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Thursday 25 February 2016

TRASH the CASH ?

A report in Business Line ( 25 Feb 2016 ) , reads :

" Centre wants Indians to abandon cash and make digital payments "

The report lists following measures announced by NDA govt on 24 Feb :

* Withdrawal of surcharge / service charge / convenience fee on card / digital

payments , currently imposed by govt departments

* Payments beyond a prescribed threshold only in card / digital mode

* Rationalize telecom service charges for digital financial transactions

* Promote mobile banking

* Create assurance mechanisms for quick resolution of fraudulent transactions

* Review payment ecosystem in the country

To make it easy for people to make digital payments , Government has already installed :

* Electronic Clearing Service Scheme

* National Electronic Funds Transfer

* Real Time Gross Settlement Scheme

* Direct transfer of Subsidies to bank accounts of benefeciaries

* Providing RuPay debit cards

* Allowing setting up of Payment Banks

Surely , all of these steps will make it EASY for people to GRADUALLY switch over to making digital payments

But , if the HIDDEN AGENDA of the Government behind all of these initiatives , is to reduce / eliminate the scourge of BLACK MONEY ( always and entirely CASH ) , then the only initiative which will COMPEL people to " TRASH the CASH " and move over to digital payments in a HURRY, is my oft-repeated suggestion as follows :

* Discontinue paper-based currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000

* Introduce plastic currency notes of Rs 500 / 1,000 which are embedded with RFID sensors ( far thinner than a human hair ! ) , always broadcasting their presence to Internet of Things ( IoT )

* Assign to each such note, a IP V 6.0 address , linked to its unique note number

* Set up a IT-enabled Technology Platform which will constantly monitor any accumulation of Rs 500 / 1000

RFID embedded notes in excess of Rs ONE CRORE within an area of ONE square meter

If there is a political will , technology can bring this revolution in 6 months !

Can we expect Shri Jaitley-ji to conclude his Budget speech on 29 Feb , with this announcement ?

The applause that follows will be heard around the World !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

26 Feb 2016

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Age of Automation

Two days back , White House Council of Economic Advisers ( CEA ) released a report which predicts the probability ( likelihood ) of automation taking away jobs from humans

As per CEA Chairman Jason Furman , the risk of having your job effectively taken over by a robot " varies enormously based on what your salary is "

In other words, the more skilled , creative and high-earning you are , less likely your job will be taken over by automation

CEA's preditions ( of jobs being taken over in USA ) , are as follows :

* For hourly wage below $ 20............................. 83 % chance

* For hourly wage between $ 20 and $ 40........... 31 % chance

* For hourly wage above $ 40............................ 4 % chance

PROOF

In USA , manufacturing jobs have declined by more than 7.2 million ( or 37 % ) , since 1979

In 1965 , manufacturing accounted for 53 % of the US economy

By 1988 , it accounted for for only 39 %

In 2014 , it accounted for less than 9 %

In India , manufacturing's contribution to GDP is currently 16 % , which NDA government wants to raise to 25 % by 2020

WAS THIS FORESEEN ?

Way back in 1950 , Norbert Weiner wrote in his famous book ( The Human Use of Human Beings ) :

" Let us remember that the automatic machine , whatever we think of any feelings it may have or may not have, is the precise economic equivalent of slave labor

Any labor which competes with slave labor, must accept the economic conditions of slave labor

it is perfectly clear that this will produce an unemployment situation, in comparison with which the present recession and even the depression of the thirties will seem a pleasant joke

This depression will ruin many industries - possibly even the industries which have taken advantage of the new potentialities

However , there is nothing in the industrial tradition which forbids an industrialist to make a sure and quick profit , and to get out before the crash touches him personally "

No wonder , Father of Cybernetics , had foreseen the future !

LESSONS FOR INDIA ?

* At a salary of $ 2 / hour ( approx Rs 28,000 per month ) , can our " Semi-Skilled " workers compete with the " automatic machines " of USA ?

{ Any labor which competes with slave labor, must accept the economic conditions of slave labor }

* At a monthly income ( not " Salary " ) of $ 10 / hour ( approx Rs 138,000 per month ) , can our highly skilled engineers , take over those " creative " US jobs ?

I am sure they can if we shift our focus from " Job seekers " to self - employed , " Job creators " ( There is just NO WAY , we can create 12 million jobs per year )

IS THIS POSSIBLE ?

Of course ! Just abolish Personal Income Tax and witness the miracle !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

26 Feb 2016

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Wrong Language / Wrong Message

Whereas there are many sympathizers of the " Jat Andolan " that rocked the country recently , let us ponder the following :

WRONG LANGUAGE

* Some anti-social elements among the agitators destroyed property worth

Rs 34,000 Crores . 19 persons got killed . Delhi stood paralyzed

WRONG MESSAGE

* Not yet but should the Committee headed by Shri Venkaiah Naidu find a way

to provide to the Jats , a quota of reservations , then that would send out the

following message to dozens of other economically backward communities

which are currently agitating for their own reservation quotas , in a peaceful

manner :

" When it comes to getting your rightful dues , violence is the only language

that this government understands ! Bapu's " Satyagraha " may have given us

freedom from the British in 1947 , but it does not work well with our own

elected representatives in 2016 "

Believe me , Patidars of Gujarat and Marathas of Maharashtra , are going to

watch every move / deliberation / statement of Shri Naidu !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

26 Feb 2016

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Tuesday 23 February 2016

Exporting Manpower ?

Our exports have been falling, month after month , for the past 18 months in a row

But this is not unique to India

With rapidly shrinking World Trade , exports of nearly all countries around the world are falling

Barring a few exceptions , economies of all the countries are declining

So , it came as a surprise to read a news report ( BL / 20 Feb ) , that , despite the fact that Malaysia has 2.1 million registered foreign workers and 1.7 million illegal foreign workers , it signed a deal with Bangladesh to hire another 1.5 million Bangladeshi workers , over the next 3 years !

As expected, local trade unions have criticized this deal

Now let us not start putting together a strategy for Manpower Export , despite the fact that of all the countries in the World , India has the largest number of its citizens working abroad ( legal + illegal )

I believe , close to 22 million persons of Indian origin , with some 7 million in Gulf Countries

But trade unions and political parties everywhere are vehemently opposed to migrant workers who take away jobs from local residents

Even EU , which accepted some 1 million refugees from war-torn Syria / Iraq / Afghanistan , in 2015 , have started repatriating what it terms as " Economic Migrants " seeking " better life " in EU , as distinct from political refugees

But that is not stopping 3000 such " refugees "(political or economic), from forcing their way into EU , every day !

Within India , we have seen in the past ( and continue to witness , currently ) , economically backward people ( euphemism for " poor " ) , migrating to cities in other relatively affluent States , in search of livelihood , occasionally . causing resentment among local citizens

So far , such inter-state migrations have not caused any serious problem because of our Unifying forces of religion / language / culture / heritage / traditions and our Constitution

But with annual addition of some 12 million persons (including some 3.5 million graduates ), to our legions of job seekers , things could get ugly - especially since neither the Public nor the Private sector , can create this many jobs every year !

We need to find ways in which these millions can become " Self Employed "

I hope that each and every announcement that Shri Jaitley makes in his budget speech on 29 Feb , would lead to creation of " Self Employment " in the economically backward States of India

With most of our States being the size of many EU countries , we may not be in a position to Export Manpower , even across our State boundaries , forget across the International borders !

For Indian Federal structure to hold together , we must work on the double to reduce inequality between States !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

24 Feb 2016

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Tech World turning imagination real

In ( 23 Feb 2016 ) Hindustan Times , this is the title of a news report in section " Technology "

A part of it talks about " 3D Printed Couture " in following words :

" Designer Anouk Wipprecht has created an open-source movement , which lets you work with them , and millions of other people across the World , to print your own 3D clothes , while another designer Danit Peleg boasts of designing textiles and manufacturing clothes , all from her home printer

With several techniques added to 3D printing to create wearable technology, your clothes can even react with your body needs to bring in new colour , or even change shape as you gain / lose weight "

Now spare a few minutes to read my following blog , posted just 10 days back ( 13 Feb 2016 )

I am no time-traveler and maybe it is time to stop looking beyond to day !

A BBC TV report last evening talked about the Chinese Manufacturers having developed machines that can carry out traditional Indian " Chikankari " embroidery on a saree within one hour what takes poor women of Lucknow, close to a hundred hours !

And they are dumping these sarees in the Indian Market at one fourth the price !

Some 5 lakh poor women in UP are in danger of being obsolete !

DIPP is planning to equip some 100 " Innovation Centres " at University Campuses across India , with 3D printers

How about some Indian Start Up developing a technology to 3D Print " Chikankari " sarees and make these software / hardware available to these poor women, to beat the Chinese at their own game ?

hemenparekh.in/ blogs

24 Feb 2016

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13 Feb 2015

HOW FAR SHOULD WE SEE ?

The rate at which innovations are continuously happening all around us , we need not look very far !

In the internet age , the " Slow " ( to adapt ) will get overtaken by the " Fast & Nimble "

Even the " Big " will get left behind by the " Small "

How long before textile scientists come up with a fabric that does not require " Stitching " to make garments ?

May be a fabric that can be " welded " or " glued " to form a garment ?

And a automated assembly-line where :

* Fabric is fed at one end

* Glue ( or a welding wire ) , is fed at intermediate stages

* Fabric gets cut into pieces as per online personalized " designs " ordered by visitors of Amazon / Flipkart /

Snapdeal etc

What would this do to the manufacturers of domestic / industrial sewing machines and threads ?

And then what would happen to such automated garment-making assembly lines when people install 3D Printing Machines in their homes ? - machines that can print garments as per designs downloaded from Net ?

Far fetched ?

Not if you have heard of Shanghai-based company WinSun , which recently constructed 10 concrete houses ( 5 stories each ) , overnight , using a 3D Printing Machine which is 6 meter tall , 10 meter wide and 40 meter long !

If invited to set up country-wide operations in India , I have no doubt WinSun can transform our Housing Construction Industry thru technology transfer

In turn , NDA Government can fulfill its promise to construct 50 million affordable houses by 2020

I hope this message reaches Shri Narendra Modi / Shri Venkaiah Naidu / Shri Nitin Gadkari

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

16 Feb 2016

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International Exchange Program

We have all heard about these programs under which , ( for example ) students from India would go to USA , spend a few weeks with American families and even attend local universities

In turn , American students would spend similar period in India ( may be , with the parents of those Indian students who went to USA ) and attend Indian Colleges

In the process , both groups learn the customs / traditions / life-styles of their host Societies

I suppose , they also learn quite a lot about the Education Systems of host countries

Which would include , academic pursuit and teaching methods

But , above all , they would learn how the students behave in the class rooms and how the teachers maintain discipline

I believe , it must be a " Shocking " experience for those Indian students to find that professors in USA wield unimaginable power , unfettered by the Dean or Chancellor of those colleges

Eg :

* A professor's is the final word in the evaluation of any student ( no court of higher appeal )

* Quite a lot of that evaluation is based on the number and the quality of questions asked by the students

* " Shot-gun " exams are a teacher's way of judging the progress of the students

* If any student absents from class room without a satisfactory reason ( ie satisfactory to the subject teacher ),

the teacher can simply tell him to stop attending the classes ! Heavy rains or snow storm does not count ! And

the Dean cannot question the professor's decision

* Teachers don't prescribe any text books , but they may suggest a dozen books to refer to

* Many teachers just " refuse to teach " ! They insist that the students come to class , having " self taught " the

subject and the class room is only for the purpose of "solving difficulties" faced by students while self-teaching !

* Emphasis is not on a student remembering the exact mathematical equation but on knowing which equation to

use !

Hence , most professors will allow a student to look up any book during an exam !

* Even arriving at the exact / precise " answer " is not considered important . It is your " approach " to solving a

problem that counts more .

Were you able to suggest a non-traditional and distinctly innovative " approach " ?

MORAL OF THE STORY :

How about Shri Narendra Modiji ( himself , a champion of " Out of Box " thinking ) , signing an " Exchange Agreement " with President Obama , under which , a batch of 40 Indian Legislators ( to begin with , opposition members of Rajya Sabha ) , are deputed to USA for 6 months ( or till GST Bill gets passed ? ) to attend the sessions of US Congress / Senate , to learn / imbibe their ways of conducting official business ?

Of course , our deputed legislators must be paid a " Copycat-ing Allowance " of $ 100 per day while in USA !

After all , cafeteria in American Congress building does not provide " dosas " @ Rs 2 per piece !

While readily agreeing to the Indian request , it is quite possible that President Obama may politely decline to send the American Legislators to attend our Lok Sabha / Rajya Sabha's budget session ! Entirely understandable !

Dear Shri Venkaiah-ji :

You may get much more cooperation from all parties after 6 months !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

23 Feb 2016

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Sunday 21 February 2016

Keep Experimenting !

Shri Nitin Gadkari likes to experiment and take the accompanying risks

He is not afraid to stick out his neck for fear of it getting chopped off

He is not paralyzed into inaction by " fear of failure "

He like to tell his officers , " Forget the history - what is your problem ? "

Then offers solutions such as :

* Logistic parks around big cities to decongest roads and reduce pollution

* RFID sensor embedded vehicles paying toll amount electronically without stopping / needing humans

* E-rickshaws to be treated on par with petrol driven rickshaws

* By passing Bharat V emission standards to directly jump to Bharat VI standards for all vehicles

* Introducing hybrid model of financing for attracting private participation in Highway construction

* Use of slag cement in construction of highways ( use of waste by-products of Steel Industry )

Dear Shri Gadkariji :

Allow me to suggest use of " COLD ASPHALT " technology for building new roads / filling pot holes

Use of hot asphalt requires a very narrow temperature range within which it must be spread on roads before rolling

Any hotter and it will just stick to the roller . Any colder and it just won't set

It is difficult to maintain such narrow range ( of temperature ) after asphalt carrying truck travels hundreds of kilometers - even when that truck has a heating jacket ( consuming lots of fuel ! )

If solidified asphalt ( usually stored in steel drums ) is used at the construction site , then it needs to be heated / melted locally ( usually by creating a wood fire ) - causing pollution and consuming trees !

And hot asphalt would just not adhere to a wet surface , rendering it useless for use in monsoon - especially for repair of pot holes

" COLD ASPHALT " technology overcomes ALL of these problems !

* It consists of mixing water ( 90 % ) with hot asphalt ( 9 % ) in presence of a specialty chemical ( 1 % ) , in a

very simple Mixing Machine which can be transported anywhere on a trolley

* This liquid mixture can remain stored in steel drums at ROOM TEMPERATURE for over ONE YEAR !

* Drums containing liquid can be transported and stored at road construction sites and COLD ASPHALT mixed

with sand / aggregates as and when required . No ripping / destroying of drums and breaking of solid asphalt

* There is no need for ANY temperature control as mixture / aggregate can remain at AMBIENT temperature

* Since Cold Asphalt is basically water ( 90 % ) , it is ideally suited for filling wet pot holes or laying on wet roads

* After laying / spreading , as soon as a heavy roller is driven over Cold Asphalt mixed aggregate , chemical bond

between water and asphalt is broken due to heavy pressure and setting process starts , causing the layer to

solidify .

Within a matter of MINUTES , regular traffic can flow over the road ! or over the filled pot holes !

* Use of Cold Asphalt technology results in a HUGE COST SAVING ( remember , it is 90 % water ! )

* Cold Asphalt roads are much easier to repair , with no pollution , and very little energy consumption

* Using Cold Asphalt technology, 3 machines ( leveller /spreader/roller ) can lay 1 KM road in a day !

I have personally seen NATIONAL HIGHWAYS being constructed with Cold Asphalt technology in France , way back in 1988 !

You may turn around and ask :

" With these advantages , how come our PWD / Municipalities have not adopted this revolutionary technology ? "

My guess :

Because those responsible for drawing up tender documents , insist on use of Hot Asphalt !

And you know , why !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

22 Feb 2016

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