Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Friday 3 July 2015

The Missing Link



MOIA ( Ministry of Overseas Indians Affairs ) has just launched a web site :

www.emigrate.gov.in


Without doubt , a very useful initiative to protect the interests of ( mostly ) , manual workers taking up jobs in Gulf Countries


The site requires registration from :


>  Foreign Employers wanting to hire Indian workers for posting abroad

>  Indian Recruitment Agencies working on behalf of such Foreign Employers

>  Indian Companies taking their workers abroad for executing projects


emigrate.in , even provides some data about approximate prevailing wages that Indian workers may expect to get in a few foreign countries


So , what are the missing links ?


>  This web site is meant to be used only by various Government Agencies
     and what it calls , " Partners " ( ie : Foreign Employers / Indian
     Recruitment Agencies / Indian Project Exporters )


>  It does not host searchable databases of ,

     *  Manual job vacancies available abroad

     *  Manual workers ( Unskilled / Semi-Skilled / Skilled ) available in India


Now consider the following :

>    These days , most every country is facing a slow-down of its economy

>    As a result , Foreign Companies are under pressure to cut costs

>    To cut costs , these companies are often retrenching employees

>    For the same reason , these foreign companies are " Outsourcing "
      their " Back-Office Jobs " to India / Malaysia / Indonesia / Philippines etc 

     
>    In nearly all countries , unemployment is steadily rising

>    As a result , there is a strong resentment against foreign workers

>    Since foreign workers work for lesser wages , they are looked upon as
       snatching away jobs from native population

>    Soon , thousands of illegal migrants from North African countries , who
      are currently flooding the European countries - and facing strong local
      resistance - will start rushing to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries ,
      which are today , primary destinations of manual Indian workers.

      For reasons of religion and language , they will score over the Indians
  

Also consider scenario closer at home in India :

>    India adds some 12 million people to its workforce each year

>    Of these , some 3.5 million are " Graduates "

>    These graduates are unemployable as " Workers " , since they do not
       possess any " Manual Skills " ( Carpenter / Electrician / Plumber etc )

>    And they don't want to work as " Unskilled Labor " - at home or abroad !

>    Some 430 lakhs of them are already registered with 900+ Employment
      Exchanges - which can find jobs for only 1 lakh per year !

>    These 430 lakh resumes ( applicants ) are unavailable for searching and
       short-listing , by any Foreign or Indian Project Employer, visiting ,

       www.emigrate.gov.in

>    Nor does emigrate.gov.in , carry any searchable listing of jobs abroad,
      which these 430 lakh jobseekers can search and directly "Apply Online ",
      without having to depend upon the intermediaries ( recruitment agents )


At this stage , it is worth asking ourselves :

>   Are there clear - and present - indicators that physical export of Indian
     Manual Labour is bound to sharply decline in next 2/3 years  ?

>   On the other hand , is there a clear opportunity for India's millions of
     graduates , to offer their " Digital Back Office Services "  to Foreign
     companies , who do not face as much resistance to " Outsourcing " as
     they do with physical presence of Indians on their own soil ?


     Virtual office operations carried out from India and delivered over
     Internet , are inconspicuous ! And a god-sent opportunity for
     India's teeming self-employed " Freelancers " , who can deliver such
     services at globally competitive prices.


>   Is it not the right time for Central Government to become "Proactive"
     and launch a Virtual Employment Exchange ( VEE ) , as outlined in

     " W3F ( World  Wide  Work  Federation ) ",

    described on my personal site  hemenparekh.in  ?
    
-----------------------------------

hemen  parekh

04 July, 2015

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Thursday 2 July 2015

Shape of Things to Come ?




In the annals of Robotics , 02 July , 2015  will be remembered


On this day , an assembly line robot , in Germany's Volkswagen factory grabbed and crushed a worker against a metal plate, killing him


It is too early to say whether this was an act of ,

>   Human negligence

>   Technical failure , or

>   Beginning of the Ray Kurzweil's  prediction, when the brains of the
     Computers and Human beings will merge seamlessly to constitute ,
     what he called " Singularity " ( so feared by Elon Musk !  )


Whether - and when - humans will reach such an " Event Horizon " or not , it is high time , Governments of the World , formally adopt and legislate , that the robot manufacturers shall build into their creations, the 3 laws first pronounced by famous science-fiction writer , Isaac Asimov


 These laws are :  
   

1.  A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.


2.  A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.


3.  A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.


Now consider this :


>   India is already a " Software Super-power "


>   Prime Minister , Shri Narendra Modi , launched on 01 July , a Digital
     India campaign to transform India's e-Governance and lift millions of
     India's poor , out of abysmal poverty


It would be a glorious achievement of India's computer scientists , if they develop and undertake, to supply to the robot manufacturers of the World , a license-free software algorithm , incorporating Asimov's 3 " Laws of Robotics "



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

03 July , 2015

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Tuesday 30 June 2015

Export Strategy ?



News reports are agonizing over the declining figures of exports for the past 6 months - month after month

There is no doubt , among many corrective actions being undertaken by the Central Government , promoting exports from MSME , is one

No need to look far, for a reason for this emphasis

Just look at how much MSME in our neighboring countries are exporting :

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country         /     No of  MSME     /     Ave Export / year ( $ )
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Singapore     /    9,296                /       6.74    Million

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Malaysia       /    28,840               /       2.05    Million 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S.Korea        /    2.9 million           /       45 , 000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India            /   30 million        /          4, 000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Now , even if each of our MSME succeeds in exporting just $ 40,000 worth of exports per year , that would amount to ,

$ 40,000*30 million  !


Currently each MSME ( on an average ) employs 2.5 persons

How many more persons would 30 million MSME need to employ , if each were to raise exports by 10  times ? ( from $ 4000 to $ 40,000 )

It is reported that , even at the current level of operations , India's MSME sector creates 1.3 million jobs every year

For raising (ave) MSME exports by 10 times , would that figure go up to 13 million new jobs / year  ?

Enough to absorb the 12 million persons joining our job market each year ?

It is time for re-thinking our Export Strategy 

By emulating smaller neighbors , we could solve two problems , at one time !

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen   parekh

01  July, 2015

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Hire , when you need : Fire , when you don't !



What is the amount of investment required to create 1 Million jobs per month ? ( = No of jobseekers joining India's labour market each month )

That would depend upon the " Industry " for investment

There are some , " Capital Intensive " industries which would require a huge investment , whereas , there are some " Labour Intensive " industries , where a much smaller investment can generate 1 Million jobs

For example , to generate 1 Million jobs would need :

*  Industrial Instruments ( Labour Intensive )................... Rs  10,000  Cr
*  Boilers / Steam Generating Plants ( Capital Intensive )... Rs 500,000 Cr

{ Source : DIPP , Investment and Job Creation from Aug 1991-Mar 2014
   as reported in Times of India / 17 March , 2015  }

Of course , we don't have to create all of those 1 Million jobs per month , in just one or two industries

If we take an " Average Investment " required across ALL the industries , then , may be , we need :

Rs 200,000 Cr to generate 1 Million jobs every month

ie :   Rs 2 Lakh*Crores   per month
ie :   Rs 24 Lakh*Crores  every year

Now , who has got that kind of money to invest , even if we assume that

>  there is a " Ready Market " for all of those products , here and now ?

>  this market will not shrink in the foreseeable future  ?

Obviously , the Governments ( Central + States ) , don't  !

If we include FDI , may be Private Sector can raise that kind of money

But will it invest in " Capital Intensive " industries or in " Labour Intensive " industries ?

Given the current labour laws , it is clear that the investors will choose to invest in Capital Intensive industries

Even if that means , creation of only 1 Lakh jobs instead of 10 Lakh jobs !

At this point , it is worth researching whether USA succeeds in creating some 150,000 / 200,000  new jobs every month , due to its policy of  :

"  Hire when you need : Fire when you don't  "

Before hiring , do USA industrialists ask of themselves :

"  If things go wrong and I am forced to trim my work-force , will this recruit
   become a permanent burden ? "



Question that the Labour Laws must answer :


" What comes first ?  Creation of new jobs , or , retention of existing jobs ? "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

June 30 , 2015

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Sunday 28 June 2015

The Greek Tragedy



With a public debt of $ 320 Billion , and unable to raise fresh loans ( to pay off old loans ) , Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy - and exit from Euro-Zone


Dire predictions are being made by the Economists / Bankers / Politicians etc , as to what will be the impact on :


*    Other debt-ridden countries like Portugal / Italy / Spain etc

*    Economies of the European lender-countries 

*    Balance Sheets of Financial Institutions ( eg : IMF / European Common Bank etc )

*    Economies of Developing countries , unable to export to Europe


But hardly anyone seems to be asking :


*    Why did Greece land itself in such a trouble ?

*    Will Spain / Portugal / Italy - and other debt-ridden countries - soon find themselves in a similar condition  ?
      

You don't need to have a Ph D in Economics to know the obvious answer  !


Greece finds itself in this trouble for the same reason that a person would , if he starts spending far in excess of his income


Usually by borrowing lots of money from friends / relatives , who , oblige without asking :


>    What is your current income ? What is your current savings ? 


>    What is likely to be your future income ?


>    What do you need this loan for ?  When - and how much - will you repay  ?



If there are no satisfactory answers , then you know that either the borrower has no capacity to repay

or , ( worse ) , no intention to repay  !



Apparently , Greeks have been living beyond their means ( income ) for many many years


Generation after generation of Greeks thought :


>   Let us enjoy today .  Why worry about tomorrow ?  Let our children worry about that  !



The 20+ something Greek youth ( of which , 26 % are unemployed ) , have " inherited " that debt of $ 320 billion , from their fore-fathers


Hence , it is reasonable for them to say :


"  Hey ,  I did not borrow / spend all that money  !  Why should I be made to suffer for the sins committed by my parents / grand parents  ?  "


Problem is not that the lenders cannot accept this argument and agree to , even write-off $ 320 billion


All that the lenders are telling the Greek Youth ( thru Greek Government ) , is :


"  No problem , but no more money either , 

   Just learn to live within your own income . Learn to fend for yourself .

   Stop living on borrowed time ( - and borrowed money ) "



Here , there is a lesson for us Indians , as well  !


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh  /  29 June, 2015


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Tuesday 23 June 2015

Bank Recapitalization ?




Bank  Re-Capitalization  ?



Here is a layman's understanding :


>   Bank executives give Rs 4 Lakh Crores worth loans to   Industrialists / Businessmen ( who , sometimes happen to be close relatives / friends )

   
   

>   Bankers " forget " to examine past records of loan-repayments by these individuals 

     


>  Banks do not share among themselves info about " black-listed " borrowers


>  Banks " forget " to inquire if a loanee is a " Benami " company


>  Banks do not incorporate stringent clauses in loan agreements (on purpose )


>  Banks adopt " Forget & Forgive " approach to defaulters


>  For loan recovery , bankers wait for other  bankers to take the lead


>  Before taking action , bankers check-out with people in power


>  When sinking under the burden of NPA , bankers run to Government of India to bail them out through " Bank Re-Capitalization "

     


>  Government oblige by giving money to stressed banks, so that they can survive


>  Government rationalize its bail out by saying, " depositors must be protected " . Sounds so reassuring  !


>  Government then goes out and raises taxes ( direct + indirect ) to balance its books  ( Current Account Deficit ? )

   


In a nutshell :


>  Eventually , honest tax-payers foot the bill, one way or the other 


>  7,000 + loan-defaulting swindlers spend vacation in Switzerland with family ( and their politician friends ) - till they are ready to borrow more !


   

>  Bankers vie with each other to " Re-Schedule Payments " and advance fresh loans to pay off old loans ( Rs 4 lakh Crores of NPA ).
If EU / IMF can do this for Greece , why cannot we ?

   

>  Government will take pride in " Bold Banking Reforms "( to please IMF ? )


>  As a Nation , we are very compassionate !  We cannot let any institution die !

    We are obsessed with keeping it alive at any cost . We must ,
 forever , keep it alive with artificial ventilation / blood transfusion !

 

    It is time to re-think : 


    When a person or an Institution just cannot be kept alive , it must be allowed to die , in a dignified way !


 

    Would it not be far better to protect the small bank-depositors by returning their deposits , rather than infuse Rs 4 lakh Crores into these banks , by way of re-capitalization ?




Am I missing out on something that economists know better ?


-  hemen  parekh


   hcp@RecruitGuru.com

   www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

   June 24 , 2015 


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Sunday 21 June 2015

Growing Faster Than China ?

There is no denying that India has made a lot of progress on the economic front during past 12 months , under structural reforms undertaken by the NDA government

But when Economists and leading Rating Agencies talk of " India's economy is growing at a rate , faster than China's " , some clarifications become necessary

Just look at the following comparison between China and India :

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Parameter       /        China       /         India

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Population     /    1.36 billion      /      1.25   billion

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

GDP              /  $ 9.24 Trillion   /     $  1.88  Trillion

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Life Expectancy  /   75.35 years    /    66.46  years

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Area            /  9.57 million Sq Km  /   2.97 million Sq Km

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Per Capita GDP    /    $  6,807     /     $ 1,498 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GDP Increase   / @ 7% = $ 647 Billion /  @ 8% = $ 150 Billion 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now , of course , it is entirely possible for India's absolute GDP increase to overtake China's absolute GDP increase , if

>  China's growth-rate keeps declining ( > 6  % > 5 % > 4 % > 3 % .... )

and ,

>  India's growth-rate keeps accelerating ( > 9 %  > 10 % > 11 % ......... )


Except that you don't have to be an Economist to guess that no such thing will ever happen  !


It is not that I love NDA less

It is just that I love enlightenment more  !


---  hemen  parekh

www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

21  June   2015

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