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Thursday, 4 October 2018

Hiding in Plain Sight ?

Today’s Economic Times carries following news report :

India facing 'economic crisis' due to huge oil imports: Transport minister

Extract :

Union minister Nitin Gadkari Thursday said the country is facing lot of "economic crisis" due to crude oil imports and need to reduce imports and increase exports

"It is time for the country to find out import substitute products and we have great potential for the use of ethanol, methanol, CNG and electric transportation system as solutions, Gadkari said after inaugurating the 'IndiaChem - 2018' conference organised by Ficci.

While blaming OPEC countries for the current increase in oil prices, he said, "One day they will find there is no market for crude oil."

"As this is the time for India to find solutions for import substitutes, the chemical industry must work towards finding the solutions to curb imports of crude oil at rising prices," he said.

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Dear Shri Gadkariji,

By admitting that “ the country is facing an ECONOMIC CRISIS , due to crude oil import “, no doubt you have disarmed the critics of the government

But your statement ( "One day they will find there is no market for crude oil." ), is unlikely to cause loss of sleep to the Oil Ministers of the OPEC countries

Reason ?

· It will take years ( if not decades ) for India’s chemical industry to gear up to manufacture those “ import substitutes “ [ Ethanol – Methanol ] in any meaningful quantities to reduce our imports of crude

· It takes 13,676 gallons of water to produce a single gallon of biodiesel from soybeans

· It takes 1700 gallons of water to produce one gallon of ethanol . Assuming a 30 gallon gasoline tank in a SUV , we calculate 51,000 gallons of water for the corn ethanol fill up ( Prof David Pimentel of Cornell University )

· India is facing a catastrophic WATER FAMINE , even for drinking purpose

[ sources :

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/04/water-wars.html / 8 April 2016 ]

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225386996_Sustainable_Development_of_Water_Resources_in_India

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/03/not-straightforward-answer.html

Dear Shri Gadkariji,

Allow me to suggest a better / cheaper / faster / tried and tested alternative ( while preserving our dwindling water resources ) , viz :

Solar Power

· Solar Power is anywhere from 123 to 550 times more efficient than biofuels

· Solar CHP ( Combined Heat and Power ) can convert sunshine 550 times more efficiently than sugarcane can

· Less than 1 per cent of India’s land mass will be sufficient for 1,000 GW of solar power generating capacity … There is sufficient waste land in the country for the same ( Masayoshi Son / SoftBank )

For specifics on “ How “ to generate those 1,000 GW within next 2 years , please find a few minutes to read ,

A Twin Tragedy

As in case of my earlier emails , this blog too is being sent to :

narendramodi1234@gmail.com;

38ashokroad@gmail.com;

ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in;

jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in;

piyush.goyal@gov.in;

nitin.gadkari@nic.in;

spprabhu1@rediffmail.com;

smritizirani@nic.in;

nsitharaman@nic.in;

ravis@sansad.nic.in;

sureshprabhu@irctc.co.in;

prakash.j@sansad.nic.in;

secy-ipp@nic.in;

amitabh.kant@nic.in;

shaktikanta.das@nic.in;

rsecy@nic.in;

adhia1981@gmail.com;

ceo-niti@nic.in;

atul-chaturvedi@nic.in;

d.pradhan@sansad.nic.in;

eam@mea.gov.in;

mosvks@mea.gov.in;

mnaqvi@sansad.nic.in;

mljoffice@gov.in;

minister-ca@nic.in;

ramvilas.paswan@sansad.nic.in;

gandhim@sansad.nic.in;

akumar-alpha@sansad.nic.in;

jpnadda@sansad.nic.in;

hm.moca@nic.in;

geete@sansad.nic.in;

simratbadal@yahoo.com;

ns.tomar@nic.in;

rmsingh@sansad.nic.in;

dr.harshvardhan@sansad.nic.in

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In addition , this time , I am also sending this email to the following :

assocham@nic.in

ficci@ficci.com

bjpnationalexecutive@recruitguru.com

siam@siam.in

acma@acma.in

PM’s Economic Advisory Council :

Some others :

IndianThinkTanks@recruitguru.com

vch-niti@gov.in

Trade Advisory Group :

Surjit Bhalla………………………………….. ssbhalla@gmail.com

S Jaishankar………………………………… psfs@mea.gov.in

Rajeev Kher……………………………….. Rajeev.kher@ris.org.in

Sanjeev Sanyal……………………… Sanjeev@sanjeevsanyal.com / contact@idfcinstitute.org

Shekhar Shah……………………………. ashah@ncaer.org

Vijay Chauthaiwale……………………. Vijai63.bjp@gmail.com

Pulak Ghosh………………………………. Pulak.ghosh@iimb.ac.in

Jayant Dasgupta………………………… ictsd@ictsd.ch / amb-indiawto@nic.in

Rajiv K Luthra……………………………… rajiv@luthra.com

Chandrajit Banerjee…………………… cb@cii.in

05 Oct 2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Wednesday, 3 October 2018

A Twin Tragedy ?

Yesterday ,

· a barrel of crude oil was selling for $ 85

· $ 1 , could fetch you , Rs 73.4

And petrol was selling for Rs 91 / liter in Mumbai

What would happen if ,

· Oil sells for $ 100 / barrel , and

· Rupee slides to $ 1 = Rs 100 ?

That would cost Rs 10,000 to buy a barrel of oil, which when refined, would yield between 40 – 70 litre of petrol ( depending upon the quality of crude ) . Let us assume, 50 litre of refined petrol from 1 barrel of crude

So , before refining, the RAW MATERIAL COST would be Rs 200 per litre of petrol !

For you , that would translate to Rs 450 per litre at the petrol pump !

You do not have to be an expert to guess what such a scenario could mean to our economy

Of course, a great majority of experts would assure us that there is a very low probability of such an event happening

But then , same persons would also rule out the existence of a BLACK SWAN , which author Nassim Taleb describes as follows :

* It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,

because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

* It carries an " EXTREME IMPACT "

* In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct

" EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it

explainable and PREDICTABLE

In brief ,

* Rarity

* Extreme Impact

* Retrospective Predictability

According to Taleb ,

* The highly expected " not happening ", is also a Black Swan

In “ Retrospection “ , here is what I wrote :

A Full Blown Crisis ? [ 25 April 2011 ]

World Bank president Robert Zoellick warns that the world is one shock away from a full-blown crisis.

Here are my guesses re: where that one shock may come from :

* European Invasion…………….. [ Libya ]

* Ethnic Massacres………………….[ Africa ]

* Population Explosion…………… [ India ]

* Regimes Overthrow………………[ Middle East ]

* Nuclear Nemesis…………………….[ Japan ]

* Economic Collapse…………………[ PIGS ]

* Overheated Economy…………… [ China ]

* Melting Snows…………………………[ Poles ]

* Terror Exports…………………………[ Pakistan ]

* Food Shortages……………………… [ Developing Countries ]

* Global Warming………………………[ Worldwide ]

Feel free to add your own.

There is no doubt that in 2011, a “ Black Swan “ event is around the corner !

Not being a later-day Nostradamus , I could not foresee :

· Brexit

· Trade Wars

But the issue is hardly what one could anticipate or not

Question is :

What do we do now to face this Twin Tragedy ?

Answer is :

Treat this impending calamity as a “ blessing in disguise “

Let us pull out all stops and turn to Solar Power

Let us advance our target date ( for reaching 100 GW ) from 2022 to 2020

Only yesterday , SoftBank CEO , Masayoshi Son said

“ As long as you have the land and sunshine, as long as you have eyes and ears listening to me, I will give you free power “

But he is offering that FREE power , AFTER 25 years , when he has recovered his investment from his existing / planned solar projects !

We , in India , just do NOT have the luxury to wait for 25 years !

If we want to survive the impending TRADE WAR ( unleashed by Trump and racing around the World like a Tsunami ), then we must have that FREE solar power by 2020 !

That is just one of the ways to turn India into a LOW COST ECONOMY

I have described that WAY in :

Unlimited Power : and round the clock ? [ 29 July 2016 ]

How Cheap can it get ? [ 14 March 2017 ]

Piyush Goyal is a Visionary ! [ 19 March 2017 ]

INDIA : the NEW LAND OF THE RISING SUN ? [ 01 April 2017 ]

Masayoshi Son said :

“ Less than 1 per cent of India’s land mass will be sufficient for 1,000 GW of solar power generating capacity … There is sufficient waste land in the country for the same “

Way back , on 02 Jan 2017 , I wrote ( sent as email to the Policy Makers ) :

[ https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/sun-our-soul-new-sos.html ]

One hour of Sunshine falling on India's land area of 3,000,000 square kilometers , can generate enough electricity to power our nation for ONE year !

Now , most of India gets 6 hours of Sunshine daily for some 300 days in a year !

So , as a nation , we get 1800 hours of Sunshine , every year

If we were to cover our entire land area ( of 3,000,000 sq km ) with Solar Panels , we could get enough electricity in one year ( ie: in 1800 hours ) , which will meet our power needs for 1800 YEARS ! ( about 5000 trillion Kwh ! )

But , at the most , we need to store the Solar power for a few days only ( even if Sun does not come out for a couple of days ) . Certainly not for 1800 years !

So , there is no need to cover up our entire land mass with Solar Panels

A very small fraction need be covered . Say, all roof tops in India ?

Why install small solar power plants on roof tops ?