Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do.

There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Tuesday, 20 November 2018

Transport : an Integrated Logistic Plan ?





Dear Shri Suresh Prabhuji,


Speaking at CILT Expo 2018 , you said : 

“We are preparing an INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PLAN and also a portal to make logistics efficient and cost – effective in the country“


And on last Monday , PM Shri Modiji launched a GRAND CHALLENGE to further improve India’s position in the World Bank’s EASE  OF  DOING  BUSINESS ranking to the top 50 by using cutting edge technology [ Internet of Things – Artificial Intelligence – Big Data Analytics – Block Chain ] , to reform government processes

Please allow me to offer following suggestion which will meet both these objectives


A : PROBLEM   STATEMENT

Transport is getting to be a big problem world-wide
By 2018 , total number of cars / buses / trucks in the world was approx. 1.4 Billion
By 2036 , this is expected to go up to 2.8 Billion ( doubling in 20 years )
I have not bothered to dig up figures for bicycles - 2 / 3 Wheeler – Tractors etc
In short travelling / transporting is getting to be a huge headache
And emission pollution is killing millions
All over the world , experts and authorities are coming up with a number of suggestions to solve this problem
To me, these attempts seem disparate / loose / uncoordinated / tangential
I have yet to come across a holistic / all-encompassing / multi-dimensional solution

Following is my suggestion for an   INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PLAN  [  ILP  ]


B : GUIDING PRINCIPLES / GOALS of  ILP

·         Minimize all kinds of transport

o   Minimize: Private transport / People travel / Polluting transport
o   Maximize: Public transport / Non-polluting transport / Video-Conferencing
o   Discourage: Land-based transport / “Within City “transport / “Privately Owned transport
o Encourage: Air based transport / Water based transport / “Public owned “Transport / Shared
                       transport / Night – time transport
o   Raise:        “ Ease of Doing Business “ rank to under 50
o   Lower:      “ Cost of logistics “ from current 14 % of GDP to 6 % of GDP


C:   ROAD-MAP TO ACHIEVE THESE OBJECTIVES

o   Levying of TRANS-TAX on all vehicles from birth to death of a vehicle ( irrespective of change in ownership through gifting / selling )
o   TRANS-TAX will get collected automatically and for each hour of a vehicle’s life
o   In this collection process , there will be NO HUMAN INTERVENTION whatsoever
o   Amount of TRANS-TAX to be collected every hour , will depend on it’s TRANSCORE
o   A vehicle’s TRANSCORE will be based on its total HQ [ Harm Quotient ] for that hour
o   Higher the total HQ [ TRANSCORE ] , higher the TRANS-TAX ( directly proportional )
o   Logic : To lower their TRANS-TAX liability , people will opt for vehicles and driving conditions which generate a low TRANSCORE
o   TRANS-TAX will replace all other vehicle-related taxes ( eg : Registration tax / Road Tax etc ) , other than the GST payable by buyer at time of purchase of vehicle
o   TRANS-TAX will be uniform throughout India but credited to the State in which vehicle is, at each hour of its life
o   TRANS-TAX will be computed as per following HQ  MATRIX . For exact mechanism , look up para on TECHNOLOGY  PLATFORM below
o   This is a conceptual frame work and transport experts may debate and come up with a different set of “ Factors “ / “ Weightages “ / “ Rating Scales “
o   Without doubt , all of these will differ from country to country and from time to time , within the same country


D: LOGIC   FOR   DETERMINING   “HARM QUOTIENT"

  HQ [ Harm Quotient] Matrix


Rating Scale

Worst  (5)
Bad  (4)
Fair  (3)
Good  (2)
Best (1)

Factor / 
Weightage
Energy Source /
15
Diesel
Petrol
Hybrid
Li-ion Battery
Solar Roof  Car
Ownership
10
Private
Leased
Short hire / Ride-share
Municipality
Government
Purpose
5
Carry people
Carry  Goods
Industrial Use
Age of Vehicle
    5
  10 +  years
8  – 10  years
6 - 8  years
4 - 6  years
<  4  years
Type of Vehicle
5
Car
Scooter
Quadricycle / Rickshaw
Bus
Train / Metro/ Boat
Capacity
5
1 person
2 persons
3 - 4 persons
5 - 50 persons
  50 +
Space Used
5
City Roads
City Metro
Highways
Train tracks
Inland waterways
Time when used
5
8am -10am
5pm -7pm
10am -12noon
7pm - 9pm
12noon - 5pm
9pm -12midnight
12midnight -8am
Where used
20
Within City
Outside City
State of Use
20
In Motion
Parked
If Parked-where
10
On Public Road
In public parking lot
In Private Garage

















 


E : ILLUSTRATION  OF  THE   COMPUTATION  OF  HQ


Factor :  Energy Source  

Diesel / Petrol / Hybrid / Li-ion Battery Powered / Powered by Solar Roof Top
Factor Rating                           :   5 (Worst) / 4 / 3 (Fair) / 2 (Good) /   1 (Best)
Factor Weightage                     :  15
Select                                       :    Diesel 
HQ (Harm Quotient )               = Rating x Weightage  = 5 x 15  =  75


Factor :  Ownership

Private  / Leased / Short hire - Ride Share  /  Municipality  / Government
Factor  Rating                          :    5 ( worst ) /  4  /  3 ( Fair )  /  2  (  Good  ) /  1 ( Best )
Factor Weightage                     :    10
Select                                       :    Private
HQ                                           =  Rating x  Weightage  =  5 x  10  =  50


Factor  :   Purpose

Carry People  /   Carry  Goods   /   Industrial Use
Factor  Rating                          :      People (Worst - 5 ) / Goods ( Fair ) / Ind  Use ( Best  - 1 )   
Factor  Weightage                    :      5
Select                                       :      People
HQ                                           :     Rating  x  weightage  =  5  x  5   =   25



Factor : Age of Vehicle

10 + years  / 8 – 10  years  /  6 - 8  years  /  4 - 6  years  /   < 4  years
Factor  Rating                          :    5  (  Worst   )  /  4  /  3  / 2   /  1  (  Best  )
Factor  Weightage                    :    5
Select                                       :   10 +   years
HQ                                           :   Rating x  Weightage  =  5  x  5  =  25


Factor    :   Type of Vehicle

Car  /  Scooter  /  Rickshaw  /  Bus   /  Train – Metro - Boat
Factor  Rating                          :  5 ( Worst  ) /  4   /  3  (  Fair )  /  2  (  Good ) /1 ( Best )
Factor  Weightage                    :    5
Select                                       :    Car
HQ                                           :   Rating x  weightage  =  5 x  5   =  25


Factor   :   Capacity

1 person  ( Worst )  /  2 persons   /  3-4 persons   /  5-50 persons  /   50  + persons (Best )     
Factor  Rating                          :    5 ( Worst   )   /  4  /  3 ( Fair ) /  2  /  1 ( Best )
Factor Weightage                     :    
Select                                       :     3 – 4 persons 
HQ                                           :     Rating  x  Weightage   =  3  x   5   =   15


Factor     :   Space Used

City Roads  /  City Metro  / Highways  /  Train tracks  /  Inland waterways
Factor Rating                           :    5  ( Worst ) /  4 / 3  / 2  /  1  (  Best  )
Factor Weightage                     :    5
Select                                       :    City Roads
HQ                                           :   Rating  x  Weightage  =  5  x  5   = 25


Factor      :   Time  of  use

 Worst  (  5  )                            >      8 am – 10 am  and  5 pm – 7 pm 
Bad    ( 4  )                              >     10 am – 12 noon and  7 pm – 9 pm
Fair     (  3 )                              >     12 noon  -  5 pm
Good  (  2  )                              >     9 pm – 12  midnight
Best   (  1  )                               >    12 midnight  - 8 am
Factor Weightage                     : 5
Select                                       : 8am – 10 am
HQ                                           : Rating x Weightage = 5x5 =25
  
                      


       

                                  

  





Factor     :   Where Used

Within city limits ( Worst  )  /   Outside City limits ( Best )
Factor   Rating                        :        5  (  worst )    /   1  (  Best  )
Factor  Weightage                   :       20
Select                                      :       Within city limits
HQ                                          :       Rating x  Weightage   =  5  x  20   =  100


Factor    :   State of use
 
In Motion    (  Worst  )  /    Stationary - Parked  ( Best ) 
Factor  Rating                          :      5  (  Worst  )    /   1  (  Best  )
Factor  Weightage                   :     20
Select                                       :      Moving
HQ                                           :       Rating  x  Weightage  =  5  x  20   =  100


Factor      :   If  parked

On Public Road  /  In Public parking plot  /  In Private garage 
Factor Rating                           :     5  (  Worst)   /   3  (  Fair  )    /   1   (  Best  )
Factor  weightage                    :    10
Select                                       :    None ( since car is in motion )
HQ                                           :   Not  Applicable


F   :    TRANSCORE  IS  TOTAL  OF  HQs  OF VARIOUS  FACTORS

So , what kind of vehicle are we tracking ?

Diesel    /   Privately owned   /   Carrying People   /  >  10  years  old  /   Car  /   3 – 4 persons   /  On City Roads  /  8 am – 10 am  /  Within city  /  Moving 

What is the total HQ  [  Harm Quotient  ]  of this vehicle  ? 

75  +  50  +  25 +  25  +   25   +   15   +  25  +  25  +  100   +   100   =  465

This is usage having almost the “HIGHEST TRANSCORE” (Transcore = Σ of HQs) 


G    :    SOME   MORE   EXAMPLES  OF    TRANSCORE

Now following usage is one yielding a “ Very Low TRANSCORE “ :

Li-ion Battery driven Electric  /  Government Owned  / Industrial Use  /  < 4 years old  / Boat  /  carrying 50 + persons  /  Inland Waterways /  operating between 12 midnight  to 8 am  /  Outside City limits / Moving

TRANSCORE =  30 + 10 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5  + 5 + 5 + 20 + 100  =  190


And here is one likely usage , yielding a “ Moderate  TRANSCORE “ :

Petrol  /  short hire  /  for  people  /  6 – 8 years old vehicle  / Rickshaw  /  capacity 3 – 4 persons  /  On City roads   /  operating between 12 noon and 5 pm  /  within city limits  /  moving

TRANSCORE  =  60 + 30 + 25 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 25 + 15 + 100 + 100 =  400


H  :  TECHNOLOGY  PLATFORM 

This will consist of the following :

Ø  NaviC : the Navigator


Satellite based “ Vehicle Tracking / Monitoring “ system, covering entire India.  This will track all 220 + Million vehicles , on 24x7 , taking one reading every 10 minute to compute the HQ of each vehicle. Final HQ for a given hour will be the average of the 6 readings / hour

Based on ( variable ? ) TRANS-TAX  formula , NaviC will , every hour , deduct appropriate amount from  FASTag  RFID embedded in each vehicle and transfer to designated account of concerned State Government

For details of how this will work , read :


Ø  All vehicles

 

All Vehicle manufacturers will be mandated to embedded the vehicles with FASTag RFID sensors and other sensors , listed at :

Ø Internet  of  Vehicles  [ 04 March 2017  ]


From these sensors , NaviC will be able to pick up DATA re : Energy Source – Type of vehicle – Capacity – Manufacturing date – Purpose – Emission levels  etc , from all vehicles – ships – planes – drones etc

Trucks transporting GOODS , ( and embedded with RFID FASTags into all carried packages ) will enable NaviC to integrate with e-way bill system , as described in :

Ø   A New Way to E-Way ?  [  15  July  2017  ]


From following news ( 19 Nov 2018 ) , it seems this suggestion is already under implementation :


Obviously each vehicle being driven ( in motion ) is driven by a driver with a DRIVING LICENSE

Just like E – PASSPORTS , driving licenses too can be embedded with RFID     sensors ( carrying full data of the driver ) . This data will be picked up by NaviC. 

It is safe to assume that most – if not all – of the passengers in a vehicle , are carrying smart phones with GPS feature . NaviC will be able to pick up this data and    figure out various kinds of statistics ( Ave no of passengers / Total no of passengers). 

CCTV cameras mounted on poles along city roads will be capturing the data ( images ) of the  HIGH SECURITY  vehicle number plates . I believe those CCTVs could be embedded with RFID sensors , which can relay such data to NaviC

      
·         Pre-loaded “ Payment Wallets “ [ FASTag ] , linked with owners’ Bank Accounts for automatic deductions every hour

·         Must have a dashboard which displays HQ MATRIX tabulation , with current STATUS of that vehicle highlighted , for ready reference by the driver / owner

·         Since it may not be possible to have HQ MATRIX tabulation displayed on the dashboard of a Scooter , there will be a Mobile App for the same


Ø  24x7 monitoring through

·         Central Control Room ( Central Transport Ministry )
·         State Control Rooms (State RTOs)

RTOs will be able to see on their monitors , HQ MATRIX of any vehicle ( registered in the State ) by simply clicking on the VEHICLE NUMBER appearing on the screen

To some extent , RTOs will function in much the same way as the Air Traffic Control Rooms at various airports , monitoring the movement of every vehicle ( including chain-snatchers riding a bike or running away after shooting )


I  :  HOW  WILL  THIS  SYSTEM  WORK  ?

Based on the continuous feedback ( of position of each vehicle ) by NaviC satellite, algorithm will do the following :

·         Calculate the “ TRAN-SCORE “ for each and every vehicle , every hour and publish it on a web site

·        Based on this “ TRAN-SCORE “ compute “ TRANS-TAX “ payable by each vehicle for each hour and automatically deduct it from “ Onboard Payment Wallet “ [ FASTag ]

·       If there is NIL balance in the Payment Wallet , immobilize the concerned vehicle , till payment gets made

·         Provide data to Insurance Companies for “ Dynamic “ insurance premiums payable


J    :   LINKAGE OF TRANSCORE  WITH  AMOUNT  OF  “ TRANS – TAX “  PAYABLE

Since TRANS – TAX is a replacement for the Road-Taxes ( except that it is payable and automatically deduced every hour ) , establishing a linkage would require , tabulating the road – taxes ( and other vehicle-ownership related taxes , if any ) for each type of vehicle in each State

I have not done this compilation but here is a suggestion :

Have 5 slabs of TRANSCORE as follows :

0-100  /  101–200  /  201-300  /  301-400  /  401–500

The lowest slab ( 0 – 100 ) will attract approximately the same amount of total ANNUAL ROAD-TAX that a given type of vehicle is currently pays . Call this BASE SLAB

Of course , other than a vehicle which is locked up in a garage for the entire year , no other vehicle which is being used regularly , can be in the BASE SLAB , throughout the year !

In fact , in the most likely scenario , a vehicle might have its TRANSCORE fluctuate all the way from ( say ) 50 to as high as 450 , during different times of the day  !

Linkage for the higher slabs can be :

·         101 –  200    >   150  % of the BASE SLAB tax
·         201 –  300    >   200  %
·         301  -  400   >    250  %
·         401  -  500   >    300  %

Idea behind such an upward SLIDING SCALE is to discourage usages which attract high HQ


K   :   HOW ELSE CAN A NAVIC BASED “ VEHICLE TRACKING – TAXING SYSTEM “ BENEFIT CITIZENS  ?

Following is a partial list :
o   Vehicle Arrival / Departure display Boards at Bus Stops – Train Stations – Airports – Sea Ports

Read : PUBLIC TRANSPORT AS A SOLUTION ?  [  15  Feb  2016  ]


o   Alerting Disaster Relief Teams – Hospitals – Ambulances – Relatives, during accidents

o   Powering Mobile Apps like Google Map for traffic density – time – alternate routes

Read  :   Making Yourself Obsolete ?                [  14  Feb  2016  ]


o   “Vehicles Population Database “ by Type – Age – Energy Source – Ownership etc

o   Generation of dynamic TRAFFIC MAPS in real time

o   Help plan new traffic systems ( Hyperloop / Pod Taxi / MagLev / Cable Ways etc )

o   And who knows someday NaviC may even be able to TRACK , each Rs 2000 currency
note with RFID sensor embedded into it?

Read :   Will China save the World ?                   [  21  Oct   2018  ]


L   :   TIME  FRAME  FOR  IMPLEMENTATION  OF  THIS  PROPOSAL


Event
Date
Concerned
Publish White Paper
01  Jan  2019
NITI  Aayog
Publish Online Survey
01  Feb   2019
NITI  Aayog
Publish Survey Results
01  March  2019
NITI  Aayog
Seminars ( Traffic Insti / Vehicle Mfrs )
01  April  2019
Shri Prabhu-Shri Gadkari

Present findings to State Trans Ministers
01  May 2019 
Shri Prabhu-Shri Gadkari   
Place order on ISRO ( System Design ) 
01   June  2019  
Transport Ministry

Receive System Design- Drawings  from ISRO 
01  July  2019 
Transport Ministry
Float tender for Software Design- Apps / HW
01  Aug 2019
Transport  Ministry
Place orders on Suppliers    
01  Sept  2019 
Transport Ministry

Mandate to Vehicle Mfrrs  for pre-installing of required RFID sensors / other sensors

01  Sept  2019 
Transport Ministry

All new vehicles to be duly pre- installed 
01 Jan  2020 
Vehicle Manufacturers

Pilot Testing ( without actually debiting RFID Fastag in vehicles )
Jan 20 – Mar 20

System Modifications ( SW + HW ) based on data from soft launch
April 20- June 20

Final launch  
Aug 20



  

M  :   WHICH  COUNTRY  IS  MOST  LIKELY  TO  IMPLEMENT  THIS  FIRST  ?

I have no doubt it will be CHINA

[  source : Beijing pioneering citizens' 'points' system critics brand 'Orwellian'   ]


Extract :

It has already began implementing a very similar system called “ Social Credit “ to reward or punish individuals ( 1400 Million citizens ) , to  improve city’s BUSINESS  ENVIRONMENT


Will  China  rule  the  Sky   ?

Added on 29 Nov :

If your Tesla knows where you are, China may too   


Added  on  04 Dec :


========================================================================

In India , we too can improve our own “  Ease of Doing Business “ rank from current 77 to ( possibly ) 27 , by implementing my suggestion

And without sounding Orwellian !


This blog is being emailed to the following :

   [   Shri Suresh Prabhuji  ]

   [  Shri Nitin Gadkariji   ]


















[  Institute of Urban Transport – India  ]
[  Director – IRTS ]
[  Institute of Road Traffic Education  ]
[   Institute of Transportation & Development Policy  ]







[  Asian  Institute of  Transport  Development  ]
[  Central  Institute  of  Road   Transport   ]
[   Chartered Institute of  Logistic  Transport  ]
[  Institute of Road and Transport Technology  ]
[  Indian Institute of Logistics  ]
[  Institute of Transport Economics  ]
[  National   Institute  of  Design  -  Ahmedabad  ]
[  IIT   -  Bombay   ]


Relevant  Readings  :

Transport Solutions ? Must try everything    [   25  Oct  2018   ] 



And here is confirmation of the logic behind my proposal  :

=====================================================

26  Nov  2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

=================================================

Re: PROPERT TAX based on RENT POTENTIAL


On Dec 5, 2018 8:58 PM, Hemen Parekh <hcp@recruitguru.com> wrote:


Dear Prof Davidoff ,


I just read about your concept at :



About 2 weeks back , I developed a very similar concept for a TRANS-TAX ( transport tax ) based on “ Harm Potential “ of all vehicles

I would be happy to receive your comments on :

Transport : an Integrated Logistic Plan ?




with regards,


hemen Parekh

=======================

Davidoff, Thomas <thomas.davidoff@sauder.ubc.ca>



Hemen


Thank you for this note. What you propose sounds like an integrated Pigouvian approach to transport pricing, which I agree would be great.


Regards,

Tom

==================================

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