / Compensation Planning

Ø Recruiting Managers

for framing Man Specifications / Job Description Manuals

Ø Educationists

for deciding what Edu Quali are in demand and tailor the Courses

Ø Students

to figure out what “ Skills “ are in demand by Industry and prepare

Ø Planning Commission ( NITI Aayog )

for allocating Resources to States / Regions , based on imbalances

Ø HRD Ministry

For long term Macro-Planning in respect of Education

Ø National Skills Development Commission

for chalking out Skills Development Programs in collaboration with Companies / Industries

If undertaken – and executed seriously – then this Data mining project has the potential to place

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,

on the Centre-Stage of National Education Planning Scenario

What can / will such a project yield ?

Without exaggerating , it would be safe to assume that , this vast database of job advts would contain :

Ø 50 million phrases / sentences

Ø 500 million words

Obviously , each word / phrase / sentence , is nothing more than a

“ Database of Intentions “ of the Employer Companies

( to borrow from John Battelle’s well-researched book about Google )

Our goal shall be to make this ( Data mining Algorithm ) a dynamic / continuous “ Process “ , so that , we can measure the changing nature of these “ Intentions “ , over a long , long period

And we must enable a “ Researching Visitor ( of web site ) “, to benefit from these trends / patterns

Even though 5 million job advts may contain 500 million “ words “ , these are not Unique

Most of these are used again and again , hundreds or thousands of times

Thru data mining , it is not difficult to compute their “ Frequency of Usage “

And then , these frequencies can be graphically plotted against any particular time-period

Such Graphical Representations can be further broken up by ,

Ø City Names

Ø Company Names

Ø Industry Names

Ø Function Names

Ø Designations ( Vacancy Names ).. etc

And such graphical analysis can be done , not only for “ Keywords “ but even for “ Key Phrases “ and “ Sentences “ !

Take a look at this project paper ( NOT ENCLOSED )

It is all about data mining of some 150 million records ( location points ) and about uncovering “ trends / patterns “ of physical movements of 300 human volunteers , over a “ period of time “

I quote from article in Times of India ( 19 July 2013 ) :

“ ..the first system of its kind to predict long term human mobility in a unified way , parse the data. " Far Out " does not need to be told exactly what to look for --- it automatically discovered regularities in the data “

“ Do you know precisely where you’ll be 285 days from now at 2 pm ?

Researchers have developed a new tracking software that can tell you exactly where you will be on a precise time and date , years into the future “

What we want to do with 5 million job advts database , is quite similar, viz ;

predict ,

WHO ( which Company / Industry ) , will advertize

WHAT ( vacancies / positions / designations ), and

WHEN ( time )

I am talking about developing an “ Expert System “ , thru discovery of specific “ Co-relations “ amongst various Data Fields of 5 million job advts

Eg :

Ø What is the Co-relation between , any given

Ø “ Designation / Vacancy-Name / Advertized Position ,

and

Ø Educational Qualifications ?

Here are some examples :

Ø Any designation such as “ Production Manager “ would call for an “ Engineering Degree / Diploma “ ( but never a CS / CA )

Ø Any designation in “ Finance Function “ will require,

· B Com

· M Com

· CA etc

But never a BE(M ) / BE (Chem )

Ø Any designation at Manager level will call for a minimum experience of 5 years ( but never a Fresh Graduate with NIL experience )

Ø MBA / BBA / MMS etc are the most preferred Edu Qualifications for positions in Marketing

Ø No vacancy in an Automobile Manufacturing Company , will call for a degree in Pharmaceutical

Ø No Electrical Machinery Manufacturing company will ever demand a Medical Degree (MBBS )

To a human mind , these ( rules ) are so obvious !

But , no human mind can write-down ALL of such RULES , in 2 minutes ! – something that your Data mining Software can – and will – do in 5 seconds !

All that you need , after computing “ Frequencies of Occurrences “ , is to :

Ø Plot the Co-efficients of Co-relations between various Fields ( of job advts )

Ø Compute Probabilities for each and create hundreds of Probability Tables

And , since a thousand new job advts are getting added to our Job Advt Database , daily , the SAMPLE SIZE is perpetually increasing – thereby , increasing the Accuracies of your Predictions !

Having done this , imagine the following scenario :

Recruitment Officer of Wipro , comes to our “ Post Job “ page and , in the field for “ Designation “ simply types ,

“ Business Analyst “

And Presto !

The entire Job Advt Form gets auto-filled , with MOST PROBABLE values !

Would not that amaze her ?

All that our software has done is analyzed job advts of all “ Software Companies “ ( an Industry ),– and of WIPRO – for the position of Business Analyst and filled in the most probable values

This is no rocket science !

We had actually , partially attempted it – albeit in a crude way – in our earlier web site , www.IndiaRecruiter.net

What surprises me is , how come no one has attempted this so far !

Especially , Naukri / TimesJobs / MonsterIndia , who have accumulated millions of job advts !

Anyway , the fact that they have , so far , ignored this Line of Examination , will work to the advantage of

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

– making YOU the very first person in the entire world to come up with a PREDICTION MODEL in the area of JOBS

However , without applying some simple data mining tool , it would not be possible to answer the following questions :

Where is the greatest decline of jobs being advertized ?

How much is the percentage decline ?

Ø In which Industry ?

Ø In which Company ?

Ø In which City ?

Ø In which Region ?

Ø In which Skills ?

Ø For which Positions ?

Ø For which Education Levels ? ………… etc

With a data mining tool , such individual graphs could emerge ( within fraction of a second ) at the click of a button !

One could even co-relate these graphs with other ,
publicly available statistical data such as :

Ø IIP ( Index of Industrial Production )

Ø Stock Market Index

Ø Currency Exchange Rate ( eg; declining Rupee )

Ø Decline in GDP / Increasing Fiscal Deficit

Ø CAD ( Current Account Deficit )

Ø Foreign Investments

Ø Primary Bank Rates of RBI…………………………….etc

With proper co-relations , one could even predict how much the job market will further shrink , over the next 6 months ! or grow ?

Such” Predictive Model of Job Market “, would be of immense interest to , not only the economists but also to the HRD Ministry / Planning Commission / Educational Institutions and of course the students themselves

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Make Yourself Heard

Dear Visitor :

It is time for YOU to speak up - and demand that YOU are heard

By emailing this suggestion - incorporating your OWN improvements - to the following Policy Makers

( Just multiple copy all the following Email IDs into the Recipient column of your Outlook and Copy / paste this suggestion in the Message Box ) :

narendramodi1234@gmail.com; 38ashokroad@gmail.com;ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in; jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in;piyush.goyal@gov.in;nitin.gadkari@nic.in; spprabhu1@rediffmail.com;bandaru@sansad.nic.in;smritizirani@nic.in;nsitharaman@nic.in; ravis@sansad.nic.in;sureshprabhu@irctc.co.in;prakash.j@sansad.nic.in;secy-ipp@nic.in; amitabh.kant@nic.in; shaktikanta.das@nic.in; rsecy@nic.in; adhia1981@gmail.com; ceo-niti@nic.in; atul-chaturvedi@nic.in; uma.bharati@sansad.nic.in; d.pradhan@sansad.nic.in; rprudy.office@gmail.com; rudypr@rediffmail.com; eam@mea.gov.in; mosvks@mea.gov.in; mvnaidu@sansad.nic.in; mnaqvi@sansad.nic.in; rao.inderjit@sansad.nic.in; mljoffice@gov.in; sadananda.gowda@sansad.nic.in; ministerminority@gov.in; najmah@sansad.nic.in; minister-ca@nic.in; ramvilas.paswan@sansad.nic.in; gandhim@sansad.nic.in; akumar-alpha@sansad.nic.in; jpnadda@sansad.nic.in; hm.moca@nic.in; geete@sansad.nic.in; simratbadal@yahoo.com; ns.tomar@nic.in; rmsingh@sansad.nic.in; tc.gehlot@sansad.nic.in; dr.harshvardhan@sansad.nic.in

Sunday, 25 October 2015

NO INTERVIEWS FOR B / C / D ?

Hon PM , Shri Modiji has announced that , starting 01 Jan 2016 , there will be no interviews for recruitment in B / C / D categories of employees in Central Government

Wednesday, 21 October 2015

HONEY , I SHRUNK THE EVM !

EVM = Electronic Voting Machine

In my earlier blog ( 18 Aug 2013 ) , I had suggested that all Elections ( National / State / Municipal / Panchayat ) , be conducted using a Mobile App called,

VotesApp

http://www.hemenparekh.in/2013/08/votesapp.html#.WuF07siFPcc

Idea was to shrink the EVM to a personalized Mobile , which , everyone carries in his pocket

Entire process of how this App will work , is described in my blog

Now you may ask :

HOW WILL IT HELP ?

* No need for 930,000 polling booths / EVMs / Ink / Papers etc

Every voter's own mobile becomes a miniature EVM !

Any registered Voter can vote from anywhere in the World !

* Nor any need to deploy 1,100,000 people to conduct the polls

* No need for millions of Police / Military personnel

* No need for months of advance preparations, across entire country

* Voting can be completed in just ONE day - instead of over 6 weeks -
and results can be declared next day !

* Voting could be 95 % or more !

* No worry for booth-capture

* No bogus voting ( Bio-metric ID from built-in camera )

* No duplicate voting ( Self-destruct after single usage )

* No worry for any terrorist attacks

* Enormous saving of time for Voters

* No need to declare a public holiday - costing thousands of crores
worth of production

* Central Government will save, at least , Rs 2,000 Crores .

* For the Central Government , a potential to earn Rs 20,000 crores , by

enabling 15 million Indian businesses to advertise to 814 million voters

thru this mobile VotesApp ,

sharply targeting by Gender / Age / Marital Status / City / Street /
Education / Income Tax paid / Employed or Jobless ..etc

* No need for Central Government to stop taking even routine decisions

( due to Model Code of Conduct )

If a tiny country like Estonia ( population 1.6 million ) can elect its Members of Parliament thru a VotesApp type mobile App , why can't we ?

Already 900+ million Indians have mobiles - all of which , will soon become Smart Phones

As far as designing / developing of VotesApp is concerned , it is NOT a Rocket Science

Any IT / E-Comm Start Up , should be able to develop VotesApp in 3 months

On this Dussehara day , can you think of a better way for Good to prevail over Evil ?

A better way for " E-delivery of Service " ?

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hemen parekh

22 Oct 2015 ( Dussehara )

B2BmessageBlaster

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Make Yourself Heard

Dear Visitor :

It is time for YOU to speak up - and demand that YOU are heard

By emailing this suggestion - incorporating your OWN improvements - to the following Policy Makers

( Just multiple copy all the following Email IDs into the Recipient column of your Outlook and Copy / paste this suggestion in the Message Box ) :

Monday, 19 October 2015

TEN MILLION ENTREPRENEURS ?

Each year , India adds 12 million youth to its work-force

Only 2 million get jobs , leaving 10 million to fend for themselves

Eking out a " subsistence living " , these 10 million are euphemistically called,

> Self Employed

> Start-Ups

> Entrepreneurs

There is an urgent need to go beyond rhetoric / lip service / tinkering , to empower them , to become REAL entrepreneurs

I have explained how this can be done in my earlier blog :

THE NEW ECONOMIC ORDER / START UP ACT , 2015

( read at.....hemenparekh....in > blogs )

Some naysayers are bound to say :

" But entrepreneurship cannot be taught

Either it is in your blood or it is not "

Then they will try to support their argument by citing Bania communities

Accepting this argument , would be a defeatist attitude !

Here is how we can produce a generation of ENTREPRENEURS , 5 years from now ( if we start NOW ) :

* Introduce " Entrepreneurship " as an mandatory subject in High Schools

and Colleges

* Each such School / College to be " Adopted " by a Corporate ( CSR ? )

* Each adopting Corporate will bear the full expense of running this

course ( Teachers' Salaries etc )

* Such expense to be tax-exempt ( or offset as Corporate CSR obligation )

* Exams to be in the form of presentation by teams of final year students

on,

" HERE IS A BUSINESS I PLAN TO START "

* Presentations to be judged by Panels of Venture Capitalists / Angel

Investors / Incubators etc

* Winning teams ( 1st / 2nd / 3rd prize ) , to be offered funds by the

Panel Members ( as seen in some TV programs )

Fund amounts should be small ( Max Rs 100 lakhs ) and preference to

be given to projects involving healthcare / education / manufacturing /

agriculture / food processing etc

* Winning Teams , setting up Start Ups with these VC funds , to be

encouraged to hire graduating students from the non-winning teams

This " encouragement " to be in the form of reimbursement of salaries of

such hires ( only such hires ), under " Employment Generation Subsidy "

from concerned State Government , where this Start Up gets registered ,

since , employment is a State Subject

Such Salary-reimbursements will be for first 3 years of Start Up

To create an entire GENERATION of ENTREPRENEURS , we need to start at the roots

Some years later , when this FIRST generation becomes parents of their own 10 year olds , those SECOND generation youngsters will have entrepreneurship in their genes !

This is one way of preparing a GM ( genetically modified ) Generation , to which , there ought to be all round support

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hemen parekh

20 Oct 2015

B2BmessageBlaster

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Make Yourself Heard

Dear Visitor :

It is time for YOU to speak up - and demand that YOU are heard

By emailing this suggestion - incorporating your OWN improvements - to the following Policy Makers

( Just multiple copy all the following Email IDs into the Recipient column of your Outlook and Copy / paste this suggestion in the Message Box ) :

Sunday, 11 October 2015

3 D - Digital Delivery of Drugs ?

( let us call it , " Dispenser " )

On 14th Oct , 8 lakh pharmacy stores will go on strike to persuade Government to prohibit sale of " Prescription Drugs " by e-Pharmacies such as 1mg.com / Zigy.com , not to speak of e-Com sites like Amazon / SnapDeal / Flipkart etc

Reason advanced :

* Online sale puts consumers at risk

Real reason ?

* Loss of jobs of 4 million persons employed by 800,000 pharmacy stores

* Loss of business worth Rs 80.000 Crores

Current legal provision :

* Drugs and Cosmetics Act,1940 does not prohibit online sale of medicines

Govt response :

* Set up a Committee to draft new provisions in Law to regulate online sale

My take :

* One day , everything will be sold online from web sites 10,000 Km away !

* There is no way march of EVERYTHING ONLINE can be stopped or slowed

My Suggestions :

* Govt to upload a Mobile App ( DISPENSER ? ) on Health Ministry web site

* All doctors must download it , after proper registration / authentication

* App will get embedded with full details of that doctor who uses it

* Doctors to enter Patient Data in App / then enter prescribed Drug Details

* Doctor will SMS app data entered , to concerned patient's mobile

* Patient will SMS entered app data to mobile of Chemist of his choice

* Chemist will deliver the medicine to the patient with Bill Details in App

* Every action / transaction on App , will get automatically emailed to web

Servers of

# Health Ministry

# All India Medical Association

# All India Organization of Chemists and Druggists ( AIOCD )

# Drug Controller General of India

Advantages :

* Jobs / business of Chemists / Druggists saved

* Great convenience for patients / no need to visit Drug Store

* No chance of Chemist " misinterpreting " doctor's handwriting !

* Full History of

# Each Patient ( great benefit to Prescribing doctors )

# Each Drug ( great benefit to Pharma Companies )

# Each Chemist Shop ( great benefit to Govt / AIOCD / Tax Dept )

# Each Doctor ( great interest to All India Medical Association )

Of course , I have no answer for those who will oppose my suggestion by saying :

" What if either the Patient or the Doctor or the Chemist , does not have a Smart phone ? "

My only answer :

For the benefit of millions , let us harness the Online Delivery technology

That is the only way DIGITAL INDIA can benefit the entire society

Solutions to all the problems of the World are known

Only Unknown are those dedicated persons determined to implement !

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hemen parekh

12 Oct 2015

B2BmessageBlaster

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Make Yourself Heard

Dear Visitor :

It is time for YOU to speak up - and demand that YOU are heard

By emailing this suggestion - incorporating your OWN improvements - to the following Policy Makers

( Just multiple copy all the following Email IDs into the Recipient column of your Outlook and Copy / paste this suggestion in the Message Box ) :