Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday 3 October 2018

A Twin Tragedy ?




Yesterday ,


·         a barrel of crude oil was selling for $ 85

·         $ 1 , could fetch you , Rs 73.4


And petrol was selling for Rs 91 / liter in Mumbai



What would happen if ,


·         Oil sells for $ 100 / barrel , and

·         Rupee slides to $ 1 = Rs 100  ?




That would cost Rs 10,000 to buy a barrel of oil, which when refined, would yield between 40 – 70 litre of petrol ( depending upon the quality of crude ) . Let us assume, 50 litre of refined petrol from 1 barrel of crude



So , before refining, the RAW MATERIAL COST would be Rs 200 per litre of petrol  !



For you , that would translate to  Rs 450 per litre  at the petrol pump !



You do not have to be an expert to guess what such a scenario could mean to our economy



Of course, a great majority of experts would assure us that there is a very low probability of such an event happening



But then , same persons would also rule out the existence of a BLACK SWAN  , which author Nassim Taleb describes as follows :



*  It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,
    because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility


*  It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "


*  In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct  
    " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it
    explainable and  PREDICTABLE

   

In brief ,


*   Rarity


*   Extreme Impact


*   Retrospective Predictability


According to Taleb ,


*   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan






In “ Retrospection “ , here is what I wrote :

A Full Blown Crisis ?  [  25  April  2011  ]

World Bank president Robert Zoellick warns that the world is one shock away from a full-blown crisis.

Here are my guesses re: where that one shock may come from :

*   
European Invasion…………….. [ Libya ]

*   
Ethnic Massacres………………….[ Africa ]

*   
Population Explosion…………… [ India ]

*   
Regimes Overthrow………………[ Middle East ]

* 
Nuclear Nemesis…………………….[ Japan ]

* 
Economic Collapse…………………[ PIGS ]

* 
Overheated Economy…………… [ China ]

* 
Melting Snows…………………………[ Poles ]

* 
Terror Exports…………………………[ Pakistan ]

* 
Food Shortages……………………… [ Developing Countries ]

* 
Global Warming………………………[ Worldwide ]


Feel free to add your own.

There is no doubt that in 2011,
a “ Black Swan “ event is around the corner !


Not being a later-day Nostradamus , I could not foresee :


·          Brexit

·          Trade Wars


But the issue is hardly what one could anticipate or not



Question is : 

What do we do now to face this Twin Tragedy  ?




Answer is : 
 
Treat this impending calamity as a “ blessing in disguise “



Let us pull out all stops and turn to Solar Power



Let us advance our target date ( for reaching 100 GW ) from 2022 to 2020



Only yesterday , SoftBank CEO , Masayoshi Son said 

:
“ As long as you have the land and sunshine, as long as you have eyes and ears listening to me, I will give you free power “



But he is offering that  FREE power , AFTER 25 years , when he has recovered his investment from his existing / planned solar projects  !



We , in India , just do NOT have the luxury to wait for 25 years !



If we want to survive the impending TRADE WAR ( unleashed by Trump and racing around the World like a Tsunami ), then we must have that FREE solar power by 2020 !



That is just one of the ways to turn India into a LOW  COST  ECONOMY



I have described that WAY in :


Unlimited Power : and round the clock ?        [  29  July  2016  ]


How Cheap can it get ?                                 [ 14  March   2017 ]

 

Piyush Goyal is a Visionary !                          [ 19  March  2017 ]

 

INDIA : the NEW LAND OF THE RISING SUN ?  [  01 April 2017 ]

 

 

Masayoshi Son said :

 

“ Less than 1 per cent of India’s land mass will be sufficient for 1,000 GW of solar power generating capacity … There is sufficient waste land in the country for the same 

 

 

Way back , on 02 Jan 2017 , I wrote ( sent as email to the Policy Makers ) :

[ https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/sun-our-soul-new-sos.html  ]


 

One hour of Sunshine falling on India's land area of 3,000,000 square kilometers , can generate enough electricity to power our nation for ONE year !


Now , most of India gets 6 hours of Sunshine daily for some 300 days in a year !


So , as a nation , we get 1800 hours of Sunshine , every year


If we were to cover our entire land area ( of 3,000,000 sq km ) with Solar Panels , we could get enough electricity in one year ( ie: in 1800 hours ) , which will meet our power needs for 1800 YEARS ! ( about 5000 trillion Kwh ! )


But , at the most , we need to store the Solar power for a few days only ( even if Sun does not come out for a couple of days ) . Certainly not for 1800 years !


So , there is no need to cover up our entire land mass with Solar Panels


A very small fraction need be covered . Say, all roof tops in India ?



 

As in case of my earlier emails , this blog too is being sent to :






































=====================================================


In addition , this time , I am also sending this email to the following :









PM’s Economic Advisory Council :








Some others :






Trade Advisory Group :


Surjit Bhalla………………………………….. ssbhalla@gmail.com

S Jaishankar…………………………………  psfs@mea.gov.in

Rajeev Kher………………………………..   Rajeev.kher@ris.org.in

Sanjeev Sanyal………………………   Sanjeev@sanjeevsanyal.com  /  contact@idfcinstitute.org

Shekhar Shah…………………………….    ashah@ncaer.org

Vijay Chauthaiwale…………………….   Vijai63.bjp@gmail.com

Pulak Ghosh……………………………….   Pulak.ghosh@iimb.ac.in

Jayant Dasgupta…………………………   ictsd@ictsd.ch  /   amb-indiawto@nic.in

Rajiv K Luthra……………………………… rajiv@luthra.com

Chandrajit Banerjee……………………  cb@cii.in


04  Oct  2014

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

 

 

 



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