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Saturday 27 February 2016

A Tale of Two Tracking !

State of Maharashtra has a total of 50 prisons , of which 9 are Central jails

Between them , they house 25,000-30,000 inmates

The country as a whole, has some 1,387 prisons , housing approx 356,000 prisoners

Maharashtra government has decided to introduce " chip or bracelet " tracking system for prisoners and is in the process of signing an agreement with the Israeli Government under which , private Israeli companies will implement this " tracking " project

Why all this rush for a technology driven reform ?

Because , in March 2015 , five criminals had fled from the Nagpur jail after climbing boundary wall !

But no one in government seems to be really bothered with the following :

* There are billions of high currency notes ( Rs 500 / 1000 ) in circulations

* A whole lot of these are unaccounted BLACK MONEY income, on which no tax got paid

* Many more billions are stashed in secret bank lockers , which occasionally "escape" for purchase of gold/land etc

* High currency notes worth Rs 34.4 lakh*crore have "climbed" national boundaries and escaped without "trace" !

* Today , Government has absolutely no mechanism to " track / trace " such escapes

* In India more than 90% of all payments ( for goods and services ) are in CASH , quite a few , using these high

currency notes

* If payments are made in CASH , no GST / Service Tax can be collected

* But if the payments get made through official channels ( ECS / Bank Transfers / Credit Cards / Mobile Wallets

etc ) , then GST can be collected ( or a BTT - Bank Transaction Tax , can be levied )

Now , instead of " dehumanizing " 30,000 prisoners with a RFID-embedded collar around their necks ( as it

happened with Rajat Gupta of McKinsey fame , a few weeks back in New York ) , just so that you can track some

5 prisoners , would it not be much better / wiser to :

* Discontinue paper-based currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 ( and withdraw in 6 months , with advance notice )

* Introduce plastic currency notes of Rs 500 / 1,000 which are embedded with RFID sensors ( far thinner than a human hair ! ) , always broadcasting their presence to Internet of Things ( IoT )

I believe Govt is launching ONE BILLION plastic currency notes of Rs 10 denomination , later this year

Let us make this a PILOT PROJECT , by embedding these with RFID sensors .

We will learn a lot in " tracking " !

* Assign to each such note, a IP V 6.0 address , linked to its unique note number

* Set up a IT-enabled Technology Platform which will constantly monitor any accumulation of Rs 500 / 1000

RFID embedded notes in excess of Rs ONE CRORE within an area of ONE square meter

Why waste time in tracking a few escaped prisoners ?

Why not leverage technology to track those billions of notes and their criminal owners who are destroying our economy ?

Mr Arvind Subramanian ( Chief Economic Adviser ) should have recommended this in his ECONOMY SURVEY , instead of suggesting to expand tax net to cover 23 % of the Indian citizens , against current 4 %

I believe , humble RFID sensor can get ten times more tax revenue than expanding tax-net to 23 % of citizens !

Incidentally :

Should Shri Jaitley-ji propose expanding the tax-net as suggested , in his budget speech tomorrow , do you know what would happen ?

You don't need to be a Nostradamus to foresee BJP losing ALL state and central elections for the next 10 years !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

28 Feb 2016

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Friday 26 February 2016

Putting Cart before the Horse ?

An article in Hindustan Times ( 24 Feb 2016 ) reports :

" ...the government has now asked Industrial Corridors to award infrastructure and manufacturing projects only after the bidding companies show they have acquired the land needed "

I presume that , at this stage , based on the bid amount ( and other qualifying criteria ) , one bidder has been selected from among those who submitted bids , for a specific project to be located on a given piece of land , close to the Industrial Corridor

But the order ( award ) will not be placed till such time he produces " proof " of having acquired the land , which could , well belong to a dozen farmers !

Obviously , no industrialist will buy a specific piece of land in advance , from a dozen farmers , not knowing whether his bid will succeed or not !

But now that he has won the bid , he must approach those 12 farmers for the purchase of the land and enter into serious negotiations

Since the farmers " know " that an industrialist will approach them , ONLY if he has won the bid , they are in a much better bargaining position !

They can bargain collectively and quote a very high price - may be a price far in excess of what the winning industrialist had budgeted for , in his bid !

The negotiations can take weeks or months to conclude an agreement or may even fail , forcing the industrialist to back out of his commitment

That may require selecting the next ( highest ? ) bidder and repeat the process all over !

The whole idea of awarding only AFTER acquisition of required land was to speed up the project implementation

But in this idea, I see a danger of endless going in circles !

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION ?

Consider following excerpt from my email to Shri Nitin Gadkariji , on 23 March 2015 :

[ I think there is a simple solution to the concerns expressed by the farmers . Please consider the following :

* Each project will be tied to a specific SPV , created for that purpose only

* In the first instance , affected farmers will create a " Cooperative Society "

* Co-operative Society will issue shares to each land-donor farmer , in proportion to the QUANTITY / VALUE of the land donated by him

* In turn , Co-operative Society will receive shares in the SPV , equal to the value of the land + a cash compensation equal to 4 times the value of the land

* Farmer's shares of Cooperative Society cannot be sold in open market before 5 years but can be gifted to wife / Children

* Shares of Cooperative Society in the SPV itself cannot be sold for next 10 years

* The " Cash-Value Compensation " received by the Co-operative Society ( ie 4 times the land value ), will be deployed as follows :

* To be immediately paid in cash to the farmers............ 2 times

* To be deposited in the Jan-Dhan Account of each farmer as FIXED DEPOSIT ( with 10 @ interest )....2 times ]

Since each State is in serious - and healthy - competition with other States to attract investments , those which offer an equitable and just solution to the farmers as well as to the industrialists , will succeed

And there will be no need to pass any Land Acquisition Bill in Rajya Sabha !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

27 Feb 2016

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Thursday 25 February 2016

TRASH the CASH ?

A report in Business Line ( 25 Feb 2016 ) , reads :

" Centre wants Indians to abandon cash and make digital payments "

The report lists following measures announced by NDA govt on 24 Feb :

* Withdrawal of surcharge / service charge / convenience fee on card / digital

payments , currently imposed by govt departments

* Payments beyond a prescribed threshold only in card / digital mode

* Rationalize telecom service charges for digital financial transactions

* Promote mobile banking

* Create assurance mechanisms for quick resolution of fraudulent transactions

* Review payment ecosystem in the country

To make it easy for people to make digital payments , Government has already installed :

* Electronic Clearing Service Scheme

* National Electronic Funds Transfer

* Real Time Gross Settlement Scheme

* Direct transfer of Subsidies to bank accounts of benefeciaries

* Providing RuPay debit cards

* Allowing setting up of Payment Banks

Surely , all of these steps will make it EASY for people to GRADUALLY switch over to making digital payments

But , if the HIDDEN AGENDA of the Government behind all of these initiatives , is to reduce / eliminate the scourge of BLACK MONEY ( always and entirely CASH ) , then the only initiative which will COMPEL people to " TRASH the CASH " and move over to digital payments in a HURRY, is my oft-repeated suggestion as follows :

* Discontinue paper-based currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000

* Introduce plastic currency notes of Rs 500 / 1,000 which are embedded with RFID sensors ( far thinner than a human hair ! ) , always broadcasting their presence to Internet of Things ( IoT )

* Assign to each such note, a IP V 6.0 address , linked to its unique note number

* Set up a IT-enabled Technology Platform which will constantly monitor any accumulation of Rs 500 / 1000

RFID embedded notes in excess of Rs ONE CRORE within an area of ONE square meter

If there is a political will , technology can bring this revolution in 6 months !

Can we expect Shri Jaitley-ji to conclude his Budget speech on 29 Feb , with this announcement ?

The applause that follows will be heard around the World !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

26 Feb 2016

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Age of Automation

Two days back , White House Council of Economic Advisers ( CEA ) released a report which predicts the probability ( likelihood ) of automation taking away jobs from humans

As per CEA Chairman Jason Furman , the risk of having your job effectively taken over by a robot " varies enormously based on what your salary is "

In other words, the more skilled , creative and high-earning you are , less likely your job will be taken over by automation

CEA's preditions ( of jobs being taken over in USA ) , are as follows :

* For hourly wage below $ 20............................. 83 % chance

* For hourly wage between $ 20 and $ 40........... 31 % chance

* For hourly wage above $ 40............................ 4 % chance

PROOF

In USA , manufacturing jobs have declined by more than 7.2 million ( or 37 % ) , since 1979

In 1965 , manufacturing accounted for 53 % of the US economy

By 1988 , it accounted for for only 39 %

In 2014 , it accounted for less than 9 %

In India , manufacturing's contribution to GDP is currently 16 % , which NDA government wants to raise to 25 % by 2020

WAS THIS FORESEEN ?

Way back in 1950 , Norbert Weiner wrote in his famous book ( The Human Use of Human Beings ) :

" Let us remember that the automatic machine , whatever we think of any feelings it may have or may not have, is the precise economic equivalent of slave labor

Any labor which competes with slave labor, must accept the economic conditions of slave labor

it is perfectly clear that this will produce an unemployment situation, in comparison with which the present recession and even the depression of the thirties will seem a pleasant joke

This depression will ruin many industries - possibly even the industries which have taken advantage of the new potentialities

However , there is nothing in the industrial tradition which forbids an industrialist to make a sure and quick profit , and to get out before the crash touches him personally "

No wonder , Father of Cybernetics , had foreseen the future !

LESSONS FOR INDIA ?

* At a salary of $ 2 / hour ( approx Rs 28,000 per month ) , can our " Semi-Skilled " workers compete with the " automatic machines " of USA ?

{ Any labor which competes with slave labor, must accept the economic conditions of slave labor }

* At a monthly income ( not " Salary " ) of $ 10 / hour ( approx Rs 138,000 per month ) , can our highly skilled engineers , take over those " creative " US jobs ?

I am sure they can if we shift our focus from " Job seekers " to self - employed , " Job creators " ( There is just NO WAY , we can create 12 million jobs per year )

IS THIS POSSIBLE ?

Of course ! Just abolish Personal Income Tax and witness the miracle !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

26 Feb 2016

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Wrong Language / Wrong Message

Whereas there are many sympathizers of the " Jat Andolan " that rocked the country recently , let us ponder the following :

WRONG LANGUAGE

* Some anti-social elements among the agitators destroyed property worth

Rs 34,000 Crores . 19 persons got killed . Delhi stood paralyzed

WRONG MESSAGE

* Not yet but should the Committee headed by Shri Venkaiah Naidu find a way

to provide to the Jats , a quota of reservations , then that would send out the

following message to dozens of other economically backward communities

which are currently agitating for their own reservation quotas , in a peaceful

manner :

" When it comes to getting your rightful dues , violence is the only language

that this government understands ! Bapu's " Satyagraha " may have given us

freedom from the British in 1947 , but it does not work well with our own

elected representatives in 2016 "

Believe me , Patidars of Gujarat and Marathas of Maharashtra , are going to

watch every move / deliberation / statement of Shri Naidu !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

26 Feb 2016

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Tuesday 23 February 2016

Exporting Manpower ?

Our exports have been falling, month after month , for the past 18 months in a row

But this is not unique to India

With rapidly shrinking World Trade , exports of nearly all countries around the world are falling

Barring a few exceptions , economies of all the countries are declining

So , it came as a surprise to read a news report ( BL / 20 Feb ) , that , despite the fact that Malaysia has 2.1 million registered foreign workers and 1.7 million illegal foreign workers , it signed a deal with Bangladesh to hire another 1.5 million Bangladeshi workers , over the next 3 years !

As expected, local trade unions have criticized this deal

Now let us not start putting together a strategy for Manpower Export , despite the fact that of all the countries in the World , India has the largest number of its citizens working abroad ( legal + illegal )

I believe , close to 22 million persons of Indian origin , with some 7 million in Gulf Countries

But trade unions and political parties everywhere are vehemently opposed to migrant workers who take away jobs from local residents

Even EU , which accepted some 1 million refugees from war-torn Syria / Iraq / Afghanistan , in 2015 , have started repatriating what it terms as " Economic Migrants " seeking " better life " in EU , as distinct from political refugees

But that is not stopping 3000 such " refugees "(political or economic), from forcing their way into EU , every day !

Within India , we have seen in the past ( and continue to witness , currently ) , economically backward people ( euphemism for " poor " ) , migrating to cities in other relatively affluent States , in search of livelihood , occasionally . causing resentment among local citizens

So far , such inter-state migrations have not caused any serious problem because of our Unifying forces of religion / language / culture / heritage / traditions and our Constitution

But with annual addition of some 12 million persons (including some 3.5 million graduates ), to our legions of job seekers , things could get ugly - especially since neither the Public nor the Private sector , can create this many jobs every year !

We need to find ways in which these millions can become " Self Employed "

I hope that each and every announcement that Shri Jaitley makes in his budget speech on 29 Feb , would lead to creation of " Self Employment " in the economically backward States of India

With most of our States being the size of many EU countries , we may not be in a position to Export Manpower , even across our State boundaries , forget across the International borders !

For Indian Federal structure to hold together , we must work on the double to reduce inequality between States !

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

24 Feb 2016

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Tech World turning imagination real

In ( 23 Feb 2016 ) Hindustan Times , this is the title of a news report in section " Technology "

A part of it talks about " 3D Printed Couture " in following words :

" Designer Anouk Wipprecht has created an open-source movement , which lets you work with them , and millions of other people across the World , to print your own 3D clothes , while another designer Danit Peleg boasts of designing textiles and manufacturing clothes , all from her home printer

With several techniques added to 3D printing to create wearable technology, your clothes can even react with your body needs to bring in new colour , or even change shape as you gain / lose weight "

Now spare a few minutes to read my following blog , posted just 10 days back ( 13 Feb 2016 )

I am no time-traveler and maybe it is time to stop looking beyond to day !

A BBC TV report last evening talked about the Chinese Manufacturers having developed machines that can carry out traditional Indian " Chikankari " embroidery on a saree within one hour what takes poor women of Lucknow, close to a hundred hours !

And they are dumping these sarees in the Indian Market at one fourth the price !

Some 5 lakh poor women in UP are in danger of being obsolete !

DIPP is planning to equip some 100 " Innovation Centres " at University Campuses across India , with 3D printers

How about some Indian Start Up developing a technology to 3D Print " Chikankari " sarees and make these software / hardware available to these poor women, to beat the Chinese at their own game ?

hemenparekh.in/ blogs

24 Feb 2016

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13 Feb 2015

HOW FAR SHOULD WE SEE ?

The rate at which innovations are continuously happening all around us , we need not look very far !

In the internet age , the " Slow " ( to adapt ) will get overtaken by the " Fast & Nimble "

Even the " Big " will get left behind by the " Small "

How long before textile scientists come up with a fabric that does not require " Stitching " to make garments ?

May be a fabric that can be " welded " or " glued " to form a garment ?

And a automated assembly-line where :

* Fabric is fed at one end

* Glue ( or a welding wire ) , is fed at intermediate stages

* Fabric gets cut into pieces as per online personalized " designs " ordered by visitors of Amazon / Flipkart /

Snapdeal etc

What would this do to the manufacturers of domestic / industrial sewing machines and threads ?

And then what would happen to such automated garment-making assembly lines when people install 3D Printing Machines in their homes ? - machines that can print garments as per designs downloaded from Net ?

Far fetched ?

Not if you have heard of Shanghai-based company WinSun , which recently constructed 10 concrete houses ( 5 stories each ) , overnight , using a 3D Printing Machine which is 6 meter tall , 10 meter wide and 40 meter long !

If invited to set up country-wide operations in India , I have no doubt WinSun can transform our Housing Construction Industry thru technology transfer

In turn , NDA Government can fulfill its promise to construct 50 million affordable houses by 2020

I hope this message reaches Shri Narendra Modi / Shri Venkaiah Naidu / Shri Nitin Gadkari

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hemenparekh.in / blogs

16 Feb 2016

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