Not a Bigger Hole : What we need is a Black-Hole

 

Not a Bigger Hole : What we need is a Black-Hole

 

Context

Cigarettes are set to get costlier from February by up to 20%, with premium large sticks facing the steepest increase, due to an increase in taxation. This may force manufacturers to exit popular price points like ₹10 and ₹20, impacting sales volume for the next two-three quarters, industry executives and analysts said.

The "unprecedented increase in duty" will cause immense hardship and loss to more than 40 million farmers, MSMEs, retailers and local value chains
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My Take :

>                   Going Up in Smoke ?  ………………………. 18  Aug  2013

Extract :

We must find a solution that , not only saves those 60 lakh but also continue to provide livelihood to 380 lakhs

That cannot be done in one - or even five - years , but it is entirely possible to solve this problem over , 20 years , as follows :

>   Thru appropriate legislation , phase out tobacco industry by 2033
>   Immediately stop expansion of existing units
>   Do not allow new units to come up
>   Place a recruitment freeze in tobacco industry - no fresh hiring at any level
>   No replacement for retiring employees , after 2018
>   Provide incentives to industry to redeploy capital / manpower in alternate industries - especially those industries with large scope for creation of new jobs
>   Give generous tax-breaks to industry to remain profitable , even as they wind-up operations
>   Provide incentives to put up new-industry projects in less industrialized regions
>   Provide incentives for re-training existing workers in new skills in demand by others
>   Subsidize Voluntary Retirement Schemes of industry

 

 

>    Tobacco Extinction / Endgame Policy 2040” ………………. 23  Nov  2025

 

Extract :

“  Respected Mandaviyaji :

My humble request: 

Announce a National TOBACCO EXTINCTION POLICY 2040

I respectfully urge you to consider formally announcing a TOBACCO

 EXTINCTION POLICY 2040 (you may call it Tobacco-Free India 2040 –

 Extinction Policy), which would:

1.             Adopt an explicit Endgame target

§          Legally adopt the target of <5% tobacco use prevalence by 2040

§          (15+ population), with intermediate goals for 2030 and 2035. National  Tobacco Control Programme

§          

§           

2.             Freeze and progressively shrink the supply side

§          No new licences for tobacco cultivation, manufacturing or large-scale

§           trade.

§          Strict cap on retail outlets with tobacco vendor licensing and reduced

§           outlet density each 5-year period. National Tobacco Control Programme

§           

§          Progressive reduction of allowed production volumes, notified in advance

§           so industry can plan an orderly exit.

§           

3.             Phase-out roadmap for industry and farmers 

Building on my 2013 suggestions:

§          Recruitment and replacement freeze in tobacco manufacturing and

§          organized trade; no replacement of retirees beyond a notified date.

§          myblogepage.blogspot.com

§          Diversification packages for farmers and bidi rollers: assured credit,

§           buy-back and extension support for alternative crops and non-tobacco

§           livelihoods. National Tobacco Control Programme

§          Transition tax incentives for companies that redeploy capital into

§          health-positive, job-rich sectors (renewables, food processing, textiles,

§          logistics, etc.).

4.              

5.             Demand-side measures to protect the next generation

§          Consolidate and strengthen measures already highlighted in your own

§           report under “Tobacco-Free Future Generation” (complete ban on

§           flavours, point-of-sale marketing restrictions, stronger school-zone

§           protections, etc.). National Tobacco Control Programme

§          Aggressive youth-centric mass media campaigns and digital

§           interventions to prevent initiation.

6.             Ring-fenced funding for transition

§          Earmark a fixed share of existing tobacco tax revenue into a

§                health system costs,

§                livelihood diversification,

§                and large-scale cessation support (mCessation, TCCs, NCD clinics).

§                National Tobacco Control Programme

§           dedicated Tobacco Transition & Health Fund for 20 years, to

§           finance:

7.             High-level multi-ministry mechanism

§          Set up a Cabinet-level Tobacco Endgame Council, chaired by you, with representation from Agriculture, Labour, MSME, Finance, and Women & Child Development, to regularly monitor progress and remove inter-ministerial bottlenecks.

---

Why this would be historic for your tenure

o                  You already lead a Ministry widely recognised as a global leader in tobacco

o                   control because of COTPA, NTCP, large graphic warnings and bans on certain

o                   products. National Tobacco Control Programme+1

o                 

o                  TOBACCO EXTINCTION POLICY 2040, you would:

o                  By formally announcing and operationalising a 

§                Align India with emerging international “Endgame” countries such as

§                 Finland and New Zealand, which are planning to phase out tobacco sales

§                 within a defined timeframe. National Tobacco Control Programme

§               

§                Save lakhs of Indian lives each year in perpetuity.

§                 

§                Free up lakhs of crores in health and productivity costs for growth-

§                enhancing investments.

§                Demonstrate that India can protect both public health and

§                 livelihoods through a planned, humane transition – exactly what I had

§                 argued for in 2013.

o                   

 

with regards,

hemen Parekh

www.HemenParekh.ai  /  www.IndiaAGI.ai  /  www.My-Teacher.in  /  06 Jan @026