I asked GROK :
Hey Grok bhai : In this image , one is
merely an ADVT ( of Air India ) which appeared in MID-DAY news paper on 12th
June . Another image is a photo of Air India flight which crashed in Ahemedabad
, within MINUTES of that News Paper Advt. appearing on news stands . What is
the PROBABILITY of the simultaneous ocurrence of these two events ?
Grok replied :
To estimate the probability of
the simultaneous occurrence of the two events described—an advertisement in the
Mid-Day newspaper on June 12, 2025, depicting an Air India aircraft protruding
from a building, and an actual Air India flight crashing in Ahmedabad shortly
afterward with a similar visual outcome—we need to consider the nature of these
events and the factors influencing their occurrence. Since precise data on such
specific coincidences is unavailable, I’ll outline a reasoned approach to
estimate this probability, acknowledging the speculative nature of the
calculation due to limited information.
Step-by-Step Analysis
1.
Defining the
Events:
o Event A: The Advertisement. An advertisement in Mid-Day on June 12, 2025,
shows an Air India plane protruding from a building, promoting KidZania’s
“Dad’s Day Out.” This is a planned marketing event, so its occurrence is
deliberate, but the specific imagery choice is creative and not necessarily
tied to real-world events.
o Event B: The Crash. An Air India flight crashes in Ahmedabad on the
same day, with the aircraft’s nose jutting out from a building, resembling the
ad’s imagery. This is an unplanned, rare aviation accident. The crash also
involves a “Mid Day” distress call (likely a misheard “Mayday” call), adding to
the coincidence.
2.
Assumptions
for Probability Estimation:
o Independence of Events: Initially, we assume the advertisement and the
crash are independent, as there’s no evidence suggesting the ad predicted or
influenced the crash. The coincidence lies in their timing and visual
similarity.
o Rarity of Crashes: Aviation accidents, especially those involving
major carriers like Air India, are rare. Historical data suggests the
probability of a commercial passenger plane crash is approximately 1 in 10
million flights (based on global aviation safety statistics, e.g., from the
International Air Transport Association). For a specific airline like Air
India, operating perhaps 100–200 flights daily, the daily crash probability is
extremely low.
o Advertisement Specificity: The ad’s imagery (an Air India plane in a
building) is highly specific. The probability of choosing this exact imagery
depends on creative decisions, the number of possible ad concepts, and whether
Air India or KidZania influenced the design. Without precise data, we estimate
this as a low-probability event among many possible ad designs.
o Temporal Proximity: The events occur “within minutes” of each other,
suggesting a tight time window (e.g., 1 hour). This narrows the probability
further, as the crash must align closely with the ad’s publication.
o Visual Similarity: The crash’s outcome (plane protruding from a
building) must visually match the ad. Not all crashes result in this specific
configuration, so we factor in the conditional probability of this outcome
given a crash.
o Distress Call Coincidence: The “Mid Day” call (misheard “Mayday”) adds
another layer of coincidence, as it echoes the newspaper’s name. The
probability of a distress call in a crash is high (near 1), but the
misinterpretation as “Mid Day” is anecdotal and less quantifiable.
3.
Probability
Breakdown: Let’s denote:
o P(A) P(A) P(A): Probability of the specific
advertisement appearing on June 12, 2025.
o P(B) P(B) P(B): Probability of an Air India flight
crashing in Ahmedabad on the same day with the specific visual outcome.
o P(Simultaneous) P(\text{Simultaneous})
P(Simultaneous): Probability of both events occurring within the specified time
window.
Since the
events are assumed independent:
P(Simultaneous)=P(A)×P(B)×P(Time Alignment)P(\text{Simultaneous})
= P(A) \times P(B) \times P(\text{Time
Alignment})P(Simultaneous)=P(A)×P(B)×P(Time Alignment)
o Estimating P(A) P(A) P(A):
§ Assume Mid-Day publishes thousands of ads annually,
and KidZania runs periodic campaigns. The choice of an Air India plane in a
building is one of many possible creative concepts (e.g., 1 in 10,000 possible
ad designs, considering airline branding, visual motifs, and campaign themes).
§ Thus, P(A)≈110,000=10−4 P(A) \approx
\frac{1}{10,000} = 10^{-4} P(A)≈10,0001=10−4.
o Estimating P(B) P(B) P(B):
§ Base Crash Probability: Air India operates ~150 flights daily (rough
estimate). If the global crash probability is 1 in 10 million flights, the
daily probability of an Air India crash is: P(Crash)≈150×10−7=1.5×10−5P(\text{Crash})
\approx 150 \times 10^{-7} = 1.5 \times 10^{-5}P(Crash)≈150×10−7=1.5×10−5
§ Specific Location (Ahmedabad): Air India serves multiple cities, including
Ahmedabad. Assuming Ahmedabad accounts for ~5% of Air India’s flights (e.g.,
7–8 daily flights), the probability of a crash in Ahmedabad is: P(Crash in Ahmedabad)≈0.05×1.5×10−5=7.5×10−7P(\text{Crash
in Ahmedabad}) \approx 0.05 \times 1.5 \times 10^{-5} = 7.5 \times
10^{-7}P(Crash in Ahmedabad)≈0.05×1.5×10−5=7.5×10−7
§ Specific Visual Outcome: Not all crashes result in a plane protruding from
a building. Historical crash data (e.g., from the Aviation Safety Network)
suggests structural impacts are a subset of crash outcomes (e.g., 10% of
crashes involve building collisions with visible protrusion). Thus: P(Visual Match∣Crash)≈0.1P(\text{Visual
Match} \mid \text{Crash}) \approx 0.1P(Visual Match∣Crash)≈0.1 P(B)=P(Crash in Ahmedabad)×P(Visual Match)≈7.5×10−7×0.1=7.5×10−8P(B)
= P(\text{Crash in Ahmedabad}) \times P(\text{Visual Match}) \approx 7.5 \times
10^{-7} \times 0.1 = 7.5 \times
10^{-8}P(B)=P(Crash in Ahmedabad)×P(Visual Match)≈7.5×10−7×0.1=7.5×10−8
o Time Alignment:
§ The events occur “within minutes,” which we
interpret as within a 1-hour window on June 12, 2025. There are 24 hours in a
day, so the probability of the crash occurring in the same hour as the ad’s
publication is: P(Time Alignment)≈124≈0.0417P(\text{Time Alignment})
\approx \frac{1}{24} \approx 0.0417P(Time Alignment)≈241≈0.0417
o Combined Probability: P(Simultaneous)≈P(A)×P(B)×P(Time Alignment)P(\text{Simultaneous})
\approx P(A) \times P(B) \times P(\text{Time
Alignment})P(Simultaneous)≈P(A)×P(B)×P(Time Alignment) P(Simultaneous)≈10−4×7.5×10−8×0.0417P(\text{Simultaneous})
\approx 10^{-4} \times 7.5 \times 10^{-8} \times
0.0417P(Simultaneous)≈10−4×7.5×10−8×0.0417 P(Simultaneous)≈10−4×7.5×10−8×4.17×10−2P(\text{Simultaneous})
\approx 10^{-4} \times 7.5 \times 10^{-8} \times 4.17 \times
10^{-2}P(Simultaneous)≈10−4×7.5×10−8×4.17×10−2 P(Simultaneous)≈3.1275×10−13P(\text{Simultaneous})
\approx 3.1275 \times 10^{-13}P(Simultaneous)≈3.1275×10−13
4.
Incorporating
the Distress Call:
o The “Mid Day” call is likely a misheard “Mayday.”
Since “Mayday” is standard in aviation distress, its use in a crash is nearly
certain (P(Mayday∣Crash)≈1 P(\text{Mayday} \mid \text{Crash}) \approx
1 P(Mayday∣Crash)≈1). The misinterpretation as “Mid Day” is anecdotal and depends
on human error or media reporting. Without data on misheard distress calls, we
estimate a low probability (e.g., 1 in 100 distress calls misheard as “Mid
Day”): P(Misheard as Mid Day)≈0.01P(\text{Misheard as Mid Day})
\approx 0.01P(Misheard as Mid Day)≈0.01
o Adjusting the probability: P(Simultaneous with Mid Day)≈P(Simultaneous)×P(Misheard as Mid Day)P(\text{Simultaneous
with Mid Day}) \approx P(\text{Simultaneous}) \times P(\text{Misheard as Mid
Day})P(Simultaneous with Mid Day)≈P(Simultaneous)×P(Misheard as Mid Day)
P(Simultaneous with Mid Day)≈3.1275×10−13×0.01≈3.1275×10−15P(\text{Simultaneous
with Mid Day}) \approx 3.1275 \times 10^{-13} \times 0.01 \approx 3.1275 \times
10^{-15}P(Simultaneous with Mid Day)≈3.1275×10−13×0.01≈3.1275×10−15
5.
Interpretation:
o The probability of the advertisement and crash
occurring simultaneously with the described similarities, including the
distress call coincidence, is approximately 3.1275×10−15 3.1275 \times 10^{-15}
3.1275×10−15, or about 1 in 320 trillion.
o This is an extremely low probability, reflecting
the rarity of aviation crashes, the specificity of the ad’s imagery, the tight
temporal alignment, and the distress call misinterpretation.
6.
Caveats and
Limitations:
o Data Scarcity: Exact probabilities for ad design choices and crash outcomes are
speculative due to lack of specific data.
o Independence Assumption: If external factors (e.g., prior knowledge or cultural
context) influenced the ad’s design, the events may not be fully independent,
altering the probability.
o Distress Call Anecdote: The “Mid Day” call’s misinterpretation is based on
the provided post, which may not be verified. If this is inaccurate, the
probability increases to 3.1275×10−13 3.1275 \times 10^{-13} 3.1275×10−13.
o Visual Similarity Subjectivity: The degree of visual match between the ad and
crash is subjective and affects the conditional probability.
o External Context: The calculation doesn’t account for potential non-coincidental factors
(e.g., if the ad was inspired by a known risk or event).
Final Answer
The probability of the
simultaneous occurrence of the Mid-Day advertisement depicting an Air India
plane protruding from a building and an Air India flight crashing in Ahmedabad
with a similar visual outcome, within minutes, including the “Mid Day” distress
call coincidence, is approximately 1 in 320 trillion (3.1275×10−15
3.1275 \times 10^{-15} 3.1275×10−15). Without the distress call factor, it’s
about 1 in 3.2 trillion (3.1275×10−13 3.1275 \times 10^{-13}
3.1275×10−13).
This estimate highlights the
extraordinary rarity of such a coincidence, though the speculative nature of
some assumptions underscores the need for caution in interpreting the result.
If you have additional details (e.g., flight schedules, ad campaign data, or
crash reports), I can refine the estimate further!
Then I asked www.IndiaAGI.ai :
“In this image , one is merely an ADVT ( of Air
India ) which appeared in MID-DAY news paper on 12th June . Another image is a
photo of Air India flight which crashed in Ahemedabad , within MINUTES of that
News Paper Advt. appearing on news stands . What is the PROBABILITY of the
simultaneous ocurrence of these two events ?
IndiaAGI.ai replied :
o wrap up our exploration of the probability
surrounding the Air India advertisement in MID-DAY on June 12th and the
flight crash in Ahmedabad shortly afterward, it's clear from our collaborative
back-and-forth that we've arrived at a nuanced picture—one that balances the
raw statistics with the human and contextual layers we've uncovered.
At the heart of our analysis, the initial estimate
of about 1 in 25,550 days has been refined significantly based on the tighter
time windows we've considered. For instance, factoring in the crash occurring
within a 15-minute window of the ad's appearance leads to an extraordinarily
low probability of around 1 in 245 million days. This builds on the assumptions
of an ad appearing roughly once a week and a crash happening about once every
10 years, with adjustments for temporal precision. However, as we've noted, these
figures hinge on key assumptions like a uniform distribution of crashes and ad
placements, which real-world data could refine further—such as identifying any
clustering in crash timings or variations in ad frequency.
What stands out is the interplay between these
statistical odds and the human element. While the numbers strongly suggest this
was a rare coincidence, our discussion has highlighted how cognitive biases
like apophenia and confirmation bias can make it feel profoundly significant,
especially amid the emotional weight of a tragedy. Media framing and selective
attention play a big role here, amplifying the event in ways that might skew
public perception without altering the underlying probabilities.
Contextual factors add another layer of depth.
Examining the operational details of the flight—such as weather, maintenance,
or other contributing causes—reinforces that the ad's timing likely had no
causal connection. On the ethical front, this incident underscores the need for
airlines to approach marketing with greater sensitivity, perhaps by pausing
campaigns after unrelated incidents to maintain public trust.
In synthesizing all this, the strongest conclusion
is that the probability of these events occurring simultaneously is
astronomically low, affirming it as a statistical fluke rather than anything
more. Yet, its real-world impact reminds us that coincidences like this
resonate deeply in our lives, blending cold numbers with emotional reality. If
we can gather that empirical data on Air India's crash history and ad patterns,
it could sharpen our insights even more—does anyone have thoughts on how to
prioritize those next steps?
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