Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Monday, 6 June 2016

Skill Capital of the World ?



While announcing major reforms in, "  Apprenticeship Training Scheme " ,
Shri Narendra Modi said :

" Let's make India the Skill Capital of the World "

He went on to add :
" By next decade, India will have 50 million surplus manpower for export "


But , we all know that :

#   NSDC ( National Skills Development Corporation ) has a target to impart 
     " Skills " to 300 million youth by 2022 ( approx 50 million / year )

#   As of now , only some 27 % of college graduates are " employable "

#   50 % of our current population (approx 550 million) are under age of 27



In light of the foregoing , the reforms ( in Apprentice Scheme ) announced are most welcome , especially in respect of the following :

#   Inclusion of " SERVICE " sector

#   Inclusion of Graduates / Post Graduates from Arts / Science / Commerce

#   Self Assessment by Companies

#   Freedom to Companies to introduce own NEW courses

#   Freedom to engage apprentices from ANY state

#   Doing away with trade-wise ratios



It could have been still better if :

#   Offset against CSR ,( of the expense incurred by Companies on
     Apprentice Scheme ) was NOT restricted to only those Companies
     which engaged apprentices in excess of mandatory  2.5 % of employee
     strength
 
 #   For 6 trades , training duration was NOT reduced from 3 to 2 years

#    Stipend payable was lower than specified 70% / 80 % / 90 % of
      Semi-Skilled minimum wages  ( of approx Rs 6000 per month )

#    Minimum Mandatory limit was raised from 2.5 % to 5 %

#    There was NO upper limit for engaging ( currently 10 % of employees )


But , all of these , will still be " tinkering "  !

Nothing bold enough to turn India into , " Skill capital of the World  "

None of the above-mentioned reforms will enable us to train / skill , 50 million youth , EVERY YEAR  !

Now consider the following :

#   If current diasporas of 21 million Indians working abroad , remit $ 70
     Billion annually , then how much can 50 million surplus manpower
     remit to their relatives in India , by 2026 ?

     Can current 21 million plus another 50 million ( a total of 71 million ) ,
     remit , $ 250 Billion , by 2026 ?  Let there be NO doubt  !

#   Are Government machineries / incentives , enough to train 50 million
     youth each year , even under this " Reformed Scheme " ?

#   If one training Institute can train ( say ) , 1,000 trainees each year ,
     we would need some 50,000 Training Institutes , each with an
     investment of Rs 100 Crores ( Land + Building + Plant and Machinery ) ,
     entailing , a total investment of Rs 50 lakh*crore !

#  Government has neither such funds , nor an administrative  machinery to
    set up 50,000 training institutes , even in next 5 years !


There is only one way


 This can be made to happen , as follows :

    *  Turn this entire exercise into a PROFIT MAKING proposition in the
        hands of PRIVATE SECTOR ( Individuals + Corporate + Start Ups )

    *  Enable BLACK MONEY to be invested in private sector SPVs called,
       " XYZ Manpower Skilling SPV ",
        with no questions asked as to the source of funds invested ( domestic
        or Foreign )

    *  Grant INDUSTRY status to such SPVs

    *  In order to attract PRIVATE Individuals / Corporate, to come forward
        and set up these 50,000 SPVs ( before March 2018 ), provide a 10 year
        TAX HOLIDAY ,  to " Manpower Skilling Industry "

        Much in the same way NITI Aayog has recommended for companies
        investing in Electronics manufacturing activities . And  as against
        expected creation of 20,000 jobs due to this proposed policy in
        Electronic Industry , my suggestion would create 50 LAKH jobs @ 100
        jobs / SPV !
       

        Also worth noting that :

        NITI Aayog is recommending this tax-holiday policy for only NEW units
        being set up , without any estimate  as to the amount exchange likely
        to be earned  through exports from these NEW units
                
       
        On the other hand , my suggestion has a definitive potential to bring in
        remittances worth $ 250 Billion by 2026 ! 
          
         
    #  Just like various IIMs ( and other reputed Management Training
        Colleges ) , permit these SPVs to charge to the Companies conducting
        Campus Interviews ,

        *   Fixed Participation Fees

        *   Variable Student Support Fees ( per student hired )


     #  SPVs will be allowed to devise their own courses / curriculum and
         conduct their own exams / award their own certificates / diplomas


     #   SPVs will be free to charge their own fees and compete for placement
          of their graduating students , in an atmosphere of open and free
         competition ( much as it works today for most  educational institutes )


    #   Government may continue to provide STIPEND SUBSIDY as proposed
         in the Reforms , but only to Indian MSMEs

        
My proposal has the potential to bring back those Rs 35 lakh*crore that Indians have siphoned abroad , between 2003-13


As far as I can see , there is no other way , India can either become the Skill Capital of the World or be in a position to export 50 million surplus Skilled persons


I envisage an alternate scenario under which Europe , in order to overcome its shrinking population and resultant " Skill Shortage ", starts , intensive " Skills Training " of those millions of unskilled migrants from Middle East and Africa , who are flooding the shores of Italy and Greece


That will put to rest , Shri Modiji's dream of exporting surplus skilled manpower  !

It is still not too late for some " Out of the Box / Bold " decisions !


A shining example of what a PROFIT MOTIVATED / PRIVATE sector can achieve is Elon Musk ( of TESLA motors ) , who , within a short span of 2 years , has landed a re-usable rocket on a floating platform in sea 4 times - something which NASA could not achieve in 50 years ! 



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08  June  2016


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Thursday, 2 June 2016

Surge Pricing and Other Stories


In " Economics 101 " , we learned :


*  There is a close - and reasonably predictable - relation between DEMAND / SUPPLY and PRICE , in an environment of free competition


*  Price goes up when Demand goes up but Supply fails to keep pace


*  If Demand shrinks but Supply does not slow down , Price goes down


Only problem for the policy makers is :


*  Increasing Supply , often takes weeks / months / years , even when Competitors are allowed free / easy entry

All that policy makers, can do is initiate some steps to increase competition


*  Consumers like Price to go down , so they want Supply to continue unabated , irrespective of the viability / survival of the Supplier  !


*  Pleasing , both the Consumers and the Suppliers ( of goods or services ) , is very difficult, through Rules / Regulations , because Rules / Regulations cannot be changed as fast as changes in Demand / Supply


So what happens , in near terms  ?


#   Uber / Ola , jack up their price when demand goes up and lower prices when demand goes down


     And , unlike old days , these price-changes happen automatically / dynamically / instantly , based on Mobile App algorithms , without anyone debating ( to be or not to be ? ) and making a conscious decision


Now , I believe , governments of Karnataka / Delhi , are trying to place a " Cap " on the maximum price that Uber / Ola can charge ( for a fixed distance )


In my opinion , this capping , should be a strictly temporary thing and it would be in the long-term interests of the taxi-riders , if these governments take pro-active steps to bring in many more " avatars " of Uber / Olas


On the other hand , various Airlines ( in India ) , have been resorting to such " Surge Pricing " for years ( - and , often with the blessings of the policy makers ! )


And , I suppose , the State Governments plead helplessness , since Air flights are inter-state !


#  Only 3/4 years ago , every time Government-controlled Oil Marketing Companies ( HP / BP / IOC ) raised petrol prices ( once in 6 months or so ) , there used to be huge demonstrations / rasta roko / bandhs etc , all over India ( no doubt , organized by the Opposition Parties )


On many such occasions , government was forced to withdraw the increases


But , what happens now ?


Oil Companies increase / decrease their prices , every fortnight !


And it gets reported in small prints in corners of newspapers  !


Not a single political party leader even mentions it in passing !


And that is also what OPEC itself does !



MORAL  OF  THE  STORY :


Consumers don't like sudden " Big Shocks " , even after long intervals


But they will readily absorb " Small Irritating Price Increases " , if administered , every week / month  !


Why is it that Policy Makers fail to grasp this fundamental human psychology ?


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 03  June  2016



www.hemenparekh.in / blogs   

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CORPORATE DIVERSIFICATION

Full note can be read at " QUO VADIS ", under section " Reports " of

www.hemenparelh.in > Reports


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Mr. S.R.Subramaniam                                 January 5, 1989


CORPORATE DIVERSIFICATION


20th Century saw two world-wars between super-powers. The aim of both was territorial expansion. 21st Century will witness similar war of global dimensions -but with difference


It will be

*  a war of expansion of economic -territory involving nations,    
    large and small
                        
*  fought by mega-corporations

*  employing world-wide network of space-age technologies/    
   alliances/resources/markets.

*  unrestrained by national boundaries

*  without an end  
    

It will be business-war in which the unprepared will be wiped-out and even those who have made definite survival-plans will find going tough.


am happy to enclose report which goes beyond survival. 

For many thousand L&T-ites, it will offer hope for growth in the 21st Century. 

I suggest that the Corporate Management sets aside one full day during the forthcoming Strategic-Plan Meetings, to debate this report and take necessary decisions.


With kind regards,
                                 
H. C. PAREKH 

CC : Mr. N.M.Desai

       Chairman - L&T

Wednesday, 1 June 2016

From BAD to MAD



BAD   =   Biometric Attendance Device

MAD   =   Mobile Attendance Device


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Most people think the greatest contribution of Bill Gates ( onetime CEO of Microsoft ) was " MS Operating System "

I think , it was his book " Business @ the Speed of Thought "

Current CEO of Microsoft is a PIO named Satya Nadela

What is his contribution ?

What he said during his talk in Delhi on 30 May , called ,

" Tech for Good , Ideas for India " :

 He cited the example of how NASA scientists were not able to see the Rover move on Mars but the holographic output of the Rover is right there in their office.

Nadella also met two young developers, one of them a 17-year-old who has figured out how to take data from NASA , conflate it with other information and see the spread of algae in Bay of Bengal. “Here’s a student who is taking information that is available, bringing it together—he wanted to have a real impact right here in terms of how we managed our climate,” he said.

Nadella wrapped up by summing Microsoft’s mission in India.

" It is about really celebrating the technologies that you all in India create. In fact, I want us to be the platform creators that foster the ingenuity of what is happening in India,” he said.


Here is my idea of a technology that we need to create for a better India :

Today Employee Attendance Systems in India work at three levels as follows :

#   Entirely Manual

     Attendance Register and Wage/Salary payment in cash or by Cheque

#   Partly Automated

     Punch cards or Bio-metric recording of attendance but manual calculation
     of wages / salaries and payment by cash or cheque

#   Fully Automated

     Bio-metric Attendance Devices ( BAD ) , integrated with a home-grown or
     bought-out Salary Payment Software , running on a local Server.

     Salary payments could be by cheques or thru Electronic Transfer to
     concerned employee's bank account


Once in a while , if a company has several establishments within a city , those local servers are connected to a Central Server , doing all processing

In a rare case ( although , I am not aware of any ) , it may be that all the local servers of all the establishments of a company , all over the country , are networked with its central computer in its head-quarter


Now imagine this :


#  All smart phones to evolve as Bio-metric Attendance Devices , with built-in
    Bio-metric Recorders , GPS , a mobile attendance App ( called MAD ? )

#  App to have 2 buttons ( Green = IN  /  Red = OUT )

#  Employee to touch IN upon reaching his work-station and touch OUT ,
    while leaving work place , at the end of work-shift . That's all  !

#  Being GPS enabled , buttons will get activated ONLY when the employee
    has reached the work place ( not while he is on his way ! )

#  All 100 million establishments in India ( factories / offices / shops / clinics
    NGOs / Govt Depts ) to ensure that the MAD app is installed on the smart
    phone of each employee , when he joins
   
#  All of these smart phones to be connected ( IoT ? ) , with the Servers of ,

    *  Labour Ministries ( Central and States )

    *  HRD Ministry ( Central )

    *  Skills Development Ministry / NSDC

    *  Finance Ministries ( Central + States )

    *  NITI Aayog

    *  Income Tax Department

    *  Any other server that you may want to


#   MAD app is integrated with a STANDARD / COMMON , software system
     for computing daily wages / monthly salaries of ALL the persons working
     in those 100 million establishments ( whether they are casual /
     contractual  / trainee / apprentice / probationer / permanent / retained


#   As each person joins in any of these establishments , data re  that
     person must be inputted by the Employer into the App , such as :
   
     *  Name / Contact Details / DOB / Aadhar Card No / Employee Number

         ( Each unique Employee Number will be auto-generated by the
         common Salary Payment Software , running on IT Dept Server )


     *   Employee's Jandhan Yojana Bank Account Number for salary EC


     *   Employer's Jandhan bank account / Unique Employer Number


     *   Payment Mode ( Hourly / Daily / Monthly Rated , wages / salaries )


     *   Leave provisions / PF rate / TDS rate / Allowances / Reimbursements


     *   Any other relevant data ( either about employee of for employer )



WHAT  ARE  THE  ADVANTAGES  ?


#   For employees , no need to file a separate annual Income Tax Return

#   Direct deposit of PF / TDS amounts into bank accounts of Govt Depts

#   Direct Benefit Transfer ( DBT ) to every Employer for Stipend Subsidy ,
     based on number of total trainees / apprentices employed

#   Total number of employees in India ( category / region / industry )

#   Employment Density ( Industry wise / Region wise / Skill wise etc )

#   Net Employment Growth Rate ( weekly - monthly / Industry-wise )

#   Co-relation with no of persons graduating at various levels

#   Data about those Unemployed ( " Graduating " less " Employed " )

#   Overtime Statistics ( Use / Abuse )

#   Work-hour Analysis ( Ave hours / week - month )

#   Wage / Salary Rates ( Rs per hour ) - Industry wise / Region wise

     ( of great interest to Foreign Investors looking to bring down
       manufacturing costs , by outsourcing to India / manufacturing in India )

#   Compliance with labour laws / tax laws / Apprentice Act etc

#   Job Market Forecasts through BIG DATA ANALYTIC ( region / industry )

#   Demographic  Profiles of employees  ( Rural to Urban migration )

#   Per Capita Income Growth for persons using MAD app  ( MOM / YOY )

#   Changing composition between Blue Collar and White Collar employees


Then there could be many other benefits not envisaged now

Here is an opportunity for :

 *  Manufacturers of Smart Phones

     To shrink stationary / bulky / common , bio-metric devices to mobile /
     small / personalized / hand-held devices

    { Remember ?  

If you don't make yourself obsolete , someone else will  }


*  Tech Start Ups

     To come up with the Mobile App ( MAD ) / Technology Platform


*  NDA Government

    To implement what Shri Narendra Modiji said on 15 July 2015 :

   "  If China is like a manufacturing factory of the World , India should
    become the human resource capital of the World .

   That should be our target and we should lay emphasis on that . 

   We should have a futuristic vision and prepare plans for the next ten years "

  

   MAD  could well be an important element  of  that  " JAM PLAN "  !

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02  June  2016


www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

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