A Black Swan ?

Will the 2014 national elections throw up a " Black Swan " event  ?

Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan "  ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :

>  It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,

    because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

>  It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "

>  In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct  

     " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it

     explainable and  PREDICTABLE

   

In brief ,

>   Rarity

>   Extreme Impact

>   Retrospective Predictability

According to Taleb ,

>   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan

Example of Black Swan  ?

>  Kumar Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul

    Gandhi in 2014 - and defeating him  !

Here is why  :

>   Amethi Lok Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for

     past many decades . To save face , no other political party fields any

    heavy-weight candidate from Amethi  (  RARITY  )

>   A Kumar Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds

     of Aam Aadmi Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in

     their respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose

    their deposits ! ( EXTREME  IMPACT  )

>   What makes Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE  ?

     Simple

     *  People don't want " more of the same " for another 5 years .

        ( viz : Dynasty Rule )

     *  People want a change

     *  People believe , AAP will eliminate corruption

     *  People think AAP will work for the benefit of the poor

     *  People have seen what AAP government delivered within 48 hours

         of assuming power in Delhi

     *  BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this blog nor read " Black

         Swan  " !

No doubt , experts debating election results on TV channels , in June 2014

( after the fact ) , will concoct many other " Explanations " to justify the

occurrence of this Black Swan  !

*   hemen   parekh   (  03  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai )

   

Robinhood of Delhi ?

All of last evening , experts were debating on TV channels ,

"  Is Kejriwal robbing Peter ( rich ) to pay Paul ( poor )   ?  "

They were discussing the losses that Delhi treasury will suffer ( approx Rs 25-35 Crores per month ) due to ,

>  20 KL 0f free water

>  50 % subsidy on power ( up to 400 units / month )

But AAP leaders are saying ,

" If Peter is rich and Paul is poor , then there is nothing wrong with robbing Peter to pay Paul  "

What they are leaving unsaid is ,

"  It is better to be a Robinhood  than to be a Robbing Hoodlum  !

  Robbing Hoodlums of Congress governments have been robbing the poor for the   past 66 years and making the rich  richer,  and poor  poorer  !

Dear Experts ,

 Will you please explain ,

>  Who got Rs 50,00000 Crores worth of Scam money in last 15 years  ?

>  Who have deposited Rs 300,000 Crores worth of black money in Swiss banks ?

>   Which Industrialists / Businessmen have failed to return to the Nationalized Banks , Rs 200,000 Crores of loans - without any efforts at recovering the same  ?

>   Which private money-lenders are making 20,000 farmers commit suicide every year , for failing to repay their small loans ?

>   Who are all travelling Air India on subsidized  air-fares , which has bled the Government of Rs 100,000 Crores in past 15 years ?

>   To which businessmen have State and Central governments gave away - almost free - Rs 500,000 Crores worth of farming land to set up SEZ  ?

>   How many sick ( ICU ? ) Public Sector Units have the poor people of India kept " alive " , by subsidizing them to the tune of Rs 100,000 ,000 Crores over the past 60 years ?

Who got this money  ?

And if you dispute our figures , will you tell us the correct figures  ?  "

But since these  " self-appointed economic experts "  have no honest answers to these questions , they are telling AAP government ,

"  You are not supposed to fulfill your poll promises by increasing the EXISTING levels of subsidy on water and power

If you have only a few hours to survive , within that period , why don't you ,

>  Lay 150 Km of water pipe lines  ?

>  Install 20 lakh new water meters / replace 10 lakh defective ones ?

>  Ditto for Electric meters

>  Get CAG to finish its audit of 3 Discoms ?

>  Get DERC to announce new tariff , revised downwards by 50 %  ?

>  Float tenders , finalize and appoint 6 Discoms ( to replace existing 3 ) ?

>  Study 200 files of CWG Scam tenders and file cases against corrupt government officers / contractors / politicians , who minted money  ?

Why can't you do these things by tomorrow evening  ?

Don't you know , extending existing subsidy % , is bad economics  , even if it is good politics ?

In any case , by precedence of past 60 years , bad economics has been solely our prerogative

How dare you copy us , then claim originality ?  "

AAP may choose not to answer

But by May / June 2014 , 760 million voters will

And depressed / tortured / raped / murdered / looted people around the World , will applaud an alternative to violent Arab Spring  !

Mahatma will rise from the Rajghat  !

*   hemen   parekh   (   02  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )

Congressmen are Confused !

AAP made a few poll promises - prominent being ,

>   700 Liters of free water per month

>   50 % subsidy in power bills

And people of Delhi elected them to power

Then within 48 hours of forming government , AAP fulfilled these promises

Total cost  ?

Less than Rs 40 Crores / month

Congressmen are asking themselves ,

"   We promised Rs 200 Cr / month of freebies - and got thrown out of Rajasthan / MP / Chhattisgarh

   

    What went wrong  ?

    The more we promise , the more we lose  !

    And , to win 2014 elections , we have promised 600 million poor people

    a monthly subsidy of Rs 8,000 Crores by way of Food Security Bill

    At this rate , what will happen to us  ?

    It seems , the more freebies you promise , the greater your chance of being thrown out of power 

    

    And look at what Rahul Gandhi has promised the people of Amethi  :

   >   A railway coach factory

   >   A University

   >   A paper mill

   >   40 food processing units

   >   Indian Institute of Information Technology

   >   Footwear Design and Development Institute

   >   IT hub in Tikarmafi

   >   A railway line  ..................etc

  But Kumar Vishwas (  AAP  candidate for Amethi ) is promising only ,

  >    A clean / corruption-free / pro-poor government

No more  !

With just 5 months before the 2014 elections , how can our would-be Prime Minister , withdraw those promises  ?

And , since the logic of " Less is More " seems to work , does that mean Kumar Vishwas will defeat Rahul Gandhi  ?   "

And Rahul Gandhi is asking Sheila Dikshit :

>  Why , in 15 years , you did not implement what Arvind Kejriwal did  ?

>  Why you did not ask CAG to conduct an audit of Discoms  ?

>  Why you did not hold Mohalla - Sabhas  to connect with Aam Aadmi  ?

>  Why you failed to figure out that people wanted toilets, not highways  ?

Now , all of you , repeat after me , and loudly please

>    Less is More

>    Simple is Elegant

>    Adarsh is not Ideal

>    Aam is not Ordinary

>    CAG is credible

>    Jhadu will sweep

>    Congress will weep

     

Sheila Dikshit , Chidambaram , Kapil Sibal , Salman Khurshid , Jairam Ramesh , Manish Tewari , Kamal Nath , Digvijay - and sundry other Netas , are utterly confused !

*   hemen   parekh   (  01  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )     

Overwhelming Demands ?

You bet  !

Looking at the crowds shouting their demands outside Arvind Kejriwal's residence , you would think , people of Delhi have unlimited arrears of problems

Individuals and groups are trooping in from far and wide , demanding :

>  Better physical services ( Power / Water / Homes / Transport )

>  Jobs ( Permanency / Removal of Contract System / New jobs )

>  Reservations / Abolitions / Implementations / Resignations

>  Admissions / Legalizations / Transfers

>  Roll back of CNG Prices / Reduction of Vegetable prices

>  Security / Loans / Pensions

The list goes on and on

Only problem

Whereas demands are " Unlimited " ,  resources ( Manpower + Money + Systems ) are " Limited "  !

Hence Arvind will need to evolve a simple method to evaluate the " IMPORTANCE " and the " URGENCY " of these demands

He may want to devise an online form  or , like last time , print and distribute 50 lakh forms , which only need to be ticked , as in a multiple choice questionnaire

Then , on a scale of 1- 5 , invite people of Delhi to score each demand on the following criteria :

How does this problem affect  ?

>  Economic Status ( Rich / Middle Class / Poor )

>  Geographic Coverage ( Posh Area / Middle class locality / Slums )

>  Gender ( Male / Female / Both )

>  Age  ( Old people / Middle Age  /  Children )

>  Coverage  ( Entire population / Majority / One Community only )

>  Nature  (  Political / Social / Economic )

>  Character  ( Establish Equity / Reduce Disparity / Speed up Justice )

>  Scope  ( Job Creation / Health / Education / Corruption Removal )

>  Time Frame  ( Crisis Situation / Urgent / Can wait  )

Then display the demands in the descending order of " PERCENTILE  SCORES  " - so people get to know what will get attended to and when

For AAP , with its inclination for seeking people's opinion through " STRUCTURED STATISTICAL SURVEYS " , devising such a transparent and easily understood " PROCESS  " , cannot be a big deal

Incidentally , no individual problem / demand should be included in the survey

Carrying out such a pilot ,  " SOCIO - ECONOMIC - POLITICAL " experiment can take our democracy to the grass-root level and give the people a sense of participation in solving their own problems

At the same time , people will be made aware that ,

>    Resources are limited

>    All demands cannot be attended simultaneously

>    Injustice of past 15 years cannot be undone in the next 15 days

*    hemen   parekh   (   31  Dec  2013  /  Mumbai  )

A System - based Solution

DEAR  PEOPLE  OF  DELHI  :

Of course , you have a right to complain to your government and seek solutions to your problems

But then , 150 lakh people could each have a problem which , he / she wants solved " yesterday "  !

That would inundate your government , leading to a chaos , instead of satisfactory solutions  !

That is why Arvind said ,

"  Give us 10 days time to put in place , a system "

You could help him devise / implement  such a system

To begin with , submit your complaints in the following " Structured " manner ( - should be NEATLY handwritten ) :

-------------------------------------

COMPLAINT  FORM

>   Complainant Name

>   Age

>   Gender

>   Mobile No

>   Landline No

>   Email Id ( Optional )

>   Address

>   Nature of Complaint

>   To be attended by Dept ( your best guess )

>   Max no of days in which to attend ( be generous )

>   Date submitted ( date / month / year )

--------------------------------------------------------------

You may handover your complaint to ,

>    Government Secretariat

>    Arvind's Residence (  deposit in box kept outside

  )

>    Nearest  AAP  office

You gave previous Congress Government , 15 years for solutions of your problems - with no solutions

Now give , at least 15 days to AAP government  !

Be reasonable  !   Be patient  !

DEAR  ARVIND  :

Here are a few suggestions for you,

>   Within 10 days , print and distribute such a Complaint Form , widely

      all over Delhi . Keep it simple  ! Hindi as well

>    Make it downloadable from Delhi Government web site

>    Within 15 days , enable online submission of complaints on Govt web

      site . For each complaint , give comprehensive feedback . Make entire

      database searchable to any visitor , in a transparent manner

>   Within 30 days , start a Call - Center , where people can register their

      complaints over phone (  IVRS  ?  )

>   Within 45 days , launch Mobile App , "  Magic  Wand " , suggested by

      me , 2 days back 

*   hemen   parekh   (  30  Dec  2013  /  Mumbai  )

A Frog in Well ?

In Sanskrit , it is called , "  Koop  Mandook  "

A frog which cannot see the Sun rise ( - in Sanskrit , Arvind stands for Sun )

There is no other explanation for Nitin Gadkari to allege that a leading industrialist brokered a deal between AAP and Congress

There is no other explanation for Dr Harshvardhan to say ,

"   AAP will fail to deliver on its promises "

The leader of the opposition in Delhi Assembly ( who , in his post-swearing in speech , Arvind described as a " good man " ) , could not have dreamed that Arvind will motivate 50,000 Delhi-ites to chant ,

"  I will neither offer bribe , nor take bribe "

The good Doctor could not have realized that , after this slogan , Arvind need not worry about fulfilling AAP's poll promises

With this slogan , people of Delhi will themselves fulfill their own dreams  !

Even as experts ( - and some eminent non-experts ) , were debating till late in the night , how AAP will fail ,

>  Red beacons disappeared from official cars ( Magic Wand  ? )

>  Powerful bureaucrats were , unceremoniously shunted out

Do the feudal lords of Congress / BJP realize that , if AAP manages to cleanse the Delhi Administration of corruption , then people don't care if AAP fails to deliver on all of its other poll promises  ?

Most dangerous / unnerving thought  !

Most calamitous prophesy  !

Most certain obliteration  !

Nitinji ,

Remember that 26 year old dalit girl Rakhi Birla defeating a veteran Congress Minister in Delhi  ?

You would do well not to contest your 2014 Lok Sabha seat against Anjani Damania from Gadh Chiroli or Mumbai's Worli  !

People without homes , electricity , water , schools , toilets , hospitals etc , have sounded the death-knell of the corrupts  !

Can you hear it  ?

A new Sun has risen

The sooner you come out of your Koop and see it , the better  !

Sonia / Rahul have seen it

That is why they want Adarsh Scam Report " re-considered "  !

*   hemen  parekh  (  29  Dec  2013  /  Mumbai  )    

Great Expectations

People of Delhi have " Great Expectations " from AAP government

And people of India will be watching how well AAP delivers on those expectations before 2014 general elections

Will AAP manage to deliver on its promises  ?

Here is when great expectations turn into " Unreasonable Expectations "  !

TV anchors are asking this question to every single AAP leader - all the time

And , they are also asking this question to sundry BJP / Congress leaders as well

Asking persons who are taking vicarious pleasure in predicting that AAP will fail miserably

Other than a random AAP leader ( notably , Arvind Kejriwal himself ), no one is saying ,

"   Of course , AAP will fail to deliver on some of those promises - especially

    those promises which require a YES nod from Central Government

    Of course , AAP may have made some miscalculations

    Of course , AAP has no experience in running a government

    Of course , AAP will make some mistakes

    Of course , AAP has no solutions to ALL the problems of Delhi

    So what  ?

    In 2009 , didn't Congress promise to ,

    >  abolish poverty ( as it has been promising for past 66 years )  ?

    >  bring inflation under control within 100 days of coming to power ?

        -  and then repeating that promise , every 100 days ?

       -  and even forcing Planning Commission and the RBI governor to say

       the same thing at every quarterly review  ?  "

Obviously , the vanquished are in a tearing hurry to write an epitaph on AAP's tombstone  !

I am reminded of the vultures circling in the sky when they see an animal dying on the ground  !

Are you surprised that the political vultures are waiting for AAP government to die / fail  ?

Are TV anchors allowing these vultures to use their powerful media to bring about , a " Self - fulfilling Prophesy "  ?

Have we become an ant crawling on a M F Hussein painting , which cannot step back and see it in perspective , in all its glory ?

On midnight of 15th August 1947 , I walked with the crowds of people ( all of them Aam Aadmi ) , from Shivaji Park to Gateway of India , in Mumbai

It took me 12 hours to walk that distance

But I was lucky to have witnessed history in the making

And now , after a lapse of 66 years , I am lucky once again , to be witnessing , another glorious moment of history !

Let us celebrate the arrival of our second freedom - the Surajya

Let us celebrate the beginning of the end of Cancer of Corruption

Let us celebrate the re-birth of the Common Man - the Aam Aadmi

*   hemen   parekh   (  28   Dec   2013  /  Mumbai  )