Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday 15 January 2017

Cards Vs Mobile Wallets



The battle lines are drawn


Ever since demonetization announcement of 08 Nov , the all-consuming debate is :

"  In the end , who will win ?  Credit-Debit cards  or  Mobile Wallets  ? "


In the past few days , following reports / statements / statistics , have appeared in News papers / Social Media / TV channels :

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BILL  GATES ( TOI / 19 Nov 2016 )

" The US is not as digitized as Kenya is or Tanzania . I use credit card sometime. I use the cell phone quite a bit now but it's still a mixed thing and you know it is expected that the plastic card will go away in US in the next 4-5 years and then it will be just your cell phone "



According to sources privy to the meeting, Gates told Minister of IT , Ravi Shankar Prasad that  smart phones are better instruments than plastic cards and payment banks are more sustainable approach for financial transactions



AMITABH KANT ( CEO - NITI Aayog ) [ ET / 11 Jan 2017 ]

" Cards would lose their relevance as Indians will make transactions using just their thumbs through Aadhar-enabled apps on merchant phones connected to biometric readers "



SHARAD SHARMA ( co-founder , iSPIRT ) [ ET / 11 Jan 2017 ]

"  UPI transactions will exceed debit card transactions in a matter of months

BHIM is one of 30 such apps available today . It is one of the MOST LIMITED apps in terms of functionality . In terms of smoothness , it is well designed . But it is meant to be a REFERENCE app

Even as millions throng the mobile app and feature phone function, competitors ( including traditional banks ), have to exceed this THRESHOLD or BENCHMARK. Even if some banks don't, they and their customers are not losing out because they are on the UPI platform

By April , I expect  almost 150 apps, including those by traditional banks

In India, digital companies complain about TWO FACTOR authentication . But with every added layer of authentication, the system reduces security risks. This is India-first by accident because elsewhere , the incumbents are very strong : VISA and MasterCard in the US, or Alipay in China

UPI is the SMTP of payments , and BHIM is only the shape of things to come "



DEWANG NARELLA ( CEO , Atom ) [ ET / 11 Jan 2017 ]

"  One of the reasons for for the faster adoption of cards is the better user-experience

PoS terminals can complete a transaction within 8 seconds and give customers a frictionless experience . Unless the new forms of technology can offer faster check-out experience, I do not see mass adoption of emerging payment solutions

Banks are in the process of installing 1 million terminals by March "



T R RAMCHANDRAN ( Group Country Manager, VISA ) [ ET / 11 Jan 2017 ]

"  Much of India still needs to be convinced about digital payments

Digital payments make only 5 % of the current personal consumption expenditure in India . This is not a zero-sum market, where if someone does one transaction more, someone else will do one transaction less . We should be focused on displacing cash "



ABHIJIT BOSE ( CEO , Ezetap )

"  It should be left to the consumers to choose their mode of transaction . It's the consumer who will decide which solution to use . When we in the public and the private sector start making pronouncements, we don't have knowledge of what consumers want " 



SAKET MODI ( Co-founder , Lucideus Tech )


"  If a mobile wallet has ONE FACTOR authentication ( you need to login and transact and just key in the password ),

and , credit card has TWO FACTOR ( swipe plus password ),

BHIM has THREE FACTOR authentication

What made WhatsApp so popular was that the user ID was the phne number.

 Similarly, the user ID is the basis to authenticate with the bank

The THIRD FACTOR is the four digit UPI PIN, which only the user knows. Even if it is possible to replicate the SIM card or a phone gets lost, transactions cannot be done unless the PIN is known "



A P HOTA ( MD and CEO , NPCI )

" In our country of a billion mobile phone connections ( active connections could be around 800 million ) , nearly two-thirds of mobile phones are simply feature phones without data connectivity . We have built USSD-based mobile payment system with 51 participating banks. BHIM integrated USSD infrastructure with UPI "



BUSINESS LINE ( 13 Jan 2017 )

After initial response, demand for EESL's PoS machines turns tepid . Procurement tender may be scrapped if entities that evinced interest do not respond

This is the largest tender for PoS machines in the world ( 10 lakh ) and EESL's success in this tender would mean virtually doubling the number of PoS machines in the country.

India , at present, has 14 lakh PoS machines , of which only 50,000 are mobile



HINDUSTAN  TIMES ( 16 Jan 2017 )

 @   PoS transactions as a % of total Card transactions...... 22 %

@   No of PoS terminals per million people ( 2015 )............ 693 ( 45000 in Australia )


*  ARUNA SUNDARARAJAN ( Secretary , MeiT ) [ Hindustan Times / 16 Jan 2017 ]


"  We are looking at a lot of new technologies that enable cashless transactions with less investment on infrastructure

We are also looking at enabling digital payments with the use of VOICE BASED and NFC-based technology. 

The Centre is in talks with technology providers that can enable a mobile phone to become a MOBILE POINT-OF-SALE ( mPoS )

We are in talks with new companies like mPayGo , ToneTag and other start ups "



NEERAJ TANDON ( Co-founder and CEO, mPayGo )

"  All that merchants need to have is a smart phone and a Net connection to process card payments "



KUMAR ABHISHEK ( Founder , ToneTag )

"  The major concern for the Government is that only 20 % of the entire cell phone-using population in India has smart phones

With ToneTag, in case of smart phones, the transfer is done by a single touch using SOUND WAVES


In feature phones, users need to dial a toll-free number, and the payment instruction is carried out through interactive VOICE RESPONSE "


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As to , " WHO WILL  WIN ? " , find my own assessment at  :



    {  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/rip-credit-card.html  }

*   WhenBHIM is here, can ARJUN be far away ?    

 

    {  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/when-bhim-is-here-can-arjun-be-far-away.html  }   

 

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 16  Jan  2017

 

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

 







   

Thursday 12 January 2017

Where Angels Fear to Tread !



Hindustan Times ( 12 Jan 2017 ) carries following report :

The income tax department has started a crackdown on “suspicious” bank lockers after searches and raids revealed that these were being used to stash illegal cash and jewellery.

Tax officials were seeking details of lockers operated multiple times, especially in co-operative banks

 “Benami bank lockers are being monitored to check ownership as these have been used for illegal activities and hoarding illegal cash and wealth,” a government official said.

“However, it must be reiterated that it is aimed at addressing the black money issue and there will be no sealing of bank lockers, as we have already said.”

A benami or ghost, locker is operated by someone other than the person in whose name it is issued. There have been instances when a holder has agreed to keep cash or jewellery for a family member, an acquaintance or even a senior at work.

Most of the “suspicious” lockers, so far, have been reported from smaller towns, though such abuse couldn’t be ruled out in the cities as well, sources said.

Research, real-time information from multiple sources and information collected during raids helped them zero in on such accounts, sources in the department said.

Tax sleuths also don’t rule out the possibility of city residents using lockers in small towns to escape scrutiny. Several banks offer locker services to customers who do not hold accounts with them.

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In the eyes of IT department , what makes a locker , a  SUSPICIOUS  locker ?

Apparently , the following criteria :

*  Location in a co-operative bank branch in a small town
*  Acquired after 08 Nov 2016 ( even without having a savings account )
*  Owned by a person living in a far off city
*  Operated frequently

I am sure , there are millions of lockers which may " satisfy " the above mentioned criteria and it would require , not only a MASSIVE collection of DATA , but also an Artificial Intelligence based software to conclude ( with a HIGH PROBABILITY ) that a given locker can be classified as SUSPICIOUS . Not an easy job !

And , even after all this , that DATA and AI software , cannot tell IT department ANYTHING about accumulation of Rs 2000 ( NEW ) notes in those lockers ( the BLACK MONEY that IT department is after ! )

In case of a KYC bank account , a bank manager can tell the IT department exactly ,

*  Amount of money in that account , at any time
*  What amounts were withdrawn / deposited and when ( and in Rs 2000 notes )


But , in case of a Locker , bank manager has absolutely NO CLUE as to its content !

Should IT department " raid " those  lockers based on nothing more concrete / positive than a mere SUSPICION ?

Would not such indiscriminate raids harass many honest locker-owners and hurt their reputation in the eyes of their community ?

Over the years , we have heard of " IT raids " being carried out on homes / offices of prominent / rich persons , where CASH to the tune of CRORES of rupees have been seized

We also know that nothing has come out of these raids and those matters have been " amicably settled " !

I believe IT department has embarked on something which is not only foolhardy but atrocious , to say the least

Only yesterday, Supreme Court threw out a case against our PM by saying :

" A mere entry in a computer ( CM , Gujarat ) cannot constitute sufficient evidence to launch an inquiry "

Then , how could mere " Suspicion " be enough to raid a locker ?

Could IT / ED  have a " FOOL-PROOF " method to convince the courts , why they chose to raid a particular locker ?

Sure !

All that the Government / RBI has to do is to embed all high denomination notes with a RFID sensor

Since RFID chips would announce their presence through internet , it would be a simple matter for IT / ED to set up a Technology Platform ( IndiaStack ? ), to zero-in, locate any locker  anywhere in India , containing Rs 2000 notes , aggregating ( say ) , Rs 1 CRORE

When those high denomination notes start shouting ( 24*7 ) ,


{  http://myblogepage.blogspot.in/2016/08/help-please-rescue-me.html  }

both , the BLACK MONEY and the CORRUPTION , will get eliminated , PERMANENTLY !

However , instead of embedding RFID chip, what is more likely to happen is the removal of Mahatma Gandhi's photo from those notes . You know why !

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13  Jan  2017


www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Tuesday 10 January 2017

We are not bribing the Voters !



On 01 Jan , Election Commission announced poll schedule for 5 States , and set in motion Model Code of Conduct


A day later ( or earlier ? ) , NDA government announced that Union Budget will be introduced in Lok Sabha on 01 Feb ( 3 days before Goa polls begin )


Two days later , 16 opposition parties , led by Congress , appealed the EC to tell the government , to postpone the Budget , till after state elections get over


Reason ?


" Suppose NDA government announces freebies / goodies in the budget , targeted to " bribe " the voters to vote in favor of BJP ! How can they introduce Budget AFTER coming into force , the Model Code of Conduct ?


VERY SNEAKY !  VERY UNETHICAL !  VERY IMMORAL !


Don't BJP know the following ?


On 22 Feb 2014 , following Supreme Court directives , the Election Commission , revised , " Model Code of Conduct " , containing guidelines on what kind of poll promises , political parties can incorporate in their poll manifestos

GUIDELINES

*   Parties shall make only those promises which are possible to be fulfilled



*   It is expected that manifestos also reflect the rationale for the promises
     and broadly indicate the ways and means to meet the financial requirements for it



*   Party in power shall stop advertizing for publicity of achievements "


Now , look at the Poll Manifesto which Congress released yesterday for Punjab polls :



" The manifesto promises

*   loan waiver and free power to farmers, 

*   a stipend of 2,500 per month for unemployed youth,

*   free smart mobile phones for youth, 

*   free textbooks for all children,

*   free houses to homeless dalits / SCs / OBCs and 

*   ONE JOB IN EVERY FAMILY.


If elected, Capt. Amarinder Singh said his government will create,

*   25 lakh jobs within the next five years,

*   crack down on drugs and corruption, 

*   introduce a new industrial policy, and 

*   end the VIP culture, while 

*   bringing in sweeping economic reforms and

*   total transparency in governance. "


Congress is telling the EC :

"  You see , how honestly our Manifesto abides by the Model Code of Conduct ? "


Apparently , India happens to be a country where politicians can still ( after 68 years ) , fool ALL the people, ALL the time !


Or , at least think so  !


We will know in Feb / March !

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11  Jan  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs


Sunday 8 January 2017

Taking Stock



As two months get over since announcement of demonetization , it is time to take stock of the situation


Here is a brief list of OBJECTIVES ( some stated at the outset and a few invented as time passed ) , and actual ACHIEVEMENTS :


SHORT TERM OBJECTIVE :

To unearth all BLACK MONEY and suck it into the Banking System ( viz: Rs 500 / 1000 notes )


Achievement  :

Although there is no finality as to the VALUE of old notes that have returned , it does appear that , by and large , this OLD STOCK of " Black Money in CASH " , has been extinguished ( or got cleverly converted into WHITE , if your friendly bankers obliged you for just 30 % ! )


I wonder what Shri Arun Jaitleyji meant by saying yesterday :

" Black Money did not change its color merely by getting deposited in bank "



He has very little supporting evidence to prove in a court that Rs 4 lakh*crore, deposited by individuals, in 60 lakh bank accounts each , was indeed  BLACK  before getting deposited !


Through 1138 searches and issue of 5184 notices , what has the government " achieved " in past 2 months ?

Seizure of Rs 200 crore worth of NEW notes and jewellery ! And referring 526 cases to CBI / ED !


Even as people have forgotten 5 / 15 years old, ongoing court cases , involving corruption  of thousands of crores of rupees , in case of A Raja / Kanimozi / Dayanidhi Maran / Subroto Sahara / Suresh Kalmadi / Lalu Yadav / Coal Scam / Telgi Scam / Bofors Scam etc  !


Going by this history , how many " decades " will CBI / ED take to file 526 FIRs ?

Then there is, a somewhat belated realization that much of the OLD STOCK was in the form of Gold / Jewellery / Land / Benami Property etc , which , just cannot be " demonetized " in short term . 



MEDIUM TERM OBJECTIVE :

To permanently STOP future generation of BLACK MONEY

  
Achievement :

Total failure !

If anything , with introduction of Rs 2000 note , this has been made twice as easy !

There is only ONE WAY . Implement,


{  http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/for-want-of-nail.html }



LONG TERM OBJECTIVE :

To move India to a LESS CASH economy , through an aggressively marketed system of DIGITAL PAYMENTS ( Cards / ATM / Wallets / Electronic Clearances / UPI etc )


Achievement :

This objective is ON TRACK , and likely to take us to 50 % Non-Cash transaction Economy , by 2020


This has come about due to :

*  MSME / Ordinary consumers had NO OTHER ALTERNATIVE ( but go digital ) , in order to
   survive ! ( much like a child learning to swim by thrashing hands / legs , when thrown
   into water , or risk drowning ! )

  
Mobile Wallet companies / Banks / FinTech Companies / E Commerce firms , saw a huge
   opportunity for making tons of money by aggressively marketing their digital products !
   Of course , with plenty of help from the Government , offering pittance of " discounts "
   and sundry " prizes " !


  Notwithstanding all of this push to GO DIGITAL , our day-to-day payments will slide back
  to CASH, as soon as there is plenty of supply of Rs 500 notes( no getting away from that )



UNSTATED OBJECTIVES :


Interest Rates will come down

    Sure , with a huge influx of funds , most banks have cut their interest rates by 60-80 basis points for lending of loans but so far , there are few takers !
And banks will reduce the interest payable on Savings Accounts , if not already done


Direct tax collection will go up

   It is hoped that 6 million Black Money holders who have deposited Rs 7 lakh*crores  into their bank accounts , will come forward to declare their ( so far ) hidden incomes under PMGKY and pay up 50 % tax .

If last Undisclosed Assets Declaration Scheme is any indication, do not expect more than Rs 40,000 crores to get declared , yielding Rs 20,000 cr by way of taxes


Billions  of  Rupees will get invested in Infrastructure Projects

   Sure , most of those Rs 7 lakh*cr deposited in banks could get invested in Infra SPVs, if :

   *  No questions are asked as to the source of those deposits ( SPV specific Amnesty
      Scheme )

   *  SPVs cannot declare dividends for 10 years

   *  Investments can be withdrawn after 10 years ( along with accrued dividends ) by
      paying prevailing tax rates


      In fact , such an announcement can bring in a further Rs 70 lakh*crores of fresh
      deposits into banks by Black Money holders liquidating their Gold / Jewellery / Land etc


Dear Shri Jaitleyji :


It is still not too late to ,



(http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/11/embrace-inevitable.html }


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09  Jan  2017


www.hemenparekh.in / blogs