UPA 3 or NDA 2 ? What is your Choice ?

Our country is facing a long list of Economic and Social problems

Many of these require enacting new legislation

Equal number require strict implementation of existing laws

Solutions of quite a few problems , need bold / innovative and often , unpopular steps demanding deep sacrifices from different sections of our society

All of these need,

Ø    A heightened  sense of co-operation ( National interest comes first )

Ø    Willingness to reach compromises ( win some  / lose some )

Ø    An acute sense of urgency ( get going now / improve along the way )

Unfortunately , during the past few years , hardly any progress could be made towards Political / Social / Economic reforms , since no single political party got an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha

And , unless the Indian voters understand the shortcomings of the Coalition Government and decide to give one party ( it does not matter  which ) , an absolute majority in the forthcoming 2014 national elections , we can expect repetition of the history !

No Government which has to hopelessly depend upon its coalition partners , can carry out the desired reforms

I believe , any major national party ( only Congress and BJP ? ) , which gets less than 275 seats in Lok Sabha , will continue to be blackmailed by its coalition partners

And it would make absolutely no difference whether Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi heads UPA 3 or NDA 2 , as the Prime Minister !

Either would be an impotent puppet of “ Coalition Dharma “ where corrupt partners dictate the shape of reforms !

It is simple

Either we give 300 seats to a single party or we continue to suffer for another 5 years !

Remember , an imperfect decision is any day better than No Decision !

·         hemen  parekh

Let the Sleeping Dogs lie !

I think it was Oliver Cromwell who said these famous words – may be in a different context , at a different time , in a different country

But right now , in our beloved India , our very own ( not so beloved ? ) political leaders seem to be telling the Supreme Court , the same thing !

Yesterday , Supreme Court dismissed a Central Government appeal to review its earlier ruling , which held ;

“ An elected representative stands disqualified from the date of his conviction in a criminal offence . The mere fact that the convicted politician has appealed against his conviction does not imply that he would continue to hold office  “

So , what will the Government do now ?

With solid , unanimous backing from ALL political parties , it will amend the Representation of People Act , to nullify the Court verdict !

Of Course , retrospectively from 15 Aug 1947 !

I am not surprised , given the following statistics compiled by Association for Democratic Reforms :----

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Party ………% age of MPs/MLAs with criminal charges

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BJP………………………. 31

Congress…………….. 22

NCP……………………….30

Shiv Sena……………. 75

RJD…………………………46

JD(U)…………………..  44

SP……………………….   43

Rest …………………….. 32-36

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Not having voted for past 30 years , I have a satisfaction of not having chosen myself , which party will torment / torture / murder me for next 5 years !

But of course , I will vote when I am allowed to cast “ Negative Votes “ !

When will India’s youth rise in revolt ?

·         hemen  parekh

Rejoice You Jobless !

In Aug 2013 , India’s Finance Minister announced a scheme called ,

“ National Skills Certification and Monetary Reward Scheme “

Here are the highlights of the schame :

Ø   To impart skills to 500 million youth by 2022 ( i.e. 50 million / year )

Ø  Of these,

·         Private Sector to train 150 million

·         18 Central Ministries to train 350 million

Ø  Scheme will provide employment as well as post-placement hand-holding for 1-2 years

Ø  A youth trained by an accredited institution will be required to appear for a national skill test before getting a certificate and reward of Rs 10,000 from the Government . Towards this , Govt has set aside Rs 1,000 Crores / year for 1 million trainees

Now , could the Minister be ignorant of the following ?

Ø  For some 62 years , we have a Apprentice Act ( 1951 )

Ø  Under this Act , private / public sector companies are required to train apprentices in different trades / crafts , for periods of 1 /2 / 3 years

Ø  At the end of such training , trainees are required to appear for their NCTVT exams and pass , to get certificates

Ø  Already thousands of Central / State Govt Industrial Training Institutions ( ITI ) are also imparting such skills training to youths who may or may not have passed 10^th standard

Ø  Most companies are using this Act/Scheme to engage such “ Trainees “ in place of permanent workers , to reduce labor costs

But the Minister does admit that , notwithstanding past efforts on such a massive scale , country as a whole , created only 20 million jobs in 5 years ( 2004-2009 ) !  A meager 4 million / year !

May be the Minister hopes that this time around , the Magic Wand of a reward of Rs 10,000 , will create  a miracle  !

Only his arithmetic does not seem to add-up !

Every year , 50 million trainees will add-up to a reward of Rs 50,000 Crores !

Hopefully , the arithmetic will get corrected in time for 2014 National Elections !

   hemen  parekh

Boosting Economy : Reducing CAD

Times of India ( 25 Aug 2013 ) presented following facts about USA prisons :


>    In 2010 , USA prison cost (  $ 80 billion as per Bureau of Justice Statistics )

>    Total Prisoners ...............  1.57 million

>    Average Cost / taxpayer ......................................    $  31,286

>    Ave Cost / prisoner ( in New York / 2010 )................$  60,000

>    Ave Cost / prisoner ( in New York / 2012 )............... $   167,731 ( Rs 115 lakhs / year )

>    Prisoner to Guard Ratio ..............................................2  :  1

>    No of prisoners in NY jails  .......................................12,287

>    Waiting time for case disposal  ...................................95  days


With these kinds of costs , our Commerce Minister should be able to persuade US of A , to " Outsource " their prison system to India , for an annual fee  of $ 40 billion and save 50 % of the cost ! Obama Administration will simply love this idea of cutting back on Government spending !

Here are a few benefits to India :

>   Construction of 10,00 prisons will give a huge boost to construction industry and generate employment for 10 million MNREGA beneficiaries ( creation of permanent capital assets )

>   1.57 million retired Jawans will get employment as prison guards ( personalized service ! )

>   CCTV / Electronic Surveilance industry will get a boost

>   Employment of millions of cooks / clerks / sweepers etc

>   A boom to " Prison-Supplies " industry

>   A huge foreign-exchange earning

>   If FDI in " Prison Industry " is allowed upto 100 % , that would make Foreign Institutional Investors to rush to India !

Clearly a win - win situation for both the countries !     



----  hemen 

Time for " Out of Box " thinking ?

Of late , there has been a lot of debate on TV / Newspapers etc , on ,


>    What has caused current economic crisis

>    What needs to be done

>    Who is to blame


The crisis manifests itself thru ,

>    Falling Stock Index

>    Weakening Rupee

>    Increasing Imports

>    Decreasing Exports

>    Widening  CAD / Fiscal Deficit

>    Sliding Industrial Production

>    Falling GDP

>    Rising Unemployment  ......  etc 


Economists ( experts and otherwise ) are offering all kinds of solutions - often contradictory 

Only thing , they all seem to agree upon is that , current Central Government , is largely to be blamed for the current mess !

I am not an economist and unable to offer " Expert Solution " 

But I do have following simple , non-expert solution :

" Through  " No Questions Asked " , appropriate Amnesty Schemes , enable trillions of Black Money rupees to come out in the open , to fund the Infrastructure projects "

Our Government estimates that we need to pump in , every year , $ 100 Billions , for the next 10 years , into infrastructure development , ie , $ 1,000 billions

Our Commerce Minister , Anand Sharma , estimates that the Indians are hoarding 31,000 tons of Gold ( equivalent of $ 1,400 billions )

Given our current economic climate , I dont expect any foreign individuals / companies / financial institutions etc to come forward to invest such funds into India

What is worse , I expect , once again in 2014 , a " Coalition Government " to rule the Centre - fully paralysed by its Coalition Dharma and incapable of taking tough decisions !

Apart from that $ 1,400 billion worth of gold , it would be safe to assume that another $ 14,000 billion worth of cash Black Money is also lying locked up in Safe Deposit Vaults of Businessmen / Politicians and Government Officers !

Grant them amnesty and a 10 %  ( non - taxable ) return on such Infrastructure investments for a period of 10 years , and we won't need any foreign exchange inflow !

Some will argue :

You will be punishing honest tax-payers and rewarding the cheats !

True 

But , in my opinion , this is the only practical / viable solution , in short term 

And , if incorporated in the Feb 2014 budget , it will get approved unanimously !

If those " Cheats " can help create 100 million jobs in 10 years , forgive them for their dis-honesty !

It is high time we did some " Out - of - the - Box " thinking !

Morality of creating jobs today , far outweighs the immorality of tax-evason in the past !


--  hemen




   

Going Up in Smoke ?

Yesterday , Times of India reported :

India's tobacco industry supports 38 million people ( 380 lakhs )

Every year , some 6 million ( 60 lakh )people die in India thru use of tobacco ( mostly cigarettes )

Of these , some 6 lakh die by inhaling smoke of other cigarette smokers

So what can we do to save these 60 lakh ?

Immediately close down entire tobacco industry ?

And jeopardize the lives of 380 lakh  ?

Obviously , we cannot adopt a mutually exclusive solution !

We must find a solution that , not only saves those 60 lakh but also continue to provide livelihood to 380 lakhs

That cannot be done in one - or even five - years , but it is entirely possible to solve this problem over , 20 years , as follows :

>   Thru appropriate legislation , phase out tobacco industry by 2033
>   Immediately stop expansion of existing units
>   Do not allow new units to come up
>   Place a recruitment freeze in tobacco industry - no fresh hiring at any level
>   No replacement for retiring employees , after 2018
>   Provide incentives to industry to redeploy capital / manpower in alternate industries - especially those industries with large scope for creation of new jobs
>   Give generous tax-breaks to industry to remain profitable , even as they wind-up operations
>   Provide incentives to put up new-industry projects in less industrialized regions
>   Provide incentives for re-training existing workers in new skills in demand by others
>   Subsidize Voluntary Retirement Schemes of industry

This is just a partial list . I am sure , if there is political will , experts will come up with many more viable suggestions

Question :

With national elections looming on the horizon , which political party would want to alienate , a lucrative source of election funding ? 

BACKGROUND SCREENING TRENDS INDIA

[DNA  Money  /  Feb. 02. 2011]

First Advantage is a background screening company. For the resumes that got referred to them for background screening during July – Sept 2010, their findings are as follows :

·     10.8 % of these resumes contained some or other discrepancy

·     39 % of these provided false info re: company name / employment status / reasons for leaving

·     35% gave incorrect tenure

·     13 % inflated their designations

·     11 % received negative HR / Supervisor feedback

·     2 % inflated their compensation

If the idea is to impress the recruiters, why don’t jobseekers

simply customize their resumes instead of faking the data?  

• There are no corrupt people in the village panchayat

• My suggestions to Punsari Village Panchayat

• Invite Management Institutes to prepare case-study

• Request Peter / Steven ( Authors ) to write a sequel to their excellent book,” Abundance: Future is better than you think “

• Build a 3 star hotel in village – then invite Panchayats from all over India to send delegations on Study Tours . One more source of income . The Panchayat has a name for it :

                      “ Development  Tourism “ !

For additional info , visit : http://deshgujarat.com/2012/04/28/gujarats-punsri-village-wins-best-gram-panchayat-award-nationally/

• Final Manifesto ( based on the feedback ) must be published , latest by June 2013 

• Criteria for the selection of the Core Committee members as also for the selection of party candidates MUST be made public , latest by Oct 2012 

• Since no individual can be expected to fulfill all the laid down criteria 100 % , once selected , those criteria where he / she failed , must be made public 

• In selection of members of Core Committees ( both Central and State ), as well as party candidates for election , 50 % reservation must be made for women 

• As far as possible , members of Core Committee ( Central and State ) , as also the party candidates , should be under 40 years of age

  

I hope others will come forward with similar suggestions and write to Anna Team

One last piece of “ Caution “ to Team Anna / Baba Ramdev :

You will fail miserably to bring about any change thru our Parliamentary system , unless your party gets an absolute majority and has to depend upon the Mulayams / Lalus / Mamtas etc ! Don’t even attempt !

And that will apply equally to Narendra Modi , should he become next PM

Coalition – Dharma is the worst kind of dharma!

Hemen  Parekh

Birth Rights ?

In Bihar , even ghosts can vote !

( Although I suspect that it is not much different in other states )

Election authorities have detected 7.6 million " Ghost " voters on the electoral roles of 243 assembly constituencies in Bihar

These are fake entries on the rolls - persons who dont exist but who have been enlisted as voters

I expect some Bihar politicians to say  :

" Are Bhai , jaane bhi do !

  What is a mere 7.6 million in Bihar's population of 104 million ?

  And how are ghost voters any different than those ghost accounts in Swiss Banks ?

  Both are the birth-rights of existing and would-be , MPs and MLAs ! "


The argument is unbeatable !

Learning from Anywhere / Everywhere

Writing in Hindustan Times ( 05 , Aug 2013 ) , Dhirendra Kumar makes some very interesting observations as follows :

>   In March , the Pakistan Government promulgated an ordinance under which , investors who buy stocks from April 1 ,2013 to March 31, 2014 will not have to declare the source of the funds , provided they hold the stock for more than 120 days.

>   On an average , stocks on Karachi Stock Exchange gained more than 30 % over the last 3 months


No doubt , this step has helped divert black money into productive investments in the economy

But , why restrict this very innovative measure to only stocks ?

Over the years , I have recommended similar " No Questions Asked " type of incentives for funnelling black money into ,

>   Building Educational Institutions

>   Building Infrastructure Projects

>   Health and Sanitation Projects

>   Eco-friendly Green Energy Projects


If done properly , such incentives will bring out , at least , Rs 50 lakh Crores and change the face of this country , without any need for direct or indirect foreign investment

A State of Mind ?

It is only reported ( HT / 7 Aug 2013 ) :


It is reported that Rahul Gandhi said that poverty is a state of mind and has nothing to do with the shortage of food , money or material things !

Obviously , a " Misquote " - something for which , our journalists are notorious !

An inside , reliable source tells me that once , when Rahul Gandhi undertook an overnight " fast " , he actually suffered " hunger pain " the next morning , despite many scientists saying that , pain is a state of mind !

Who knows better than him , that shortage of food , even overnight , is a real pain !

Give the guy a break !