Will the 2014 national elections throw up a "
Black Swan " event ?
Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan " ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :
> It is an
" OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,
because nothing
in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
> It carries
an " EXTREME IMPACT "
> In spite of
its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct
" EXPLANATION
" for its occurrence , after the fact , making it
explainable and
PREDICTABLE
In brief ,
> Rarity
> Extreme
Impact
>
Retrospective Predictability
According to Taleb ,
> The highly
expected " not happening ", is also a Black Swan
Example of Black Swan
?
> Kumar
Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul
Gandhi in
2014 - and defeating him !
Here is why :
> Amethi Lok
Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for
past many
decades . To save face , no other political party fields any
heavy-weight candidate from Amethi ( RARITY
)
> A Kumar
Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds
of Aam Aadmi
Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in
their
respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose
their
deposits ! ( EXTREME IMPACT )
> What makes
Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE ?
Simple
* People don't want " more of the same
" for another 5 years .
( viz :
Dynasty Rule )
* People want a change
* People believe , AAP will eliminate
corruption
* People think AAP will work for the benefit of
the poor
* People have seen what AAP government
delivered within 48 hours
of assuming
power in Delhi
* BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this
blog nor read " Black
Swan " !
No doubt , experts debating election results on TV
channels , in June 2014
( after the fact ) , will concoct many other "
Explanations " to justify the
occurrence of this Black Swan !
* hemen parekh
( 03 Jan
2014 / Mumbai )
No comments:
Post a Comment