Tuesday 4 August 2015

MUAMMAR GADDAFI - A VISIONARY ?

A report says , thousands of illegal North African immigrants swarmed into France/Britain undersea tunnel

On both sides of the tunnel , respective governments are putting up fences / barricades and deploying thousands of policemen , to stop these immigrants from entering Britain

In the first 7 months of 2015 , some 190,000 north Africans have tried to cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy

2,000 died on the way

188,000 were rescued on high seas and permitted to land in Italy

That is some 1,000 per day ! Soon to become 10,000 per day !

And , whereas some European leaders are taking a humanitarian view of this illegal migration , others want to stop this " Human Flood "

May be those who realize that these " Waves " of persecuted and starving people are unstoppable , dare not blame their governments for ignoring what Guardian reported on 01 Sept 2010 , as follows :

"In a highly theatrical visit to Italy this week, Gaddafi warned that Europe would turn "black" unless it was more rigorous in turning back immigrants. Libya is a key transit point for illegal migration from Africa to Europe. The Libyan leader said the bill for sealing the crossing routes would be at least €5bn a year.

While in Rome Gaddafi advised Europeans to convert to Islam and sought to bolster his claim for billions from Europe by warning that millions of Africans were seeking to migrate to the EU.

"We don't know what will be the reaction of the white and Christian Europeans faced with this influx of starving and ignorant Africans," the Libyan leader told a Rome meeting attended by Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian prime minister. "We don't know if Europe will remain an advanced and united continent or if it will be destroyed, as happened with the barbarian invasions."

You may have umpteen reasons to blame Gaddafi but you cannot fault him on his vision !

I foresee something similar happening to Australia in the next 5 years , with millions of poor / starving people from all over Asia , flooding its shores

History has a habit of repeating itself !

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hemen parekh

05 August 2015

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Added on 02 July 2023 :

UK's Sunak plans deal with Italy on Mediterranean migrants, the Telegraph reports

Extract :

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is planning a deal with Italy to stem the number of migrants crossing the Mediterranean and return them to North Africa, the Telegraph reported on Friday.

Sunak had sent Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service Simon Case to Italy in mid-June for two days of meetings with top Italian government officials to work on a deal, the newspaper reported. A government source familiar with the matter confirmed to Reuters that Case was in Italy, without providing any additional details.

"If we are going to be successful in tackling illegal migration we have got to deal with the issue at source as well as focus on small boats," the Telegraph quoted a government source as saying.

The UK and Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding in April to tackle illegal migration under "Strategic Migration Partnership."

"We are cooperating closely with Italy and other European partners to stem illegal migration and tackle people-smuggling gangs which operate cross-border," a UK government spokesperson said. "This is a shared challenge."

Britain had a record 45,000 people coming to the country in small boats across the Channel last year, mainly from France, according to government figures. More than 11,000 have arrived so far this year, according to the government.

Sunak of the Conservative Party has made stopping boat arrivals one of his top five priorities. He has been criticised by some members of his own party and the public for not moving quickly enough to crack down on irregular migration.

Saturday 1 August 2015

A WELCOME PROBLEM ?

India's trade imbalance with China is approx $ 36 billion

With slowing down of Chinese economy and speeding up of Indian economy , it is quite possible that this may get worse

How ?

> To grow at a faster rate , India will need to import more raw materials and

components from wherever these can be got cheaper

> To counter its own slow down , Chinese companies will compete fiercely

( with the rest of the World ) to export its products to India

This is evident in supply of PV Solar Panels from China, where Chinese companies have dropped their prices drastically

This price drop has enabled Chinese companies to export to India, PV Systems worth :

> Rs 352 Crores in 2010-11

> Rs 3,745 Crores in 2014-15

Result :

> India's domestic power output , using PV Systems , went up from 1,000 MW in 2010-11 to 4,000 MW in 2014-15 !

> Average solar power tariff went down from Rs 17 per unit to Rs 5 per unit !

Now , Indian PV System Manufacturers are very unhappy with this Chinese " dumping " , for two reasons :

> Their annual production capacity is only 1300 MW of PV Systems

> They cannot match the Chinese prices

But the Power Minister seems to be saying :

" My target for Solar energy generation is 1,00,000 MW by 2022 .

Of this , Indian Manufacturers can deliver , no more than 10,000 MW

And I want to bring down Solar Power tariff below the current average ,

which is possible only when " Rs / MW of installed capacity " becomes less

than that for coal-based power plants

So , I must buy Solar Plants at less than Rs 5 crores / MW installed capacity

Only Chinese companies can supply me at Rs 3 Crores / MW

For 1 lakh MW ( 100 GW ) target , I need Rs 3 lakh*crores of funds

And the Chinese companies will also get me " Suppliers Credit " @ 2% interest

Last week , 649 companies from all over the World , bid for 20.6 GW of Solar

Power auction in Brazil , which is expected to place orders by Nov 2015

I must place my orders on Chinese Companies before Brazil ties up their production capacities !

Remember , 100 GW of Solar Power will help us,

> Light up 5 Crore homes ( @ 50,000 homes / 100 MW )

> Generate 15 lakh " green jobs "

> Raise our GDP by 0.5 %

Must act fast ! !

Only thing Power Minister would not say publicly is :

" If importing Solar PV Systems from China worth Rs 3 lakh*crores is going to

worsen our trade balance , please treat it as a welcome problem ! "

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hemen parekh

03 Aug 2015

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Non Performing Assets ?

Central Government just announced a package of Rs 70,000 Crores for re-capitalization of Public Sector Banks ( PSB ) , spread over 4 years

PSBs are carrying on their books , NPA ( Non Performing Assets ) of some Rs 2.8 Lakh Crores ( 70 % of Rs 4 lakh crores for all banks )

NPA is a euphemism for bank-loans given to rich businessmen / industrialists , who are refusing to re-pay !

Apart from defaulting on loan repayments , some 17 of them are even defaulting to pay up Rs 2.14 lakh crores worth of Income Tax !

From where is Central Government going to get those Rs 70,000 crores ?

From my tax money

I cannot complain !

Because , if the Government did not dole out this largess , then those banks may declare bankruptcy

And I will lose all my savings and fixed deposits

Better to pay some tax than lose my life's savings !

But what about those tax-payers who have no bank savings worth protecting ?

Why must they be punished for " Crimes of Commissions and Omissions " committed by :

> Lax ( or conniving ? ) Bank Managers who gave out those loans without

sufficient collateral or dragged their feet on recovery ?

> Loan Defaulters who siphoned off the loan money in personal accounts or

undeclared assets , with impunity ?

> Law Makers who failed to pass iron-clad acts with stringent penalties for

willful defaulters ?

In the meantime , some 17,000 farmers continue to commit suicide EVERY YEAR , for being unable to repay bank loans of a few thousands of rupees !

And the worst part is :

History will repeat itself , all over , 10 years from now !

Vested interests will ensure " statusquo ante " !

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hemen parekh

02 Aug 2015

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Sunday 26 July 2015

If Mohamed cannot go to Mountain

There is an old saying:

" If Mohamed cannot go to Mountain , let Mountain go to Mohamed "

In today's internet era , an equivalent would be :

" If people cannot go to where jobs are , let jobs go to where people live "

Remember , in 2015 , it is much easier / cheaper to import " digital service " based jobs into India , then to export people to foreign countries , where they will face a lot of resistance / animosity from local citizens

Examples :

Call Canters / BPO / RPO / LPO / KPO ....any PO ( Process Outsourcing )

May be this is what was in the mind of Shri Ravi Shankar Prasad ( Minister for Communication and Information Technology ) , when he proposed setting up of 480 Call Centers ( @ 100 seats each )

As per Minister ,

> These will be set up in smaller towns

> These will be distributed State-Population wise

> Union Government will give Rs 1 lakh subsidy per seat

> Established Company will hand-hold a local entrepreneur for setting up

the Call Center

> Local entity can be an agency ,society ,individual ,partnership ,Company

> State Governments will need to provide electricity / security

> Center will soon issue call for expression of interest

But with 100 persons working in each shift , that would generate employment for only ,

480*100*3 = 1,44,000 youth

And we have 12 million people joining our work force every year !

Can we find ways to generate in small towns , millions of jobs for 3.5 million students graduating from our colleges , each year ?

It is possible , with following " OUT OF THE BOX " thinking :

# SPACE

India boasts of over 1.3 million schools . These school buildings are occupied for only 8/10 hours per day

Let Government frame rules which encourage these school-buildings to turn into Call Centers after 5 pm

For a 100 seat Center , Government is planning to give a subsidy of Rs 100 lakhs

If 25 % of this subsidy is passed onto a school , it will be happy to lease out its premises to a Call Center

# BROAD-BAND

Under " Digital India " program , let Union Government provide a 100 Mb broadband connection to each such " School-cum- Call Center " , free of cost

That will also help the students to freely access digital education content throughout the day

# BLACK MONEY

Launch an Amnesty Scheme under which black money is permitted to be invested into setting up such Call Centers

No questions asked as to the source . No penalty to be paid . No income tax on earnings for 10 years

There can be no better way to put these money to a mainstream and productive use !

All that debate of " Rewarding " the tax-evaders while " Penalizing " the honest tax payers , is merely academic

India's problems are unlikely to be solved by academicians !

These can be solved , only by pragmatists !

Luck happens when " preparedness " meets " opportunity "

My suggestions will prepare us to make 21st Century , an Indian Century !

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hemen parekh

27 July 2015

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Saturday 25 July 2015

Building Castles in Air ?

Somewhere I read :

" It is alright to build castles in air , as long as you know how to place a foundation underneath , later on "

Here are some examples of castles that our Governments have built ( - in air ? ) , recently :

CASTLES

Government / No of houses to be built / Period / Ave No per day

# Maharashtra / 1.1 Million / 2015 - 20 / 602 per day

# Gujarat / 5 Million / 2013 - 18 / 2,740 per day

# Centre / 20 Million / 2015 - 22 / 7,827 per day

I assume that it will take , at least ONE YEAR to organize :

# Land

Find / acquire , thousands of vacant plots all over State / Country

# Funds

Arrange loans / borrowings as follows :

* Maharashtra............... Rs 1,00,000 Crores

* Gujarat....................... Rs 5,00,000 Crores

* All India...................... Rs 20,00,000 Crores

# Contractors

Invite tenders / negotiate / sign building contracts with hundreds of really

big contractors , who can mobilize billions of rupees worth of construction

machinery , crores of rupees of working capital and lakhs of manpower

So , if ONE year is lost before construction starts , then the " Average Number of houses to be built per day " will substantially go up from above mentioned figures

I leave it to you to work out how many houses ( - 500 sq ft flats ? ) will need to be built EVERY HOUR !

FOUNDATION

Invite WinSun Decoration Design Engineering Company of China , to bring its 3D house printing technology to India , by setting up 100 factories for pre-fabricating 3D printed houses

Then leave it to thousands of small builders to " Assemble " on site , a few thousands houses each, on a " Rate Contract " basis

Both , in " Pre-fabrication " and in " On site Assembly " , mass production is the only foundation !

Why WinSun ?

# On 29 March 2014 , WinSun constructed TEN , 3D printed houses ( 200 sq meter each ) in Shanghai , each costing $ 4,800 ( approx Rs 3 lakh ! )

# On 17 July 2015 , using its 3D printing technology , WinSun built a 2 storey villa , in just 3 HOURS !

# WinSun holds 98 patents for construction materials

# For 3D printing of houses , WinSun , mostly uses recycled construction materials

# 3D house-printing technology saves,

* 30% -60 % of building materials

* 70 % of production time

* 80 % of construction cost

# Egypt Government has placed on WinSun , an order for supplying 20,000 pre-fabricated , 3D printed houses

# In Egypt , WinSun will establish 12 Dream Factories ( to build pre-fabricated houses ) , within 2 years

These factories will mostly use desert sand as its main construction material , which was found ideal for 3D printing of houses !

# In next 3 years , WinSun will set up ( in JV with local parties ) , similar factories in 20 countries , including Saudi Arabia , UAE , Qatar , Mexico , S. Korea , Russia , Morocco , Tunisia , and USA

It is high time , we implement " Look East " policy of Shri Narendra Modi-ji

I hope this suggestion will reach the people responsible for building those castles in air !

And , I hope Senior Executives of all the big Construction Companies of India ( L&T / Godrej / Tata / Shapoorji Pallonji / Shirke / Mahindra / Gammons / HCC etc ) will take the next flight to China !

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hemen parekh

26 July 2015

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Friday 24 July 2015

If You cannot lick them ; Join them

CAIT stands for Confederation of All India Traders

It has over 4.5 million retailers as its members

Till a few weeks back , CAIT was opposed to e-commerce in retail trade

But when it realized that the e-Commerce tide was unstoppable , it decided to join it !

Recently , CAIT General Secretary , Khandelwal said :

" E-commerce is a reality. We cannot be blind to it. Through ‘e-Lala’, our aim is to retain consumers who were traditionally with brick-and-mortar outlets but are now shifting away to online stores

We are being forced by circumstances to get into this. We have to move with the times ”

By October 2015 , CAIT plans to launch its own e-Commerce portal " e-Lala" to take on the likes of Amazon / Flipkart / Snapdeal / Myntra etc

But unlike these existing e-Commerce portals , CAIT does not have a war-chest of billions of dollars , to

> Set up Fulfillment Centers ( Warehouses ) all over the country

> Advertise online / offline , in a big way

But when you have 4.5 million Fulfillment Centers ( of course small ) , spread all over the entire country , covering every street , then why do you need to build central warehouses ?

And when 10 million delivery boys / girls , deliver a billion packages every day to millions of households , with a plastic bag / card-box carton that reads " YOUR e-LALA DELIVERY " , then why do you need to waste money on advertising ?

Now the bad news :

> How will e-Lala control the quality of products being delivered by 4.5

million retailers ?

> How will it ensure timely delivery ?

> How will it ensure that Member-Retailers do not overcharge ?

> Existing e-Commerce portals buy in bulk , directly from the manufacturers ; then offer heavy discounts over the printed MRP .

How will e-Lala counter this ?

> Today , barely 5 % of the retail buyers , pay thru Credit Cards . 95 % pay in cash

If e-Lala insists on advance payment using Credit Card thru a online Payment Gateway , will this put-off buyers from using e-Lala portal ?

Again , today , almost all buyers pay " Cash Against Delivery " to their neighborhood retailer.

They may not like to pay in advance of the delivery !

> To- day, buyers do refuse to accept deliveries for various reasons , such as :

# Wrong product or labeling or package size or brand

# Expiry date exceeded or about to expire

# Even , change of mind !

All because , there is no online advance payment , and nothing is lost by refusing !

> To-day , buyers are even able to return the purchased goods to their neighborhood retailer , a couple of days later.

And the retailer usually accepts the " Return " , in order to retain the

client on a long-term basis - a client whom , he knows personally !

This will not be easy to duplicate in E-Lala ecosystem !

This is not to say that CAIT's e-Lala experiment is doomed !

If anything , e-Lala would do well to think through these issues , then provide answers thru a FAQ page on its e-com web site

And in order to crystallize this thinking , it may not be too late even now , for CAIT to host: TRUE / FALSE : YES/ NO : MULTIPLE CHOICE : online Questionnaires , on its existing web site

One questionnaire for the End-Consumers and another one for its 4.5 million member retailers

In today's " Dog it Dog " world of e-commerce , one can neither dictate nor predict , a competitor's actions

That kind of wishful thinking just does not work

To stay two steps ahead of the Competitors , you need to think and decide :

" What am I going to do this morning ? "

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hemen parekh

25 July 2015

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