Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday 9 March 2014

Does AAP have a Chance ?



Does AAP have a chance to win substantial number of seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections  ?


Not , if we go by a Times of India article by Milan Vaishnav ( 02 Feb 2014 )


Following is my interpretation of the article :


>   CRIME  PAYS


     What is the probability of winning election ?


     #  Only 7 % chance of winning if candidate has NO criminal case pending

    #  22 % chance of
 winning if candidate has at least one case pending  !


      PROOF  ?



     Lok Sabha


    *  162 MPs have pending Criminal cases , of which , 76 face " Serious "  
        charges



     State Assemblies


    *  31 % of MLAs have pending Criminal cases , and 15 % face " Serious "
       charges


   Moral of the History  ?


     Give tickets to only those candidates who have one - or more - criminal
     cases pending  !



>   MONEY  WORKS


     What is the probability of winning election  ?


    #  Only 1 % chance of winning if candidate belongs to the poorest 20 %
         of the MPs


    #  A whopping 25 % chance of winning if candidate belongs to the richest
        20 % of the MPs  !



    Moral of the History  ?


    Give tickets to only those candidates who have declared assets of Rs 200
    crore or more




>  CRIME  VS  MONEY



    #  Only 6 % of the POOR ( bottom 20 % ) candidates face Criminal
        charges


    #  Nearly 20 % of the RICH ( top 20 % ) candidates face Criminal
         charges



    Moral of the History  ?


    To ensure 100 % chance of winning, give preference to those candidates ,
    who are both , RICH  and  CRIMINAL   !



   I just don't understand why those AAP aspirants are fighting with Arvind ,
   for getting tickets  ! 

In face of such irrefutable / overwhelming evidence ,
   what can the poor fellow do  ?


   How about asking each aspiring candidate to fill in their personal data  
   in the following formula  ?



            ( CC+NSC ) * FBA/BLD + CA/PRA

P = ------------------------------------------


             (  NPA + NRE ) - PFU

Where ,


P  =  Probability of winning the election

CC =  Number of Criminal cases pending

CA =   Current Assets ( Rs Crores )

PRA =  Rise in Assets in last 3 years (  %  )

NRE =  Number of close relatives

NPA =  Number of times changed political affiliation in past 5 years

NSC =  Number of Scams in which listed

FBA =  Number of Foreign Bank accounts ( not only Swiss banks )


BLD = Number of PSU Bank loan defaults ( only those above Rs 5 Crores )

PFU =  Party Funds used for Campaign



Why leave candidate selection to human judgment  /  bias  ?



It is high time to introduce some transparency in candidate selection process 



   *   hemen  parekh  (  10 Feb 2014 / Mumbai  )

    




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