Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do.

There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Saturday, 4 April 2020

Unlocking Lockdown : Calibrated – Gradual







If lockdown is totally lifted on 14th April ( - although not suddenly or surprisingly, since known in advance ), we can expect millions of persons to pour onto the streets within hours


All public places will get jam-packed and every mode of passenger transport will get overwhelmed


It could resemble uncorking of a Champaign bottle ! Eruption of a Volcano with its lid blown off !


If we are smart , we should be scared – very scared – of the consequences of saying ,

Goodbye, Social Distancing – Welcome Anti-Social Anarchy ! “


Can we stop such anarchy ?  If yes, how ?

Answer :

Ideally , we should render it unnecessary for people to leave their homes . If Mohamed cannot go to Mountain , then Mountain must go to Mohamed !


Mohamed =  Members of a family locked down in home

Mountain =  Offices / Factories/ Shops / Religious Places / Social Venues/ Edu Inst / Entertainment Places


Although not feasible in each of the above-mentioned cases , wherever possible , people should be enabled to carry-out their “ Interactions – Transactions “ online, with “ Deliveries – Gratifications “ ( of goods or services ) taking place through “ Delivery Persons / Drones “ .


Not only all Commerce should become E Commerce ( with almost everything selling online ) but even all Services should become E-Services


      This cannot happen overnight . Even with a very strong determination ( to make
      everything Online ), it may take years to arrive anywhere near this goal

      
      What do we do in the meantime (expedient ), to prevent “ Anti Social Intimacy “ ?


      Merely announcing a  PUBLIC  PLACES  POLICY [ 3P ] “ , won’t suffice


      I urge the Governments ( Central + States ) to publicize following :

======================================================
                     Time-table for Gradual Unlocking of Public Places  [ TGUPP  ]
======================================================
 
Month
Transport
Offices - Banks
Factories-workshops
Shops-Malls
Religious Places
Social Venues
Edu Insti
Entertain Venues
Apr 2020
Bycycles-Trucks-2 Wheelers
< 10 persons
< 5 persons
Only Ecom Cos
None
Home ( < 20 persons )
Coaching Classes ( < 10 )
None
May
Private cars

6 – 25 persons
Medical stores
None
Same as above
Same as above
None
June
Intercity Buses

26-50 persons
Kirana stores
None
Hall ( upto 50 )
10 - 50
None
July
Intercity Trains
< 50
< 100
Veg Mkts
Corner
Hall ( < 100 )
-
-
Aug
Planes
-
< 500
Small Malls
Small
Hall ( < 100 )
-
-
Sept
City Buses
< 100
> 500
-
-
Gardens
Colleges  / Hostels
Cinema Halls ( < 200 )
Oct
Ferries
-
-
Medium Malls
Medium
Beaches
-
-
Nov
Metro-Local Trains
100 - 500
-
-
Medium
Resorts
University Campuses
Stadium ( < 500 )
Dec
Cruise Ships
-
-
Large Malls
-
-
-
500-1000
Jan 21
-
500 +
-
-
Large
-
-
1000-5000
Feb




Shirdi-Tirupati


Open Sports Grouds
Mar




Golden Temple



April




Jama Masjid




Notes :

Ø  None of the above apply to the following units – establishments - facilities :


     #  Healthcare facilities engaged in fighting Corona Virus pandemic ( eg : Hospitals /
         Nursing Homes / Labs / Moholla Clinic / Clinics of private doctors etc )
    #  Pharma companies / Bulk Drug Mfrs / Drug Intermediate Mfrs
    #  Essential services / offices of Governments / Municipalities
    #  Manufacturers of Medical Equipment / devices
    #  Courier Companies / Delivery companies
  

Ø  This is only a CONCEPTUAL FRAME – WORK   [  Not so ODD after all !  ]


Ø  Governments should liberalize / encourage “ self employed “ hawkers / vendors to go from door-to-door, with whatever goods they may be selling(eg:Vegetable Vendors )  They may be encouraged to form a SOCIETY, and launch a portal where people can register their needs

     Currently, in Mumbai alone, there are estimated 3 lakh hawkers ( of which, only

     12,000 are licensed )

      Most of them spread their ware on footpaths. Govt should come out with a scheme

      whereby they vacate the spaces on footpaths and load their stuff onto hand-carts (

      6’x3’ wooden platforms mounted on 4 bicycle wheels, called RENKDI or LAARY )

      which are a familiar sight all over India.

      Corporate ( FMCG and others ) will be happy to donate such carts to the

      government ( costing approx. Rs 1,000 each ), if they are allowed to host their

      product-advts on such carts, permanently. This ( advt ) could be a 12” wide steel

      sheet along the 18 feet periphery of the cart

     Government may gift / donate such carts to footpath-occupying vendors, and track

     their movements through their Mobile Phones . 3 lakh carts will cost Rs 30 crore but

     these will roam 1500 km of Mumbai roads / streets, delivering good at door-steps.

     Mountain goes to Mohamed !

Ø  Figures mentioned in tabulation above ( of number of persons permitted ) , can vary from place to place and over time

 

Ø  Based on guidelines issued by the Central Government, State Home Departments can frame their own timetable and arrange to have it “ Posted / Pasted “ outside each and every Public Place, in a prominent way


Ø  What is far more important is to monitor the actual observance of the PUBLIC PLACES RULES , by the establishments concerned. This would require :


#   CCTV enabled with Facial Recognition Software

                  Marriage of Technologies to contain Corona ? Yes !..............[ 15 Mar 2020 ]



#   Mobile Apps

                  Thank You , Shri RaviShankar Prasadji……………………………………[ 02 April 2020 ]



             #   Mobile-based Attendance System at each entry point

                   MAD goes to Mandi



#   “ E –Summons “ for persons breaking the rules


#   Automatic and instant “ Immobilization “ of vehicles flouting the rules

                  Immobilize the Jumpers ?        ……………………………………………………[ 14 Mar 2018 ]


=========================================================

Related Readings :
Sankalp – Sanyanm – Shastra ……………………………………..  [ 20 March 2020 ]

Mobiles for Tracking Corona Movements ? ………………………[ 23 March 2020 ]

How to convert Temporary into Permanent ?................. [ 19  Mar  2020  ]

 

=========================================================

Will such graduated, but prolonged lockdown, have a greater negative impact on our ECONOMY , as compared to bringing it to a quick / definitive END ?


A recent research paper says :  NO



Highlights :

We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow  faster after the pandemic is over. 


Our findings thus indicate that  NPIs [ Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention ie ; Social Distancing ] , not only  lower  mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic

===============================================

Dear Shri Narendrabhai Modiji,


As advised by you, of course I will switch-on a torch at 9 pm tomorrow evening – which may light up my gallery

But what I have suggested above, is a powerful SEARCH-LIGHT which will light up the entire sky above our beloved country

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

===============================================
04 April 2020
hcp@RecruitGuru.com