Does AAP have a Chance ?

Does AAP have a chance to win substantial number of seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections  ?

Not , if we go by a Times of India article by Milan Vaishnav ( 02 Feb 2014 )

Following is my interpretation of the article :

>   CRIME  PAYS

     What is the probability of winning election ?

     #  Only 7 % chance of winning if candidate has NO criminal case pending

    #  22 % chance of

 winning if candidate has at least one case pending  !

      PROOF  ?

     Lok Sabha

    *  162 MPs have pending Criminal cases , of which , 76 face " Serious "  

        charges

     State Assemblies

    *  31 % of MLAs have pending Criminal cases , and 15 % face " Serious "

       charges

   Moral of the History  ?

     Give tickets to only those candidates who have one - or more - criminal

     cases pending  !

>   MONEY  WORKS

     What is the probability of winning election  ?

    #  Only 1 % chance of winning if candidate belongs to the poorest 20 %

         of the MPs

    #  A whopping 25 % chance of winning if candidate belongs to the richest

        20 % of the MPs  !

    Moral of the History  ?

    Give tickets to only those candidates who have declared assets of Rs 200

    crore or more

>  CRIME  VS  MONEY

    #  Only 6 % of the POOR ( bottom 20 % ) candidates face Criminal

        charges

    #  Nearly 20 % of the RICH ( top 20 % ) candidates face Criminal

         charges

    Moral of the History  ?

    To ensure 100 % chance of winning, give preference to those candidates ,

    who are both , RICH  and  CRIMINAL   !

   I just don't understand why those AAP aspirants are fighting with Arvind ,

   for getting tickets  ! 

In face of such irrefutable / overwhelming evidence ,

   what can the poor fellow do  ?

   How about asking each aspiring candidate to fill in their personal data  

   in the following formula  ?

            ( CC+NSC ) * FBA/BLD + CA/PRA

P = ------------------------------------------

             (  NPA + NRE ) - PFU

Where ,

P  =  Probability of winning the election

CC =  Number of Criminal cases pending

CA =   Current Assets ( Rs Crores )

PRA =  Rise in Assets in last 3 years (  %  )

NRE =  Number of close relatives

NPA =  Number of times changed political affiliation in past 5 years

NSC =  Number of Scams in which listed

FBA =  Number of Foreign Bank accounts ( not only Swiss banks )

BLD = Number of PSU Bank loan defaults ( only those above Rs 5 Crores )

PFU =  Party Funds used for Campaign

Why leave candidate selection to human judgment  /  bias  ?

It is high time to introduce some transparency in candidate selection process 

   *   hemen  parekh  (  10 Feb 2014 / Mumbai  )

    

State of the Republic

Sure , we are all worried about the cancer of corruption spreading thru the body of our Republic

Almost all political parties have made , " Elimination of Corruption " as their main election plank

People of India are mad - and very angry - with the corrupt politicians , bureaucrats , businessmen  etc

Corrupt politicians etc are " taking away " our hard-earned money

But they cannot take these money with them when they leave this world  !

Nor can those who inherit these ill-gotten monies  !

Someone has to finally " spend " these monies , in this World itself , generating some employment , somewhere , sooner or later , to produce goods or services

But what happens in cases where some persons " do not give away " what they are supposed to give away  ? - as opposed to " taking away " what they are not supposed to ?

For example :

Teachers are supposed to " give away " knowledge to students

If they fail to do so , what kind of corruption , would that be ?

  

Knowledge - deprived children suffer for their entire lives

That might cause their children and grand-children to suffer, as well

After reading the following statistics ( DNA / 08 March 2014 ) , we should feel " frightened " ( - not just " worried " ) , with the army of school teachers , who are " depriving " our children of knowledge  -  a corruption of worse kind  !

>  MSCE ( Maharashtra State Council of Examination ) conducted TET ( Teachers Eligibility Test ) in Dec 2013

>  TET is mandatory for aspiring teachers for schools in Maharashtra

>  Just after passing their own 12th standard exams , some 600,000 candidates appeared for TET

>  Only 5 %  to 6 % passed the test  !

If that was not " bad enough " consider the following :

>  MSCE exam papers contained  37 questions which were " Erroneous "  !

>  MSCE  " Answer-Key " contained  18  " Wrong "  answers  !

I would not be surprised if we come across similar sad " State of Education " in other States , if they were to conduct TET

Is " Reforming Education System " listed in the Election Manifesto of any political party  ?

I doubt

May be the people of India are not mad-enough , angry-enough with the sad " State of Our Education System "  !

*  hemen  parekh  (  09  March  2014  /  Mumbai  )   

Arvind's Unfair Questions ?

Since he could not ask Narendra Modi these questions in person , I believe Arvind has sent these to NaMo by courier

I just overheard NaMo dictating a reply to his secretary , which went somewhat like this  :

Q 1... When will you raise KG Basin gas price to $ 16  ?

A  1... Not immediately

Q  2... You are buying solar energy at high prices

A  2.... Sunlight is expensive in Gujarat

Q  3.... How do you claim Agri growth rate is 11 %  ?

A  3.... Gujaratis maintain duplicate books of account , where 1+1=11

Q  4.... Will you shut down all small industries in the country and handover

           to select business houses ?

A  4.... Even Ambani / Adani empires are a mere  1 %  in size of big World

           Corporations . Who says they are big  ?

Q  5.... How do you claim there is no corruption in Gujarat ?  People are

           talking otherwise  !

A  5...  Kuchh  to  log   kahenge   /  Logo  ka  kaam  hain  kahena   !

Q  6.... Couldn't you find 2 honest persons for your ministry among 6 crore

           Gujaratis  ?

A   6...  Yes , we found Mahatma Gandhi and Sardar Patel

            But they are unwilling to join  !

Q   7...  Comment on your relationship with Mukesh Ambani

A   7....  In politics , there are neither permanent friends nor permanent

             enemies. Only permanent interests

Q   8...  How do you claim there is no unemployment in Gujarat  ?

A   8...  Even an " Employed " Gujarati is always doing some personal " part

            time " business on the sideline . And all , so-called " Unemployed "

            Gujaratis are " self-employed  " !  Ha  !  Ha  !

Q  9...  Can an educated , self-respecting person survive on Rs 5,300  ?

A   9...  Of course , he can

            Aren't you surviving without ANY salary for past 3 / 4 years  ?

            People say , despite being " Self respecting " , you are " thriving "  !

Q  10...  With such an education system , how can country progress  ?

A   10... All Gujaratis are " self educated " at home . Why go to school  ?

             Remember , what eminent philosopher / mathematician Alfred

             Whitehead , wrote in his seminal book , " Aims of Education " ?

             "  Only education worth its name is Self - Education  "

Q  11...  Under such circumstances , why are you making claims of providing

             good health services in Gujarat  ?

A  11.... If we were not , why would doctors from  around the World , call

             our Anand , the " Surrogate Capital of the World "  ?

            Our medical services are so good that Medical Tourism is booming !

Q  12...  In the last few years , 800 farmers have committed suicide in

             Gujarat and you have stopped all subsidies to farmers

A  12...  Suicide - rate amongst Gujarati Farmers is no worse than these

             rates amongst Gujarati Dowery-Brides , Gujarati Jobless , Gujarati

            Labour , Gujarati Minorities etc , which are , in turn , on par with

            similar rates in other states .

Q  13...  When you are not even giving power connections to farmers , then

            why are you making hollow claims on providing electricity  ?

A   13...  So what is the big deal  ?

              Haven't we given to all of them " Internet " connections to watch

              my holographic 3-D projections online  ? Don't make a mountain

             out of a mole-hill  !

Q  14...   You have snatched away farmers' lands and given to industrialists

              at cheap rates

A   14...  Bullshit ! Farmers who sold their lands to TATA-NANO in Sanand ,

              are all driving around in MERCs and AUDIs  !

Q  15....  No water for Kutch . Why this discrimination  ?

A  15...   If there is plenty of water in Kutch , Pak Terrorists will infiltrate it

              everyday  ! Surely you know that across the Kutch border in Sind -

              Pakistan , there is no water . Humm ! A business opportunity  !

Q   16...   Land of Sikhs in Gujarat . Why not take back your court case ?

A   16....  How can I get a " clean cheat " unless and until , Supreme Court

               appoints a SIT  ?

TV  ANCHORS  ,

Fill free to air this " Scoop of the Week " in your " Big Debate " etc

I am sure Jai Narayan Vyas and Gopal Rai would happy to answer

And , in person , too  !

*  hemen  parekh  (  08 March 2014 / Mumbai )

Act " Non - Violent "

All political parties preach " Non Violence "

But , time and again , end up acting violent  !

Mental violence of gallis and abusive language for their opponents

Sometimes even physical

People of Delhi voted for AAP because AAP looked different

It promised to follow the path of Mahatma Gandhi and refrain from abusive language

But two days back , AAP workers turned to violence in front of BJP office

It is unimportant to establish who threw the first stone

If they really believed in non violence , why could not AAP workers tie a piece of cloth around their mouths , walk down quietly to BJP's office - then sit down on the opposite footpath ?  And welcome BJP's stones and lathis  ?

Even sing ,

" Subko Sanmati de Bhagwaan "  !  BJP ko Sanmati de Bhagwan   !

That would have won them the hearts of 814 million voters in April  !

That is what Bapu would have done - as he did in Dandi March

Even though the British Rulers considered Bapu as the Enemy # 1 of the Empire , he never considered them as his enemies  !

That is why , even after he publicly burned heaps of clothes made in the mills of Birmingham and asked Indians to boycott all clothes imported from Britain , he was warmly welcomed by the families of those very British workers who got thrown out of jobs due to Bapu's boycott  !

Bapu believed in the " purity of the means "

For him , the " Means are as important as the Ends "

Unless AAP workers heed what Arvind is saying - and practice it too - , they will lose all sympathy from the general public , who will feel " deceived and cheated "  !

That will be the end of the last ray of hope - the AAP

ASHUTOSH  /  SHAZIA ILMI ,

History will not judge you by your oratory

Only by your Non-Violence

Non Violence of Thought

Of Speech

Of Action

*  hemen  parekh  ( 07 March 2014 / Mumbai )

  

An Indian Summer ?

We have heard about the " Arab Spring " , under which , over the past 3 years,

>  Libyans overthrew Muammar Gaddafi

>  People of Iraq ousted Saddam Hussein

>  Tunisians threw out Ben Ali

>  Yemenese exiled Ali Abdullah Saleh

No doubt , with overt - and covert - help from the Western Powers

But the most important factor was that , in all of these cases , entire population was united in fighting a single , common enemy - their Dictator

Now turn to ,

>  Syria

    where a number of rebel factions are fighting each other for last 2 years , even as they struggle to get rid of dictator Assad ( - who is having fun , since the Western World cannot make up its mind , which rebel faction it ought to support  !  )

>  Egypt

    where pro-Mubarak and anti-Mubarak ( or Muslim Brotherhood and its opponents ) are fighting each other , while their military Chief Sisi announces his candidature for President's position !

A Dictator disguised as a Democrat  ?  You bet  !

Obviously , Egyptian military rulers are having the last laugh  !

Neither in Syria , nor in Egypt , Arab Spring is succeeding , due to the infighting of those opposed to Assad and Mubarak

That reminded me of the ( in ) fighting that broke out last evening between BJP supporters and Aam Aadmi Party workers in Delhi , Lucknow , Allahabad and Bhopal

Have they forgotten , WHO is the real ENEMY of the People of India  ?

Fortunately , India being a democracy ruled by corrupt politicians of our own choosing ( in 2009 ) , no foreign power is expected to intervene

But the Congress leaders  must be laughing with unabashed joy  !

*   hemen   parekh  (  06  March  2014  /  Mumbai  )  

Why Businessmen Bribe Bureaucrats ?

At a recent CII seminar , Arvind Kejriwal said ,

"  Not all businessmen are corrupt. Quite a few are honest "

Having spent many years in Income Tax department he ought to know that even when a businessman has maintained honest / truthful books of accounts and not indulged in any mal-practice , he is still required to bribe the concerned income tax officer , to get his tax return approved

A Chartered Accountant ( who specializes in filing tax returns for companies ) , once told me :

" I have forgotten my accounting principles . I have been reduced to being a broker between the income tax officers and my client companies

If these tax officers get their ' percentage ' , they could not care less as to how many sets of duplicate account books you maintain  !

Of course , being thoroughly ' professional ' , they do offer a discount to honest businessmen !  "

That bags the question :

" Why do businessmen bribe bureaucrats  ?  "

My take :

>  Dishonest businessmen bribe bureaucrats ,

    #  to obtain some unfair advantage

    #  to keep out competition

    #  to jump the queue

    #  to get permissions / licenses / tariff etc for which they are not eligible

    #  to get orders for which they are not qualified ...............etc

>  Honest businessmen are forced to bribe the bureaucrats , who hold up /

    deny permissions / services etc that are perfectly / legally due to them

     If they won't , they must pay a heavy price  !

Example  :

Some 43 years ago , my company decided to shift a factory from Sion to Madh ( locations , just 20 Km apart in Mumbai )

As the manager of the plant , I applied to all the concerned departments , indicating the shifting date , some 3 months in advance

I also vigorously followed up for all required permissions

Every department granted permission , except the Power / Energy Dept

They wouldn't issue the letter until I signed an undertaking , stating that , in all of our future recruitment , 80 % of the recruits will be " local "

Even though , my company had always followed this practice at the workmen level , it was not possible to follow it at the Supervisory - and above - level , since we ,

> conducted campus interviews all over India to get the best engineers

> advertized our supervisory vacancies , in all national newspapers

> transferred engineers ( job rotation ) across our country-wide factories

Apart from that , there was also a raging debate in the media re this unjust demand , which legal experts had held , " Un-Constitutional "

My management told me not to sign the undertaking

Result  ?

For the next 3 months , my 300 workmen sat idle in the factory  !

We lost production / sales, valued at lakhs of rupees

Looking at our determination , the Government finally relented and connected the power after 2 months

How could we pull this off  ?

Both me - and my boss , the director - were mere paid " Employees " of a large Public Limited Company and could afford to stand firm against this " Unfair / Unjust / Illegal " denial of service

But I doubt if I could have done this if I was myself the owner of a small factory  !

Arvind ,

It is sad to say this , but honest businessmen / industrialists have no choice , but to bribe , when a lawfully due service gets withheld

If all of them were to suddenly stop paying bribes for getting their  due services , then our GDP would dive below 2 % in next 6 months  !

If you come to power - and I hope that you do - please first ensure that no businessman is denied what is legally due to him

*   hemen  parekh  (  04 March 2014  /  Mumbai  )

A Tale of Two Chief Ministers

Yesterday , Nitish Kumar ( CM - Bihar ) , sat on a dharna at Gandhi Maidan in Patna , to persuade Union Government to grant Bihar, a " Special Status "

And what " means " did he employ  ?

>  Enacted drama  by beating utensils

>  Declared Bihar - Bandh ( High Court orders notwithstanding ! )

>  Brought all traffic to a halt

>  Stopped trains in their tracks

>  Forced shops to remain shut

>  Closed down all commerce and trade

>  Took out a huge procession of several hundred supporters from his home,

     escorted by equal number of policemen ( to protect him  ? )

>  Sat near Gandhi Statue for 5 hours ( to shame Mahatma ,re "means"  ? )

>  Caused Bihar , a loss of hundreds of crores of rupees

A few weeks ago , Arvind Kejriwal ( when he was CM - Delhi ) , too , sat on a dharna on a footpath in Delhi , seeking suspension of 2 police officers

How did he go about ?

>  Marched towards office of Home Minister Shinde , with a few supporters

>  On his way , prevented to go further by police

>  Spent the night ( was it 2 nights ? ) on the footpath in biting cold

>  Ate food ( brought from home ), sitting on footpath

>  Did not stop traffic  (  Police did  )

>  Did not stop Metro  ( DMC  did  )

>  Did not shut shops / establishments ( Police slapped Section 144 )

>  Continued to attend to office work - by clearing files/holding meetings

TV Anchors and Congress leaders called him , an Anarchist  !

I must have missed to listen to what TV Anchors called , Nitish Kumar  !

Of course , I did not expect Congress leaders to call him anything - except,

"  Let us make a deal

   You help us return to power and we guarantee special status to Bihar

   Just as we did in case of Telengana

   And just as we will continue to do with similar demands for Bodoland /

   Gorkhaland / Vidarbha etc

   Didn't you notice how we granted reservation to the Jats , last evening ?

   And raised DA for 8 million Government employees  ?

   And cleared projects worth crores of rupees in the constituencies of our

   leaders  ?

   We know , once EC announces elections tomorrow , we cannot dole out

   any more favors  ( that wretched code of conduct will kick-in ! )

   But , our shop is open till today evening  !

   Those willing to strike deals , please hurry  !  "

I believe , Congress leaders must be considering Aam Aadmi  as " Mere Fools "

Not knowing that, at the polling booths, Aam Aadmi will have the last laugh !

*   hemen  parekh  (  03  March  2014  /  Mumbai  )