Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Tuesday 3 May 2016

What would they do ?



For the year 2012-13, Personal Income Tax paid by individuals is as follows :

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(  Number of Tax payers  ) (  Total tax amount paid - Rs Crore )
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(   3                    )........ (        437     ).... Super Rich

(  5430               )........  (     8,907     ).... Rich

(  14  Lakh          )........  (  253,656    ).... Middle  Class

(  111  Lakh        )........   (   23,000    ).... Neo Middle ( Minimum Slab )

(  162  Lakh        ).........   (   NIL        )....  Poor  ( Tax Exempt )

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(   Total = 287  Lakh ).........(   2.86 lakh*Crore  )  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now , I have repeatedly advocated total abolition of Personal Income Tax

So , it would be natural to ask :

If these people did not have to pay personal income tax , then what would they do with this ( Rs 2.86 lakh*crore ) tax amount saved ?


MY   GUESS  :


#    3 Super Rich individuals

They might buy some more gold / ornaments / flats or take more holidays abroad

Of course , the expenditure for the purchase of flats and ornaments will help the economy



#    5430  Rich  persons

Some of them would also indulge in buying gold / flats

Many would buy luxury cars / luxury goods ( Consumer Durables , like domestic appliances or Consumables like expensive clothes / ornaments / purses etc )

All of this expenditure will , no doubt , help the economy grow and create more jobs



#     14  lakh Middle Class persons

From the above data , it is obvious that it is this Middle Class persons ( 14 lakhs ) , who bear the brunt of the Personal Tax collection !

And , as Rajiv Gandhi once said , for every rupee of tax that they pay , only 15 paise worth of " Civic Services " ( infrastructure / drinking water / health-care  etc ), returns to them !

And , on top of everything , they have no " Social Security " of any kind !

So , I believe that they would invest the saved tax money in bank fixed deposits / mutual funds / life insurance / Public Provident Fund etc , to ensure a small - but steady - source of income after retirement

Now , if Rs 2 lakh*crore of this tax saving were to become " Bank Deposits ", it would enable these persons to raise their " Credit Rating / Loan Repayment Capacity " and take out bigger loans for homes / cars etc

This would give a huge boost to our economy !

That would also raise our Domestic Saving Rate , once again , above 30 %

That would also relieve some pressure on the Government to introduce a forced " Pension Regime "

And , if this group spends some more money in sending their girl-child to better schools , they would be investing in a better future of their children - a highly desirable type of expenditure  !

And do not discount the long term social impact of investing for retirement

In most middle class Indian families , parents today depend upon their SONS , to look after them in their old age . Male child is THE only retirement assurance for these people

When tax savings make it possible for them to become independent of their male child , the desire to have a male child ( at the cost of aborting a female child ) , will go down !



#   111 lakh , Neo - Middle Class persons

They have just entered the minimum tax slab ( 10 % ? )

Without doubt , they would spend the saved tax money in buying items of daily NECESSITY - food being the foremost  ! May be some cheap clothes !

By being able to meet the Cost of Living  a little better , these persons would be able to live a dignified life - even if living in slum-like conditions !

Their tax-saving would just not be enough for them to book a 250 sq ft flat !



And since there would be no Personal Income Tax to be paid, no one would want to hide any income ! Every rupee of income would get accounted for in official banking channels !
 

Other than small daily purchases , large CASH payments will disappear !
Official payments ( through electronic transfer / credit cards / mobile wallets etc ) will dramatically go up  !


Banks will get huge amounts of deposits and be in a position to engage in micro - lending !


P2P lending platforms will take off like a rocket  ! Especially those " RICH " and the " SUPER RICH " will now start lending to Start Ups and Self Employed Entrepreneurs , through this P2P web sites


I request Shri Arun Jaitleyji to seriously consider my suggestion in the forthcoming Central Budget


I am confident that not a single Political Party will oppose this , either in Lok Sabha or in Rajya Sabha


It will be a political " Harakiri " for anyone to oppose !


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www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

04  May  2016

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Monday 2 May 2016

Tomorrow's Headlines Today ?



Take a look at the following news headlines :

#  64 million jobs created in China
    (  Business Line / 29 Dec 2015 )


#  Employers may get some sops for creating extra jobs
    (  Economic Times / 05 Feb 2016 )


#  23 % Indians aged 20-24 seeking jobs
    (  Times of India / 23 Dec 2015 )


#   27mill SSC-pass non-grads seek employment
    (  Times of India / 23 Dec 2015 )


#   Jobs grew 4.4 % / wages 14 % in 2013-14
    (  Business Line / 11 Feb 2016 )


#   Labour Ministry to restructure job survey , include service
     sector data ( Mint / 10 Feb 2016 )


#   India's Job Crisis : Here's a plan for creating 50 million quality
     jobs in the next decade : Romesh Wadhwani
     ( Times of India / 09 Feb 2016 )


#   With focus on Mfg, Labour Min Pitches for Jobs Survey Recast
    (  Economic Times / 21 April 2016 )


#   The Jobs Discourse : Ajit Ranade
    (  Mint / 20 April 2016 )


#   Job growth down to 7 year low in 2015 : Labour Bureau
   (  Business Line / 16 April 2016 )


#   No country for freshers
   (  Economic Times / 28 March 2016 )


Now , can you predict what will be the newspaper headlines , when it comes to the matter of " JOBS " , 2 / 3 / 5 years from now ?


There are two methods , as follows :


*   Reproduce the above headlines by simply changing the year
( in the " date " ) to 2018 / 2019 / 2021

You will not be too far off !


*    But if you are a " Data Scientist " , you may want to borrow from me a database of 2+  million job advertisements compiled from leading job portals over the past 8 years ( and covering job advertisements released by 50,000 + employers ) , and subject this data-set to BIG DATA analytics , to predict :

#   WHO   ( which company ) , will advertise

#   WHAT ( vacancy name ) , and

#   WHEN  ( almost , to a day ), for posting in

#   WHICH ( city ) , and needing

#   WHAT  ( Skills / Edu Qualifications ) , offering

#   HOW MUCH ( salary )


You will be doing a great service to not only the Jobseekers but also to Policy Makers / Educationists / Economists / NITI Aayog / HR managers / Trade Associations / Industrialists etc


If , based on search-terms used by billions of surfers every day ,  Google can accurately predict an outbreak of flue in any part of the world , then , surely Indian software geeks can predict jobs !

I am surprised why Naukri / MonsterIndia / TimesJobs etc are not publishing such job related analytics on their web sites in a dynamically changing fashion , given their enormous databases 

They , have even captured , BILLIONS of search queries by :

*  Jobseekers searching jobs , and

*  Employers searching resumes

These portals are , literally , in possession of ( what John Battelle - author of book " Google " may have said ) , " Database of Intentions "  !

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www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

03  May  2016




Sunday 1 May 2016

Transparency : The Biggest Reform


Since assuming power 2 years ago , NDA government has carried out many reforms , having deep impact on social and economic matters ( - regrettably , hardly any reform to our parliamentary political system or in our electoral system )


I believe , THE reform that brings about other reforms , is TRANSPARENCY in the working of the government , mostly through ONLINE INTERACTION between the government departments and the citizens / businesses


Take a look at the following :

*    Auction of Spectrum

*    Auction of Coal Blocks / Oil - Gas Blocks

*    Auction of UMPP power projects / Solar Power Projects

*    Bidding / tendering for Highway Projects

*    Bidding for Defense Projects

*    Grant of Building Construction Projects

*    Grant of Environment Clearances

*    Registration of Companies / Start Ups

*    Launch of Mobile Apps for lodging complaints for govt services

*    Jan Dhan Yojana bank accounts with zero deposits

*    Direct Transfer of Benefits to replace subsidies to middlemen

*    Availing of bank loans under MUDRA / STAND UP Schemes

*    Online applying for Government jobs through a web portal

*    Enforcement of Net Neutrality through public consultation

*    Involving Private Sector in big way in " Skilling of India " project

*    FDI through automatic route in many sectors

*    Encouragement of E Commerce sector



Not being Press Bureau or Public Relations Department of the Central Government , I am bound to have left out a few other examples of such Transparency


Nor do I have a user's perspective ( either as an ordinary citizen or as a businessman who has to deal with any government department ), to know how these Policy Initiatives have got actually translated on the ground


But I do know that NDA government has been " less than a success " ( I am being as polite as I can ! ), when it comes to :


*   Stopping future generation of BLACK MONEY and CORRUPTION

    {  It is simply futile to waste time / energy on trying to bring back the
        $ 501 billion siphoned out of country in last 10 years }

    One easy / administrative solution ( not needing passing of any law ), is
    to embed Rs 500 / 1000 plastic currency notes with RFID sensors

    And , if this simple step is coupled with TOTAL ABOLITION of Personal
    Income Tax , the resultant TRANSPARENCY will sustain our economic
    growth ( GDP ) , above 10 % , leading to elimination of Poverty in 10
    years


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www.hemenparekh.in  /  blogs

02  May   2016

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Saturday 30 April 2016

The Bounty of Big Data



To compile Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), USA Bureau of Labor Statistics employs hundreds of staff to call, fax, and visit stores and offices in 90 cities across the nation and report back about  80,000 prices on everything from tomatoes to taxi fares


But by the time the numbers come out, they're already a few weeks old and useless


In response , two economists at the MIT, Alberto Cavallo and Robert Rigobon , came up with a big-data alternative


Using software to crawl the Web, they collected half a million prices of products sold in the U.S. every single day


The project was able to detect a deflationary swing in prices immediately after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in September 2008


Enter commercial venture : Price-Stats :


It compiles millions of products sold by hundreds of retailers in more than 70 countries everyday..... indicating trends in inflation


{Source : Big Data : authors / Viktor Mayer-Schonberger / Kenneth Cukier }



In India , we too , keep compiling CPI in the same old way


Anybody's guess when our Central Government Authority responsible for compiling CPI , will adopt BIG DATA ANALYTICS , to give us up-to-the-day figures


Now imagine if Government were to launch Mobile App

 3D - Digital Delivery of Drugs ( outline below ) ,

 and make its use MANDATORY by every ,

*  Citizen................ ( Patient )

*  Doctor................ ( Prescriber )

*  Pharma Store.......( Vendor )


Then imagine applying BIG DATA ANALYTICS to every single purchase of every strip / bottle / vial  of medicine ( totaling to may be  a 100 million , every day )


This , fairly straight-forward use of an unusually simple Mobile App , is capable of delivering , unprecedented level of " Customized Healthcare " to millions of our citizens


I hope Dr Harsh Vardhan takes note  !


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www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

01  May  2016

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3 D - Digital Delivery of Drugs  ?

( let us call it , " Dispenser " )


On 14th Oct , 8 lakh pharmacy stores will go on strike to persuade Government to prohibit sale of " Prescription Drugs " by e-Pharmacies such as 1mg.com / Zigy.com , not to  speak of e-Com sites like Amazon / SnapDeal / Flipkart etc

Reason advanced :

*  Online sale puts consumers at risk

Real reason ?

*  Loss of jobs of 4 million persons employed by 800,000 pharmacy stores

*  Loss of business worth Rs 80.000 Crores


Current legal provision :

*  Drugs and Cosmetics Act,1940 does not prohibit online sale of medicines


Govt response :

*  Set up a Committee to draft new provisions in Law to regulate online sale

My take :

*  One day , everything will be sold online from web sites 10,000 Km away !

*  There is no way march of EVERYTHING ONLINE can be stopped or slowed


My Suggestions :

*  Govt to upload a Mobile App ( DISPENSER ? ) on Health Ministry web site

*  All doctors must download it , after proper registration / authentication

*  App will get embedded with full details of that doctor who uses it

*  Doctors to enter Patient Data in App  / then enter prescribed Drug Details

*  Doctor will SMS app data entered , to concerned patient's mobile

*  Patient will SMS entered app data to mobile of Chemist of his choice

*  Chemist will deliver the medicine to the patient with Bill Details in App

*  Every action / transaction on App , will get automatically emailed to web
    Servers of

       #  Health Ministry

       #  All India Medical Association

       #   All India Organization of Chemists and Druggists ( AIOCD )

       #   Drug Controller General of India


Advantages :


*   Jobs / business of Chemists / Druggists saved

*   Great convenience for patients / no need to visit Drug Store

*   No chance of Chemist " misinterpreting " doctor's handwriting !

*   Full History of

     #  Each Patient ( great benefit to Prescribing doctors )

     #  Each Drug    ( great benefit to Pharma Companies  )

     #  Each Chemist Shop  ( great benefit to Govt / AIOCD / Tax Dept )

     #  Each Doctor  ( great interest to All India Medical Association )


Of course , I have no answer for those who will oppose my suggestion by saying :

" What if either the Patient or the Doctor or the Chemist , does not have a Smart phone  ? "


My only answer :

For the benefit of millions , let us harness the Online Delivery technology

That is the only way  DIGITAL INDIA  can benefit the entire society

Solutions to all the problems of the World are known

Only Unknown are those dedicated persons determined to implement  !

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hemen   parekh

12  Oct  2015

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Make    Yourself    Heard

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It is time for YOU to speak up - and demand that YOU are heard

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Friday 29 April 2016

P2P Lending Regulations



Reserve Bank Of India ( RBI ) just released a " Consultation Paper " on P2P lending . Suggestions have to be submitted by 31 May


This paper suggests some guidelines for regulation of this brand new industry , which boasts of some 30 online lending platforms , 20 of which , got launched in 2015


Total lending on these platform in last 2 years, approximates Rs 27 Crores


I have no idea as to the number of lenders and number of borrowers


As against this , the cumulative total loans taken by some 630,000 borrowers from some 900,000 lenders in China , add up to Rs 11 Lakh*Crore from 2600 , P2P platforms !


I had only a cursory glance at the RBI guidelines but could not find answers to following questions :


*  Can " Companies " register on P2P platforms as either Lenders or as Borrowers ?

I suppose , RBI's  answer would be " NO " - even if it is a Peer-to-Peer transaction between two entities ( bypassing the regular middlemen ie: Banks )

Would that proscribe tiny " Start Up Companies " to join P2P platforms ?

Somehow , that does not sound right  !



*  Can American / European / Japanese citizens become lenders on Indian P2P platforms and lend money to Indian borrowers ?


Once again , I am afraid , RBI will say , " Sorry , No ! "


Of course , it is safe to say, " No " since RBI does not want P2P phenomenon to " disrupt the existing banking channels "


Reason ?


Countries of the world making up almost 56 % of World GDP , have 0 % - 1 % interest rates ! That covers America / Europe / Japan


In some cases , there are NEGATIVE interest rates , meaning :


Instead of earning an interest when you put your money in Fixed Deposit in those Foreign banks , in these countries , banks will charge you a small fee to " safe-keep " your money !


And banks will pay YOU some small amount for taking out loans  !


Given this scenario , it is to be expected that rich citizens of these foreign countries would just LOVE to become lenders ( to Indian borrowers ) and earn , even as low as  5 % interest , on Indian P2P platforms  !


And Indian borrowers would LOVE to take loans only from such FOREIGN lenders who have very LOW expectations by way of interest !


Remember that today , an Indian borrower would pay around 15 % by way of interest to an Indian Bank for short term loans


As against this , the " Average interest rates " on P2P platforms hover around 8.6 % globally


So allowing Foreign individual citizens to register as lenders on Indian P2P platforms , would result in a win-win situation for both !


Who knows , the amount of foreign funds arriving into India through this route ( call it FDII - Foreign Direct Investments to Individuals ) , could even exceed FDI  !


Remember that , in the past 15 months , total loans disbursed by Indian banks under MUDRA yojana  , add up to mere Rs 1.5 lakh*crore to some 5.75 crore " Self Employed " who provide jobs to 12 cr persons !


FDII (through P2P platforms) can bring in 10 times  that amount in 1 year !


And then , do our banks deserve any sympathy , with their Rs 7 lakh*crore of NPA , which they want the tax-paying Indians to make good through re-capitalization ?


Is it not about time when , if the Indian banks , could not / would not make themselves obsolete , then someone else did ?


Hiding their heads in the sand is not going to save them from the coming storm  !


PS :

#  Globally , loan default rate for P2P platforms is under 1 %

#  My suggestion ( to enable FDII ) has the potential to bring back those
    $ 501 billion that Indians have secretly stashed abroad ! No rocket
    science here !

#  FDII will raise that number of Self Employed , enormously

#  FDII will turn India into a " Low Cost Economy " , thereby boosting

    exports and taking GDP beyond 10 %


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www.hemenparekh.in  /  blogs

30  April  2016

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Make    Yourself    Heard

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It is time for YOU to speak up - and demand that YOU are heard

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