To:
Shri Mandavaya-ji
Union Minister for Health & Family Welfare
Government of India
New Delhi
Subject:
From “Going Up in Smoke?” (2013) to a National TOBACCO EXTINCTION POLICY – Time for a 2040 Commitment
Respected Mandaviyaji
Namaskar.
In August 2013, I wrote an open letter / blog titled “Going Up in Smoke?”
addressed to our national leadership.
(Link: https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2013/08/going-up-in-smoke.html)
In that note, I drew attention to two uncomfortable facts reported then in Times of
India:
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India’s tobacco industry supports roughly 3.8 crore livelihoods.
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At the same time, tobacco use was estimated to be killing around 60 lakh
Indians every year, including about 6 lakh non-smokers exposed to
second-hand smoke. myblogepage.blogspot.com
I had argued that we cannot choose between saving 60 lakh lives and
protecting 3.8 crore livelihoods. Instead, we must phase out tobacco over
about 20 years, while simultaneously creating alternative employment and
redeploying capital.
Specifically, I had suggested (in summary): myblogepage.blogspot.com
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A time-bound phase-out of the tobacco industry (originally by 2033).
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Immediate freeze on expansion of existing units, and no new units.
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A recruitment freeze and non-replacement of retirees after a cut-off date.
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Incentives to redeploy capital and manpower into job-creating sectors.
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Tax breaks and transition support so that companies can wind down without sudden shocks.
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Retraining, VRS support and incentives for locating new industries in less-developed regions.
Twelve years later, your Ministry now has both evidence and momentum to go
beyond incremental control and announce a National Tobacco Extinction /
Endgame Policy.
Why this is the right moment
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Tobacco use is finally declining – but not fast enough
The Government’s own data (GATS-1 vs GATS-2) show a 17% relative
Yet, India still has one of the largest absolute numbers of tobacco users
in the world, and over 1.35 million deaths annually are attributed to
tobacco use. National Tobacco Control Programme+1
Reduction in adult tobacco use between 2009–10 and 2016–17,
thanks to NTCP, COTPA enforcement, warnings, and bans on certain
smokeless products and e-cigarettes. National Tobacco Control Programme
-
Economic burden far exceeds any revenue gain
The latest Report on Tobacco Control in India 2022 estimates that tobacco-
This dwarfs government revenue from tobacco taxes and any perceived
benefit of employment in this sector.
Attributable diseases and deaths among adults 35+ cost the Indian economy
around ₹1.77 lakh crore in 2017–18, more than 1% of GDP. National
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Your own Ministry has already articulated an “Endgame” vision
The 2022 report describes the contours of a National Tobacco Control
In other words, the intellectual and policy groundwork for “Tobacco Endgame”
is already done inside your Ministry. What is now needed is political
ownership, a clear name, and time-bound milestones.
Policy aimed at a “Tobacco-Free India” and “Tobacco-Free Future
Generation” by 2040, with a target of <5% tobacco prevalence (15+
years) by 2040. National Tobacco Control Programme
My humble request:
Announce a National TOBACCO EXTINCTION POLICY 2040
I respectfully urge you to consider formally announcing a TOBACCO
EXTINCTION POLICY 2040 (you may call it Tobacco-Free India 2040 –
Extinction Policy), which would:
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Adopt an explicit Endgame target
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Legally adopt the target of <5% tobacco use prevalence by 2040
(15+ population), with intermediate goals for 2030 and 2035. National
-
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Freeze and progressively shrink the supply side
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No new licences for tobacco cultivation, manufacturing or large-scale
trade.
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Strict cap on retail outlets with tobacco vendor licensing and reduced
outlet density each 5-year period. National Tobacco Control Programme
-
Progressive reduction of allowed production volumes, notified in advance
so industry can plan an orderly exit.
-
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Phase-out roadmap for industry and farmers
Building on my 2013 suggestions:
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Recruitment and replacement freeze in tobacco manufacturing and
organized trade; no replacement of retirees beyond a notified date.
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Diversification packages for farmers and bidi rollers: assured credit,
buy-back and extension support for alternative crops and non-tobacco
livelihoods. National Tobacco Control Programme
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Transition tax incentives for companies that redeploy capital into
health-positive, job-rich sectors (renewables, food processing, textiles,
logistics, etc.).
-
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Demand-side measures to protect the next generation
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Consolidate and strengthen measures already highlighted in your own
report under “Tobacco-Free Future Generation” (complete ban on
flavours, point-of-sale marketing restrictions, stronger school-zone
protections, etc.). National Tobacco Control Programme
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Aggressive youth-centric mass media campaigns and digital
interventions to prevent initiation.
-
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Ring-fenced funding for transition
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Earmark a fixed share of existing tobacco tax revenue into a
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health system costs,
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livelihood diversification,
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and large-scale cessation support (mCessation, TCCs, NCD clinics).
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dedicated Tobacco Transition & Health Fund for 20 years, to
finance:
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High-level multi-ministry mechanism
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Set up a Cabinet-level Tobacco Endgame Council, chaired by you, with representation from Agriculture, Labour, MSME, Finance, and Women & Child Development, to regularly monitor progress and remove inter-ministerial bottlenecks.
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Why this would be historic for your tenure
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You already lead a Ministry widely recognised as a global leader in tobacco
control because of COTPA, NTCP, large graphic warnings and bans on certain
products. National Tobacco Control Programme+1
TOBACCO EXTINCTION POLICY 2040, you would:
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By formally announcing and operationalising a
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Align India with emerging international “Endgame” countries such as
Finland and New Zealand, which are planning to phase out tobacco sales
within a defined timeframe. National Tobacco Control Programme
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Save lakhs of Indian lives each year in perpetuity.
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Free up lakhs of crores in health and productivity costs for growth-
enhancing investments.
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Demonstrate that India can protect both public health and
livelihoods through a planned, humane transition – exactly what I had
argued for in 2013.
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In 2013, I could only propose a 20-year phase-out, based on simple common
sense. Today, your Ministry’s own data and policy documents strongly vindicate
that early appeal and provide a ready-made framework for implementation.
I therefore request you, with folded hands, to kindly:
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Direct your officials to convert the existing Policy draft into a
formally notified “Tobacco Extinction / Endgame
Policy 2040”, with clear milestones and accountability.
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Place this policy before the Union Cabinet for approval and public
announcement at an appropriate national forum (for example, World No
Tobacco Day 2026 or a major health summit).
If my 2013 note “Going Up in Smoke?” contributed even a little to this final step, I
would consider that the most meaningful birthday gift life could have given me.
With warm regards and best wishes for your continued leadership,
Hemen Parekh
www.HemenParkh.ai
www.IndiaAGI.ai
www.My-Teacher.in
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