Shri N Chandrasekharji [ nchandra@tata.com ] , recently said :
“ The best thing we can do immediately is to have PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
to know where the cases will rise next “
( source : Technology
can solve country’s key problems : Tata
Sons Chairman )
Shri Chandrasekharji is a much-respected leader of IT
industry and a technocrat par excellence
He speaks rarely, but when he does, his are the “ Words of Wisdom “, coming
from a deep domain knowledge
QUESTION :
How can we go about that business of PREDICTIVE
ANALYSIS ?
ANSWER :
By compiling / capturing following DATA about each and
every Indian citizen ( affected or so far not affected , by COVID ) :
( source : Vaccine
: a Case of Missing Data / 09
April 2021 )
Extract :
Ø It (
analysis / publishing ) can be done by some SOFTWARE, without human intervention
Ø Analyzing
/ Publishing can be DAILY and AUTOMATIC, from data flowing in from all VDC (
Vaccine Delivery Centres ) / Govt Agency releasing orders / schedules / Vaccine
Suppliers – Transporters – Recipients etc)
Ø Based
on EXTRAPOLATION ( Weighed Averages modified by TREND ANALYSIS ), that software can even PREDICT the
number of dozes that will be needed by each and every VDC for the next 7 days
and accordingly issue to the Vaccine Manufacturers, precise DELIVERY
SCHEDULES ( no humans )
Ø These
DELIVERY SCHEDULES themselves must be clearly viewable on COWIN portal, for
each and every VDC and totaled for each and every State
Ø The
analysis must also display the “ No of dozes wasted “ due
to expiry and other reasons
Ø Cowin
website must also show, for each and every VDC ( Date / Month wise ), a
tabulation as follows :
# Date
# Opening Stock
# Receipt during the day (
linked with Consignment Details )
# Consumed during the day
# Closing
Stock
===================================================
( Source : “
Individual Health Records “ for Disease Prevention / 06 Feb 2021 )
==================================================
( source : National
Clinical Registry on Covid…………………/ 29 Sept 2020 )
Ø This data MUST be compiled BEFORE vaccinating because once a person gets vaccinated, he
may not stick
Health workers cannot be made to run after thousands of absconding
citizen !
HOW
WILL SUCH COMPILATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA HELP ?
Ø
Any compromise / shortcut on such MASSIVE DATA COMPILATION
( before vaccination ), will render the entire
exercise infructuous ( costing Rs 50,000 crore, for the cost of vaccine +
billions of MAN-HOURS spent by 1370 million citizen and health workers ) !
Ø We
would fail to “ Reap the Full Benefit “ of the ECONOMIC COST incurred of this
ONE-TIME exercise, for PREVENTING
future virus outbreaks !
Ø I urge
Dr Harshvardhan , to ensure that the steering committees of ALL the States
follow ( without compromise ), ONLINE DATA COLLECTION FORMS , hosted on the
Central Server , as described at :
Ø
Everyone MUST use
:
Same FORM , hosted on same CENTRAL PORTAL , (using any device and
from anywhere )
=====================================================
( source : Rationing
of Covid Vaccine ? / 06 July 2020 )
Extract :
How to determine these
priorities, scientifically / un-biasedly , for 700 million people ?
No human
expert , no matter how intelligent , can process and co-relate ALL the data ,
quickly and continuously ( since data keeps changing all the time ) for the
following :
Ø Data about “ Persons already infected “ ……….. ( cured / died / under
treatment )
Ø Data about “ Persons not infected so far “………. ( and needing
vaccination
But,
if meticulously compiled and centrally processed ( with help of Artificial
Intelligence ), following data, compiled uniformly at source, could
determine those “ VACCINATION PRIORITIES “ :
[ A
] PERSONAL DATA
Ø Name / Birthdate ( for Age ) / Gendre / Contact Details / Aadhar
number
[ B
] LOCATION DATA
Ø Permanent Address / Current Address ( State – Jilla – City – locality ) /
Red Zone / Containment
[ C
] FAMILY DATA
Ø Details of Parents / Siblings
[ D
] HEALTH HISTORY
Ø Details of recent illnesses - morbidity / Medicines given ( including for
Covid treatment ) / Hospitals
Number of Doctor who treated
Ø Race / Religion / Language (
Mother tongue )
[ F
] EDUCATIONAL DATA
Ø Graduate – Under Graduate –
Illiterate etc
[ G
] EMPLOYMENT DATA
Ø Employed – Unemployed – Self
employed
[ H
] INCOME DATA
Ø Monthly Income (to determine
whether RICH–MIDDLE CLASS–POOR )
Why should we compile such data for all Indians ( suffering from
Covid or not ) ?
Quote from
:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/racial-data-transparency
As more data about the impact of the Covid-19
pandemic becomes available, it is increasingly clear that the disease is hitting the most
vulnerable and disadvantaged populations in the U.S. the hardest.
Although racial and ethnic information is currently
available for only about 35% of the total deaths in the U.S., even this limited
sample shows that Black Americans and other historically disadvantaged groups are experiencing
infection and death rates that are disproportionately high for their share of
the total population.
For example, while Black Americans represent only
about 13% of the population
in the states reporting racial/ethnic information, they account for about 34% of total Covid-19
deaths in those states. Asian Americans and Latinx Americans also show elevated
impacts in some regions.
==================================================
With regards,
Hemen Parekh / hcp@recruitGuru.com / 22 April
2021
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