Yesterday ,
·
a barrel of crude oil was selling for $ 85
·
$ 1 , could fetch you , Rs 73.4
And petrol was selling for Rs 91 / liter in Mumbai
What would happen if ,
·
Oil sells for $ 100 / barrel , and
·
Rupee slides to $ 1 = Rs 100 ?
That would cost Rs 10,000 to buy a barrel of oil, which when
refined, would yield between 40 – 70 litre of petrol ( depending upon the
quality of crude ) . Let us assume, 50 litre of refined petrol from 1 barrel of
crude
So , before refining, the RAW MATERIAL COST would be Rs 200 per litre of petrol
!
For you , that would translate to Rs
450 per litre at the petrol pump !
You do not have to be an expert to guess what such a
scenario could mean to our economy
Of course, a great majority of experts would assure us
that there is a very low probability of such an
event happening
But then , same persons would also rule out the
existence of a BLACK
SWAN , which author Nassim Taleb describes as
follows :
* It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the
realm of regular expectations ,
because nothing in the past can convincingly
point to its possibility
* It carries an " EXTREME IMPACT "
* In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us
concoct
" EXPLANATION " for its
occurrence , after the fact , making it
explainable and PREDICTABLE
In brief ,
* Rarity
* Extreme Impact
* Retrospective Predictability
According to Taleb ,
* The highly expected " not happening
", is also a Black Swan
In “ Retrospection “ ,
here is what I wrote :
A Full
Blown Crisis ? [ 25 April 2011
]
World Bank president
Robert Zoellick warns that the world
is one shock away from a full-blown
crisis.
Here are my guesses re: where that one shock may come from :
* European Invasion…………….. [ Libya ]
* Ethnic Massacres………………….[ Africa ]
* Population Explosion…………… [ India ]
* Regimes Overthrow………………[ Middle East ]
* Nuclear Nemesis…………………….[ Japan ]
* Economic Collapse…………………[ PIGS ]
* Overheated Economy…………… [ China ]
* Melting Snows…………………………[ Poles ]
* Terror Exports…………………………[ Pakistan ]
* Food Shortages……………………… [ Developing Countries ]
* Global Warming………………………[ Worldwide ]
Feel free to add your own.
There is no doubt that in 2011, a “ Black Swan “ event is around the corner !
Not being a later-day Nostradamus , I could not foresee
:
·
Brexit
·
Trade Wars
But the issue is hardly what one could anticipate or
not
Question is :
What do we do now to face this Twin Tragedy
?
Answer is :
Treat this impending calamity as a “ blessing in
disguise “
Let us pull out all stops and turn to Solar Power
Let us advance our target date ( for reaching 100 GW )
from 2022 to 2020
Only yesterday , SoftBank CEO , Masayoshi Son said
:
“ As long as you have the land and sunshine, as long as
you have eyes and ears listening to me, I will give you free power “
But he is offering that FREE
power , AFTER 25 years , when he has recovered his investment from his
existing / planned solar projects !
We , in India , just do NOT have the luxury to wait for
25 years !
If we want to survive the impending TRADE WAR ( unleashed by
Trump and racing around the World like a Tsunami ), then we must have that FREE solar
power by 2020 !
That is just one of the ways to turn India into a
LOW COST
ECONOMY
I have described that WAY in :
Unlimited
Power : and round the clock ? [ 29 July
2016 ]
How
Cheap can it get ? [ 14 March
2017 ]
Piyush
Goyal is a Visionary ! [ 19 March
2017 ]
INDIA
: the NEW LAND OF THE RISING SUN ? [ 01 April 2017 ]
Masayoshi
Son said :
“ Less than 1 per cent of India’s land mass will be
sufficient for 1,000 GW of solar
power generating capacity … There is sufficient waste land in the country for
the same “
Way back , on 02 Jan 2017 , I wrote (
sent as email to the Policy Makers ) :
[ https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/sun-our-soul-new-sos.html ]
One hour of Sunshine
falling on India's land area of 3,000,000 square kilometers , can generate
enough electricity to power our nation for ONE year !
Now , most of India gets 6 hours of Sunshine daily for some 300
days in a year !
So , as a nation , we get 1800 hours of Sunshine , every year
If we were to cover our entire land area ( of 3,000,000 sq km )
with Solar Panels , we could get enough electricity in one year ( ie: in 1800
hours ) , which will meet our power needs for 1800 YEARS ! ( about 5000
trillion Kwh ! )
But , at the most , we need to store the Solar power for a few
days only ( even if Sun does not come out for a couple of days ) . Certainly
not for 1800 years !
So , there
is no need to cover up our entire land mass with Solar Panels
A very small fraction need be covered . Say, all roof tops in India ?
As in
case of my earlier emails , this blog too is being sent to :
=====================================================
In addition , this time , I am also sending this email to the following
:
PM’s Economic Advisory Council :
Some others :
Trade Advisory Group :
Surjit Bhalla………………………………….. ssbhalla@gmail.com
S Jaishankar………………………………… psfs@mea.gov.in
Rajeev Kher……………………………….. Rajeev.kher@ris.org.in
Sanjeev Sanyal……………………… Sanjeev@sanjeevsanyal.com
/ contact@idfcinstitute.org
Shekhar Shah……………………………. ashah@ncaer.org
Vijay Chauthaiwale……………………. Vijai63.bjp@gmail.com
Pulak Ghosh………………………………. Pulak.ghosh@iimb.ac.in
Jayant Dasgupta………………………… ictsd@ictsd.ch / amb-indiawto@nic.in
Rajiv K Luthra……………………………… rajiv@luthra.com
Chandrajit Banerjee…………………… cb@cii.in
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