Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Tuesday 30 June 2020

God appears as Roti




In my following blog / email, to Cabinet Ministers / State Chief Ministers, some 3 months back , I wrote :

India trumps USA ? ………………………………………………….[ 25 March 2020 ]


“ Even as I await the press conference of Smt Nirmala Sitharamanji at 1pm this afternoon , I urge fellow citizen to appreciate that , when it comes to caring for the poor , Shri Modi does not waste time, in sloganeering [  Garibi Hatao  ]


He acts upon what Mahatmaji taught him :

“ In the hands of the poor , God appears in the form of a Roti

=================================================

Yesterday, Shri Modiji proved that he “ cares for the poor “, by announcing extension of PMGKAY ( PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana ) by 5 months ( July-Nov )


Extract :

More than 80 crore people have been given ration (5 kg rice/wheat) for three months free of cost, moreover, every family has been given 1 kg dal too free of cost. This is something which has astounded the world,” Modi said

Under the scheme, 80 crore individuals will continue to get 5 kg of wheat or rice, free of cost per month till November. This will be over and above the food-grains being made available under the public distribution system through ration shops and subsidised price.

=========================================================

In my earlier blog / email (India trumps USA ? ) , I wrote :

Question :

Do we have enough food-grains to sustain such program beyond 3 months ?

Answer :

We need 5600 million kg / month =   5.6 Million tonnes / month

For 3 months , we need              =   5.6 x 3 = 16.8 million tonnes

For 12 months , we need             =  5.6 x 12 = 67.2 million tonnes

By April , we expect FCI ( Food Corporation of India ) food-grain stock = 100 million tonnes

Expected production of food grain in 2019-20  =  292 million tonnes


Hence , no worry on this count !

=======================================================


Not only Shri Modiji has accepted my suggestion, he has extended PMGKAY by 5 MONTHS


Hence ,instead of requiring 16.8 million tons ( for a 3 month extension ), Govt would need to distribute ( FREE ), some 20 million tons ( 5Kg x 5months x 800 million persons )


As compared to the existing stock ( 100 million tons ) + the incoming stock ( 292 million tons ) , this 20 million tons, is a small requirement - approximately, the quantity that parishes each year due to


Ø  Open / uncovered storage under the rains

Ø  Being eaten away by rats / insects ( even when stored in covered go-downs of FCI )


Context :

India Has Enough Food Grain Stock to Supply to Its Citizens for More than 1 Year 

Food grains rot in India while millions live with empty stomachs 

 


May be this prompted West Bengal CM, Smt Mamtaji to announce :

West Bengal to give free ration till June 2021, says Mamata


Can we expect that, before long, in a game of “ Political-Upman-ship “, some States will announce :


For the poor, FREE ration for EVER “ ?

Unlikely, but should that happen, Poor might want to remain Poor forever { at least on Government Records }



Dear Shri Narendrabhai,


I suppose your idea is that those rendered unemployed due to Corona pandemic, do not go to sleep on empty stomach


I suppose, you and I, hope that by November end these poor will get back their jobs and earn enough to be able to “ buy “ their rations


Even if those migrant workers do manage to get back their jobs, some 12 million others get added to the ranks of “ jobless “, each year


How do we enable them to “ buy “their rations ?


Now, and after November 2020 ?


FREE ration cannot be a PERMANENT solution


Enabling jobless to become SELF EMPLOYED, is the only answer


You have already found that answer in your “ Street Vendor Loan Scheme


Please modify and extend it as described at :

Congratulations , Shri Mahesh Kumarji    …………………………………..[ 20 June 2020 ]




With regards


Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  01 July 2020  





A tale of two approaches




One tale :

Since China has ( allegedly ) transgressed into our territory, we should boycott imports from China


Response :

Join Zee News' Made In India campaign to boycott China, give missed call on 7834998998


Related Readings :

A Seven Year War – Redux ? …………………………………………………………….[ 28 June 2020 ]

Boycott Chinese Products ? A Game Two can play  ………………………….[ 09 June 2020 ]


 



Second tale :


Since USA has suspended ( claimed to be temporarily ) 
H1-B visas, some 60,000 Indian IT professionals will not be able to go to work in US firms


Response :



Extract :

Ø  In the 39th annual general meeting on Thursday, Infosys COO U B Pravin Rao assured that the work from home (WFH) model has not disrupted the employee productivity. Depending on the client requirements and projects, employees can choose between a flexible work from home option.


Ø  Infosys's 93% of 2.4 lakh headcount is already working from home. The company was able to switch within the first few weeks of Covid-19. The IT service firm has been able to tide over the global crisis triggered by the pandemic.


Ø  Nandan Nilekani, Infosys Chairman said, "Our remote access infrastructure was expanded 10x for virtual private network bandwidth and back-end capacity scaled by 4x to support the increase in concurrent connected remote users.


Ø  New deal signings and an increase in digital revenue have helped the company to grow revenue by 8.1% in FY20. Over 39% revenue companies came from digital services and solutions


Ø  The H-1B visa ban does not have much of impact on Infosys



For Infosys Game-Plan , read :
Climb Every Wall / Cross Every Sea ……………………………………………………[ 19 April 2017 ]

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lessons to be learned :

Level-PlayingField is a Double Edged Sword !  ………………………………….[ 08 Feb 2017 ]


=====================================================================================

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  01  July  2020

Monday 29 June 2020

Warriors without Weapons ?




How could our brave soldiers fight the Chinese army on Ladakh border if the only weapon they could use, is a lathi ( stick ? )


I got to think about the similarities between the situation at Ladakh and the situation prevailing on the roads of Mumbai, for the past 2 days


3 days back, Mumbai Police issued following “ Guidelines “ to its citizen :


You can travel beyond 2 km from your residence, only if you have to go to work or in case of any emergency






Here is what happened :


Ø  Nakabandi at 137 places across the city

Ø  30,072 vehicles stopped and checked ( ? )

Ø    8,000 vehicles impounded on Sunday ( day 1 )

Ø  16,000 vehicles impounded on Monday ( day 2 ) / 72 % were 2 wheelers



Senior inspector Mahendra Nerlekar of Jogeshwari police station said,


“People are roaming unnecessarily. Some said they thought the lockdown is over. 

When we stop them, they say that they are going to office or to a hospital to meet their kin, but fail to show us the papers, owing to which we are forced to act against them,” Nerlekar said.


I pity the police . I have greater pity for those citizen who have / had , good reasons to go beyond 2 km from their residence


A “ fair and just “ dispensation of this ( temporary , no doubt ) rule would require that the following “ necessary / sufficient  / verifiable / foolproof “ data is available to the Police person who is stopping a vehicle ( or a pedestrian ) :



Ø  ( Who ) Identity of the person


- through Mobie-based Aadhar Card / Arogya Setu App on mobile phone of the
     traveler / facial recognition app on the mobile phone of the Police person, which is
     connected with face photos of 1.3 billion citizen in a Central Database in cloud /
     CCTV cameras mounted all over the City etc


    Trissur Police Department just introduced this type of surveillance

     
     News came in this morning that Central Government has banned some 59 Chinese
     Mobile Apps, some of which were already transmitting to its manufacturer /
     developers , such kind of PERSONAL TRAVEL DATA , without the knowledge of the
     300 million Indian Users of these apps

   

Ø  Where precisely is his residence ? Where exactly police stopped him for questioning ? How far away was that ( questioning ) location from his residence ( > < 2 Km ) ?


All of these data must not become a matter of “ My word against your word “ – since wrong / inaccurate interpretation could result in a culprit getting away by lying or an honest person telling truth may get victimized



I strongly recommend that Police release a Mobile App { Me-Locate ? } based on API provided by :






====================================================


Dear Shri RaviShankar Prasadji,


I believe the Central Government is keen to replace the 59 Chinese Mobile Apps with equivalent ( or better ) , Indian designed-developed-supported apps


My limited understanding is that most of those Chinese Apps were devoted to,


Ø   Gaming
Ø   Videos
Ø   Shopping
Ø   Messaging….etc


      While drawing up a list of PRIORITIES for developing Indian mobile apps, I urge you to ignore the idea of mere one-to-one , “ Replacing “ and focus on development of those Apps which will make life EASY for our citizen by offering e-Services


Although not comprehensive , following e-mail sent earlier, would help draw up those priorities :


An App for Everything ?   ………………………………….[ 18 Aug 2017 ]


With regards,


Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  30  June  2020

Sunday 28 June 2020

A Seven Year War – Redux ?




The Seven Years' War was a global conflict that was fought between 1756 and 1763 …[ 7 years ]


World War I occurred from 1914 to 1918………………………………………………………[ 5 years ]


The Second World War occurred from 1939 to 1945…………………………………………[ 6 years ]



The Third World War is generally considered a successor to the Second World War…..devastating in nature and likely much more violent than both the First and Second World Wars


In 1947, Albert Einstein commented that,
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."


On the face of it , although it is 75 years since end of World War II , we have been lucky , not to have witnessed World War III

At least, warring countries, are not using Nuclear Weapons to conquer lands of other countries

That is why , man-on-the-street does not get to feel ( at least, directly ), the ill-effects of the TRADE WAR , being waged quietly / relentlessly, since I sent following report to L&T’s Corporate Management, some 31 years ago :

=========================================================

January 5, 1989

Mr. S.R.Subramaniam ,

                                
CORPORATE DIVERSIFICATION


20th Century saw two world-wars between super-powers. The aim of both was territorial expansion.


21st Century will witness a similar war of global dimensions -but with a difference


It will be

*  a war of expansion of economic -territory involving nations,    
    large and small

                        
*  fought by mega-corporations


*  employing world-wide network of space-age technologies /    
    Alliances / resources / markets.


*  unrestrained by national boundaries


*  without an end


   
It will be a business-war in which the unprepared will be wiped-out and even those who have made definite survival-plans will find going tough.


I suggest that the Corporate Management sets aside one full day during the forthcoming Strategic-Plan Meetings, to debate this report and take necessary decisions.


=========================================================

31 years after I wrote this report, China seems to have captured much of that ECONOMIC TERRITORY , as can be seen from following :


Exporter Trade

      Country                  /   US$ Billlion   /    Partner share (%)


Ø  China                 /   2,750  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png     /   14.57
Ø  United States     /   1,573  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /     8.34
Ø  Germany           /   1,436  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /     7.61
Ø  Japan                /      807  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /    4.28
Ø  Korea, Rep.       /      601  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /     3.19


=========================================================


For past decade, all countries around the World, are trying very hard to increase their EXPORTS and reduce their IMPORTS ( - especially, from China )


They want to regain some of that Economic Territory captured by China , which it managed to WIN due to , what I call , a “ PQD Strategy “ :


P = Price ( lower than the cost at which the recipient country can produce a product locally )

Q = Quality ( better than the quality of product in recipient country )

D = Delivery ( faster delivery of much larger quantities than local manufacturers )


Now , as orders started pouring in from all over the World, Chinese Companies built-up huge manufacturing plants to increase capacities to feed the entire world- often with all kinds of incentives from , both the local State governments and the Central Chinese government ( including various kinds of Subsidies and Export Incentives )


Neither was there any pressure from rising “ Labour Wage Costs “, in absence of Trade Unions


Many companies insisted that its workers live in dormitories built by Companies on factory premises and work in 2 shifts of 12 hours each ( without any overtime payment ! )

=========================================================


Now what could happen if countries around the World ( - not just India ),


Ø  Cut back on imports from China

Ø  Start manufacturing locally, products so far imported from China ?


Irrespective of how much such “ Cut Backs “ would help revive the economies of those countries ( - and be able to create local jobs ), one thing is certain, viz:


Ø  Manufacturing capacities of Chinese factories would remain grossly “under-utilized



How would Chinese companies react ?

Ø  Go back and re-visit the “ P ” in their PQD Strategy

Ø  They would lower their “ Prices “ still further ( while further improving Q and D )



 How would they do this ?

Ø  Since there is little that they can do to reduce their “ FIXED COST “, they will try to lower their “ VARIABLE COST “, viz : manpower cost


Ø  They will lower Manpower Cost by ,

     #  Cutting back on number of workers / supervisory staff

     #  Introducing ROBOTS to replace humans, wherever possible

     #  Reducing salaries / wages , across the board and / or restricting annual wage
         increases , well below the percentage rise in CPI ( Consumer Price Index )


     #  Replacing fossil-Fuel base electric power with Solar Power ( @ Re 1 / Kwh ? )


     #  Even “ mandate “ WFH ( Work from Home ) for most office-workers . To make
         this possible, connect Gigabit Internet in every home


     #  Insist that Companies encourage its workers to set-up “home industries“, by
         outsourcing manufacture of components / sub-assemblies and help them with
         machines and finance ( encourage “Self Employment “ from every home )


     #   Make a “ Strategic Shift “ 

        > from being Factory to the World ,

        > to becoming Back Office of World


        [ a marked shift to SERVICE SECTOR– services which can be delivered to the
          World, remotely from small Chinese towns / villages ]



     #  Abolish Paper Currency altogether by introducing Govt sponsored / controlled
         Crypto-Currency. This will eliminate Black Money / Corruption by making all
         transactions ( Sale / Purchase ) only digital ( including salary-wage payments )


    #  Introduce “ Hire – Purchase “ schemes for foreign buyers of Chinese products


Ø  When Chinese companies drop their Prices still further, that powerful Economic Equation of C > P > V ( Low Costs > lead to Low Price > lead to High Volumes ), will assert itself  
          
======================================================


My Countrymen,


Even as you listen to experts ( politically motivated or otherwise ), ask them :


“ Madam / Sir :


  Please, take a look at the following table , comparing how our economy grew vis-à-vis that of China, over the past decades. Starting at the almost same level as ourselves, China seems to have over-taken us, many times over


It is easy – and convenient – to dismiss China’s phenomenal growth to its dictatorial political system , where the decision-power is highly centralized among a few . No denying that this could be an important / relevant factor


But , certainly not the ONLY FACTOR


I urge you to debate whether that PQD Strategy which I described above, could also be an important factor in China gaining a large share of world’s Economic Territory “


======================================================

{source for following comparison: Not just Galwan, we need to win these 5 battles too  }

=======================
===============================
Srl No
Parameter


Readers: Add comments and share with contacts
1
GDP ( $ Billion )
1980
2018


         India
186.3
2,718


         China
191.1
13,608






2
Urban Population( % )
1950
2020


          India
17 %
34.9 %


          China
11.8 %
61.4 %






3
Poverty Headcount Ratio ( % )
1987-90
2015


          India
48.9 %
21.2 %


          China
66.2 %
  0.5 %






4
Rail Network ( Km )
1980-81
2017-18


          India
61,240
68,442


          China
51,700
127,000






5
Car Production/year
1999
2019


          India
5.3 Lakh
36.2 Lakh


          China
5.7 Lakh
213  Lakh








Dear Narendrabhai,


In your yesterday’s “ Man Ki  Baat “ address to the nation, you invited citizen to come forward and send you “ Innovative Suggestions

Please consider those listed above ( and at the link below sent to you earlier) , which no doubt, China will implement within 1 year !

     Boycott Chinese Products ? A Game Two can play  …………………………[ 09 June 2020 ]



With regards,


Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  29  June  2020