How much Capital to create One job ?

   

Some ONE MILLION  ( ten lakh ) youngsters enter the job market , EACH MONTH

How much CAPITAL ( fixed + working ) would be required to give jobs to all of them ?

Following are my guesses to create just ONE JOB in :

·         Pan Beedi shop ( self-employed )………….Rs   1   lakh

·         Tiny grocery shop ( owner operated )…. Rs   3   lakh

·         Barber shop …………………………………………..Rs   5   lakh

·         Pharmacy shop……………………………………… Rs   10  lakh

·         Auto Repair Garage………………………………. Rs   20  lakh

·         Small Factory ( 50 people )………………..   Rs   50  lakh

·         Medium Factory ( 100 people )……………. Rs   75  lakh

·         Large light engineering factory………………Rs  100  lakh ( Rs 1 cr  )

{ Just proposed SAMSUNG factory in UP will invest Rs 5,000 cr and , at full capacity , employ 5,000 people }

·         Machine Tool Manufacturing factory………………….   Rs  2  crore

·         Heavy Engineering factory ( Pressure Vessels )…. Rs  5  crore

·         Service Industry ( based on IT / internet )…………. Rs  50 lakh

It is not difficult to see WHY jobs are not getting created , despite the fact that we have a huge DOMESTIC MARKET to serve 1.3 BILLION people !

It would require a huge amount of CAPITAL to create jobs for 12 million people, each year

On top of that , labour costs ( in organized sector ) are rising very rapidly , prompting the businessmen / industrialists to resort to “ mechanization / automation “

A report in Times of India ( 09 June ) , titled ,

“ India Inc deploys more capital than labour “ ,

provides following information ( source / Annual Survey of Industries / CSO ) :

·         Employment Growth ( 1980-2015 )………………. 1.9 % per annum

·         Capital Growth – CAGR ( 1980-2015 )…………… 14 %

·         No of Employees / factory :

#  Early 1980s……………  80

#  2014-15………………..  60

·         Total Capital Employed / Factory :

#  Early 1980s…………..  Rs 5 lakh

#  2014 – 15…………….   Rs 10 Crore

·         Unit of Labour :

#  Early 1980s…………  Rs 10,000 per year

#  2014 – 15 …………   Rs 157,000 per year

·         In 2009 – 10 :

#  Cost of a Unit of Labour……………. Rs 1.47 lakh

#  Cost of a Unit of Capital…………..  Rs 1.32 lakh

·         In 2014 -15 :

#  Cost of a Unit of Labour…………..  Rs 2.54 lakh

#  Cost of a Unit of Capital……………  Rs 1.46 lakh

Since businesses / industries in large organized sector have to get ever more “ Competitive “ with arrival of Foreign Companies in India , it is not surprising that they are resorting to more and more “ mechanization / automation “ , given the above-mentioned scenario

That means less and less job opportunities !  More and more unemployment  !

IS THERE A WAY OUT ?

May be , if we set aside some “ holy cow “ beliefs and make India , a “ Low Cost Economy “

Policy Makers may want to consider following suggestions :

·         ATicking  Time  Bomb

     { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2014/02/a-ticking-time-bomb.html }

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·         Create  Wealth to  create  Jobs

     { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2014/02/create-wealth-to-create-jobs.html }

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·         A  Virtuous Circle

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/01/a-virtuous-circle.html }

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·         Ideas  to create  Jobs

    {  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/08/ideas-to-create-jobs.html  }

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·         Time  to Rethink

 

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/08/time-to-re-think.html }

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·         Making  India a  Tax  Haven ?

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/04/making-india-tax-haven.html  }

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·         What  would they  do  ?

   {  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/05/what-would-they-do.html  }

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·         Automationis inescapable

    {  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/automation-is-inescapable.html  }

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·         OneUp on Donald  Trump

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/one-up-on-donald-trump.html }

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·         Sun :Our Soul

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/sun-our-soul-new-sos.html  }

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·         Solar  Power at  Rs  1 per Kwh  ?

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/solar-power-at-rs-1-per-kwh.html  }

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It is still not too late  !

22  June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs 

BHIM : Can You tango with GST ?

In another ten days , GST will roll out across India on July 01

Businesses / Industries / Experts / Tax Consultants / Politicians and even 80+ lakh tax assesses are worried to death about possible disruption to businesses

Government officers do not deny that there might be a chaos , considering that nothing like this reform has ever been attempted in any other country, on this scale

ASSOCHAM and others , have requested postponement of the roll out date

As per news reports , some 67 lakh business tax payers have already “ Registered “ on GSTN portal

Big companies , buying goods / services from small companies, are bringing pressure on these suppliers to get registered or else the buying companies will stop buying and cancel pending orders

This is because , the big buying companies will have to fork out 28 % GST , without getting any “ Input Credit “ if their small suppliers are not registered !

This is a good pressure tactic for obtaining quick compliance !

Hopefully, most problems will get sorted out in 6 months , with the Government officers and the GST Council responding to each problem , as it surfaces

One major issue is the number of :

·         Daily invoices to be uploaded ( could be 500 for a hotel ? )

·          

·         GSTR 1-2-3B, Monthly returns to be filed ( could be hundreds ? )

·          

Whereas this exercise cannot be avoided for ALL types of assesses , I think it could be avoided for “ Payment Transactions “ which get made using Mobile Wallet App – BHIM V 4.0 ( Voice Activated payments )

In BHIM 4.0 , I have suggested incorporating a feature for deduction and deposition of applicable GST , into concerned account automatically !

And if BHIM V 4.0 , can deduct / deposit GST automatically / instantaneously, there is no ( technical ) reason why it cannot , also upload the relevant INVOICE pertaining to each payment and also upload those RETURNS as per schedule, on GSTN portal  !

This is possible since Aadhar Number ( ID ) is now linked to almost all of the following databases , currently being maintained by different government agencies / private concerns :

·         Bank Accounts ( from Dec 2017 ) / Jan Dhan Accounts

·         PAN ( Corporate and Individual Tax Payers )

·         Registrar of Companies / MSME Ministry

·         RTO of different States ( For Road Tax / Vehicle Tax )

·         Municipalities ( for Property Tax )

·         GSTN Portal

·         IT department / Sales Tax Department

·         Mobile Wallet Companies / Credit – Debit card Issuers

·         Excise Department / Customs Department

·         Police Department / Labour Department

·         NSSO / Election Commission ( Voter Identification )

·         A whole host of agencies

It is only a matter of time before these agencies / departments :

·         Enable Aadhar linked “ Data Exchange “ between these agencies

·         Enable total “ Synchronization “ of their departmental data bases

·         Agree to dump all data collected by them into a CENTRAL DATA BASE

BENEFITS :

·         Enormous saving of time / effort on part of small establishments ( retailers / self employed ) who accept payment using BHIM V 4.0

IMPLICATION FOR BHIM V 4.0 :

·         If BHIM 4.0 can save them the hassle of daily uploading of invoices , millions of small retailers / self-employed would use ONLY BHIM V 4.0 – and no other mobile wallets !

IS  THIS  POSSIBLE  ?

·         Correct question should be : “ When can BHIM V 4.0 , with feature to automatically upload invoices / GST returns , be launched ? “

HINT :

Could following help to implement my suggestion ?

·         https://www.linkedin.com/company-beta/13186874/

·         https://www.digio.in/

·         www.GupShup.com

·         https://backend.yourstory.com/2017/06/facebook-uses-artificial-intelligence-counter-terrorism/

I SEE NO REASON WHY BHIM CANNOT TANGO WITH GST  !

20  June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Will Robots get better than Humans ?

There is a general agreement among the scientists / technocrats that , in some respects at least , robots will get better at doing things , as compared to human beings

Some of these experts have even gone to the extent of predicting which jobs will be taken over by the robots – and when

But some scepticism persists in respect of a robot’s ability to copy and display “ human emotions and feelings “

Eg : Empathy

This is a “ feeling “ that  I believe a Software Agent ( - a Chat Bot ? ) could be trained to acquire if someone was to implement :

Share  Your Soul

{https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/07/share-your-soul-outsourcing-unlimited.html }

Following news report ( Mumbai Mirror / 17 June ) , reinforces my belief :

“ New algorithm teaches robots human etiquette “

Scientists have developed a new machine-learning algorithm to help robots display appropriate social behaviour in interactions with humans.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are making virtual and robotic assistants increasingly capable in performing complex tasks, researchers said.

For these “smart” machines to be considered safe and trustworthy collaborators with human partners, however, robots must be able to quickly assess a given situation and apply human social norms, they said.

Now, researchers at Brown University and Tufts University in the US have created a cognitive-computational model of human norms in a representation that can be coded into machines.

They developed a machine-learning algorithm that allows machines to learn norms in unfamiliar situations drawing on human data.

The project funded by the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) represents important progress towards the development of AI systems that can “intuit” how to behave in certain situations in much the way people do.

“The goal of this research effort was to understand and formalise human normative systems and how they guide human behaviour, so that we can set guidelines for how to design next generation AI machines that are able to help and interact effectively with humans,” said Reza Ghanadan, DARPA programme manager.

As an example in which humans intuitively apply social norms of behaviour, consider a situation in which a cell phone rings in a quiet library, researchers said.

A person receiving that call would quickly try to silence the distracting phone, and whisper into the phone before going outside to continue the call in a normal voice.

Today, an AI phone-answering system would not automatically respond with that kind of social sensitivity.

“We do not currently know how to incorporate meaningful norm processing into effective computational architectures,” Ghanadan said, adding that social and ethical norms have a number of properties that make them uniquely challenging.

Ultimately, for a robot to become social or perhaps even ethical, it will need to have a capacity to learn, represent, activate, and apply a large number of norms that people in a given society expect one another to obey, Ghanadan said.

That task will prove far more complicated than teaching AI systems rules for simpler tasks such as tagging pictures, detecting spam, or guiding people through their tax returns.

However, by providing a framework for developing and testing such complex algorithms, the new research could bring machines that emulate the best of human behaviour closer, researchers said.

18 June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

A Living Room on the Go ?

Following news report appeared in Business Line ( 07 June ) :

“ Tata Elxsi too joins autonomous car bandwagon “

Tata Elxsi is testing prototypes of autonomous cars that could soon head for road trials provided necessary regulatory approvals are in place.

While Tesla, Google, Volvo, Uber and most major automotive companies have made rapid strides in terms of autonomous cars, Tata Elxsi, the Bengaluru-based technology company focussing on automotive electronics and software, has laced together various technologies on its platform built on artificial intelligence towards developing the autonomous car.

It has licensed its advanced autonomous technology platform Autonomai to one of the world’s top five automotive OEMs for driverless car research and development.

Thangarajan M, Senior Vice-President, Next Generation Business, Tata Elxsi, told BusinessLine :

“We are working on two prototypes of autonomous cars. One is fairly high-end artificial intelligence packed with radar, 3-D Lidar and simulation facilities.

The second one is pretty low-end sedan without much electronics where a number of elements have been loaded.”

According to him, “Artificial intelligence-based systems will become integral part of cars covering speech recognition, driver monitoring and sensor-based engine control units.

 While autonomous cars may still take more time to get on to roads, various elements that go into such cars will be all-pervasive.”

What started with pedestrian alerts and collision alerts has evolved into intelligence built into the systems.

Over the next five years, human-machine interface covering speech recognition, gesture, handwriting, eye tracking and driver monitoring, virtual assistance and natural language interfaces would make a collective impact.

“We have worked with major automotive OEMs to analyse the impact of vehicle operation and vehicle data has been co-related with driver.

The work includes night vision systems, lane depart feature, signboard recognition, pedestrian detection systems, parking assistance systems, driver drowsiness system and blind spot warning systems,” he said.

“I believe it won't be long before a car becomes a  living room on the go, ” he said.

{ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/15/automobiles/wheels/driverless-cars-interior.html?_r=0 }

Now that TATA have put their technological prowess behind autonomous cars , my vision of Internet of Vehicles ( IoV ) , cannot be far behind !

Internet of Vehicles ( IoV )

{ https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/03/internet-of-vehicles-iov.html }

18  June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in/ blogs