Last evening, TV channels showed the traditional "
Halwa Ceremony " in the Finance Ministry building
With this , the process of preparing / printing of the
Union Budget starts
The people involved will stay " imprisoned /
incommunicado " till FM completes his budget speech on 29th Feb , to
ensure that the budget provisions do not leak out
That does not stop the experts ( - and some non-experts
like me ) , to make predictions such as :
* Revising
limits for personal Income Tax slabs
* Reducing rates
for TDS
* Rationalizing
procedures ( assessment scrutiny / tax refunds / tax litigations etc )
* Launching new
Schemes / Funds for savings and investments
* Increase /
decrease of Excise rates on products ( watch out smokers and drinkers ! )
* Increase /
decrease of Import Duties on products to protect local industries / stop
dumping from China
* Recapitalization
of Banks ( to write-off Rs 7 lakh*crore of NPA with tax payers money )
* Write-off DISCOM
debts of Rs 4 lakh*crores by passing the buck to State Governments ( tax payer
burden ? )
* Write off
loans to farmers - what with elections looming in 5 States ( but I support this
)
News papers report that the Government have received budget
suggestions from some 7,000 persons and that
, this time around , Prime Minister himself is closely involved in the budget
making exercise
Now , with all this obsession / seriousness / paranoia
, surely this secrecy surrounding the budget document , cannot be a laughing
matter !
Unless you ask ,
* some foreign software geeks ( eg: Sundar Pichai /
Satya Nadela / Vivek Ranadive / Ray Kurzweil etc )
* some Indian BIG DATA ANALYTICS
geeks ( Mukund / Krishnan / Sanjay / Srikant / Raj / Anurag etc )
Because , if you do , they will laugh and tell you :
" Just give
us the actual budget documents of the past 60 years ( including the accompanying
budget speeches ) and we will process these documents using Big Data Analytics
software and predict what will be the provisions in the forthcoming budget (
with a probability of 99.7 % - ie ; plus or minus THREE standard deviation )
And then , we will process those past budget speeches
with a PARAPHRASING software ( ala Kurzweilai.net ) and give you an advance
print-out of Shri Arun Jaitleyji's speech on 29th Feb "
But of course , Shri Jaitleyji could cheat the
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS , by announcing following unpredictable :
* Total
Abolition of Personal Income Tax ( or at least , reducing incremental tax rates
in each higher slab )
* Decreasing Incremental
Corporate Tax Rates , linked with each higher slab of " Permanent Employee
Number "
* Perpetual
Amnesty Scheme for all CASH deposits made in Jan Dhan Accounts , if invested in
tax-free Infra SPVs
* Transfer of
1.8% of GST (from 18%) into buyers' PPF a/c , to ensure all citizens get PPF
a/c for tax-free savings
This amount to be used for paying premium for
COMPREHENSIVE HEALTH INSURANCE to cover all illnesses
* Introduction
of plastic Currency Notes of Rs 500/1000, embedded with micro RFID sensors (
stop Black Money )
Surest way
to ensure that almost all payments are made thru official channels !
* Introduction of BTT ( Bank Transaction Tax ) @
2% to yield Rs 15 lakh*crore of revenue ( against revenue loss
of Rs 2.5 lakh*crores caused by abolishing
Personal Income Tax )
Now such announcements , besides being "
Unpredictable " , would meet Shri Narendra Modiji's following announcement
at Make in India week on 13th Feb :
" There is no time for incremental
changes . We want a quantum jump "
Dear Shri
Jaitleyji :
How about an "
Incremental Quantum Jump " by
* Announcing these unpredictable on 29 Feb
2016
* Spreading out actual implementation over the
next 5 years
That could be the
surest way to win 300 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections !
Any other budget
provision / announcement , would be a laughing matter
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemenparekh.in / blogs
20 Feb
2016
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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