Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 29 December 2022

Forecasting the Far Off Future

 


 

Context :

India can become $40 trillion economy by 2047.. [ Indian Express / 30 Dec 2022 ]

Extract :

India can become a $40 trillion economy by 2047 in a sustainable and stable manner, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) chairman and managing director Mukesh Ambani said on Thursday.

 

MY  TAKE :

 

Ø  Horoscope of a Nation ?....................... [ 26 April 2017 ]

 

Extract :

 

So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;

  

·         Type  / Nature of event

 

 ·         Time period within which it will happen

  

·         To whom it will happen / affect.

 

 Now examine :

 

       Ø  TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-

 

Practically, these can run into thousands.

 

       Ø  TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-

 

An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.

 

       Ø  PERSON AFFECTED :-

 

There are 6 billion humans on this earth.

 

Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS & TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “

Probability ” attached to each !

 

This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !

 

 

·         Something or Else ( event) is likely to happen to,

 

 ·         Someone or Else ( Person), at ,

 

 ·               Sometime or other ( Time)

 

 As long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL, in respect of

 

              Ø  An Individual

 

                  Ø  A given time-period

 

             Ø  Precise nature ( of what will happen),

  


You are safe  !

 

You just cannot be faulted !

 

BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  30  Dec  2022

Wednesday, 28 December 2022

Better Sense Prevails

 


 

A few months ago, some govt department ( I believe it was Transport Ministry ) , came out with a rule which implied that I can sell my car ( as pre-owned ), ONLY to a registered Car Dealer – and not directly  to another private buyer

That made me write following email to our Cabinet Ministers :

 

Ø  Sorry, I cannot sell my house to YOU ! ………………….[ 20 Sept 2022 ]

Extract :

Under the new rules,

#  the vehicle sale will be executed through a dealer, and

#  there will be no link between the original owner and the new buyer.

 ==============================================

Following news report appearing in today’s news papers, does NOT seem to prohibit a person from selling his ( pre-owned ) car to another private buyer

Of course, the meticulous procedure prescribed in this report is highly welcome :

 

Ø  Pre-owned vehicles: Government notifies new rules for used car / bike dealers

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  29 Dec 2022

 

 

 

How Did We Get Our Priorities Wrong ?

 


These days night temperatures all across North India are hovering around ZERO degree in many cities

For want of sufficient Night Shelters, poor homeless people are forced to sleep on footpaths , without a roof / walls to stop the freezing winds

Most of them, including children, do not even have warm clothes or blankets to cover them

Dozens ( mostly old - sick - children ) are dying due to bitter cold

After 75 years of freedom ( from the British ), we ,as a society, miserably failed to provide them freedom from bitter cold. We just do not have enough SHELTER HOMES

There is no point in engaging in a BLAME GAME. No amount of " trying to fix the blame " can build thousands of Night Shelters in a few days ( - even as , 3 years ago, the Chinese built several 1,000 bed COVID hospitals, within 7 days ! )

Instead of blaming this Govt or that Govt / this party or that party, what is needed is a CONSRUCTIVE SOLUTION which can be implemented quickly

MY SUGGESTION :

Under Govt's Vehicle Scrapping Policy, thousands of old ( > 15 years ) PUBLIC TRANSPORT BUSES are about to get " scrapped " ( to be replaced by Electric Buses )

Let the Authorities remove the seats from these buses and convert these into MOBILE NIGHT SHELTERS , to be parked where poor homeless persons are occupying footpaths

If a reader agrees, let him / her forward this message to all contacts

Regards,

hemen parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com / www.hemenparekh.in / 29 Dec 2022

Tuesday, 27 December 2022

Daylight Robbers ? Some Yes !

 


Context :

Banks wrote off ₹10 lakh cr in last 5 yrs: FM  /  FortuneIndia  / 20 Dec 2020

 

 

Extract :

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) wrote off ₹10,09,511 crore in the last five financial years.

The data shows wrote off :

#  SBI …………………………………………….₹ 19,666  crore,

#  Union Bank of India (UBI), …….. ₹ 19,484  crore

#  Punjab National Bank ……………… ₹ 18,312  crore

 

She also attributed the decline in the NPAs to the government’s strategy of recognition, resolution, recapitalisation and reforms.

With regard to the details of the top 50 loans that were written off, the RBI says it doesn't maintain account-wise information on written-off loan accounts, said the minister.

In FY 22,

#  State Bank of India (SBI) have written off bad loans worth 7,782 crore

#  Punjab National Bank (PNB) at 3,441 crore

#  Union Bank of India at 2,750 crore. 

 

The list of wilful defaulters as on March 31, 2022,

#  Mehul Choksi's Gitanjali Gems Ltd ……………….7,848  crore,

#  Era Infra Engineering Ltd ……………………………. 5,879  crore

#  Concast Steel and Power Ltd ………………………. 4,596  crore.

#  ABG Shipyard Ltd……………………………………………3,708  crore

#  Frost International Ltd owes ………………………….3,311 crore.

 

 

MY  TAKE :


It is a pity that the Cabinet Ministers to whom following email was sent, chose to ignore the same !


Ø  NPA ? or is it NPB ? …………………………………..[ 08 March 2016 ]

 

Extract :


NPA = Non Performing Assets ( bank loans not being repaid )

 

NPB = Non Performing Bankers  ( bank officers not being prosecuted )

 

Recently , Supreme Court asked RBI for a list of entities , who are defaulting on loans of Rs 500 Crores or more

 

Suddenly , a few banks started publishing  lists of their own loan defaulters

What is the big deal ?

 

Several thousand Cooperative Housing Societies in Mumbai , have been , routinely publishing on their Notice Boards ( equivalent to the web sites of the banks ? ), names of society-members who have failed to pay their monthly society charges ( includes Municipal Property Tax ) - including cumulative arrears

 

They have been doing so for years . I don't know if Model Standing Orders or Cooperative Society Act requires this

 

But no member seems to object this act of " Name to Shame " !

 

What has prevented banks from routinely declaring on their web sites :

 

*  Complete list of all loan-takers ( Companies/ Individuals/ Trusts / NGOs etc  )

 

*  Full details of loans ( amount / duration / interest rate / collaterals / repayment schedule / sureties etc  )

 

*  Names of bank officers who scrutinized and sanctioned loans

 

*  Cumulative arrears ( shown graphically )

 

*  Other entities ( including other Companies / Individuals ) inter-connected with the defaulters

 

*  Details of Notices sent / Court cases filed / Recoveries made / Blacklisting done , etc

 

 

After all , most banks have PUBLIC as shareholders and therefore , need to be covered under RTI Act

 

If a bank is owned ( partially or totally ) by any government ( Central or State ) , it is covered under RTI

 

So , why this secrecy ? Why this dragging of feet to take prompt action against defaulters ?

 

I recently heard of a Cooperative Housing Society in Hyderabad which has solved the problem of members defaulting on payment of society charges

 

In members' flats , Society has installed ELECTRONIC DIGITAL PREPAYMENT METERS

 

On 1st of each month, a member must key-in the amount ( of Society charges ) in the Meter and authorize deduction from his bank account ( like Mobile Wallet , in collaboration with many banks concerned )

 

Failure to do so will immediately result in automatic cutting off the electricity and water supply to that flat !

 

I suppose Andhra / Telengana State Cooperative Society Act permits this. Why progressive Maharashtra does not ?

 

It is no Rocket Science to extend the application of this  SIMPLE TECHNOLOGY  to bank loan defaulters !

 

By automatic freezing of personal bank accounts of ALL those who signed the loan document ( takers & givers ) , the moment any repayment installment becomes overdue by ONE DAY ?

And automatic / instant revoking of PASSPORT , without having to approach Supreme Court  ?

 

I hope RBI governor , Shri Raghuram Rajan , gets to read my blog and floats a Request for Proposal to Infosys / Wipro / TCS etc

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 28 Dec 2022

 

Related Readings :

 

Ø  Rs. 200,000 per debtor ? ………………..[ 16 Aug 2011 ]

 

Ø  Passports…………………………………………. [ 07 March 2018 ]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Ø  Bank  Re-Capitalization  ? …………………[  23 June 2015 ]

       Extract :

      Here is a layman's understanding :



>   Bank executives give Rs 4 Lakh Crores worth loans to   Industrialists / Businessmen ( who , sometimes happen to be close relatives / friends )

 

 
>   Bankers " forget " to examine past records of loan-repayments by these individuals 


 
>  Banks do not share among themselves info about " black-listed " borrowers



>  Banks " forget " to inquire if a loanee is a " Benami " company



>  Banks do not incorporate stringent clauses in loan agreements (on purpose )



>  Banks adopt " Forget & Forgive " approach to defaulters



>  For loan recovery , bankers wait for other  bankers to take the lead



>  Before taking action , bankers check-out with people in power



>  When sinking under the burden of NPA , bankers run to Government of India to bail them out through " Bank Re-Capitalization "


 
>  Government oblige by giving money to stressed banks, so that they can survive



>  Government rationalize its bail out by saying, " depositors must be protected " . Sounds so reassuring  !



>  Government then goes out and raises taxes ( direct + indirect ) to balance its books  ( Current Account Deficit ? )


   



In a nutshell :



>  Eventually , honest tax-payers foot the bill, one way or the other 


>  7,000 + loan-defaulting swindlers spend vacation in Switzerland with family ( and their politician friends ) - till they are ready to borrow more !

 


>  Bankers vie with each other to " Re-Schedule Payments " and advance fresh loans to pay off old loans ( Rs 4 lakh Crores of NPA ).

 

    If EU / IMF can do this for Greece , why cannot we ?


  

>  Government will take pride in " Bold Banking Reforms "( to please IMF ? )



>  As a Nation , we are very compassionate !  We cannot let any institution die !


    We are obsessed with keeping it alive at any cost . We must , forever , keep it alive with artificial ventilation / blood transfusion !

 


    It is time to re-think : 



    When a person or an Institution just cannot be kept alive , it must be allowed to die , in a dignified way !

 


    Would it not be far better to protect the small bank-depositors by returning their deposits , rather than

  

    infuse Rs 4 lakh Crores into these banks , by way of re-capitalization ?

 

 Am I missing out on something that economists know better ?

 


Keep an eye on slippages in rejigged assets: RBI to banks  ………….. BL  /  27 Dec 2022

 

 

 

 

Monday, 26 December 2022

Carrying Coal to New Castle

 


 

 

About a hundred years ago, Britain exported coal all over the world, from its many productive coal mines

I believe during the time Margaret Thatcher was the Prime Minister of UK , following wide-spread strikes of coal-miners, these mines were all closed down

 

But during their hay-days, it would be a laughing proposition if someone talked about exporting coal to UK . Hence came the idiom “Carrying Coal to New Castle “

 

It is a totally different story now with Britain seriously considering to import coal , ever since UKRAINE WAR cut off its gas supplies from Russia

In a similar vein, I asked Google :

Can i bring yogurt from India to USA ?

 

Google returned 39 Million links, with the topmost link preceded by following remarks :

 

Yes, the United States generally allows travelers to bring cultured milk products like yogurt into the U.S. when arriving on a flight from a foreign country.



Can You Bring Yogurt On A Plane? - StillTasty

https://www.stilltasty.com › articles › can-you-take-yogurt...

 

Then I asked the same question to ChatGPT ,  which gave following answer :


“Yes, you can bring yogurt from India to the United States. However, you should be aware of the rules and regulations that apply to the import of food products into the United States. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulate the import of food products into the United States to ensure the safety of the food supply.

To bring yogurt from India to the United States, you will need to meet the following requirements:

1.     The yogurt must be packaged and labeled in accordance with U.S. regulations.

2.     The yogurt must be accompanied by a valid import permit issued by the USDA.

3.     The yogurt must be accompanied by a certificate of origin and a certificate of analysis, which must be issued by a government-approved laboratory in India.

4.     The yogurt must be free of any contaminants or adulterants, and it must meet all U.S. food safety standards.

5.     The yogurt must be properly packaged and labeled for international shipping.

It is also a good idea to check with the embassy or consulate of the United States in India for any additional requirements or restrictions that may apply to the import of food products from India. “

 

================================================

 

Then I asked ChatGPT :

“ How would you compare these ( 1 ) " Carrying yogurt to USA " with ( 2 ) " Carrying coal to New Castle " ? “


Following was its reply :

Carrying yogurt to the United States and carrying coal to New Castle are two very different activities that are subject to different rules and regulations.

1.     Carrying yogurt to the United States:

·         Yogurt is a food product, and as such it is regulated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ensure the safety of the food supply.

·         To bring yogurt from India to the United States, you will need to meet certain requirements, such as obtaining a valid import permit from the USDA, obtaining a certificate of origin and a certificate of analysis from a government-approved laboratory in India, and ensuring that the yogurt is properly packaged and labeled for international shipping.

2.     Carrying coal to New Castle:

·         Coal is a mineral resource that is primarily used for energy production.

·         To carry coal to New Castle, you will need to comply with any rules and regulations that apply to the transportation of minerals, including safety regulations and environmental regulations.

·         You may also need to obtain permits or licenses from relevant authorities to transport coal to New Castle.

Overall, the main difference between these two activities is the type of commodity being transported and the corresponding regulations that apply to its transportation. Yogurt is a food product that is subject to food safety regulations, while coal is a mineral resource that is subject to transportation and environmental regulations.

 

 

The same question , when entered in Google Search Bar , returned following answer :

 

Your search - How would you compare these ( 1 ) " Carrying yogurt to USA " with ( 2 ) " Carrying coals to ... - did not match any documents.

Suggestions:

·         Make sure that all words are spelled correctly.

·         Try different keywords.

·         Try more general keywords.

·         Try fewer keywords.

 



With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  / 27 Dec 2022


Related Readings :


Ø  My Experiments with ChatGPT……………………….. [ 26 Dec 2022 ]

Ø  Google , watch out – here comes ChatGPT ! ….[ 26 Dec 2022 ]