The Seven
Years' War was a global conflict that was
fought between 1756 and 1763 …[ 7 years ]
World
War I occurred from 1914 to 1918………………………………………………………[ 5 years ]
The Second
World War occurred from 1939 to 1945…………………………………………[ 6 years ]
The Third
World War is generally considered a successor to the Second World
War…..devastating in nature and likely much more violent than both the First
and Second World Wars
In 1947, Albert Einstein commented that,
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
On the face of it , although it is 75 years since end of World War II , we
have been lucky , not to have witnessed World War III
At least, warring countries, are not using Nuclear Weapons to conquer
lands of other countries
That is why , man-on-the-street does not get to feel ( at least,
directly ), the ill-effects of the TRADE WAR
, being waged quietly / relentlessly, since I sent following report to
L&T’s Corporate Management, some 31 years ago :
=========================================================
January 5, 1989
Mr. S.R.Subramaniam ,
CORPORATE
DIVERSIFICATION
20th Century saw two world-wars between
super-powers. The aim of both was territorial expansion.
21st Century will
witness a similar war of global dimensions -but
with a difference
It will be
* a war of expansion of economic -territory involving
nations,
large and small
* fought by mega-corporations
* employing world-wide network of
space-age technologies /
Alliances /
resources / markets.
* unrestrained by national boundaries
* without an end
It will be a business-war in
which the unprepared will be wiped-out and even those who have made
definite survival-plans will find going tough.
I suggest that the Corporate
Management sets aside one full day during the forthcoming Strategic-Plan
Meetings, to debate this report and take necessary decisions.
=========================================================
31 years after I wrote this report, China seems to have captured much of
that ECONOMIC TERRITORY , as can be seen
from following :
Exporter
Trade
Country / US$ Billlion /
Partner share (%)
=========================================================
For past decade, all countries around the World, are trying very hard to
increase their EXPORTS and reduce their IMPORTS ( - especially, from China )
They want to regain some of that Economic Territory captured by China ,
which it managed to WIN due to , what I call , a “ PQD Strategy “ :
P = Price ( lower than the
cost at which the recipient country can produce a product locally )
Q = Quality ( better than the
quality of product in recipient country )
D
= Delivery ( faster
delivery of much larger quantities than local manufacturers )
Now , as orders started pouring in from all over the World, Chinese
Companies built-up huge manufacturing plants to increase capacities to feed the
entire world- often with all kinds of incentives from , both the local State
governments and the Central Chinese government ( including various kinds of
Subsidies and Export Incentives )
Neither was there any pressure from rising “ Labour Wage Costs “, in absence of Trade
Unions
Many companies insisted that its workers live in dormitories built by
Companies on factory premises and work in 2 shifts of 12 hours each ( without
any overtime payment ! )
=========================================================
Now what could happen if countries around the World ( - not just India ),
Ø
Cut back on imports from China
Ø
Start manufacturing locally, products so far imported from
China ?
Irrespective of how much such “ Cut Backs “ would help revive the
economies of those countries ( - and be able to create local jobs ), one thing
is certain, viz:
Ø
Manufacturing capacities of Chinese factories would remain
grossly “under-utilized
“
How would Chinese companies react ?
Ø
Go back and re-visit the “ P ” in their PQD Strategy
Ø
They would lower their “ Prices “ still further ( while further improving Q
and D )
How would they do this ?
Ø
Since there is little that they can do to reduce their “ FIXED COST “, they will
try to lower their “ VARIABLE
COST “, viz : manpower cost
Ø
They will lower Manpower Cost by ,
# Cutting back on number of workers / supervisory staff
# Introducing
ROBOTS to replace humans,
wherever possible
# Reducing salaries / wages , across the board
and / or restricting annual wage
increases , well below the percentage rise in CPI ( Consumer Price Index
)
# Replacing fossil-Fuel base
electric power with Solar Power ( @ Re 1 / Kwh ? )
# Even “ mandate “ WFH ( Work from Home ) for most office-workers
. To make
this
possible, connect Gigabit Internet in every home
# Insist that Companies encourage
its workers to set-up “home industries“, by
outsourcing manufacture of
components / sub-assemblies and help them with
machines and finance ( encourage “Self Employment “ from every home )
# Make a “ Strategic Shift “
> from being Factory to the World ,
> to becoming Back Office of World
[
a marked shift to SERVICE
SECTOR– services which can be delivered to the
World, remotely from small Chinese towns / villages ]
# Abolish Paper Currency
altogether by introducing Govt sponsored / controlled
Crypto-Currency. This will eliminate Black
Money / Corruption by making all
transactions ( Sale / Purchase ) only digital
( including salary-wage payments )
# Introduce “ Hire – Purchase “
schemes for foreign buyers of Chinese products
Ø
When Chinese companies drop their Prices still further, that
powerful Economic Equation of C > P > V ( Low Costs > lead to Low
Price > lead to High Volumes ), will assert itself
======================================================
My Countrymen,
Even as you listen to experts ( politically
motivated or otherwise ), ask them :
“ Madam / Sir :
Please,
take a look at the following table , comparing how our economy grew vis-à-vis
that of China, over the past decades. Starting at the almost same level as
ourselves, China seems to have over-taken us, many times over
It is easy – and convenient – to dismiss
China’s phenomenal growth to its dictatorial political system , where the
decision-power is highly centralized among a few . No denying that this could
be an important / relevant factor
But , certainly not the ONLY FACTOR
I urge you to debate whether that PQD Strategy
which I described above, could also be an important factor in China gaining a
large share of world’s Economic Territory “
======================================================
{source for following comparison: Not
just Galwan, we need to win these 5 battles too }
=======================
===============================
Srl No
|
Parameter
|
Readers: Add comments and share with contacts
|
||
1
|
GDP ( $ Billion )
|
1980
|
2018
|
|
India
|
186.3
|
2,718
|
||
China
|
191.1
|
13,608
|
||
2
|
Urban Population( % )
|
1950
|
2020
|
|
India
|
17 %
|
34.9 %
|
||
China
|
11.8 %
|
61.4 %
|
||
3
|
Poverty Headcount Ratio ( % )
|
1987-90
|
2015
|
|
India
|
48.9 %
|
21.2 %
|
||
China
|
66.2 %
|
0.5 %
|
||
4
|
Rail Network ( Km )
|
1980-81
|
2017-18
|
|
India
|
61,240
|
68,442
|
||
China
|
51,700
|
127,000
|
||
5
|
Car Production/year
|
1999
|
2019
|
|
India
|
5.3 Lakh
|
36.2 Lakh
|
||
China
|
5.7 Lakh
|
213 Lakh
|
||
Dear
Narendrabhai,
In your yesterday’s “ Man Ki Baat “ address to the nation, you invited
citizen to come forward and send you “ Innovative
Suggestions “
Please consider those listed above ( and at the
link below sent to you earlier) , which no doubt, China will implement within 1 year !
Boycott
Chinese Products ? A Game Two can play …………………………[ 09 June 2020 ]
With regards,
Hemen Parekh
hcp@RecruitGuru.com /
29 June 2020
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