Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday 20 September 2018

Is Sun setting on Solar ?




Recent news :



Giriraj Renewables, part of Avaada Energy, emerged as the biggest winner getting 300 Mw at Rs 2.44 per unit.

====================








Wondering what is going on ?
  


I will tell you . It is a mess  !


*  Coal based power projects of approx 40,000 MW are " stressed " with total NPA of Rs
   2 lakh*crores . Those which are struggling to survive , are likely to close down soon .


   They are uneconomical since operating at PLF of under 50 %



*   Those which are efficient / profitable , are starved of coal



*   Safeguard Duty ( 25 % ) has made solar producers to keep away from recent tenders

    Between march and July , some 3900 MW of solar capacity auctions got cancelled – of
    these 1,000 MW have been re-tendered



*   Safeguard Duty is unlikely to help the local ( domestic ) Solar Panel Industry because
    Chinese manufacturers ( exporters ) are expected to drop their prices by 30 % by Dec
    2018 , since their local ( Chinese ) demand has dropped dramatically and they have
    huge capacities which are idling ! They are desperate to sell to India



*   On top of this , Chinese manufacturers are making significant improvement in the
    efficiencies of their Solar PV modules / Panels , so price per Kw is dropping



*   Recent Solar tenders stipulated " Max Price per Kw " - which is keeping our solar
    producers away from quoting 



*  State DISCOMS are backing out of already signed PPA with the Solar producers and
   demanding re-negotiation of tariff  !



*  Many solar projects are ready to deliver power but the Transmission Lines are just not
   there !



*  In all of this confusion , no banker wants to advance loans to projects which may turn
   into NPA even before going on stream !




*  Even for viable Solar projects , bankers are afraid to make commitment for fear of
   being hounded by CBI - RBI - SEBI – etc





As a result of all of these , it seems highly unlikely that we would manage to meet our Solar Power target of 100 GW by 2022 , with current installations of just 23 GW ( - leaving a balance of 77 GW to be achieved in next 51 months ! Nearly 4.5 GW / Qtr )



What is the way out ?


·         Shift focus to Roof Top Solar ( of course , continue with Utility Scale )


·         Why Roof Top ?


     No Govt tendering / No transmission lines / No PPA with DISCOMs / No metering
     / No land cost / Hundreds of small suppliers who will compete / quote / install /
     commission / maintain / service / 30 % Govt subsidy


·         What is holding back the roof top ?
       
            #  Local permissions / Subsidy procedures / Balance 70 % of Capital Cost to be
                borrowed from banks @ 15 % interest ( tedious procedures / guarantees /
                collaterals ) . Individuals stand no chance. Only Coop Hsg Societies benefit


           #   Bribing of electricity suppliers’ officers for “ reverse metering “


          #   Non availability to store the power for use at night ( lack of Storage Batteries )



·         What is required to be done ?


#   Amend Electricity Act ( Anyone can generate solar power , anywhere , any time
     and sell to any one at any price )


#   Create SOLAR BANK ( SPV ) , where BLACK MONEY can be deposited ( Fixed
     Deposits of 5 year maturity which cannot be terminated midway but can be gifted
     to anyone )


#   For depositing BLACK MONEY in SOLAR BANK , no questions by Income Tax Dept
     as to the source / no tax / no penalty / no prosecution ( $ 400 Billion assured  )


#   FD will earn 1 % interest


#   Solar Bank will finance Roof Top projects at 2 % interest rate ( to replace 70 %
     Bank funding of 15 % interest rate ) . 


This will accelerate installations to exceed
     the targets . 


Solar Bank to tie up with India Post Payment Bank to extend such
     loans through its network of 145,000 post offices



               Solar Bank will extend such loans to EV Battery Charging Stations which do not
              draw power from the grid but generate their own solar power



        #   It should be made mandatory for all those 22 million Affordable Houses ( also
             targeted for 2022 ) to have pre-installed Roof Top Solar plants , before handing
            over to the occupants




References :


Roof Top Solar : Better Alternative




Clean Power ?


Solar Roofs ? Why not ?


Solar Power : Internal Rate of Return 


Unsustainable SRISTI ? 



Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana 


Roof Top Solar : Stuck at Plinth Level ? 


Green Buildings ? Put Greed to Work ! 


Solar Power at Rs 1 per Kwh ?



I urge Minister for New and Renewable Energy , Shri R K Sighji , to consider my suggestions


20  Sept  2018









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