As two months get over since announcement
of demonetization , it is time to take stock of the situation
Here is a brief list of OBJECTIVES
( some stated at the outset and a few invented as time passed ) , and actual ACHIEVEMENTS :
SHORT
TERM OBJECTIVE :
To unearth all BLACK MONEY and suck it into the Banking System ( viz: Rs
500 / 1000 notes )
Achievement :
Although there is no finality as to the
VALUE of old notes that have returned , it does appear that , by and large ,
this OLD STOCK of "
Black Money in CASH
" , has been extinguished ( or got cleverly converted into WHITE , if your friendly bankers
obliged you for just 30 %
! )
I wonder what Shri Arun Jaitleyji meant by saying yesterday
:
" Black Money did not change its
color merely by getting deposited in bank "
He has very little supporting evidence to
prove in a court that Rs 4 lakh*crore, deposited by individuals, in 60 lakh bank accounts each , was
indeed BLACK before getting deposited
!
Through 1138
searches and issue of 5184
notices , what has the government " achieved " in past 2 months ?
Seizure of Rs 200
crore worth of NEW notes and jewellery ! And referring 526 cases to CBI / ED !
Even as people have forgotten 5 / 15 years old, ongoing court cases , involving corruption of thousands of crores of rupees , in case of
A Raja / Kanimozi / Dayanidhi Maran / Subroto Sahara / Suresh Kalmadi / Lalu
Yadav / Coal Scam / Telgi Scam / Bofors Scam etc !
Going by this history , how many " decades " will CBI / ED take to file 526 FIRs ?
Then there is, a somewhat belated realization that much of the OLD STOCK was in the form
of Gold / Jewellery / Land / Benami Property etc , which , just cannot be
" demonetized " in short term .
MEDIUM
TERM OBJECTIVE :
To permanently STOP
future generation of BLACK MONEY
Achievement :
Total failure !
If anything , with introduction of Rs
2000 note , this has been made twice as easy !
There is only ONE WAY .
Implement,
{
http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/for-want-of-nail.html }
LONG
TERM OBJECTIVE :
To move India to a LESS CASH economy ,
through an aggressively marketed system of DIGITAL PAYMENTS ( Cards / ATM / Wallets /
Electronic Clearances / UPI etc )
Achievement :
This objective is ON TRACK
, and likely to take us to 50 % Non-Cash
transaction Economy , by 2020
This has come about due to :
*
MSME / Ordinary consumers had NO OTHER ALTERNATIVE ( but go digital ) , in order to
survive
! ( much like a child learning to swim by thrashing hands / legs , when thrown
into
water , or risk drowning ! )
* Mobile Wallet companies / Banks / FinTech Companies / E
Commerce firms , saw a huge
opportunity
for making tons of money by aggressively marketing their digital products !
Of course , with plenty of help from the Government , offering pittance
of " discounts
"
and sundry " prizes " !
Notwithstanding
all of this push to GO
DIGITAL , our day-to-day payments will slide back
to
CASH, as soon as there is plenty of supply of Rs 500 notes( no getting away
from that )
UNSTATED
OBJECTIVES :
* Interest Rates
will come down
Sure , with a huge influx of funds , most
banks have cut their interest rates by 60-80 basis points for lending of loans
but so far , there are few
takers !
And banks will reduce the interest
payable on Savings Accounts , if not already done
* Direct tax
collection will go up
It is hoped that 6 million Black Money holders who have deposited Rs 7 lakh*crores into their bank accounts , will come forward
to declare their ( so far ) hidden incomes under PMGKY and pay up 50 % tax .
If last Undisclosed Assets Declaration
Scheme is any indication, do not expect more than Rs 40,000 crores to get
declared , yielding Rs 20,000 cr by way of taxes
* Billions of
Rupees will get invested in Infrastructure Projects
Sure
, most of those Rs 7 lakh*cr deposited in banks could get invested in Infra SPVs, if :
* No questions are asked as to
the source of those deposits ( SPV specific Amnesty
Scheme
)
* SPVs cannot declare dividends
for 10 years
* Investments can be withdrawn
after 10 years ( along with accrued dividends ) by
paying prevailing tax rates
In fact , such an announcement can bring in a further Rs 70 lakh*crores of fresh
deposits into banks by Black Money holders liquidating their Gold / Jewellery / Land etc
Dear Shri Jaitleyji :
It is still not too late to ,
(http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/embrace-inevitable.html
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09 Jan 2017
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
