Rationing of Covid Vaccine ?

Hopefully, on 15^th Aug., Bharat Biotech will commercially launch COVAXIN

In months to follow, some more pharma companies may launch similar ( preventive ) vaccines

Hypothetically, we may need to quickly vaccinate 50 % of our population ( approx.. 700 million )

But, production / supply may be no more than 7 million dozes per month

So, it could take 100 months ( 8 years ) for supply to meet the demand !

Whenever for any item, demand far exceeds supply, black marketing becomes inevitable, with supply-chain operators ( medical stores ) and rich people finding ways to corner that limited supply

This would prevent the persons most in need of the vaccine, from getting vaccine

Who are those “ most in need “ ?

People deserving highest priorities are :

Ø  Healthcare Workers ( Doctors – Nurses – Lab Technicians etc )

Ø  Police personnel

Ø  Personnel from Essential Services

Ø  Home Delivery persons…… (  This is not a comprehensive list )

How to determine these priorities , scientifically / un-biasedly , for 700 million people ?

Now, if you ask 10 healthcare experts, there is a good chance that they agree on the above-mentioned 4 categories of persons

Those categories might add up to ( say ) 50 million persons ( needing 7 months’ supply )

But what about the remaining 650 million persons ?

I have a feeling those ten ( human ) experts will come up with very different priority lists !

No human expert , no matter how intelligent , can process and co-relate ALL the data , quickly and continuously ( since data keeps changing all the time ) for the following :

Ø  Data about “ Persons already infected ( cured / died / under treatment ) “

Ø  Data about “ Persons not infected so far “ – and needing vaccination

But , if meticulously compiled and centrally processed ( with help of Artificial Intelligence ), following data, compiled uniformly at source, could determine those

 “ VACCINATION  PRIORITIES “ :

[ A ]   PERSONAL  DATA

Ø  Name / Birthdate ( for Age ) / Gendre / Contact Details / Aadhar number

[ B ]   LOCATION  DATA

Ø  Permanent Address / Current Address ( State – Jilla – City – locality ) / Red Zone / Containment

[ C ]   FAMILY  DATA

Ø  Details of Parents / Siblings

[ D ]  HEALTH  HISTORY

Ø  Details of recent illnesses - morbidity / Medicines given ( including for Covid treatment ) / Hospitals where treated / Names & License Number of Doctor who treated

[ E ]   ETHNIC  DATA

Ø  Race / Religion  / Language ( Mother tongue )

[ F ]  EDUCATIONAL  DATA

Ø  Graduate – Under Graduate – Illiterate etc

[ G ]  EMPLOYMENT  DATA

Ø  Employed – Unemployed – Self employed

[ H ]  INCOME  DATA

Ø  Monthly Income ( to determine whether RICH – MIDDLE CLASS – POOR )

Why should we compile such data for all Indians ( suffering from Covid or not ) ?

Quote from : 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/racial-data-transparency

As more data about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic becomes available, it is increasingly clear that the disease is hitting the most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations in the U.S. the hardest.

Although racial and ethnic information is currently available for only about 35% of the total deaths in the U.S., even this limited sample shows that Black Americans and other historically disadvantaged groups are experiencing infection and death rates that are disproportionately high for their share of the total population.

For example, while Black Americans represent only about 13% of the population in the states reporting racial/ethnic information, they account for about 34% of total Covid-19 deaths in those states. Asian Americans and Latinx Americans also show elevated impacts in some regions.

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Besides using such exhaustive data for all ( Covid infected or not ) in order for AI software to tell us the “ priorities for vaccination “, what else should the Government do ensure that there is no “ black marketing “ of the limited supplies of the vaccine ?

Answer :

Ø  Today , each strip / bottle of a medicine carries “ batch number “

Ø  For vaccine , each bottle / vial , besides carrying Batch Number , must carry UNIQUE bottle number / vial number . Vaccine Manufacturer will record which bottle got dispatched to which drug store / when. Data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

Ø  Pharmacy Stores to maintain Computerized Record of who ( which person ) was sold a given “ Vial Number “ . This data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

Ø  No vial to be sold to anyone unless a Mobile App ( VaccineVend  ? ) clearly displays that person’s priority  ( as determined by AI ) , as HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW . No person without such Mobile App will be sold the vaccine

Ø  Chemist will enter sale-details in customer / buyer’s Mobile App , which will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

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Dear Dr HarshVardhanji,

If implemented , my suggestion ( for using AI to process trillions of bytes of data ) , will help not only in establishing who ( out of our 700 million citizen ) gets first / second / third , chance to get vaccinated, but it will also prevent black marketing of the vaccine

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@recruitGuru.com /  07 July 2020