A Chatbot to drive away Blues ?

A few days back , I saw an info-graphic in DNA with title :

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Your Next Doctor may well be a BOT

Following was an example that got cited :

 US's WoeBot Labs debuted on FB Messenger , a Chatbot offering " cognitive behavioral therapy " , for people wary of the stigma of seeking mental healthcare 

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Apparently , I was not far off in imagining a such a bot in :

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Sunday, 24 July 2016

Share - Your - Soul / Outsourcing Unlimited

Business Line ( 23  July , 2016 ) carried an interesting report re mushrooming of " Rent-a-Friend " services in Japan, where you can " rent " ( on hourly basis ) , a fake friend , a family member or a companion for various occasions

One Nashimoto even " rents " himself out for " conversation " to 30 / 40 clients a month ( 70 % women ), for $ 10 per hour . He has an online service .

All kinds of people ( young and old / rich and not-so-rich ), engage him for reasons ranging from,

*  lack of family support / keeping company ( physically or online )

*  social isolation / detachment from society

*  desire to speak out freely without inhibitions

*  advice on dealing with bosses..........etc

Now , online space is overflowing with some genuine ( and some , otherwise ) , " Escort Services " in many countries ( including , in India ) , which are very expensive

And for every rich person in need of such an escort service , there are a hundred , not-so-rich and needy persons , who just need someone online , from time to time , to pour out their hearts !

I believe , thousands of educated / unemployed Indians are well placed to render such " Listening " services to needy persons all around the World , remotely , using Skype / FaceTime

Here is an outline of my suggestion , re how young / educated / unemployed Indians can offer such service :

#  VEHICLE

    This strictly " Online " service will have a platform called ,  www...COUCH...com  ( supported by a Mobile App )

#  USERS

    There will be two kinds of users who will register on this site , viz:

    *  " Talkers " , who want to engage someone who will listen to them / sympathize with them

    *  " Listeners " , who will  listen patiently / ask occasional question / offer advice - sympathy - empathy

#  REGISTRATION FORM

For both type of users , the Registration Form will require to submit following details :

*  Personal Details ( Name / DOB / Gender / Nationality / Bank Account No /  Photo / Short Video etc )

*  Family Details  ( Who are members of immediate family ? )

*  Contact Details ( Address / Mobile No / Email ID / Skype - FaceTime ID / WatsApp..etc )

*  Social Media Footprint  ( Facebook / LinkedIn / Twitter : No of Friends - Contacts - Connections - Followers )

*  Cultural Exposure ( Countries visited / lived-in , with stay-periods / Foreign friends )

*  Educational Details ( Degrees / Colleges ) . Listeners having degree in Psychology will get ranked higher !

*  Language Details ( Languages spoken / fluently - reasonably well )

*  Experience Details ( Where worked / for how long ) . Retired / Worldly Wise , Listeners get ranked higher !

*  Availability Details ( Available from - to / GMT- Local time )

Based on the completeness of the Registration Form Details , a software will rate and rank the Listeners , which will

 be visible to the Talkers

There will be facility to update / edit the data submitted

Upon registration , users will be assigned USER ID and PASSWORD

In addition , Listener will be assigned a unique COUCH / INTERVIEW-CABIN number

#  SEARCHING DATABASE OF LISTENERS

    Talkers will be able to search the database of the registered Listeners , except for their " Contact Details "

    Talkers can , then select / shortlist , a few listeners of their preference

#  SERVICE CHARGE

    Talkers will pay $ 2 per hour to the portal , which will credit this amount to the Bank Account of the concerned

    Listener , after deducting 10 % as its own commission

#  PAYMENT MECHANISM

    Using online payment gateway , Talkers will deposit a minimum of $ 20 , on the portal as PRE-PAID amount

    As Talker continues using the service , credit balance will get displayed ( in $ and in " Hours " terms )

    There will be facility for online ( or through Mobile ) re-charging of the account

#  PROCESS

    A Listener can login anytime and occupy his own virtual COUCH / CABIN ( " I am now available for listening " )

    As soon as he does , a GREEN light will shine on the CABIN , showing the online availability of the concerned

    Listener . 

This green light will tell the Talkers : " Welcome ! I am ready to listen "

    The light will turn RED , as soon as a Talker walks into Listener's CABIN ( " I am engaged right now " )

    Any time a Talker logs in , he will find if any Listeners ( that he had previously shortlisted ) are available online

    If he finds one , he simply CLICKS on the CABIN icon and enters that VIRTUAL cabin !

    Simultaneously , both the Talker and the Listener , turn on their Skype ( on Mobile or Tablet ) to start the talk

    Remember , Skype ID of neither the Talker , nor the Listener , is ever visible to each other !

    All conversation / transaction , can ONLY take place through www...COUCH...com ( no bypassing ! )

    The entire conversation will get recorded ( Video + Audio ) and can be downloaded by the Talker ( but not by

    the Listener ) , if he so desires

   Portal will be obliged to make this recording available to a Court of Law , in case of any litigation

   Portal will carry a WARNING that it reserves the right to remove any Talker or a Listener , if it finds that its

  service is being misused / abused ( will need defining , in detail )

#  REPUTATION SYSTEM

    At the end of each " talk / conversation " ,  Talker will be obliged to " Rate " the concerned Listener

    on a 5 point scale ( Excellent > Horrible ) . 

Cumulative / Average " Rating " will be prominently

   displayed for guidance of all Talkers . 

Of course , a Listener can see his own rating as soon as he logs in

   At some future date , it should be possible ( through appropriate software ) , to introduce following variations in

   pricing of the service ( ie ; Hourly Rates ) :

   *  Surge Pricing ( depending upon the DEMAND  of any given Listener ) ie: No of Talkers waiting for a given

       Listener at a given point of time

   *  Reputation Pricing , based on points accumulated by a given Listener from all past ratings

#  USAGE  HISTORY

    For each user ( Listener or Talker ) , there will be a Usage History page of all the past transactions / talks ; as

    also Credit Balance ( for the Talker ) and the Earnings ( for the Listener )

#  PRIVACY

    The portal will NOT reveal any info / data ( including Audio-Video recording ) of any user to anyone else.

    However , portal will reserve the rights to subject those Audio recordings ( but not Video recordings ) to

    an Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) software , which can , over a course of time , come up with a SOFTWARE ROBOT

    that can take over the role of the HUMAN listeners !  If you have any doubts , ask Ray Kurzweil  !

    When that happens , this portal may morph into a PPO ( Psychology Process Outsourcing ) !

    The portal will also reserve the rights to use the Audio recordings for offering Voice-to-Voice language

     translation mobile app for the benefit of world-travelers

 #  PROMOTING  THE  SERVICE

     To an extent , the portal may affect the jobs of local Psychologists / Psycho-Analysts who offer low level

     consulting in any country. They will be in danger of being " Bangalored " ! So , it is bound to face resistance

     from those vested / threatened interests !

     But foreign Hospitals / Educational Institutions / NGOs / Medical Colleges , etc could be targeted for promoting

#  BUSINESS  MODEL

    Business Model will be in the nature of " Sharing Economy " , where those owning / possessing " Idle / Spare /

    Under-utilized " assets / resources , will offer the same to those in need / when in need , for a price

    Eg:

    Millions of private car-owners use their cars for ( may be ) two hours per day . Uber aggregates this spare

    capacity and makes it available to travelers who do not own ( or wish to own ) their own cars

    Both parties benefit . Economy also benefits by fuller utilization of the spare/surplus capacities of millions of

    assets

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23  June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

How to Rank Resumes ?

In an email to Prof Rahul Deshmukh ( IIT – Mumbai ) , I had suggested following approach :

Feb 18 , 2013

Dear Team

Google calls it PageRank – to decide the importance of a web page – then use this number to decide the rank ( position ) of that page within the search results

Let us follow Google ( very safe ! )

And call our “ Ranking Mechanism “ of any given resume , a “ Pa-Rank “

Then arrange all arriving resumes ( in the mailbox of a Recruiter or on our web site ), in the descending order of their Pa-Rank

Highest ranked at the top

So , the Recruiter need to open / read only the top 5 - 7  !  No  more  !

In much the same manner that 95% of the searchers never go beyond the first 3 pages of any search-result despite millions of pages

Just imagine how much time it will save the recruiters to zero-in on the best candidates from amongst hundreds applying for any given job

This has the potential to revolutionize the On-line recruitment industry !

How can we determine a candidate’s Pa-Rank ?

Just like PageRank , which takes into account,

#   No of Incoming links to a given page

#   Importance of each incoming link ( based on its own incoming links )

No doubt , Google’s actual algorithm must be very complex – and continues to evolve

Thru our mobile app , “ Resume Blaster “ ( and someday , thru app “ My Jobs “ as well ), we pick-up the “ Contact List “ ( of mobile nos ) of say, Ajay ( a user registered on our site )

These are his “ Primary Incoming Links “ – say , 40

Out of these 40 , say , 10 have also registered on our site AND , are also using our mobile app “ Resume Blaster “

In turn , these 10 have , between them , 600 contacts ( “ Secondary Incoming Links “ )

So , for Ajay , total Incoming links =  40+600 =  640

Now , if Ajay thinks he has figured out how our software computes Pa-Rank then he will somehow find out the mobile number of Mukesh Ambani , and add into his “ Contacts “ – assuming that at one stroke ,he can add ONE MILLION incoming links to himself !

But , we know that such high-flying executives are unlikely to have registered on our site – much less , to be using our app , “ Resume Blaster “ !

Hence we treat this as a “ Dead Incoming Link “

On top of that , we can further refine our Pa-Rank based on,

#   The frequency with which Ajay keeps calling each of those 10 persons ( who have registered on our site AND are also using our app “ Resume Blaster “ )

#   The duration of each call ( or even text message ? )

We can multiply / sum-up / find average ,  etc of such “ exchanges of messages – both ways “ and arrive at some “ FACTOR “

Then multiply the “  Total No of Live Incoming Links “ with this “ FACTOR “ , to compute PaRank

Looks crude , no doubt !

But Google has proved that it works !

What PageRank is for all the web pages in the World , someday , PaRank will be to all the resumes ( which too , like any web page , are documents ) , in India

We must do it !

On internet , “ Ideas are dime-a-dozen “

But elegant executions are rare !

8 years earlier ( on 21 Dec 2005 ) , I had sent the following proposal to the Shri Ashish Kashyap ( the then Country Manager - Google India ) :

GoogleJobs.com

{ http://hcpreports.blogspot.com/2016/02/google-jobs.html }

It was only this week that Google launched “ Google Job Search “ ( for USA jobs )

I am sure someone in Google will read this blog – then implement it to change the rules of Online Recruitment Industry !

23  June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

How much Capital to create One job ?

   

Some ONE MILLION  ( ten lakh ) youngsters enter the job market , EACH MONTH

How much CAPITAL ( fixed + working ) would be required to give jobs to all of them ?

Following are my guesses to create just ONE JOB in :

·         Pan Beedi shop ( self-employed )………….Rs   1   lakh

·         Tiny grocery shop ( owner operated )…. Rs   3   lakh

·         Barber shop …………………………………………..Rs   5   lakh

·         Pharmacy shop……………………………………… Rs   10  lakh

·         Auto Repair Garage………………………………. Rs   20  lakh

·         Small Factory ( 50 people )………………..   Rs   50  lakh

·         Medium Factory ( 100 people )……………. Rs   75  lakh

·         Large light engineering factory………………Rs  100  lakh ( Rs 1 cr  )

{ Just proposed SAMSUNG factory in UP will invest Rs 5,000 cr and , at full capacity , employ 5,000 people }

·         Machine Tool Manufacturing factory………………….   Rs  2  crore

·         Heavy Engineering factory ( Pressure Vessels )…. Rs  5  crore

·         Service Industry ( based on IT / internet )…………. Rs  50 lakh

It is not difficult to see WHY jobs are not getting created , despite the fact that we have a huge DOMESTIC MARKET to serve 1.3 BILLION people !

It would require a huge amount of CAPITAL to create jobs for 12 million people, each year

On top of that , labour costs ( in organized sector ) are rising very rapidly , prompting the businessmen / industrialists to resort to “ mechanization / automation “

A report in Times of India ( 09 June ) , titled ,

“ India Inc deploys more capital than labour “ ,

provides following information ( source / Annual Survey of Industries / CSO ) :

·         Employment Growth ( 1980-2015 )………………. 1.9 % per annum

·         Capital Growth – CAGR ( 1980-2015 )…………… 14 %

·         No of Employees / factory :

#  Early 1980s……………  80

#  2014-15………………..  60

·         Total Capital Employed / Factory :

#  Early 1980s…………..  Rs 5 lakh

#  2014 – 15…………….   Rs 10 Crore

·         Unit of Labour :

#  Early 1980s…………  Rs 10,000 per year

#  2014 – 15 …………   Rs 157,000 per year

·         In 2009 – 10 :

#  Cost of a Unit of Labour……………. Rs 1.47 lakh

#  Cost of a Unit of Capital…………..  Rs 1.32 lakh

·         In 2014 -15 :

#  Cost of a Unit of Labour…………..  Rs 2.54 lakh

#  Cost of a Unit of Capital……………  Rs 1.46 lakh

Since businesses / industries in large organized sector have to get ever more “ Competitive “ with arrival of Foreign Companies in India , it is not surprising that they are resorting to more and more “ mechanization / automation “ , given the above-mentioned scenario

That means less and less job opportunities !  More and more unemployment  !

IS THERE A WAY OUT ?

May be , if we set aside some “ holy cow “ beliefs and make India , a “ Low Cost Economy “

Policy Makers may want to consider following suggestions :

·         ATicking  Time  Bomb

     { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2014/02/a-ticking-time-bomb.html }

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·         Create  Wealth to  create  Jobs

     { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2014/02/create-wealth-to-create-jobs.html }

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·         A  Virtuous Circle

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/01/a-virtuous-circle.html }

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·         Ideas  to create  Jobs

    {  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/08/ideas-to-create-jobs.html  }

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·         Time  to Rethink

 

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/08/time-to-re-think.html }

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·         Making  India a  Tax  Haven ?

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/04/making-india-tax-haven.html  }

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·         What  would they  do  ?

   {  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/05/what-would-they-do.html  }

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·         Automationis inescapable

    {  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/automation-is-inescapable.html  }

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·         OneUp on Donald  Trump

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/one-up-on-donald-trump.html }

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·         Sun :Our Soul

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/sun-our-soul-new-sos.html  }

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·         Solar  Power at  Rs  1 per Kwh  ?

    { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/solar-power-at-rs-1-per-kwh.html  }

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It is still not too late  !

22  June  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs