A Jigsaw Puzzle or
A House of Cards
?
May be Shri Piyush Goyalji / Shri R K
Singhji , has figured it out , whether the current power situation is a jigsaw
puzzle or a house of cards
As far as I can make out , following are the pieces of
this Power Puzzle :
·
Surplus of 55 million tons of
coal accumulated at pit heads
·
CBI court trying cases of corruption in cases of past
allocation
·
Sentencing of ex coal secretary Gupta ( perceived as honest
)
·
Current auction method of
coal block allocation
·
Supreme Court verdict cancelling past ( unfair ) allocation
of coal blocks
·
Captive coal mines vs Commercial Coal Mining ( even though
no takers ? )
·
Target to double Coal production by 2022
·
Power plants designed to run on only Imported coal,
becoming unviable
·
21000 Mw worth of Coal based
power plants closing down in May 2017
·
34 coal based power
plants under different stages of construction , facing bleak future ( = 40 GW )
·
Solar Power being offered at Rs 2.41 / kwh against coal-based power at Rs 3.19 / kwh ( ave of
NTPC power )
·
Rs 9 lakh*crore worth of bank loans (
to new / under construction coal based power plants ) about to turn NPA
·
Per capita electric power consumption in India at a measly 1075 Kwh as against, 53,832 kwh in Iceland and
9411 in Saudi Arabia
·
“ Access to Electricity “ target by Dec 2018….. 45 million households
·
Actual achieved by now………………………………….. 0.7 million households
·
Power Capacity growth in past 3 years………… 8.6% annually
·
Power Demand growth in past 3 years…………… 4.4% each year
================================
·
NTPC
# current installed capacity of 51,708 MW
# capital expenditure for current year at Rs 28,000 Cr
# another 20,000 MW of projects under construction
# just floated a
tender to buy-out operational coal-based plants
# ave cost of
NTPC power is Rs 3.19 /
kwh
=============================
·
SOLAR POWER SCENARIO
( AS OF SEPT
2017 )
# ground-mounted solar has reached only 13.9
GW
# roof-top
capacity has reached only 790 MW
# taking
total Solar installed capacity to 14.7 GW
# This means
that , during the next 60 months (
Nov 2017 – Nov 2022 ) , we need
to install ( 100 GW – 14.7 GW ), 85.3 GW of Solar (
ground + roof )
# That is nearly 1.5 GW / month (
month after month after month , for next 60
months )
Now, 1 GW installed capacity of Solar costs approx. 1 Bill dollar ( = Rs 6500 Cr )
That means , we must find Rs 10,000 Cr / Month , for 1.5 GW
Every month for the next 60 months !
# Solar Power Bids, planned as
follows ( DNA / 27 Nov ) :
Ø 3.6 GW already bid
Ø 3.0 GW in Dec 2017
Ø 3.0 GW in Jan 2018
Ø 5.0 GW in Feb 2018
Ø 6.0 GW in March 2018
Ø 30.0 GW in 2018-19
Ø 30.0 GW in 2019-20
Ø Ministry of New and Renewable Energy – MNRE - is examining a proposal
submitted by the Power Grid Corporation of India , to generate Solar and Wind power in the deserts of Rajasthan / Kutchh / Lahul and Spiti / Ladakh
Ø These deserts have , between them , the potential to generate 315.7 GW of Solar plus Wind power, compared
with our present installed capacity of 331 GW
·
But , how to “ Store “ all that huge
amount of Solar generated electricity and use it round the clock when Sun is
not shining ?
This ( storage of solar generated power ) was not possible till
yesterday
But it just became possible !
Only yesterday , Elon Musk ( TESLA ) completed installation of a 100 MW / 129 MWh , Lithium-ion Battery Storage facility in
Australia , for a cost of $ 50 million
All within 100 days – ensuring no more “ black outs “ in South Australia
!
To store
that 316 GW (
316,000 MW ) of solar power generated in our deserts , we
will need 3160 Storage Batteries of the size ( 100 MW ) installed in
Australia
That would cost , $
158 Billion ( Rs 11.15 lakh*crore )
In all , we need to raise :
Ø For 316 GW solar power projects in our deserts…………$ 316 Billion
Ø For 3160 Mega Storage Batteries………………………………..$
158 Billion
A Total of ……………………………………………………………………………
$ 474 Billion
Where /
how can we raise such funds ?
A small country like Indonesia managed to raise nearly $ 330 Billion of stashed
away Black Money ( out of an estimated $ 851 Billion ) within 6 months under a tax amnesty scheme (
just pay 2 % tax / no penalty ! ) – all for
investing in infrastructure
To know
how we can do better, look up :
Sun: Our Soul ( 07 Jan
2017 )
IndonesiaShows the Way ( 23 Dec
2016 )
Can you imagine :
·
what it could do to our economy
if powerwas available for Rs 1 / Kwh ?
·
how many premature deaths ( due to
air pollution ) can be avoided if we shut down ALL coal-based power plants ? (
Ans : 600,000 each year )
·
6 million Electric vehicles that the Government wants to put on our
roads by 2020 , were re-charging their Li-ion batteries , using GREEN solar power ?
=======================================================
27
Nov 2017
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs