Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday 2 January 2014

A Black Swan ?



Will the 2014 national elections throw up a " Black Swan " event  ?


Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan "  ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :


>  It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,
    because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility


>  It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "


>  In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct  
     " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it
     explainable and  PREDICTABLE

   

In brief ,


>   Rarity


>   Extreme Impact


>   Retrospective Predictability


According to Taleb ,


>   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan


Example of Black Swan  ?


>  Kumar Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul
    Gandhi in 2014 - and defeating him  !


Here is why  :


>   Amethi Lok Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for
     past many decades . To save face , no other political party fields any
    heavy-weight candidate from Amethi  (  RARITY  )



>   A Kumar Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds
     of Aam Aadmi Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in
     their respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose
    their deposits ! ( EXTREME  IMPACT  )



>   What makes Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE  ?


     Simple


     *  People don't want " more of the same " for another 5 years .
        ( viz : Dynasty Rule )


     *  People want a change


     *  People believe , AAP will eliminate corruption


     *  People think AAP will work for the benefit of the poor

     *  People have seen what AAP government delivered within 48 hours
         of assuming power in Delhi


     *  BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this blog nor read " Black
         Swan  " !


No doubt , experts debating election results on TV channels , in June 2014
( after the fact ) , will concoct many other " Explanations " to justify the
occurrence of this Black Swan  !




*   hemen   parekh   (  03  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai )

   

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