Dear Prof Agrawal : What data fed to SUTRA model ?

 

 

Context :

Third wave of Covid may peak by January-end, IIT Kanpur professor says /  ET  /  10 Jan 2021

 

 Extract :

 

India might see the third wave of the Omicron-led Covid-19 peak by the end of January. Delhi and Mumbai specifically might see the wave peak around mid-January with daily cases at around 50,000-60,000 and 30,000 cases (on a seven-day average), IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal said.

Agrawal leads the government-backed Sutra model which mathematically predicts the spread of the virus. He further said that India might see four to eight lakh cases (seven-day average) by the end of this month

The Sutra model currently does not have precise data on the on-going third wave. "Doing prediction for India at the moment is more difficult since the model has not been able to capture the present phase yet," Agrawal tweeted two days ago.

The model has always indicated that the fall would also be sharper in cases of sharper rise in a number of cases - it means the number of cases would fall quickly once the country as a whole and cities reach their respective peaks.

"We will have to wait for three-four days until we can give a more precise prediction (on India's peak)," he said on Sunday. But, he appears to be more confident on peak prediction for Delhi and Mumbai which may happen one week from now. "The (Sutra) model has the more precise answer for these two cities," he said.

Dear Professor Agrawalji,

(manindra@iitk.ac.in )

 

You say :

 

"Doing prediction for India at the moment is more difficult since the model has not been able to capture the present phase yet “

 

Did you have in mind, “ capturing of data “ ( for every person in India ), as suggested by me in my following e-mail ?

 

Accelerating Learning / Improvising / Course-correcting [ 18 May 2021 ]

 

Extract :

WHAT NEXT ?

Ø    Over the past few weeks, there has been lots of debate whether we could have PREDICTED the “arrival-timing” and “location” of the SECOND WAVE.

      Now that wave is on decline, there is a danger that we , once again, find ourselves UN-PREPARED to PREDICT the “ time of arrival “ and “ place of striking “ of the inevitable THIRD WAVE

HOW TO GO ABOUT PREDICTING ?

Ø  CoWIN platform has made a small beginning by displaying following data in :

“ Final Certificate for COVID-19 Vaccination  “

Beneficiary Details :

#   Beneficiary Name

#   Age

#   Gendre

#   ID verified ( Aadhar No )

#  Unique Health ID [ UHID  ] -since not allotted in absence of HEALTH

    HISTORY                                          

#  Beneficiary Reference ID

Vaccination Details :  

#   Vaccine Name

#   Date of Dose

#   Vaccinated By ( Name of Person )

#   Vaccination at

SO , WHAT PERSONAL HELTH HISTORY DATA REMAINS TO BE COLLECTED FOR EVERY INDIAN , WHICH WILL ENABLE PREDICT THE THIRD WAVE ?

Following Data as suggested in my earlier E-Mail :

 Rationing of Covid Vaccine ? ……[ 06 July 2020 ] :

 

[ A ]   PERSONAL  DATA

 

         Ø  Name / Birthdate ( for Age ) / Gendre / Contact Details / Aadhar

             number

 

 

[ B ]   LOCATION  DATA

 

         Ø  Permanent Address / Current Address ( State – Jilla – City – locality ) /

             Red Zone / Containment

 

 

[ C ]   FAMILY  DATA

 

          Ø  Details of Parents / Siblings

 

 

[ D ]  HEALTH  HISTORY

 

         Ø  Details of recent illnesses - morbidity / Medicines given ( including for

             Covid treatment ) / Hospitals where treated / Names & License Number

             of Doctor who treated

 

             

 

[ E ]   ETHNIC  DATA

 

         Ø  Race / Religion  / Language ( Mother tongue )

 

 

[ F ]  EDUCATIONAL  DATA

 

        Ø  Graduate – Under Graduate – Illiterate etc

 

 

[ G ]  EMPLOYMENT  DATA

 

         Ø  Employed – Unemployed – Self employed

 

 

[ H ]  INCOME  DATA

 

        Ø  Monthly Income ( to determine whether RICH – MIDDLE CLASS – POOR )

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 12 Jan 2022