Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday, 9 February 2020

Betting On Black Swan ?



Acknowledgement :

Some of the information reproduced below, is sourced from :



Definition of a Black Swan :

·          It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,
      because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

·         It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "

·         In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct  
     " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it
     explainable and  PREDICTABLE


In brief ,


·         Rarity

·         Extreme Impact

·         Retrospective Predictability


According to Nassem Taleb, author of book “ Back Swan “ :

*   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan

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Following tabulation shows some of the Electric Cars { displayed at AUTO EXPO-2020 } which are expected to be launched in 2020

Does any of these look like a Black Swan ?

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Srl No
Brand
Battery Capacity(Kwh )
Range ( Km )
Expected Price
( Rs Lakh )
Price / Kwh of Li-ion Battery
( Rs Lakh )
1
Audi e Tron
95
400
90
0.95
2
Jaguar Pace
90
470
100
1.11
3
Porche Tycan
79.2
333 - 407
108
1.36
4
MG ZS EV
44.5
340
21
0.47
5
BMW  i  3
42
150 - 200
100
2.4
6
Nissan Leaf
40
230 - 250
35
0.9
7
M&M XUV 300 EV
40
200 – 300
13
0.32
8
Tata Nexon EV
30.2
300
14
0.46
9
Tata Altroz EV
30
300
14
0.47
10
M&M  e KUV 100
15.9
140
8.5
0.53
11
Maruti Suzuki Futuro


6.2 - 8

12
GWM ( China ) Ora R 1




13
Hyundai Kona

450
25



Which could qualify as a Black Swan among Electric Cars ?


None of the above

It would be a car that would eliminate the need for thousands of road-side ( Lithium-ion ) Battery Charging Stations


Currently, there are about 58,000 petrol / diesel pumps

{ read :    25,000 New Petrol Pumps ? Why ?   }



As far as Battery Charging Stations are concerned, current scenario is as follows :

Ø  Sanctioned ( in 62 cities ) …………………… 2,636
Ø  Of which, by TATA Power……………………….  5,00
Ø  By ONGC………………………………………………… 1,400
Ø  Plus , by Government……………………………14,000


Depending upon “ fast charging “ capability, cost of setting up a Battery Charging Station can go up to Rs 25 lakhs



Are there any Black Swan candidates among Electric Cars ?

Yes !

There are two strong contenders ( - pity they did not / could not display at Auto Expo )


[ A ]

Cars with Solar roof-top panels , charging a small Li-ion Battery, as long as roof is exposed to sun light .

If some charging is required, it can be done at night from a domestic outlet, but no need for road-side battery charging stations !  No “ range anxiety “ !

Our own ISRO has demonstrated such a Maruti Van , nearly 3 years back :
Solar Panels charging Li-ion Batteries of Electric Cars ?                               [ 04 May 2017 ]


And Dilip Chitre of Nagpur , too has developed a prototype :

Congratulations, Dilip Chitre                                                                      [ 28 Oct 2019 ]

 

Then there are foreign contenders like :

Let Us go Dutch !                                                                                    [ 21 Jan 2018 ]

 

 

[ B ]


Cars that use Metal – Air batteries , which do not need road-side battery charging . 

These batteries get charged using AIR which surrounds us !

Here is information on possible contenders :

A PM with “ Inside Information “ ?                                                            [ 04 Feb 2020 ]

Congratulations , Shri GopuKumarji                                                          [ 30 Jan 2019 ]

Ashok Leyland : On the double                                                                 [ 01 Apr 2018 ]

Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles                                                                   [ 17 Feb 2018 ]

EV juice from Alu-Air Battery ?                                                                  [ 16 Jan 2018 ]

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope our Policy Makers realize / appreciate the importance of above-mentioned ALTERNATIVES

Then again, a Black Swan could also show up, if :

 

Ø  Oil sells for $ 100 / barrel , and

Ø  Rupee slides to $ 1 = Rs 100  ?


That would cost Rs 10,000 to buy a barrel of oil, which when refined, would yield between 40 – 70 litre of petrol ( depending upon the quality of crude ) . Let us assume, 50 litre of refined petrol from 1 barrel of crude

So , before refining, the RAW MATERIAL COST would be Rs 200 per litre of petrol  !

For you , that would translate to  Rs 450 per litre  at the petrol pump !

You do not have to be an expert to guess what such a scenario could mean to our economy

Of course, a great majority of experts would assure us that there is a very low probability of such an event happening

 

========================================================


10  Feb  2020

hcp@RecruitGuru.com

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