Wednesday, 26 April 2017

Horoscope of a Nation ?



DNA ( 25  April  2017  ) carries a news report as follows :




“ Niti aayog envisions houses , vehicles , ACs for all by year 2032  “



The government think tank Niti Aayog has envisaged a new India in which all citizens in 15 years will have houses with toilets , two wheelers or cars , power , air conditioners and digital connectivity



The India 2031-32 : Vision , Strategy and Action Agenda “ , also visualises a fully literate society with universal access to health care



It also called for having a much larger and modern network of roads , railways , waterways , and air connectivity and a clean India where citizens would have access to quality air and water



It envisioned that per capita income would increase three-fold to Rs 3.14 lakh in 2031-32 from Rs 1.06 lakh in 2015-16



“ We must transform India into a prosperous , healthy , secure , corruption-free , energy abundant , environmentally clean and globally influential nation “ , the presentation said






Readers are requested to interpret  this  VISION  DOCUMENT  in terms of my following
note , dated  04 May 2008 :

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Horoscope  & Other ( Equally Fictitious )  Stories



Most People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.


 So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.



And that makes everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.



This human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the business of astrologers & futurologists thrives.



And what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?



They rely on “ Theory of Probability. ”


They know that “events” recur with regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some others.



Some events have a greater probability of occurrence than some others.



No one may have taken the trouble to accurately compute the “ frequency of occurrence ( probability) ” of each type of event, in advance.



But every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future ( if probability is low).




E.g.


For certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW with a probability of 0.99, such as


·         A dacoit / murder in the city


·         A bus-accident


·         A boat capsizing etc.


Whereas, probability of a Political leader getting assassinated TOMORROW will be a very low, 0.001 ,



But probability of one such assassination taking place within next 10 years, goes up to 0.9.



So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;


·         Type  / Nature of event


·         Time period within which it will happen


·         To whom it will happen / affect.


Now examine :


Ø  TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-

Practically, these can run into thousands.



Ø  TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-

An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.



Ø  PERSON AFFECTED :-

There are 6 billion humans on this earth.



Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS &
 TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability ” attached to each !



This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !


·         Something or Else ( event)

is likely to happen to,


·         Someone or Else ( Person)

At

·         Sometime or other ( Time)



As long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL, in respect of


Ø  An Individual


Ø  A given time-period


Ø  Precise nature ( of what will happen),



You are safe  !


You just cannot be faulted !


BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !



Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence / faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !



They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict future ( did it not come true for them ? )



Then these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month) about your magical powers.



And the remaining 95% for whom, the “ Prediction” did not come true,



Ø  Either forget that they ever read the prediction  OR


Ø  Believe that it was not “ meant” for them ,  OR


Ø  Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction (about them ) will come true ( the flame of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).



But these 95 % never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as predicted !



They don’t want to look silly !



They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific, irrational predictions !



So only the good-word spreads. 



Only the “positive” stories spread.




So each such story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper to  see, what future holds for them.



Forgotten within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely) similar did happen by the end of the day.


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27  April  2017








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