Poll Promises ? Tall Promises ?

Yesterday , following Supreme Court directives , the Election Commission , revised , " Model Code of Conduct " , containing guidelines on what kind of poll promises , political parties can incorporate in their poll manifestos

GUIDELINES

>   Parties shall make only those promises which are possible to be fulfilled

>   It is expected that manifestos also reflect the rationale for the promises

     and broadly indicate the ways and means to meet the financial

    requirements for it

>   Party in power shall stop advertizing for publicity of achievements

REACTIONS

>   BJP             ( Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi )

    "  BJP never makes unrealistic promises. We will assure the EC that our

    promises can be realized "

>  CONGRESS   ( a leader said , anonymously )

    " The Congress Manifesto would reflect the real issues and not make

     empty promises  "

Although , neither BJP , nor Congress , have released their poll manifestos so far , their leaders have openly " promised " , the following in election rallies :

BJP

>  In 5 years , we will construct 100 smart Mega-Cities

    ( works out to a brand new mega-city , every 18 days  ! )

    Now each mega city would cost about Rs 70,000  Crores ( current

    estimate for Dholera - Gujarat )

    That means , to build 100 mega-cities , BJP government ( if elected ),

    must find,

    Rs  7,000,000  Crores  ( only  !  )

    I suppose, they will succeed in convincing the EC , that ALL the black

    money that they will bring back from those Swiss bank accounts , will

    take care of the financing issue !

    But there is a real danger that the EC may turn around and ask :

    " Modi Saheb ,

    To people of Gujarat you promised ( in your Manifesto dt 6 Dec 2012 ),

    that , if voted to power , you will construct 5 Million houses for the poor,

   in 5 years

   That works out to 2,740 new houses EVERYDAY for 1825 days

   420 days have elapsed since you assumed power in Gujarat

   Where are those  11,50,685  houses , which are supposed to be ready ? "

 

CONGRESS

>  We will create 100 million new " skilled " jobs for youth in next 10 years

    That is 50 million ( 500 lakhs ) jobs in next 5 years (  if voted to power  -

    hence not to worry  !  )

    Now , even  a small time industry ( SME ) , needs Rs 10 lakhs worth of

    investment ( fixed + working capital ) , to hire ONE person

   So , creation of 500 lakh ( 50 million ) jobs ( in 5 years ) would require,

   Rs 50 Million Million

   ie : 5,000,000  Crores  !

  Election Commission :

  Rahulji , From where will you find this money  ?

       

  Rahulji :

  No need to depend upon those Swiss bankers to return that black money !

Our industrialist fund donors and scam-involved Netas / Officers , have enough    money stashed away locally , in bank lockers , gold , land etc

AAP

And , not to be outdone , even AAP succumbed to such " Selling of Dreams " , by promising the people of Delhi , that , if voted to power , it will construct 500 new schools in 5 years !

That is ONE new school every 4th day  ! - 12 schools in those 48 days  ?

And my estimate is , those 500 schools each, will need Rs 10 crores to build -

ie:  Rs 5,000 crores

And each of those schools will need Rs 1 Crore per year by way of staff salaries and maintenance - an annual burden of Rs 500 Crores  !

Normally cynical about poll promises , I feel , this time around , people of India will , carefully read the manifestos

Some may even complain to the EC , if they find " Tall Promises "  !

*  hemen  parekh  (  24  Feb  2014  /  Mumbai  )

  

  

  

     

NaMo replies !

In a letter to Narendra Modi , Arvind Kejriwal raised three issues / questions , viz :,

>  If you were to become PM , will you reverse the decision on gas price  ?

>  As a PM , what will you do to bring back the black money stashed in

    Swiss bank accounts  ?

>  Who is financing BJP's election campaign ?  Is it Reliance  ? What is the

    nature of your " relationship " with Mukesh Ambani  ?

No one - Arvind included - expects NaMo to reply

But , if NaMo was bent upon committing a " Political Harakiri " ,  his reply would be short - and sweet - as follows :

-----------------------------------------------------------

Dear Arvindji

Thank you for writing

I am glad that you consider my chances of becoming the next PM , to be so very high . It came as a breath of fresh air after listening to all those " gallies " from lowly Congress Netas

Of course , by envisaging me as the next PM of India , you have run the risk of being called , the B team of BJP  !

But then , how can I  stop an Aam Aadmi like you from dreaming  !

In a normal course , I would have liked to answer your letter , only AFTER , I became the PM ( - since , RTI would , in any case , oblige me to do so  )

However , since I consider you to be my " friend " ( - isn't " enemy of your enemy , a friend  " ?  ) , here are my very relevant answers to your equally irrelevant questions

  :

Q:  1

Of course , not  !

Q:  2

Of course , yes  !

Since every MP of BJP has signed an affidavit , saying he / she has not stashed away , any black money in Swiss banks

So , obviously , all the black money lying in Swiss banks , must belong to the Congressmen - no  ?

(  please note : I have no knowledge  of any banks other than Swiss banks )

Q:  3

Everyone knows who finances BJP's election campaign  !

Same guys who are financing the election campaigns of Congress , SP , BSP , DMK , AIDMK , BJD , RJD , TMC , CPI (M) ..etc etc

Since they have smaller donations , they are better placed to answer your questions

I am taking the liberty to forward to them , copies of your letter , with a request to send their replies to you directly . In future, send copies yourself

As to my relationship with Mukesh is concerned  -  he is just a friend

 Haven't you heard , " A friend in need is a friend indeed "  ?

with regards ,

Yours Transparently ,

Narendra Modi

PS :

In case you are planning to sit on a dharana outside my office in near future , I am not attending CM's office for the next 3 months

Why didn't you do the same ?

Lastly - please do not leak out my reply to a certain TV anchor ( you know who ) , who  , unashamedly digs out historical facts ,  to embarrass   my party spokespersons like Meenakshi Lekhi / Smriti Irani etc .

Very un-gallant  !

-----------------------------------------------------------

*   hemen   parekh  (  23  Feb  2014  /  Mumbai  )

Deciding is Difficult

How do you go about deciding who shall be your candidate for the forthcoming elections  ?

For most political parties , only one thing matters most, viz :,

"  Is he ( or she ), likely to win  ? What is the probability of winning ? "

It is this same simple " rule " that people all around the World use , whether betting on a ,

>   horse  ( in a derby  )

>   batsman  (  in a cricket match  )

>   car driver  (  in Grand Prix  )

Or ,

>   politician  (  in an election  )

Nothing else matters . Ask any " Bookie "  !

But AAP  ( Aam  Aadmi  Party  ) added some more factors to be considered while selecting its candidates for 2014 elections , viz : ,

>  He must be honest and non-corruptible

>  He must not be greedy for power

>  He shall be a firm believer in AAP's " Moral Philosophy "

>  He must not have any criminal background

Except for the last point , others are very difficult to verify

But , to me , it seems AAP forgot to mention ( intentionally  ?  ) , the following , very important points :

>  He must have enough accumulated wealth or known / public , " Sources

    of  legitimate Income " , that he does not need to worry about how to

    survive on a MP / MLA's salary , while devoting full time to his duties,

    (  while remaining " Non-corrupt " )

    Not being the " only earning member " of his family is an advantage  !

>  He must be well - known amongst the local voters as a " Social Activist ",

    so that , he has a high " Recall Value " , when the voters look at his name

    on the EVM

Arvind - and his colleagues - need to explain these " Selection Criteria " to the voters , again and again , so that there is no opposition / dissent of the kind we are witnessing , upon declaration of the first list of 20 ( Celebrity ? ) candidates

Still better would be :

>   Design a Online form , listing ALL the Selection Criteria

>   Assign " Weightages " to each criteria

>   Assign a " Rating Scale " of 1 to 5 ( 1=worst / 5= Best )

>   Get 50 Core Committee  Members of AAP , to rate each " Nominee "

     candidate , for each Selection Criteria , online ( without getting

     influenced by anyone )

>   Let the software compute the " Overall Scores " for each candidate

>   Let the software compute the " Percentile Scores " for each candidate

>   Let the software declare the " Winner "  !

If 1.6 million citizens of Estonia can " elect " all the members of their Parliament  ONLINE , then surely , AAP geeks should face no problem in this utterly transparent method !

Let them read , " Wisdom of the Crowd " !

As with everything else , AAP must blaze a new path in its selection process

*   hemen  parekh  (  21  Feb  2014  /  Mumbai  )

Arvind is an Anarchist !

He did not ,

-  Spray black pepper in Lok Sabha

-  Take off shirt in UP Assembly

-  Slap a marshal in J&K Assembly

-  Shout in the well of Delhi Assembly

-  Snatch papers / Threw chairs / Broke mikes in Rajya Sabha

Nor did he ,

-  Accept cash donations for AAP ( with or without receipts )

-  Buy out Congress MLAs

-  Give in to own greedy party-men

-  Ride with red beacon flashing

-  Appoint Chamcha Ministers

Neither did he ,

-  Give out contracts to cousins

-  Forgot to file Income Tax returns

-  Refuse  to vacate government bungalow

-  Go on foreign junket at govt expenses

-  Appoint toll agencies for a " consideration "

All that he did was ,

-  Made minor honest mistakes and apologized

-  Started audit of power discoms

-  Filed FIR for corruption in Jal Board / CWG / Reliance / Central Govt

-  Sat on a peaceful dharna when stopped by police

-  Try to pass a Jan Lokpal bill ( subjecting himself )

-  Resigned - rather than compromise with his principles

 

But Congress-men and the BJP-men and the TV Anchors  say :

"  Arvind is an Anarchist

   Arvind is an Escapist

   Arvind is an Opportunist

   Arvind is an Egotist

 

   Arvind has no experience  "

I  am glad,

Arvind has no experience of the kind they talk of  !

His lack of " dirty political experience " is our best hope

*  hemen  parekh  (  20  Feb  2014  /  Mumbai  )

  

Darkness at Noon !

Some 70 years ago , when Italian scientist Enrico Fermi succeeded in exploding the first atom bomb ( Project Manhattan ) , the secret message sent to the President of America read ,

"  The Italian Navigator has landed  "

American government did not want its citizens to know that it has mastered the deadliest weapon ever invented

Yesterday , closer home , on the shores of India , another Italian Mariner landed

She did not want the people of India to know , how Telengana Bill got passed

So , the live telecast of Lok Sabha was " blacked out "

According to eye-witness , Dinesh Trivedi ( MP - TMC ) ,

>  Army was deployed all around Lok Sabha building

>  MPs had to park their cars outside and walk down

>  Everyone started shouting when bill got tabled

>  No MP could argue for or against the bill

>  18  Congress MPs ( from Andhra ) were suspended and prevented from

     participating

>  3 Congress Ministers ( from Andhra ) rushed into the well , shouting

>  Doors of Lok Sabha were closed shut ( - to prevent walk-out ? )

>  Live telecast was stopped

To top it all ,

>  Division did not take place using Voting Buttons on MP's seats

>  Speaker Meira Kumar suddenly turned a Maths-Wizard , and within a

     matter of seconds , counted how many of the 542 MPs stood up in favor

     of the bill - obviously many more than 272 , according to her maths !

All thru the pandemonium , Mauni Man Mohan Singhji and Madam Mariner ,

sat in stoic silence  !

Now , people of India know why , over the last 3 years , Kapil Sibal , Salman Khurshid etc kept telling Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal ,

"  Laws cannot be enacted on the streets . Lok Sabha is the proper forum "

Of course   !

If you enact the laws on the streets , how can you stop ,

>    People from watching the  " Riot of the Rotten Rats "  ?

>    People from asking you to resign  ?

Now we know why Arvind Kejriwal wanted to pass the Jan LokPal Bill in the Ram Lila Grounds - out in the open - in front of the people

Poor chap  !

He resigned because he could not pass the bill , even inside Vidhaan Sabha

No such compulsion for Man Mohan Singhji

For him , it was as easy as switching off the telecast to create ,

DARKNESS   AT   NOON 

No need to resign , Man Mohanji,

Lok Sabha elections are just around the corner

And , even if people cannot " See " , they are " Listening " !

One suggestion,

As a last straw ( on Democracy's  back  ? ) , in the next 6 days ( before Model Code of Conduct kicks in ) , get the President to sign Ordinances , covering those six , pet  anti-corruption bills of Rahulji

Although , I suspect , Pranabda will refuse to sign these  !

*   hemen   parekh  (  19  Feb  2014  /  Mumbai  )

Needed - some Simple Answers !

This is with reference to the controversy surrounding the pricing of KG-6 gas of Reliance , which started with $ 2.4 , is currently $ 4.2 and slated to rise to $ 8.4 / unit , from April 2014

Writing in yesterday's Times of India , ( Swaminomics ) , eminent economist , Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar , made following points  :

>   Reliance ( KG - 6 ) accounts for only 10 % of the gas production in our

     country . Balance 90 % is by Public Sector Companies such as ONGC etc

>   Hence , any increase in selling price will mostly benefit government itself

     ( Any idea , what will government do with this windfall  ? )

>   Price - hike envisaged is recommended by a committee headed by Mr C

     Rangrajan  ( - implying , infallible / sacrosanct  ?  )

>   By introducing price control on gas , " India's name is mud globally , and

     top exploration companies now avoid India "

>   An economic rule of thumb is that " traded Commodities " should be

     priced on par with the import price ( my question : irrespective of the

     actual cost of production in India ? )

     The Rangrajan price of $ 8 / unit , is well below the import price

Not being an economist , I am confused  !

May be Mr Aiyar can dispel my following doubts  :

#   By taking out of our own soil ( or sea ) , does gas become a " traded

      commodity "  ? - even if entirely sold in India ?

#    Is KG-6 gas a " Natural Resource " which belongs to the Nation - and

       not to Reliance  ?

#    Is Reliance the " Owner " of the gas or a mere " Contractor "  ?

#    Would Mr Aiyar , want the Central Government to extend the same logic

      to other " Natural Resources " ( belonging to the country ) , being dug

      out from the earth ( by private companies ) , such as :

      *   Oil / Coal / Shale Gas etc  (  Fossil Fuels )

      *   Ores of Iron / Copper / Zinc / Aluminum etc

      *   Trees ( timber ) that grow in our jungles

      *   Any number of minor minerals / chemicals

      Should these too , be treated as " Traded Commodities " , whose local

      selling prices must be same as Imported prices ?

#    What about the air / wind that blows freely over our land  ?

      Does it belong to the Nation or not  ?

      Or , does it belong to the Companies setting up  WIND FARMS  , to

      generate electricity  ?

      Should such power be " Price Controlled " or not  ?

#    What about the Sunlight that falls on our vast land  ?

      Who does it belong to  ? To our government or to the companies setting

      up mega Solar Power Projects  ?

     Should there be a price control on such power - produced , using a  National Resource  ?

#    What about the hydro - power generated by private sector companies

     from the water flowing in our Country's rivers  ?

     Does - or does not - that water belong to the Nation  ?

     Should not such power be price - controlled  ?

#   Tomorrow , if a private sector company ( or a consortium of Indian

      Companies , in joint venture with foreign companies ) , invest Rs 1 Lakh

      Crores , to build the 22 Km long Kalpsar Dam across the Bay of Cambay

      in Gujarat , and generate 10,000 MW of power from Oceanic Tides  , -

     can they be allowed to set any selling price  ? At International price  ?

     I suppose , it would be next to impossible for them to " Export " such

     power beyond the shores of India  !

#   Incidentally , what about the Airwaves ( the 2G / 3G Spectrum )  ?

     Is that also a Natural Resource which belongs to the Nation ?

     Having " licensed " it from the Central Government  , can Mobile

     Phone companies , set any selling prices for their services  ?

Even with a combined debt of around Rs 2 Lakh Crores , how are these

    Mobile companies , able to deliver ( nearly ? ) cheapest mobile phone

    services in the entire World ? May be at 10 % of international price  ?

#   In ALL of the above - mentioned cases , should Central Government

     carefully calculate / frequently audit , the " Cost of Production "  ? Then

    link the " Local / Domestic , Selling Prices "  to such " Cost of Production "

    allowing certain  pre-determined " Return on Investment "  ?

#   Even as we agree that " Export prices " of gas are governed by prevailing   

     international prices , how come the " Domestic Prices " of gas are vastly

     different in different countries , ranging from under $ 1 to $ 5 / unit  ?

     Does this itself , not prove that , in each country , domestic prices are

    linked to their own local " Cost of Production "  ?

#  Very often , have we not exported , food grains , at " Below the Cost " ?

Mr  AIYAR ,

You will be doing a great service to millions of ignoramus like me , by offering your own " Views " on the points raised above

And , I suppose , since the fall in production from KG - 6 , is purely and entirely , due to " Technically Sound " reasons , raising of the selling price to

$ 8 ( or even $ 16 / - ! ) , won't result in any increase in production !

Time alone will tell  !

*   hemen  parekh  (  17  Feb  2014  /  Mumbai  )