From Wage Subsidy to Universal Social Security ?

 

 

Context :

Govt’s wage subsidy via EPFO to spur job creation   /  MINT – 13 Nov

Highlights :

     

ELIGIBLE EMPLOYEES :

( A )   New Employees

         Any person with monthly wage of less than Rs 15,000 and not registered

        earlier with EPFO. these workers should be first-time entrants into the EPFO

        system

        

( B )   Old Employees

         Those who lost job between March 01 and Sept 30 AND whose wage was 

         less than Rs 15,000

( C )   Period for grant of Subsidy                                

         2 years from date of employment ( any date between Oct 20 and June 21 )

( D )   Method of subsidizing

        The subsidy support will be credited upfront in Aadhar-seeded EPFO accounts

         of ELIGIBLE NEW employees (Aadhar seeding will help track the beneficiary

        better )

         

( E )   How many establishment will get covered ?

         More than 95 % of the establishments

( F )   Funds allotted

         Rs 6,000 crore  [  Rs 600,000 lakh ]

 

===================================================

                                            SUMMARIZING

=====================================================================

Size of Employer Company	No of NEW employees that must be hired ( above the base of September 2020 employee count )	Subsidy = 12 % of NEW employees’ share	Subsidy = 12 % of Employer Company’s share for each NEW employee
Less than 50 workers	2	yes	yes
More than 50 workers	5	yes	yes
Less than 1,000 workers	5	yes	yes
More than 1,000 workers	5	yes	NO

 

===================================================

Let us assume ( for a Company with employee count of less than 1,000 ) as follows :

Ø  Every NEW hire ( or re-hired who had lost job ) is paid a monthly wage of Rs 15,000 / - ( simplifying )

Ø  24% of Rs 15,000 = Rs 3,600 ( = Amount of subsidy per month )

Ø  So , for a full year, subsidy will amount to Rs 43,200 (For 2 years = Rs 86,400 per NEW employee )

So , with fund allocation of Rs 600,000 lakh, how many NEW employees can benefit from this scheme for full 2 years ?

Rs 600,000 lakh  / Rs 0.86 lakh = 6, 97, 674

Now the “ Number of NEW employees that must be hired by a company to take advantage of this scheme , ranges between minimum 2 to 5 ( depending upon the current employment number )

Let us say, average would be 3 NEW employees per “ benefiting “ organization

Hence, the number of organization that would benefit from this scheme, would be :

6,97,674  /  3 ( ave. no of NEW employees per organization ) = 2,32,558

Now, as per latest estimates , we have some 65 million ( 650 lakh ) MSME companies in India , employing close to 140 million workers

So this scheme would benefit :

Ø  Some  6.97  lakh NEW workers against existing employee strength of 1400 lakh in MSME alone

Ø  Some  2.32  lakh companies against existing 65 million ( 650 lakh ) MSME companies alone

===================================================

May be I am going terribly wrong with my assumptions and data ! So, I looked up following news report in Business Line ( 14 Nov ) :

Govt to take help from industry chambers to create jobs under new scheme

          Distribution of Factories in operation by size of employment

Employment Size	No of Factories	Ave Employees ( assumed)	Total No of Employees
0 - 14	75,179	7	526,253
15 - 19	16,965	17	288,405
20 - 29	20,672	25	516,800
30 - 49	22,419	40	896,760
50 - 99	23,058	75	1,729,350
100 - 199	16,034	150	2,405,100
200 - 499	11,980	350	4,193,000
500 - 999	4,749	750	3,561,750
1000 - 1999	2,487	1500	3,730,500
2000 – 4,999	1,390	3500	4,865,000
5000 and above	652	7000	4,564,000
TOTAL	195,585		27,276,918

 

Irrespective of the correctness of ASSUMPTIONS regarding the “ No of Employees / No of Employers  “ data, following questions will need to be correctly answered ( by human verifiers or by software ) , in respect of each person hired before SUBSIDY CLAIM from any company can be entertained  :

Ø  What date did he join ? { before 01 Oct 2020 / Between Oct 2020 – June 2021 / After June 2021 }  

Ø  At what wage-level did he join ? { < 15,000 / = 15,000 / > 15,000 }

Ø  Is he a NEW ( first time ) employee or an OLD employee who had lost job ? What proof ? He could have lost job in company X and got re-hired by company Y  !

Ø  Is the company submitting “ claim “ ( for subsidy ) , registered with EPFO or not registered ?

Ø  Has this ( claimant ) company hired any NEW / OLD workers after Sept 30 , 2020 ?

Ø  If yes , how many ? More or less than the stipulated numbers ?

Ø  What was this company’s actual Employee strength as on 30 Sept 2020 ?

Ø  What is the PROOF that this company really / actually hired the persons claimed ?

Ø  A Company may go on hiring NEW / OLD employees , every month between Oct 20 – June 21 . Should that company submitted CLAIMS every month ? Imagine 27 million companies filing SUBSIDY CLAIMS ( for anywhere between 1 to a hundred workers ) EVERY MONTH for 9 months !

I cannot escape the feeling that the,

Ø  Compliance ( record-keeping / feeling up ONLINE claim forms ) burden by the claimant companies, and

Ø  Administrative burden by EPFO / Finance Ministry / Income Tax Department et.,

- would  far exceed the benefit to be derived !

I believe Finance Ministry plans to submit a CABINET NOTE re this scheme within 15 days ( for Cabinet approval )

I urge Smt Sitharamanji , to re-assess the COST / BENEFIT aspects of this scheme before asking Cabinet nod

She may even consider to modify this scheme ( with a HUGE simplicity of administering and not a single form to be filled by companies ), as suggested in my following earlier e mail :

SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING ………………………………..[ 07 Feb 2016 ]

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  15  Nov  2020  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com

IT Outsourcing : a Silver lining ?

 

 

Context :

To Day  /  10 Nov 2020

IT Outsourcing rising as Cost Pressure kicks in   / 

Extract :

Ø  Companies across the world that are hit by Covid and are under pressure to reduce cost are likely to favour outsourcing work to IT services providers in India over insourcing to their captive units in India.

 

Ø  At present there are nearly 1,300 captive centres, or global in-house centres (GICs) in India, and they together employ nearly one-fourth of the 4.3 million workers in the $191-billion IT-Business Process Management sector.

 

Ø  MNCs, over the last three years have either set up new units or expanded their existing ones as they invested more in digital technologies

 

===================================================

3 YEARS ago /  [  Brain Inc 2.0  /  21 Aug 2017 ]

 

Extract :

Now consider this :

 

       >    By employing 5 lakh engineers , India’s “ Tech R&D Firms “ earned $ 22 

             billion . That works to a billing of $  44,000 per man-year of R&D ( Export

             of Services )

             

 

       >    I presume that the “ Manpower Cost “ constitute approx. 50 % of Billing

             Rate ( rest being OVERHEADS and MARGIN )

             

 

 

     >     Hence , Indian R&D firms must be paying an average of $ 22,000 per year to

            its employees ( approx. Rs 1.2   lakh per month )

   

 

 >    As against this , both , Indian as well as American firms pay ( on an average

            ) , $ 88,000 per year to H1 B  visa holders

    

 

    >  With this kind of “ Cost Advantage “ , is there a possibility to do better than

           the projected earnings of $ 40 billion in 2020 ?

 

            

 

===================================================

2 YEARS ago  /  [  Leveraging our Engineering Talent   /   13 Dec 2018 ]

Extract :

 

But , if “ Manufacturing Sector “ and “ Service Sector “ were two horses in the GDP race , I would bet on the “ Service Sector “, especially from the following view-points :

 

Ø    “ Capital Investment per Job created “ would be much lower ( may be 10 % of  Mfg. Sector ? )

 

Ø   Jobs created would be much higher  ( may be 5 times of  Mfg sector ? )

 

Ø  Time ( to create those jobs ) would be much shorter ( months instead of years )

 

Ø   Export of “ Services “ are much easier than export of “ Goods “

 

Ø  Quality of our “ Services “ are comparable – or even better – than from other countries

 

Ø  We will , soon , have the desired quality / quantity of Internet connectivity , all over India

 

Ø  We are turning out thousands of Graduates each year though some need “ Skilling “

 

Ø  Salaries of our Engineers are 20 - 25 % of similar hires in USA – EU – Japan – UK etc

 

===================================================

Dear Shri Ravishankar Prasadji,

 

INDIAN IT BPM INDUSTRY IN FY 19  { Y-O-Y growth }

 

 

#   Revenue…………………… 6.1 %  [  $ 177  billion  ]

 

 

#   Exports…………………….  8.3 %  [  $  136 billion  ]

 

 

#   Domestic Inflow……….  7.9  %  [  Rs 2.9 lakh-crore  ]

 

 

#   Employees………………… 4.3  %  [  4.14  million  ]

 

 

Is there a way we can SALUTE them for this achievement ?

Yes

By letting them loose – giving them a free hand , as suggested in my earlier e-mail :

 

" BACK FACTORY " OF THE WORLD ?....................................[ 09 Sept 2015 ]

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  10  Nov  2020

Live Streaming of Court Proceedings

 

       

SC gears up for live streaming of sessions  /  04 Nov

Extract :

Ø  The panel set up by the E-Committee will give its report on four important aspects,

      #  Infrastructure required for LIVE STREAMING of proceedings from all HCs

           and nearly 20,000 trial courts

      #  Funds needed for this gigantic project that will have to be broken up

           State-wise

     #  Software suitable for this endeavor

     #  The Central assistance required through budgetary allocations

 

=================================================

Here are the approx. working hours / year, for different types of courts :

#  Supreme Court………190 days x 6 hrs/day  =  (  1140 hour  / year ) x 1  Supreme court  =  1140 hours

#  High Courts ……………232 days x 6 hrs/day  =  ( 1392 hours / year ) x 29 High Courts     =   40,368 hours

#  Trial Courts ……………244 days x 6hrs/day  =  (1464 hours / year ) x 20,000 Trial courts  = 29,280,00 hours

[  Together , some 3996 hours / day of audio-video broadcast  ? ]

If all of these courts were to “ LIVE STREAM “ , all of their “ Proceedings “, that would add up to :

A grand total of 2,969,508  hours of VIDEO CONTENT – an unprecedented amount of IMAGE + AUDIO data of millions of,

Ø  Court Cases / Complaints / Complainants / Defendants / Lawyers / Judges / Arguments / Examinations / Cross-examinations / Questions / Answers / Petitions / Bail applications / Verdicts / Stay-Orders / Affidavits / Notices / Documents / Appeals ……etc

In nut shell, a lot of dirty linen being washed ( watched ? ) in public !

When captured ( as Audio and Video ), this will be a treasure-trove of PUBLIC DATABASE  of JUDICIAL PROCEEDINGS (  - assuming such live streaming does not run afoul of pending DATA PROTECTION BILL )

Every single word spoken by anyone ( Litigants – Lawyers – Judges ) can be converted into text ( Speech to Text ) and analyzed, using Artificial Intelligence .

Language Translation software can instantly convert the language ( of those speaking in the courts ), into any other language ( desired by remote viewing listeners )

This massive UNSTRUCTURED DATABASE can be made “ searchable “ by Law students – Lawyers – Judges , in a bewildering varieties of SEARCH TERMS

DATABASE can be used for automatic :

Ø  Framing of  Charge-sheets  / Applications / Appeals / even Judgements !

Ø  Repeal of outdated / obsolete laws

Ø  Drafting of New Laws ?

Ø  Facial Recognition of everyone present in courts

    If in doubt , read :

Ø  AI come to judgement ? Not for a while ! …………………………………..[ 17 Dec 2019 ]

 

Leaving aside these “ By-product Benefits “ of video-streaming of court proceedings, the crucial question is :

“ Who would want to watch these proceedings on TV or any other media ? “

Honest answer : 

Very few people would want to waste their time watching ordinary / trivial / mundane disputes of two ordinary citizen, who you do not even know they exist !

And if there are no VIEWERS, then which TV channel ( or any mobile app ) would waste precious time / bandwidth to broadcast ( live stream ) such non-descript / boring proceedings ?

These TV channels make their money from ADVERTIZERS – who, in turn, decide their advts based on the likely VIEWERSHIP of a given tele-cast. So, if there are no likely viewers, then there can be no tele-cast, nor any advertisers !

Conclusion :

TV Channels ( or any mobile app ) would stoutly resist any coercion on part of Supreme Court to make them LIVE STREAM of court proceedings of ordinary – mundane – boring cases !

But,

These very same media would be happy to LIVE STREAM ( and even pay the Supreme Court , huge sums of money in advance ), if such live streaming were to

#  Get millions of TV viewers to leave everything aside to watch

#  Which, in turn , would bring in a hundred advertisers ( and tons of profit for these media )

Here are some examples of the Court Proceedings (with such MONEY-MAKING potential ) involving :

#   Criminal cases of Politicians ( Opposition will send you SMS not to miss ! )

#   Corruption / Bribery cases of Bankers

#   Favoritism cases of sitting Ministers ( “ Out of turn “ allotment )

#   Defamation cases of Film Celebrities

#   Abetment for suicide cases of TV owners / Anchors

#   Rape cases of well-known Religious leaders

#   Mis-appropriation of funds cases of ( once ) respected Industrialists

#   Sedition cases against Liberals / Social Reformers / Spokesmen of downtrodden

#   Money-laundering cases of leading Businessmen

#   Insider Trading case of Company Directors

#   Purchase of MPs-MLAs cases against Political Parties

#   Ayodhya Ram Mandir case

#   Management Control cases of big Corporate

#   Murder vs Suicide cases of Film personalities

#   Terrorist attack cases of Militant Organizations

#   Ponzi Scheme Fraud cases

#   Match-fixation cases of Sports celebrities

#   Tax Evasion cases of Political Party Leaders / Big Corporate 

  I am sure there are a few others which would grip the curiosity of millions of TV viewers 

 Except ,

These cases go on for weeks / months or even years – with postponements / adjournments granted during each hearing of 10 minutes – followed by the next hearing after 2 weeks or 2 months !

On a typical day, a trial court ,

Ø  Lists some 20  “ ordinary “ cases on the board

Ø  Listens to the arguments in just  5 cases ( 30 – 40 minutes each )

Ø  Announces next “ hearing date “ ( 2 months later ) for the rest 15 cases

Of course, a single hearing for the “ Sensational “ cases ( of the type listed above ), will be heard for the entire 6 hours

But which TV Channel will tele-cast such an episode ( no matter, how sensational ), for 6 hours at a stretch – even if offered FREE by the Supreme Court ?

Next conclusion :

Forget about “ live tele-cast “ of even the sensational cases , spread over months

So , is there an alternative ?

Yes

These Video-graphed episodes ( of those sensational cases only ? or of ALL the cases ? ), should be uploaded on a portal ( www.CourtVideos.gov.in ? ) and made searchable

TV channels ( or Mobile Apps ) can download by making Online Payment and stream / tele-cast to their users

Media should be permitted / authorized to condense the Videos by cropping “ un-interesting “ portions

Such tele-casts would attract advertisers and enable Media to make money

===================================================

Dear Shri Ravishankar Prasadji,

As far as “ Live Streaming of Court Proceedings “ is concerned , following tabulation provides a CONCEPTUAL FRAME-WORK for consideration by Supreme Court / E-Committee

This might require amendments to proposed Data Protection Law ( washing dirty linen in public ? )

My suggestion would ,

Ø  Fulfill the much-sought after requirement of TRANSPARENCY ( through searchable Video portal )

Ø  Avoid any coercion of free press

Ø  Motivate TV / Media to tele-cast ( though not “ live-streaming “)

With regards,

Hemen Parekh /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com  / 10 Nov 2020

=================================================

   CONCEPTUAL FRAME-WORK  for LIVE STREAMING of Court Proceedings

Court Type	Location / Platform	Live-Streaming Method	Live-Stream viewable on what Media	Who can watch	Device for Viewing	How to monetize this Video Content ?
Physical Courts	Brick & Mortar Court-rooms	CCTV Cameras in each Court – Internet connected ? Satellite beaming DTH ?	TV channels / Search Engines / Youtube / Facebook / Netflix	Everyone / 200 million TV homes / including Litigants and their Lawyers	TV	As described above
Virtual E - Courts	Portal with unlimited no. of virtual courts	Built into the Portal’s architecture	Only on Portal	Only by login / Litigants and their Lawyers	Mobiles / Tablets / Laptops / PCs	Absolutely no monetizing ! Everything FREE to encourage ever-greater use of e-courts

 

 Added on 09 Oct 2023 :

AI in Law. Supreme Court embraces AI for transcribing live proceedings

 

 

The SC had called for sealed bids in a three-cover system (EMD, technical bid and financial bid) from experienced and reputable firms for the design, development and implementation of AI solutions for transcribing arguments and court proceedings