Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 25 May 2017

Time to Reinvent for Hindustan Petroleum - Bharat Petroleum ?


 To understand why , read following report from CNBC Reporter's notebook :
-----------------------------------------------------------Be warned: $25 oil is coming, and along with it, a new world order


The world as we know it, will be no longer. The balance of power on a global scale will shift.  All in the next decade.

First and foremost, RethinkX co-founder and Stanford University economist and professor Tony Seba told CNBC's Street Signs that the rise of self-drive cars will see oil demand plummet, the price of oil drop to $25 a barrel, and oil producers left without the political or financial capital they have today.

It's a big call, right ? But if you look at what's behind Seba's premise, surprise, surprise, it comes down to money.

He says we are not going to stop driving altogether, just switch to self-drive electric vehicles, which will become a much larger part of the sharing economy.

And these electric vehicles are going to cost less to both buy and run.

"The day that autonomous vehicles are approved, the combination of ride hailing, electric and autonomous means that it's going to be ten times cheaper, up to ten times cheaper, to use a robot taxi, transport as a service car, than it is to own a car.  Ten times."

China and India are accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles. China wants to get electric, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars to account for 20 per cent of all auto sales by 2025, while India aims to electrify all vehicles in the country by 2032.

Also Monday, Toyota Research Institute ramped up their investment, teaming up with MIT Media lab and five other companies to explore block-chain technology for the development of driverless cars.

Trip Chowdhry, managing director and senior analyst at Global Equities Research, points out that while some people think Tesla is an Auto company, it is not.

"It is a cloud computing company, it's a machine and an artificial intelligence company, it is an app company, it is an energy company, and just an automobile is nothing more than a laptop on four wheels."

One point that is agreed, is that the auto industry will look vastly different in the future.

The question is, just how long will that change take, and who is going to successfully adapt.
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CONTEXT :

In my yesterday’s blog ( Pawan Goenka knows his Onions ) , I had quoted Pawan Goenka ( Chairman , Mahindra Electricals ) , as :

 Plus, instead of giving any more subsidies, the government should instead be steady on its policies for the next few years, which will give confidence to the OEMs, suppliers and others to invest in the segment “

He is confident to bring down the cost ( - and the selling price ) of Mahindra Electric cars by 20 %

He is not alone in pointing out that the Car Manufacturers  DO NOT need incentives to switch over from Petrol / Diesel to Electric cars

Yesterday’s Business Line , quotes Toyata Kirloskar Motor Vice Chairman , Shri Shekhar Viswanathan as saying :

“ We are saying that you don’t even have to offer incentives , but one should not discriminate against hybrid.

The strong hybrids we make run on electric . It behaves exactly like electric cars but it also runs on fuel

Whenever we have engaged with the government on promoting hybrid cars, there is a fear that we want to do it at the expense of the electric

Encouraging hybrid will lead to creating an eco-system for electric cars

Promotion of hybrid will, in fact, promote electric cars, and at the same time, bring down the cost of batteries

The automobile industry is heavily taxed anyway . Nearly 60 per cent of the total cost of car goes towards taxes “



QUESTION :

Apparently , both, Shri Goenka and Shri Viswanathan understand that manufacturing an Electric car will cost LESS than manufacturing a Petrol / Diesel car , simply because,

·         Petrol / Diesel car has 2000 parts

·         Electric car has 20 parts


·         Li-ion Battery prices ( per Kwh ) are expected to drop from current $ 270 to $ 150 by 2019 ( which , currently make up 50% - 70 % of car cost )

Obviously this has prompted Mahindra to announce ramping up its production of electric cars from current 500 / month to 5,000 / month, by 2019

There can be no doubt that lakhs of auto component manufacturers have realized that , unless they too “ re-invent “ , they will be dead by 2022 !

And auto repair shop owners will not get caught “ sleeping “ when the D-Day arrives !

What about Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum ?

Will they re-invent themselves or turn into another Air India ?

I have no doubt , Minister for Petroleum , Shri Dharmendra Pradhan , has a strategy  !


26  May  2017
   



Wednesday, 24 May 2017

Pawan Goenka knows his Onions !



There is no doubt about that



First , he reads following report :


“ India  Leaps  Ahead : Transformative Mobility Solutions for All “

( NITI Aayog  and  Rocky Mountain Institute  /  May 2017 )

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Then , he says ( DNA / 25 May 2017 / M&M charged up on Electric Cars ) :



Commenting on the practicability of implementation of Niti Aayog’s plan , Goenka said that it can happen only after 20 % reduction in price to make vehicle purchase viable on per kilometre basis



Plus, instead of giving any more subsidies, the government should instead be steady on its policies for the next few years, which will give confidence to the OEMs, suppliers and others to invest in the segment “ , he added



Further, the government should also make rules easier to register these vehicles as the company recently found it very difficult to get its eVerito Sedan car registered



“ In one of the states, it took about six months for us to convince RTO that there can be no CC to the engine of the electric car “ , Goenka said






An eminent industrialist like Shri Goenkaji – and an expert on Electric Cars – need not read my following suggestions ( earlier sent as emails to NDA ministers / Secretaries / Niti Aayog ) :






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·         Look  Before You  Leap




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·         From  Elon to  ION




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·         Morethan one Solution




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·         A  Take-Off Time  ?




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·         Internet  of Vehicles  ?




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·         Welcome  !  ElonMusk




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·         All  Charged Up  ?




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·         Piyush  Plan




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BUT, IF  SHRI GOENKAJI  WERE  TO  READ , HE  WOULD  SUPPORT  THESE  WHOLE-HEARTEDLY  !





25  May  2017



Tuesday, 23 May 2017

Will Tesla follow Apple ?



In a tweet , 2 days back , Elon Musk had expressed reservations re setting up of a EV manufacturing plant in India



He had presumed that such a plant would have to source , at least 30 % of the components locally – a condition , which he felt , was difficult to comply with



Yesterday , DIPP  has clarified ( of course , in a “ tweet “ for “ tweet “ fashion ! ) that , for setting up a local manufacturing plant , there is no such condition



What that tweet did not say :

Tesla is welcome to import any and all the components that it wants to – of course , after paying the applicable “ import duty “ – like all other foreign car manufacturers who have set up manufacturing operations in India , over the last 15 years



Now , ordinary mortals like me felt that this “ omission “ was due to the 140 characters limitations of a tweet !



But who could have suspected that the  REAL REASON  for this omission could have well been, today’s following announcement ?



“ GOVT READY TO OFFER APPLE , TAX SOPS IF IT MAKES MORE IN INDIA “



Economic Times provides following highlights :


·         Government agrees with Apple that some of the components that go into its products can’t be immediately manufactured in India


·         Govt has made a list of products that can be imported duty free till they are ready to be made locally


·         Govt has defined different components that will be ready to be made locally over the next three, five or seven years




Eco Times quotes , Aruna Sundararajan , Sec , Ministry of Electronics & IT as follows :


Apple’s road map is slightly different ( from ours ) and we are looking at harmonizing it


If they agree, then they don’t need any special concessions because then they will be falling in line with our manufacturing plan “



Govt has proposed to Apple , the following Phased Manufacturing Program ( PMP ) :


2017-18  :
Mechanics , Die-cast parts, Microphone and Receiver , Key Pad and USB cable



2018-19  :
Populated Printed Circuit Boards, Camera Modules, and Connectors



2019-20  :
Display Assembly, Touch Panels , Vibrator Motor and Ringer





Nothing revolutionary here to anyone who applied for an Industrial Manufacturing License , around 1970  !



At that time , one was required to submit a PMP , along with the IL Application



And , even provide the figures of increasing “ local content ( by value ) “ in the selling price of the product proposed to be manufactured locally ( indigenization  )



And even provide , figures of “ Anticipated Value “ of Import Licenses required for each phase ! And provide figures for components imported and products made / sold , each year !



One only hopes that what Govt proposes to Apple is made “ public “ on DIPP web site so that there is ,


·         Total transparency


·         No ambiguity  (  no scope for arbitrariness  / discretion  )


·         Absolute clarity



And if an identical policy frame work is prepared – and made public on DIPP web site – in respect of Electric Vehicles , there would be no need for Elon Musk to tweet ( his apprehensions ) , nor any need for a tweeted response !



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Dear Elon :



For immediate approval ( in 24 hours ) , pl submit your PMP as follows :



2017-18  :
Set up factory next to Mundra Port ( Gujarat ) to facilitate world-wide exports



2018-19  :
Source locally , Tyres / Chasis / Body / Electricals  / Windows / Dashboards ..etc



2019-20   :
Manufacture in your own factory , Li-ion Battery  / Wall-mounted Powerpack Storages /
Solar Roof Tiles



2020-21  :
Manufacture  RFID Sensors - Cameras – GPS locators



2021-22   :
Augmented Reality  Devices  /  Autonomous Navigation Devices ( Radar – Lidar  )





Now , it is very possible that neither Shri Gadkariji , nor Shri Goyalji , would be satisfied with such a slow PMP , spread out over a period of 5 years



They may , well request  Elon to cut it down to 3 years



And , if they do, I get a feeling that Elon would telescope the entire PMP , in 2 YEARS !



After all , Elon is the biggest proponent of :









24  May  2017