Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday 21 April 2021

Dr Harshvardhanji, please listen to Shri Chandrasekharji

 


 

Shri N Chandrasekharji  [  nchandra@tata.com ] , recently said :


“ The best thing we can do immediately is to have PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS to know where the cases will rise next “


( source : Technology can solve country’s key problems :  Tata Sons Chairman  )

 

Shri Chandrasekharji is a much-respected leader of IT industry and a technocrat par excellence


He speaks rarely, but when he does, his are the “ Words of Wisdom “, coming from a deep domain knowledge


QUESTION :

How can we go about that business of PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS ?


ANSWER :

By compiling / capturing following DATA about each and every Indian citizen ( affected or so far not affected , by COVID ) :

( source :   Vaccine : a Case of Missing Data     /    09 April 2021 )


Extract :

Ø  It ( analysis / publishing ) can be done by some SOFTWARE, without human intervention

Ø  Analyzing / Publishing can be DAILY and AUTOMATIC, from data flowing in from all VDC ( Vaccine Delivery Centres ) / Govt Agency releasing orders / schedules / Vaccine Suppliers – Transporters – Recipients etc) 

Ø  Based on EXTRAPOLATION ( Weighed Averages modified by TREND ANALYSIS ), that software can even PREDICT the number of dozes that will be needed by each and every VDC for the next 7 days and accordingly issue to the Vaccine Manufacturers, precise DELIVERY SCHEDULES ( no humans )

Ø  These DELIVERY SCHEDULES themselves must be clearly viewable on COWIN portal, for each and every VDC and totaled for each and every State

Ø  The analysis must also display the “ No of dozes wasted “ due to expiry and other reasons

Ø  Cowin website must also show, for each and every VDC ( Date / Month wise ), a tabulation as follows :

      #  Date

     #  Opening Stock

     #  Receipt during the day ( linked with Consignment Details )

     #  Consumed during the day

     #  Closing Stock 

===================================================


(  Source :  “ Individual Health Records “ for Disease Prevention   /  06 Feb 2021 )

 

  ==================================================

  ( source :   National Clinical Registry on Covid…………………/   29 Sept 2020  )

 

Ø  This data MUST be compiled BEFORE vaccinating because once a person gets vaccinated, he may not stick around to furnish the “ additional demographic data “ !  

        Health workers cannot be made to run after thousands of absconding

        citizen !

         

       HOW WILL SUCH COMPILATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA HELP ?

Ø  Applying AI ( Artificial Intelligence ) to the ever-growing National Health Data Vault, will enable us to PREDICT, which SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS are most VULNERABLE now ( for getting infected with Covid in the near future ) and which groups are most susceptible later on to some other unknown future pandemics )

    

Ø  Any compromise / shortcut on such MASSIVE DATA COMPILATION ( before vaccination ), will render the entire exercise infructuous ( costing Rs 50,000 crore, for the cost of vaccine + billions of MAN-HOURS spent by 1370 million citizen and health workers ) !

 

Ø  We would fail to “ Reap the Full Benefit “ of the ECONOMIC COST incurred of this ONE-TIME exercise, for PREVENTING future virus outbreaks !

 

Ø  I urge Dr Harshvardhan , to ensure that the steering committees of ALL the States follow ( without compromise ), ONLINE DATA COLLECTION FORMS , hosted on the Central Server , as described at :

      National Clinical Registry   

 

Ø  Everyone MUST use :

            Same FORM , hosted on same CENTRAL PORTAL , (using any device and

            from anywhere )

=====================================================

( source :   Rationing of Covid Vaccine ?   /   06 July 2020   )

 

Extract :

How to determine these priorities, scientifically / un-biasedly , for 700 million people ?


No human expert , no matter how intelligent , can process and co-relate ALL the data , quickly and continuously ( since data keeps changing all the time ) for the following :


       Ø    Data about   Persons already infected  ……….. ( cured / died / under

             treatment )

       Ø    Data about   Persons not infected so far “………. (  and needing

             vaccination )

 

But, if meticulously compiled and centrally processed ( with help of Artificial Intelligence ), following data, compiled uniformly at source, could determine those “ VACCINATION  PRIORITIES “ :

 

[ A ]   PERSONAL  DATA

                Ø   Name / Birthdate ( for Age ) / Gendre / Contact Details / Aadhar

                      number

 

[ B ]   LOCATION  DATA

                Ø   Permanent Address / Current Address ( State – Jilla – City – locality ) /

                     Red Zone / Containment

 

[ C ]   FAMILY  DATA

                Ø   Details of Parents / Siblings

 

[ D ]   HEALTH  HISTORY

                Ø    Details of recent illnesses - morbidity / Medicines given ( including for

                      Covid treatment ) / Hospitals where treated / Names & License

                      Number of Doctor who treated

                      

 [ E ]   ETHNIC  DATA

               Ø    Race / Religion  / Language ( Mother tongue )

 

[ F ]   EDUCATIONAL  DATA

               Ø    Graduate – Under Graduate – Illiterate etc

 

[ G ]    EMPLOYMENT  DATA

                Ø  Employed – Unemployed – Self employed

 

[ H ]    INCOME  DATA

               Ø  Monthly Income (to determine whether RICH–MIDDLE CLASS–POOR )

 

 

Why should we compile such data for all Indians ( suffering from Covid or not ) ?

 

Quote from : 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/racial-data-transparency

 

As more data about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic becomes available, it is increasingly clear that the disease is hitting the most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations in the U.S. the hardest.

Although racial and ethnic information is currently available for only about 35% of the total deaths in the U.S., even this limited sample shows that Black Americans and other historically disadvantaged groups are experiencing infection and death rates that are disproportionately high for their share of the total population.

For example, while Black Americans represent only about 13% of the population in the states reporting racial/ethnic information, they account for about 34% of total Covid-19 deaths in those states. Asian Americans and Latinx Americans also show elevated impacts in some regions.

==================================================

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@recruitGuru.com  /  22 April 2021

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