Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Monday, 12 December 2016

Conundrum ? Chaos ? Catastrophe ? Cataclysm ?



With 32 days down , leaving only 18 to go ( from those 50 days in which Shri Narendra Modiji had envisaged a " Changed India " , and barely any sign of that change  ) , it is but natural that the concerned Ministries / Agencies / RBI / Public Sector Banks etc , are having a  PANIC ATTACK  !


SYMPTOMS of ATTACK :

*  Frequent extensions of deadlines for acceptance of OLD notes by various agencies

*  Making many services FREE from payments ( Govt to pick up the tab ? )

*  Making banks work on week-ends / holidays

*  Making Cash Distributing Agencies / Notes printing presses, to work around the clock

*  Ordering ONE BILLION  plastic notes of Rs 10 denominations

*  Appointing a Committee of Chief Ministers to suggest ways for going CASH LESS

*  Introducing prizes / awards for DIGITAL PAYMENTS , to panchayats

*  Conducting classes for educating Government Officers in DIGITAL PAYMENTS

*  Launching exclusive TV channel / Help Line for helping citizens to go digital

*  Launching ( perpetual ? ) AMNESTY SCHEME in the guise of IT Act Amendments

*  Planning " Tax Incentives " for Buyers making DIGITAL PAYMENTS

*  Planning " Incentives " for Merchants accepting digital payments

*  Considering introduction of " Jan Dhan Yojana " like scheme for users in Rural / Semi
   Urban areas , who use Credit / Debit cards

*  Government ordering TEN LAKH Card Swipe machines for delivery in 100 days

*  NABARD ordering TWO LAKH , Point of Use machines ( for Rs 6,000 each ), for giving
   FREE , for use by 2 shops , in one lakh towns of 10,000 people or less

*  Offering tiny discounts on purchase of petrol / diesel / Life Insurance etc

*  Offering Credit / Debit cards to farmers for buying seeds / fertilizers etc

*  Imposing limits on weekly withdrawals of cash from Jan Dhan accounts


By no means , this is a comprehensive list

And be rest assured that there will be 18 new / additional announcements in the remaining 18 days !


WAS  ALL  OF  THESE  AVOIDABLE  ?

May be not ALL,  but certainly MOST what is causing hardships to common man , was avoidable


IS  A  ROLL  BACK   POSSIBLE  ?

Short answer :  NO

Long answer  :  You just cannot " Unscramble , a scrambled Egg " !


WILL  ALL OF  THIS  SUFFERING  ELIMINATE CORRUPTION ?

Yesterday , I heard of the seemingly strange case of an IT officer " offering " bribe to a businessman , instead of " demanding " it !

He told this businessman :

" I will OK your tax return without disallowing any expenses , if you give me ONE new note of Rs 2000 / - in return for ACCEPTING my 5 OLD notes of Rs 500 each , and obliging me "

May be this " innovation " was not envisaged by the authors of Demonetization !

Already , raids by ED all over the country, are finding hoards of NEW notes of Rs 2000 , which are slimmer / lighter and easier to carry ! Soon, it will be " back to square one " !


IS   IT  TOO  LATE  TO  SALVAGE  THE  SITUATION ?

No !

In our population of 1300 million , may be 1.3 million had huge amounts of unaccounted / untaxed cash in Rs 500 / 1000 notes, totally disproportionate to their known sources of income - and hidden in home cabinets or bank lockers .


For the rest, those few high denomination notes were strictly " in proportion " to their known sources of income . There was no need to harass these people , in order to locate those few / hidden / huge bundles of illegal cash


But sudden / abrupt " demonetization " caused just that harassment !


All that was required was a slow / gradual " replacement " of OLD notes with NEW notes , over an overlap period of 6 months - except that those NEW notes would be embedded with RFID chips !


Ordinary / honest / tax-paying / law abiding citizens would not have even raised an eye-brow with such a technological " intervention "


If anything , they would have welcomed it since that would have allowed them to continue buying their vegetables / groceries / bus tickets , without having to queue up in front of ATM machines !


It is still possible, not merely to " salvage " this " operation gone bad ", but permanently eliminate the twin menaces of CORRUPTION and BLACK MONEY generation, by embedding high denomination currency notes , with RFID micro-sensors !


I have sent my proposal ( Embracethe Inevitable ), to NDA Ministers / Secretaries , on 13 Nov 2016

 { myblogepage.blogspot.in/2016/11/embrace-inevitable.html   }


I am sure our Policy Makers are not so naive as to believe that human greed can be wished away by a " dictate " !


Neither Communism , nor Socialism , nor Capitalism has ever succeeded in conquering greed , anywhere in the World .


Did they really believe that those 1.3 million BLACK MONEY holders will come forward and declare their ill-gotten wealth , through persuasion ?


And , did they really believe that , even if they did so NOW ( to escape jail ) , they will not start , all over again , as soon as sufficient numbers of Rs 2,000 notes became available ?


For an answer  , do read... " Fearworks better than Persuasion " ( 10 Oct 2016 ) , 

{  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/10/fear-works-better-than-persuation.html }


Implementing my suggestion at this stage , cannot erase / reverse, the hardships suffered by common men - and the damage inflicted on the economy ,

BUT

It will ensure that ,

*  The country stops sinking into what is turning out to be an ECONOMIC QUICK SAND

*  Shri Modi is able to restore the CONFIDENCE that poor Indians have placed in him

*  BJP does not lose those 5 State Elections coming up in the next 12 months

CORRUPTION / BLACK MONEY , are permanently eliminated !


If  Caesar  chooses to ignore this " Beware of the Ides of March " , the ominous writing is on the Wall !


Time is running out !


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13  Dec  2016

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

  










Saturday, 10 December 2016

Good Policy : Devil is in Details !



Hindustan Times ( 07 Dec 2016 ) carries following news reports :

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Developers will get to run townships for 10 years "

[  Developers building PRIVATE TOWNSHIPS on 100 acres of land or more in state will be allowed to build and look after infrastructure — internal roads, water supply, electricity distribution and local transport — for the first 10 years, after which its governance will be handed over to a civic body.

Under its Special Township Policy for Integrated Development, the state has decided to grant permission to build private townships on at least 100 acres of land. The developers, however, will have to build the townships following norms of the Centre’s smart cities project.

The government has also made it mandatory for the developers to provide 20% of the built-up area for affordable housing, including 5% for rental housing. ]
                                     -------------------------------------
" A Year on, Maha State govt's towering ' housing for all ' claims fall flat "

[  Not even a single tenement is ready or even close to completion , against an ambitious deadline to create 19 lakh affordable houses by 2022

Even the number of houses sanctioned on paper is a far cry from the 2.71 lakh houses the government needs to approve and build under the scheme EVERY YEAR , to meet its stated aim of 19 lakh units in 7 years ]

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Congratulations , Shri Ravindra Waikar-ji , on this pioneering initiative which, finally holds out hope for a " roof over the heads " , for millions of middle class citizens

But , in the past , many good-intentioned policies have floundered during implementation for want of clearly spelt-out DETAILS

In this regard , I request you to consider incorporating in the policy , my following suggestions , sent to you last year ( 01 Sept 2015 ) :

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DREAM HOUSE BY 2020 ?


Shri Ravindra Waikar , Minister for Housing , Maharashtra Government , says ( DNA / 16 Aug 2015 ) :

"  We want to provide a dream house to everyone by 2020 . We won't compromise on the quality of construction . It will be at par with that of private builders . We are working on a mission mode "

He is referring to planned construction of  5 lakh " affordable " houses ( flats ? ) , by 2020

No doubt , this is a very daunting task but it is possible if there is " Political Will " - which is evident from above statement of Shri Waikar

Here are my few suggestions that Shri Waikar may want to consider :

#   SPECIFICATIONS

     *  Carpet Area = 400 sq ft

     *  Selling Price = Rs 10 lakhs ( Rs 2,500 / sq ft )

#   LOCATIONS

     *  Building Clusters to be located on the outskirts of cities ( important )

     *  100 Clusters of 50 buildings ( each with 10 floors*10 flats/floor )

#   LEGAL FRAME-WORK

     *  A Special Purpose Vehicle ( SPV ) , named,

        Dream House Private Limited ( DHPL )

#   INDUSTRY STATUS

     *  Infrastructure Industry with 100 % FDI thru automatic route

#   SPV OWNERSHIP

      *   10 % equity by Maha Govt ( in lieu of land )

           Maha Govt to pass on this equity to land-owners

      *   90 % equity by WinSun Decoration Design Engineering Co ( China )

#   SHARE  CAPITAL

      *   Rs 10,000 Crores

#    ROLE OF MAHARASHTRA GOVERNMENT

      *  Acquire land ( under modified Land Acquisition Act ) / hand over to SPV

      *  Comprehensive Town Planning of each Cluster like a Smart City

      *  Building Design / Drawings / Material Specs

      *  Quality Control / Material Testing Lab at each site

      *  A Project Monitoring Team at each site / Use of PERT

      *  Site surveillance using CCTV cameras

      *  Make available land for setting up 3D House Printing factories

      *  Interconnection of site offices with HQ , thru VPN

      *  Blanket permissions ( IOD / NOC etc ) issued in advance

      *  OC based on certification from Site Project Manager

      *  Maintenance of flats thru Coop Societies of each cluster


#   COMMERCIALS

     *   Neither SPV , nor Maha Govt to pay any royalty to WinSun for 
          transfer of technology

     *   Maha Govt to act as the agency for allotment of flats to eligible public 
          in Maharashtra thru a " Lottery System "

     *   Selling Price of flats will be fixed by the Maharashtra Government 
         once a year , based on a pre-agreed cost - escalation formula, which
         will be explained in detail on SPV web site

         Calculation of each upward revision shall be made public

   *   SPV to hand over possession of flat to the allotee upon receipt of 
        full payment

   *   SPV shall not be permitted direct selling of any flat in Maharashtra

   *   SPV would be free to set up factories in other States and be free to
        sell flats built there, thru Open Market Sale


#   ROLE  OF  WinSun

     *  Setting up of 20 factories for 3D Printing of flats

     *  Assembling of 3D printed flats at sites

     *  Transfer of 3D house printing technology to Indian project managers / 
         site engineers / construction workers


#   TECHNOLOGY

     *  3D ( house ) Printing Technology developed / patented by WinSun

*    WHY  WinSun  ?

 #   On 29 March 2014 , WinSun constructed TEN , 3D printed houses ( 200 sq meter each ) in Shanghai, each
      costing $ 4,800 ( approx Rs 3 lakh ! )

#    On 17 July 2015 , using its 3D printing technology , WinSun built a 2 storey villa , in just 3 HOURS  !

#    WinSun holds 98 patents for construction materials

#    For 3D printing of houses , WinSun , mostly uses recycled construction materials

#    3D house-printing technology saves,

      *  30% -60 % of building materials

      *  70 % of production time

      *  80 %  of construction cost


#   Egypt Government has placed on WinSun , an order for supplying 20,000 pre-fabricated , 3D printed houses

#   In Egypt , WinSun will establish 12 Dream Factories ( to build pre-fabricated houses ) , within 2 years

     These factories will mostly use desert sand as its main construction material , which was found ideal for 3D
    printing of houses !


#   In next 3 years , WinSun will set up ( in JV with local parties ) , similar factories in 20 countries , including
    Saudi Arabia , UAE , Qatar , Mexico , S. Korea , Russia , Morocco , Tunisia , and USA
       
As someone has said :

" It is OK to build castles in the air , as long as you know how to put foundation underneath , later on "

Even if you are dreaming of building 5 lakh castles !

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11  Dec  2016

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs




Friday, 9 December 2016

An Unprecedented Budget Reform


 
Business Line ( 07 Dec 2016 ) carries a news report titled :

" Outcome Budget norms tightened ; Deadlines will be set to meet Objectives "
It goes on to read :

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[ " In order to improve the quality of public expenditure, the Finance Ministry has tightened norms under which each ministry and department will have to prepare an Outcome Budget in consultation with NITI Aayog to achieve certain  OBJECTIVES  within a TIME FRAME .

As per the Ministry’s directions, every ministry will have to prepare an Outcome Budget statement linking outlays against each scheme as well as project with the DELIVERABLES  and medium term OUTCOMES .

A Finance Ministry official, involved in Budget making, said every “allocation for scheme/project will be against a firm set of DELIVERABLES  which will need to be adhered to”.

The ‘Outcome Budget’ is to be prepared after finalisation of the estimates for budgetary allocation, the official added.

“The OUTPUTS / DELIVERABLES should be mandatorily given in  MEASURABLE / QUANTITATIVE terms on the basis of parameters and deliverables DECIDED IN ADVANCE in consultation with Department of Expenditure and NITI Aayog,” the official said.

Through “outcome-based budgeting”, the Ministry is trying to shift from traditional performance-based budgeting by planning expenditure, fixing appropriate TARGETS and QUANTIFYING DELIVERABLES of each scheme.

The outcome-based one will outline what can be achieved with what is being spent and will involve the process of defining the desired long-term outcome of schemes of various ministries. " ]
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This is yet another example of NDA government listening to suggestions of ordinary citizens . and implementing the same , if found useful


Two years ago , on  05 Dec 2014 , I sent following suggestion to Shri Arun Jaitley-ji  ( and sent it , once again before last Union Budget ) :


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BUDGETING     BY    OBJECTIVES



Dear Shri Jaitley ,


Come Feb 2015 and you will present your Budget in Lok Sabha

You will allocate thousands of crores of rupees to different ministries , for spending during 2015-16

You may even increase / decrease their allocations based on , to what extent ( % ) did they manage to actually " spend " their current year's allocations

The one and only emphasis is on " spending " !


As usual , no MP will ask :


But , what exactly did the Minister concerned achieve by spending this money  ?

What physical / measureable targets did the Minister succeed in reaching / exceeding , with that money  ?  Where / What are the OUTPUTS  ?

Why is it that no targets were set in advance , before the start of the year ?

How come , Minister was allowed to shoot first and then draw concentric circles around the hole afterwards ( at the end of the year ) , to claim BULL'S EYE  ?  "



In private sector , shareholders / bankers do not hesitate to sack the CMD / MD / CEO , if he fails to deliver on promised profit


Then , why are Ministers allowed to retain their posts ( - or even get kicked upstairs ! ), despite failing to deliver  ?



Dear Shri Jaitley :


MPs should know that YOU cannot answer these questions , simply because , at the time of the Budget Exercise , no physical OUTPUTS  got fixed for each Minister


What did get fixed , were only EXPENDITURE TARGETS  !


Simply because MPs passed the Budget without fixing targets such as following for 31 March 2015 :


*  FINANCE  MINISTER

   *   GDP ..... 6 % ............ [ 10 % improvement ]

   *   CAD.......( -  ) 5 % .....[ 20 % improvement ]



*  COMMERCE  MINISTER

   *   Exports........ $ 350 Billion  ....  [ 10 % improvement  ]

   *   FDI..............$    50 Billion...... [  20 % improvement  ]



*   RAILWAY   MINISTER

    *   Lengths of Tracks...... 125,000 Km.....      [  Up by 10 %  ]

    *   No of Passenger Trains / day..... 10,000... [ Up by 10 % ]



*   HEALTH   MINISTER

   *   Chronic Hunger and Hunger Related Deaths
         8 Million / year .................................... [  Down by 20 %  ]

   *   Under-nourished people..... 200 million..... [ Down by 10 % ]



*   SOCIAL   WELFARE   MINISTER

    *    Dowery Deaths / year....... 8,000...... ...... [  Down by 10 %  ]

    *    People without Toilets........ 500 Million....  [  Down by  20 % ]



*   AGRICULTURE   MINISTER

    *    Farmers Suicide/ year..... .. 14,000...............  [ Down by 20 %  ]

    *    Food Grain rotting / year..... 5 Million tons.....  [ Down by 20 %   ]



So on and so forth for each Minister


Some Caution / Suggestions :


*    Ignore the numbers given above. I could be factually wrong

*    Focus on the concept of " Management by Objectives "

*    Overcome the fear of " failure to meet the targets ".

*    Overcome the fear of " being ridiculed " ! 

*    Don't chop off the neck that dares to stick out  !

*    Only failure is , not fixing the targets  ! 

*    Actual vs Targeted achievements must be measured , on an ongoing 
      basis , by totally independent THIRD PARTY agencies

      Ministers / Finance Minister and these Agencies , must agree in advance , how the 
      Agencies will go about " measuring " the Actual Achievements

      The method of measurement must be transparent and well publicized
      in advance

      Agencies shall have no role in fixing of Annual Targets

      That is best done by the Prime Minister - the CEO , MakeInIndia


*    There must be at least 10 performance parameters for each Minister

*    Parameters themselves could be selected / prioritized , based on an
      ONLINE PUBLIC SURVEY / OPINION POLL , from Govt web site

*    If conducting such an ONLINE POLL for the forthcoming budget is
      too late , same could be done on a printed form , by current MPs /
      MLAs / Rajya Sabha Members

*    Results of the SURVEY / POLL , must be published


I hope readers of this blog will contribute by passing on this message to

*    all of their friends / relatives / acquaintances / colleagues

*    as many legislators whose email IDs they can find 

*    to Shri Jaitley ( ajaitley@sansad.nic.in  /  ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in )

*    Everyone in their CONTACT list


OR,

*   request them to look it up on...BUDGETING  BY OBJECTIVES 



Somehow , we must bring pressure on Lok Sabha Members , NOT to approve the forthcoming budget , unless TARGETS are set in advance

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My fellow Countrymen ( - and women ) :

If you persevere with your suggestions - and never give up - , you will be heard
But , if you give up , you will have only yourself to blame !

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10  Dec  2016


www.hemenparekh.in / blogs