Taking Stock

As two months get over since announcement of demonetization , it is time to take stock of the situation

Here is a brief list of OBJECTIVES ( some stated at the outset and a few invented as time passed ) , and actual ACHIEVEMENTS :

SHORT TERM OBJECTIVE :

To unearth all BLACK MONEY and suck it into the Banking System ( viz: Rs 500 / 1000 notes )

Achievement  :

Although there is no finality as to the VALUE of old notes that have returned , it does appear that , by and large , this OLD STOCK of " Black Money in CASH " , has been extinguished ( or got cleverly converted into WHITE , if your friendly bankers obliged you for just 30 % ! )

I wonder what Shri Arun Jaitleyji meant by saying yesterday :

" Black Money did not change its color merely by getting deposited in bank "

He has very little supporting evidence to prove in a court that Rs 4 lakh*crore, deposited by individuals, in 60 lakh bank accounts each , was indeed  BLACK  before getting deposited !

Through 1138 searches and issue of 5184 notices , what has the government " achieved " in past 2 months ?

Seizure of Rs 200 crore worth of NEW notes and jewellery ! And referring 526 cases to CBI / ED !

Even as people have forgotten 5 / 15 years old, ongoing court cases , involving corruption  of thousands of crores of rupees , in case of A Raja / Kanimozi / Dayanidhi Maran / Subroto Sahara / Suresh Kalmadi / Lalu Yadav / Coal Scam / Telgi Scam / Bofors Scam etc  !

Going by this history , how many " decades " will CBI / ED take to file 526 FIRs ?

Then there is, a somewhat belated realization that much of the OLD STOCK was in the form of Gold / Jewellery / Land / Benami Property etc , which , just cannot be " demonetized " in short term . 

MEDIUM TERM OBJECTIVE :

To permanently STOP future generation of BLACK MONEY

  

Achievement :

Total failure !

If anything , with introduction of Rs 2000 note , this has been made twice as easy !

There is only ONE WAY . Implement,

For  Want of  A  Nail 

{  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/for-want-of-nail.html }

LONG TERM OBJECTIVE :

To move India to a LESS CASH economy , through an aggressively marketed system of DIGITAL PAYMENTS ( Cards / ATM / Wallets / Electronic Clearances / UPI etc )

Achievement :

This objective is ON TRACK , and likely to take us to 50 % Non-Cash transaction Economy , by 2020

This has come about due to :

*  MSME / Ordinary consumers had NO OTHER ALTERNATIVE ( but go digital ) , in order to

   survive ! ( much like a child learning to swim by thrashing hands / legs , when thrown

   into water , or risk drowning ! )

  

*  Mobile Wallet companies / Banks / FinTech Companies / E Commerce firms , saw a huge

   opportunity for making tons of money by aggressively marketing their digital products !

   Of course , with plenty of help from the Government , offering pittance of " discounts "

   and sundry " prizes " !

  Notwithstanding all of this push to GO DIGITAL , our day-to-day payments will slide back

  to CASH, as soon as there is plenty of supply of Rs 500 notes( no getting away from that )

UNSTATED OBJECTIVES :

*  Interest Rates will come down

    Sure , with a huge influx of funds , most banks have cut their interest rates by 60-80 basis points for lending of loans but so far , there are few takers !

And banks will reduce the interest payable on Savings Accounts , if not already done

*  Direct tax collection will go up

   It is hoped that 6 million Black Money holders who have deposited Rs 7 lakh*crores  into their bank accounts , will come forward to declare their ( so far ) hidden incomes under PMGKY and pay up 50 % tax .

If last Undisclosed Assets Declaration Scheme is any indication, do not expect more than Rs 40,000 crores to get declared , yielding Rs 20,000 cr by way of taxes

*  Billions  of  Rupees will get invested in Infrastructure Projects

   Sure , most of those Rs 7 lakh*cr deposited in banks could get invested in Infra SPVs, if :

   *  No questions are asked as to the source of those deposits ( SPV specific Amnesty

      Scheme )

   *  SPVs cannot declare dividends for 10 years

   *  Investments can be withdrawn after 10 years ( along with accrued dividends ) by

      paying prevailing tax rates

      In fact , such an announcement can bring in a further Rs 70 lakh*crores of fresh

      deposits into banks by Black Money holders liquidating their Gold / Jewellery / Land etc

Dear Shri Jaitleyji :

It is still not too late to ,

Embracethe Inevitable

(http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/embrace-inevitable.html }

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09  Jan  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Model Code of ( Hypocrite ) Conduct ?

For many months now , NDA government had been discussing advancing of Union Budget to 01 Feb of each year

PM Shri Modi even told Chief Secretaries of the States re this in September 2016

Then finally confirmed it on 31st Dec

To be followed by Election Commission's announcement of holding polls in 5 states , starting with Goa on 04 Feb

Now 16 political parties ( opposition ) has asked EC to tell the government , not to offer any sops ( even to the poorest ? ) , in forthcoming budget

Or , postpone the budget after the polls are over in March 2017

Why ?

Opposition argues :

Model Code of Conduct ( which kicked in from 01 Feb ) , prohibits political parties to " bribe the voters " with goodies / freebies etc ( ostensibly to win votes )

I call this , a case of " Selective Amnesia " meaning ,

A case of conveniently forgetting following background :

[  A  ]

On 22 Feb 2014 , following Supreme Court directives , the Election Commission , revised , " Model Code of Conduct " , containing guidelines on what kind of poll promises , political parties can incorporate in their poll manifestos

GUIDELINES

*   Parties shall make only those promises which are possible to be fulfilled

*   It is expected that manifestos also reflect the rationale for the promises

     and broadly indicate the ways and means to meet the financial requirements for it

*   Party in power shall stop advertizing for publicity of achievements

[  B  ]

In its manifesto released on 24 March 2014 , Congress has promised to create 10 Crore ( = 100 million ) new jobs in next 5 years , if voted to power

No explanation / clarification in Congress Manifesto as to how they plan to find Rs 10 crore*crore , to create these jobs !

[  C  ]

During past few weeks ,

*  Akhilesh Yadav has promised to give away ( of course, FREE ) , Smart phones to all young people of UP.( How can he forget 10 lakh FREE laptops that brought him to power ! )

*  Captain Amrinder Singh has promised , not only Smart phones but also JOBS to 91

lakh young people of Punjab

Now , you may say :

Hey ! These promises were " OUTSIDE " of Manifesto and made  BEFORE  the Code of Conduct kicked in ! So that don't count !

[  D  ]

And if you ponder the following scenario, then it would appear that we would have Model Code of Conduct operating in some or other part of our country , ALL ROUND THE YEAR !

>  Out of 545 MPs , some 163 ( 30 % ) are facing criminal cases

I go on to assume that ,

>  Out of a total of 4131 MLAs , a similar 30 % are facing criminal cases

That is , some 1,239 MLAs

A grand total of 163 + 1239 = 1,402 " tainted " legislators  !

Now , let us further assume that , only 30 % of this 30 % , are facing " Serious " criminal charges , where , if convicted , they will get a prison term of 5 years or more

{  Supreme Court had requested the incoming government in 2014, to set up special court to dispose off, all these cases within ONE YEAR ! }

That is 1402 * 30 % = 420  ( believe me , a sheer coincidence ! )

Once convicted , they will be disqualified as MP / MLA , creating that many vacancies  

All of this ( simplistic ) arithmetic translates into following election scenario :

QUALIFYING  ELECTIONS  ( ONCE IN  5  YEARS )

*   545 MPs

*   4131 MLAs

REPLACEMENT  ELECTIONS  ( THROUGHOUT  5  YEARS )

*  48  MPs  ( Serious Crimes - 30% of 163 )

*  372 MLAs ( Serious Crimes - 30 % of 1239 )

We will get to exercise our birth-right ( to Vote ) , EVERYDAY  ! Long live VOTE-CRACY !

Under such a scenario, the Central Government dare not present any benefits for the poor , in ANY YEAR's Budget, for fear of violating Model Code of Conduct !

[  E  ]

Now one more example of whatever is " MODEL ", in the CONDUCT of our Political Parties

( apart from anonymous CASH donations and failing to submit statement of income and expenditure to Election Commission )  :

*  Despite CIC ( Central Information Commission ) holding that

    *   Political parties fulfill the criteria of being " PUBLIC AUTHORITIES ", and

    *  Answerable to the public under the RTI ( Right to Information Act ) ,

    *  Must designate CPIOs / Appellate Authorities at their headquarters in six weeks,

In Sept 2015 ,

The NDA government has filed an affidavit before the Supreme Court (SC) backing immunity for political parties from making disclosures under the RTI Act.

With the government in solidarity with political parties resisting RTI at the cost of losing the trust of people, it may find it difficult to defend its stand in court but also to justify it.

Not to be left behind , in June 2016 , Congress told CIC ,

" To set aside its 2013 full bench order, saying it is neither a court nor a competent authority to exercise plenary jurisdiction and the order is “arbitrary and illegal.”

[  F  ]

Election Commission has asked NDA government to state its position , before 10th Feb , on the objections raised by the Opposition Parties

I presume , Shri Arun Jaiteleyji  will reply as follows :

Dear Sir :

I promise that in my Budget Speech on 01 Feb 2017 , all of my proposals / schemes , will be in respect of ONLY the following promises , which we made some 3 years ago in our 2014 Poll Manifesto , and these will cover ALL citizens.

THERE WILL BE NO SOPS , OUTSIDE OF THESE :

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  Elimination of  Black Money   

   

*  Special Courts to stop Hoarding / Black-Marketing

*  Set-up a Price-Stabilization Fund

*  Develop Labour-intensive Manufacturing   

*  Empowering Youth for Self-Employment   

*  Transforming Employment Exchanges to Career Centers

*  Eliminating Corruption thru E-Governance   

*  Rationalization / Simplification of Tax-Regime  

*  Insulate Intelligence Agencies from political intervention   

*  Strengthening Physical Infrastructure  

*  Expediting work on Freight and Industrial Corridors

*  Setting up Gas-Grids  

*  Optical Fiber Network up to the village level

   

*  Quadrilateral project for Bullet Trains       

*  Establishment of National  " E - Library "     

*  Implementation of National Education Policy

*  Evolving further the PPP model to PPPP model  

*  Building 100 Mega-Cities  

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In yesterday's BJP convention , Shri Modi asked party members , not to get distracted by opposition criticism, not recommend relatives for election tickets and work for the POOR

We will know by afternoon of  01 Feb 2017

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08  Jan  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Dear Sundar Pichai

06  Jan  2017

Challenges   Worthy   of   Google  ?

Dear  Sundar  Pichai :

During your interview last evening with Vikram Chandra ( NDTV ) , you said :

"  I like to work on finding solutions to challenging problems . I like to find solutions that millions of people around the World can use to simplify their lives and empower them

I believe, through use of Aadhar based apps , such solutions can make a huge difference to Education , Healthcare , Economy etc

At Google , we are committed to come up with innovative technologies in the area of AI / Machine Learning / Language Translation / Speech Recognition etc , for incorporating into our innovations

We are actively helping Indian Government in extending the reach of internet to farthest corners of India . Someday , we hope to bring out Google Pixel smart phone at $ 30 , which will incorporate bio-metric recognition / Google Translate / Google Assistant / Google Action etc  "

All of this was very heartening  !

Here are my suggestions for solving some of those  "

 CHALLENGING  PROBLEMS " :

---------------------------------------------------------------------

[  A  ]    

To eliminate  MAL-NUTRITION  which claims lives of  1.2 MILLION  children in India , each year

    "  BAN-MALI is the Total Solution " ( Ban Mal Nutrition in India )

    { http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/banmali-is-total-solution.html }

--------------------------------------------------------------------

[  B  ]   

To provide an end-to-end , comprehensive  HEALTH CARE  solution to  1.3 BILLION  Indians

  " 3D- Digital Delivery of Drugs "

   { http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/10/3-d-digital-delivery-of-drugs.html }

---------------------------------------------------------------------

[  C  ]   

 To ensure " REDRESSAL OF GRIEVANCES  "  to citizens

  "  I SIN    U  SIN  "  ( I Seek It Now , You Solve It Now )

    {  http://www.hemenparekh.com/2013/08/i-sin-sin-that-could-be-name-of-android.html  }

--------------------------------------------------------------------

[  D  ]   

 To enable  SIMULTANEOUS POLLS  ( Lok Sabha + States ) , on a single day

  "  VotesApp "

  {  http://www.hemenparekh.in/2013/08/votesapp.html  }

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

[  E  ]   

 To save thousands of lives in  CAR ACCIDENTS ,  caused by drunk drivers :

     "  Incorporate into steering wheels of cars , a sensor that reads the level of  ALCOHOL  in the blood

     stream of the driver's hands and shuts it down ( or refuses to start ) , if level exceeds permissible limit

     May be , this sensor can also detect presence of banned  DRUGS  in the blood , besides pulse rate

-------------------------------------------------------------------

[  F  ]   

 Simplification of  MOBILE WALLET  , which requires  NO TYPING  into the App  /  ONLY SPEAKING

   " Google Can  Read  your  Mind  ? "

   {  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/google-can-read-your-mind.html  }

--------------------------------------------------------------------

[  G  ]  

  How  to  catch  BLACK  MONEY  ?

  "  Fak-e-Mon " 

{  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/07/fak-e-mon.html  }

  "  March of  Algorithm "

{ http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-march-of-algorithms.html }

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[  H  ]   

REDUCTION OF POLLUTION  caused  by  Petrol / Diesel  Vehicles

 "  A Radical  Radial  Revolution  ? "

  {  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/08/a-radical-radial-revolution.html  }

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Sundar :

I hope this email does not land in your " junk mail " box

It would definitely reach you , if Google were to implement :

Next Generation  Newspapers  ?

{ http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/03/next-generation-newspaper.html }

IT Notice : What will it say ?

Newspaper reports say that IT department is in the process of sending notices to some 60 lakh citizens who have deposited in their bank accounts , more than Rs 2 lakh each , since demonetization announcement on 08 Nov

Aggregate deposits are Rs 7 lakh*crore

Apparently , IT department thinks that BLACK MONEY holders have used these accounts of poor people to convert their BLACK into WHITE

What will this notice say ?

Here is my guess :

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Mango Man / Woman ,

*  Since 08 Nov , you have deposited Rs 2 lakh in your bank account

*  From our records, we find that you have not filed any Income Tax return , in past 10

    years

*  Please show cause why a case should not be filed against you for

  " POSSESSION OF ASSETS, DISPROPORTIONATELY MORE THAN YOUR KNOWN SOURCES

    OF INCOME "

  

Yours Truly ( tormentor ) ,

XYZ Officer / ABC Circle

PS :

There is no need to hurry with your reply since we are sending this notice to 60 lakh persons like you , of which , we will select the top 10 % ( ie , 6 lakh ) for filing a case

With our present capacity to file 6,000 cases per year , your turn may come after 100 years

You are requested to stick around till then or keep your heirs informed about the following

fact :

*  In a written reply in Lok Sabha last week , Minister of State for Finance , Santosh Kumar

   Gangwar said that , as of Oct 31 , 2016 , 238 prosecution complaints have been filed and

   and properties worth Rs 18,866 cr have been attached

*  Based on the information submitted by Indian Authorities to the US as part of

   cooperation , the INSCR ( Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research ) states ,

   " ... the government has not won any court cases involving money laundering or

    confiscations ... Money laundering investigations without a predicate offense are rarely

   successfully prosecuted in the Indian judicial system and even if they are , the resulting

   punishment is often minimal "

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In light of the forgoing, I advise the recipients to reply as follows :

Dear Tax Tormentor,

At the outset , my thankful gratitude for taking cognizance of my existence !

Here is WHY , you should NOT file any case , as suggested by you

*  My annual income for the  past 10 years , has always been less than Tax-Exemption limit

*  Every year , I have been saving Rs 20,000 from my meager income and keeping the cash

   in a cupboard . Now , any economist will confirm that a Domestic Savings Rate of 10 % is

   highly desirable ( you know , " Saving for the Rainy Day " ! )

* When our PM announced demonetization , I was left with no alternative , other than

  depositing my hard-earned savings into my bank account

*  My neighbour tells me ( - I cannot afford a CA or a Lawyer ) that there is no law against

   holding any amount of legitimate / hard earned / non-taxable CASH in house !

*  By limiting the monthly withdrawals , of my own hard earned money, from my own bank

    account , you have already made my life miserable !  Even without filing a case and

   waiting for the Hon Judge to find me guilty , you have succeeded in punishing me !

*  We , the sufferers are asking YOU to show cause , why WE should not try you in the

   Court of the Election Commission, in the  STATE ELECTIONS  about to be held in Feb /

   March, for

    " POSSESSION OF  WISDOM, DISPROPORTIONATELY LESS THAN YOUR KNOWN SOURCE

      OF POWER "

with regards,

Yours Hatefully,

Mango Man ( A Jan without Dhan )

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07  Jan  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs