Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do.

There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Wednesday, 26 April 2017

Horoscope of a Nation ?



DNA ( 25  April  2017  ) carries a news report as follows :




“ Niti aayog envisions houses , vehicles , ACs for all by year 2032  “



The government think tank Niti Aayog has envisaged a new India in which all citizens in 15 years will have houses with toilets , two wheelers or cars , power , air conditioners and digital connectivity



The India 2031-32 : Vision , Strategy and Action Agenda “ , also visualises a fully literate society with universal access to health care



It also called for having a much larger and modern network of roads , railways , waterways , and air connectivity and a clean India where citizens would have access to quality air and water



It envisioned that per capita income would increase three-fold to Rs 3.14 lakh in 2031-32 from Rs 1.06 lakh in 2015-16



“ We must transform India into a prosperous , healthy , secure , corruption-free , energy abundant , environmentally clean and globally influential nation “ , the presentation said






Readers are requested to interpret  this  VISION  DOCUMENT  in terms of my following
note , dated  04 May 2008 :

-------------------------------------------------------


Horoscope  & Other ( Equally Fictitious )  Stories



Most People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.


 So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.



And that makes everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.



This human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the business of astrologers & futurologists thrives.



And what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?



They rely on “ Theory of Probability. ”


They know that “events” recur with regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some others.



Some events have a greater probability of occurrence than some others.



No one may have taken the trouble to accurately compute the “ frequency of occurrence ( probability) ” of each type of event, in advance.



But every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future ( if probability is low).




E.g.


For certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW with a probability of 0.99, such as


·         A dacoit / murder in the city


·         A bus-accident


·         A boat capsizing etc.


Whereas, probability of a Political leader getting assassinated TOMORROW will be a very low, 0.001 ,



But probability of one such assassination taking place within next 10 years, goes up to 0.9.



So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;


·         Type  / Nature of event


·         Time period within which it will happen


·         To whom it will happen / affect.


Now examine :


Ø  TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-

Practically, these can run into thousands.



Ø  TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-

An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.



Ø  PERSON AFFECTED :-

There are 6 billion humans on this earth.



Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS &
 TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability ” attached to each !



This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !


·         Something or Else ( event)

is likely to happen to,


·         Someone or Else ( Person)

At

·         Sometime or other ( Time)



As long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL, in respect of


Ø  An Individual


Ø  A given time-period


Ø  Precise nature ( of what will happen),



You are safe  !


You just cannot be faulted !


BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !



Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence / faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !



They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict future ( did it not come true for them ? )



Then these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month) about your magical powers.



And the remaining 95% for whom, the “ Prediction” did not come true,



Ø  Either forget that they ever read the prediction  OR


Ø  Believe that it was not “ meant” for them ,  OR


Ø  Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction (about them ) will come true ( the flame of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).



But these 95 % never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as predicted !



They don’t want to look silly !



They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific, irrational predictions !



So only the good-word spreads. 



Only the “positive” stories spread.




So each such story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper to  see, what future holds for them.



Forgotten within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely) similar did happen by the end of the day.


--------------------------------------------------------




27  April  2017








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