This jigsaw puzzle consists of :
·
Our current population of Petrol/Diesel
vehicles …………….. 220 + Million
·
No of vehicles getting added per year ……………………………… 10 + Million
·
In 2 years ( by end 2020 ), population will
become ………… 240 +
Million
·
Target date for complete change over to EV ……………………… 2030
Now , if we assume that , after 2 years , ie : starting
2021,
# No new petrol / diesel vehicles get made /
sold ( no more than wishful thinking ! )
# All new vehicles
will be Electric Vehicles only
Even then ,
# In 10 years (
between 2021 – 2030 ) , we need to replace ( through scrapping of old
vehicles ? ), some 24 Million vehicles, EACH
YEAR ( total of 240 million in 10 years ! )
If we assume that the depreciated value of those OLD
vehicles is just Rs ONE lakh each, then we are
talking of scrapping assets worth Rs 24,000 Crore , EACH YEAR !
Year after year , for 10 years !
Now we know that , in a Petrol / Diesel vehicle , only
polluting sub-assembly is the engine
Other than the engine, the body / chasis etc of that
vehicle may be in good condition and worth salvaging ( - could be half of the
depreciated value of the vehicle ? )
But how ?
By retro-fitting those old Petrol / Diesel vehicles by,
# Removing the polluting engine / transmission
etc
# Fitting in ,
a Lithium-ion Battery / Electric Motors / Electronic Controls etc
In short , convert them to Electric Vehicles ( - green reincarnation
? )
Some 31 months back , in
my blog / email ,
[ Piyush Plan ? / 27 March
2016 ]
I wrote :
# DISPOSAL OF EXISTING VEHICLES (
200 million + produced till 2030 )
* Enable / encourage MSME units to carry out " Retro Fitting " of
existing vehicles
* Vehicles older than 15 years to be taken off the roads .
Encourage MSME to salvage
whatever they can from such vehicles ( eg : Steel )
* Provide special incentives to export such " Pre-Used / Reconditioned
" to less developed
countries
I repeated this suggestion in my following email :
Retiring
Old Vehicles - Gadkari Style ?
/ 30 March 2016
Then , as recently as 01 Nov 2018, in my following e mail to our Policy Makers ,
[ Better
Late than Never ! ]
I wrote :
# Why scrap entire
vehicle ? Why not retrofit ?
· In an OLD vehicle,
-
only “ Polluting Sub Assembly “ is the ENGINE
-
other “ Non-Polluting Sub
Assemblies “ are :
Body – Chasis – Transmission – Tyres etc
So , why SCRAP those non-polluting parts ?
Why not just scrap the old engine and retro-fit the vehicle with
a brand NEW engine ( BS VI compliant ) ?
That will mean re-utilizing some 80 % of the asset and , at the
same time getting rid of the air pollution !
Now it seems that the missing link of our jigsaw puzzle
has finally arrived !
Here it is :
E-Trio Automobiles,
a Hyderabad based startup will soon launch electric vehicle conversion kits for
conventionally powered cars in India. The company claims to be the first
enterprise to have received ARAI approval for electric vehicle kits for the
Maruti Suzuki Alto and Wagon R.
The company has been testing these kits for the last two
years and aims to retrofit 5,000 units in the next year. It's factory is up and
running and has the capacity to produce 1,000 units per month.
The retrofitted Alto and Wagon R can run 150 km on a
single charge. The company is also in discussions with other manufacturers from
Japan and Thailand. These new cars will have a range of 210 km.
Sathya Yalamanchili, ( @sathya_ys) ,
the founder of the start-up, said that retrofitting
is the way to go and need of the hour and
these cars currently are the most efficient and economical cars compared to
their counterparts in the market. The company's vision is to create e-mobility
which inspires and nurtures pollution free India. Affordable range is the key
to helping electro mobility achieve a breakthrough in the near future.
Retrofitting, if done up to a proper
standard, makes a lot of sense for a price-conscious market like India where
the entry-price of EVs is a major hindrance to their take-up.
Obviously , E-Trio cannot retro-fit
24 Million vehicles , each year
Each of these vehicle has a
considerable salvage value – in terms of “ steel scrap “
May be 21.6 Million tons of scrap from those 24 million
vehicles ?
Quite a lot as compared to some 5.7 million tons of steel
scrap that India imported in 2016-17 to feed its steel industry ( valued at Rs
1,500 Cr including import duty @ 26 % ? )
Not only will India save this foreign exchange but could well earn some
precious foreign exchange by exporting steel scrap , generated by those 24
million vehicles !
So , it is heartening that the
Government is about to come out with : Steel Scrap Policy
Read :
There is one more piece of this
jigsaw puzzle
Where – and how – will we manage to scrap
those 24 million vehicles and salvage that scrap ?
It seems , even this is falling in
its place !
Some time back ,in this regard , I had written following mails to Policy Makers
:
Car
Grave-Yard of World ? / 14 Feb 2018
And further wrote :
Remember,
steel scrap from just 50 million cars would
amount to 45 million tons
And when
used as feed-stock for our steel plants , that would bring down the selling
price of steel sheets ( used for making new vehicles ), from current Rs 50,000 per ton to Rs 30, 000 per ton !
In
turn , that would bring down the ex-factory selling price of cars by Rs 15,000 / - , eliminating
any need for providing long-term incentives / benefits to our auto industry or
customers
I do hope NDA govt gives serious consideration to my suggestion
( source : One
door closes ; Another opens / 27 Feb 2018
)
It seems these suggestions are about to get implemented
, as seen from :
Mega
employment zones plan gets Niti Aayog approval
Additional
Related E Mails to Policy Makers :
Rename
it , “ Vehicle Recycle Policy “
/ 08 Aug 2018
Mahindra
Accelo : Saluting a pioneer / 19 June 2018
My only worry at this stage is :
Will different Ministries and their umpteen departments
, work in tandem ?
Will they coordinate their “ moves “ like those trapeze
artists of a circus ?
=========================================================
16 Nov 2018
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs