A Rapidly Shifting Paradigm

Last week we learned that Elon Musk won the bet  !

Of erecting / installing / commissioning a 100 MW capacity Lithium-ion Battery Storage facility in South Australia , in 100 days ( cost : $ 50 million ) or give it away FREE if not delivered in 100 days !

Now Bllomberg tells us  :

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-30/musk-s-battery-boast-will-be-short-lived-as-rivals-go-bigger

http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3036424

South Korea’s Hyundai Electric & Energy Systems Co is building a 150 MW lithium-ion Battery storage facility in Ulsan ( near South East coast )

But in 90 days  !   And for $ 45 million  !

At $ 0.3 million / MW , Hyundai facility will be 40 % cheaper than TESLA’s $ 0.5 million / MW 

All within 90 days  !

Next expect the Chinese to build a 1000 MW Battery Storage for just $ 200 Million ( @ $ 0.2 million / MW )

And in 60 days  !

Now with solar power prices dropping continuously ( @ 20 % per year from latest Rs 2.4 / kwh ) , it is a matter of few years before all of our coal-based power plants ( @ Rs 3.2 / kwh ) will become uncompetitive / unviable , to provide any kind of load balancing during peak / non peak hours

In any case , India is planning to generate 100 GW of solar power by 2022

BY 2022 , THIS COULD POSSIBLY COST US LESS THAN RE 1 / KWH  !

So , whatever solar power we could manage to generate when the sun is shining , we MUST store in batteries for use at night .

We have no choice but to go for huge Lithium-ion Battery Storage installations , all over India

Possibly , 1000 installations of 100 MW each ,to store those 100 GW of solar power !

Each installation ( on an average ) , costing $ 25 Million  ?  So , a total of $ 25 billion

IFC Report estimates that India needs to invest ( between 2018-30 ) , $ 448 Billion for Renewable Energy ( approx. $ 35 Billion every year )

If we do not plan for these large Battery Installations ( and invite global tenders NOW ) , how much of that Re 1 / kwh solar power ( generated during the day time ) will go waste ?

I hope Shri Piyush Goyalji / Shri R K Singhji / Shri Amitabh Kantji , will examine this

04  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Equalizing / Distributing / Transferring , Pain ?

And , may be pleasure as well  ?

A familiar dialogue in my home goes :

Wife :

I have a terrible headache

Me :

Take an aspirin tablet

Wife :

It has bad side-effects

Me :

I wish I can touch your forehead and let your pain flow into my hand

Wife :

Why don’t you invent such a mechanism ? . It will equalize pain and pleasure , among all the inhabitants of the Earth and ( even ) reduce poverty

Me :

How come ?

Wife :

Millions of jobless poor people will be ready to “ accept “ the pains suffered by rich people , for a fee { Mild Cold for $ 10 / Migraine Headache for $ 50 / Stomach Ache for $ 100 …etc } . Got the idea ?

Me :

Oh ! I see . A simple mechanism to “ transfer “ the pains being suffered by those 1 % of the World’s people who control 58 % of world’s wealth , to the other 99 % of the population , for a price ?

Wife :

And the beauty of my suggestion is : along with the transfer of pain , that wealth-inequality will also get slightly corrected and our government would not have to worry about skilling 500 million youth in 5 years and create 120 million jobs in 10 years ( or else face prospect of losing the 2019 general election ! )

Me :

Hey ! This is revolutionary and far better than “ Organ Donation “ from a dead person to a living person . Here , it is from one “ living “ to another “ living “ – and without waiting your turn ! And, from / to , your person of choice !

Wife :

Now don’t be surprised if many Start-Ups come forward to launch web sites such as :

www.BuySellPain.com , / www.PainTransfer.com  /  www.PainPurchase.com....etc,

online E-Com platforms for Buyers and Sellers , quite like Job Portals and Dating / Marriage Sites

Me :

And that would enable our poor people to compete with poor people everywhere for a share of this very lucrative market . But the best part is :

·         Technology is advancing at such a rapid rate that these “ transfers “ ( of Pain and Pleasure ), can be done remotely across oceans , using Holograms / Hepatic Devices / Brain Computer Interfaces /  VR headsets / whatever else you can think of

·         Such “ Buying / Selling “ of “ Services “ cannot be regulated by WTO ( free for all )

·         There can be no levy of any “ Import Duty / Dumping Duty “ on cross-border transfers

Of course , If Shri Arun Jaitleyji comes to know about this possibility , he may impose a nominal GST of 1 % on such “ Sales Incomes “ ! Except that he would not know from whom to collect the tax since the Seller pays and the Buyer ( of pain ) receives the payment !

Of course , it would work if I am “ Selling ( sharing ? ) pleasure “ for a price with those millions of “ depressed ( but rich ) persons “ of the World except what “ pleasures “ can the poor sell to the rich ?

Wife :

I think you are reading too much of what Peter Diamandis’s  ( http://www.diamandis.com/ )

and  Ray Kurzweil’s ( http://www.kurzweilai.net/ ) ,  writings  about future

Why don’t you look up : https://www.srichinmoylibrary.com/ie-5 : , to realize that it was our very

 own Babar who was the first to invent this technology of “ Pain Transfer “ ?

Poor  Guy !  If we had a Patent Office then , he would have minted a ton of Gold Mohurs !

Me :

If you have any doubt about my prediction , read :

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/11/artficialintelligence.html

https://futurism.com/military-testing-mood-altering-ai/

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/tomorrows-world-nanobots-to-kill-cancer-cells-chatbots-to-talk-to-the-old/article9979534.ece

04  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Not Good Enough !

Business Line ( 30 Nov ) carries following news report :

“ Govt may amend Electricity Act to allow e-vehicle charging stations to sell power “

The Centre is set to make changes to the amendment to the Electricity Act, 2003 to allow electric vehicle charging stations to sell power.

“The NITI Aayog is preparing the roadmap for this. We will propose changes to the amendment to the Electricity Act,” a government official told BusinessLine.

[For my version, see: 

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/10/billionsinchange.html]

The Electricity Amendment Bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha in December 2014, and has been pending there since then. “The government will have to introduce changes to the proposed amendment to allow retailing of power by e-vehicle charging stations. This is because the current amendment does not include a provision to allow a non-discom to sell power,” said PK Pujari, former Power Secretary.

Effectively, the charging station will be acting as an intermediary between the discom ( distribution company ) and the e-vehicle owner, added Pujari.

“At the moment, no one apart from a discom can own power. This means only a discom can set up a charging station,” Saurabh Kumar, Chairman, Energy Efficiency Services Ltd, had told BusinessLine.

“At the moment, there cannot be any private sector participation, unless the regulations allow private players to set up charging stations. This is something the government is working on and I hope it happens very soon, because unless you have charging stations across the country, you cannot expect e-mobility to really happen.”

But the government will also have to define a nodal authority to monitor these charging stations. To this Pujari said: “Since a small business cannot approach the State and Central electricity regulator, the government will also have to establish a nodal authority to regulate and license the charging stations. The discoms can act as regulators for these charging stations and can fix a rate of purchase for them to ensure that there is a margin for the business, too.”

MY  TAKE  :

As I am fond of saying , this is an “ Incremental / half way house “ , like applying a Band-Aid plaster on a deep wound !

Just allowing “ Charging Stations “ to be able to “ Sell Electricity “ and permitting Private Sector to set up such “ Charging Stations “ , will miserably fall short of our goals for E-Mobility ( estimated  500 million vehicles in India to be electric by 2030  )

As it is , currently we have approx. 60,000 petrol / diesel pumps in India , which fill up a vehicle in ( ave ) , 10 minutes

But a Lithium-ion Battery of an Electric Car ( approx. 100 Kwh ) , needs 300 minutes for a full charge ( 30 times longer ! ). Will we need 30 times many more Charging Stations ?

I hope that Road Map which NITI Aayog is supposed to be working on , is as detailed as the “ India’s Energy Storage Mission “

http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/India-Energy-Storage-Mission.pdf

And I hope , it recommends amending Electricity Act whereby ,

Anyone can generate and SELL electricity , anytime and to anyone and at any price !

For reaching the target of 100 GW of Solar power generation by Nov 2022, we need to install 1.5 GW capacity EVERY MONTH for the next 60 month ( remaining 85 GW after current installations totalling 15 GW )

That would require an investment of Rs 10,000 Crore per month , every month for the next 60 months ! ( @ One Billion dollars per GW )

Part of this investment will have to come from Roof Top Solar projects , to be set up by :

·         An Individual home-owner ( who may also want to sell surplus power to a neighbour )

·         A Coop Housing Society wanting its huge unutilized terrace to produce solar power, for its members

·         A Business which will install these roof-tops at its own cost and is allowed to sell power to the residents of a building

    [ Business Line / 30 Nov : 

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/ifc-picks-up-stake-in-cleanmax-

solar/article9976817.ece

      Mumbai-based CleanMax Solar is a pioneer in the ‘opex model’ in India, where the company puts up solar plants— rooftop or otherwise—at its own cost, and sells the power directly to customers. ]

·         Millions of unemployed rural youth wanting to set themselves up in the “ Solar Electricity Selling “ business , with a small investment of Rs 25,000/ - and recharging :

     300 Watt HANS Solar PowerPacks with HANS Solar Briefcase

          http://www.buyhanselectric.in/

Surely , our Policy Makers cannot be unaware of the following benefits to millions of rural youths generating / consuming ( and , even “ selling “ ) solar power :

·         Not need to erect /maintain miles of transmission lines to those huts

·         No need to install and monitor Electricity ( Smart ) Meters

·         No need to collect monthly payments for the power consumed

·         In fact , no need to PRODUCE coal-based power elsewhere , in the first place

·         No pollution due to power from coal-based power plants

·         No need to dig or import expensive coal / or worry about low plant-load factor

·         No need to worry about power thefts / transmission losses !

·         No load shedding ( so common in rural areas ) for “ non-payment of bills / low

          consumption “

·         No need to worry about PEAK / LEAN load periods

·         No need to keep Subsidizing Power for ever

Please,  liberate our rural youth from the tyranny of this hundred year old “ Electricity Act “ !

It has no place in 2017 ( - even if you do not want this BOLD REFORM to ensure absolute

majority in 2019 elections  )

Dear Shri Jaitleyji :

It is time to end the monopoly of the State / Big Houses , in generation / sale of Electricity

There is nothing like competition to decrease COST / increase QUALITY and speed-up DELIVERY of electricity 

Please , do not levy any GST on sale of Electricity to ensure its unlimited availability at Rs 1 / Kwh

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/11/solar-blackmoneyamnesty-indianeconomy.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/11/solarpower-thermalpower-storagebattery.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/solar-power-at-rs-1-per-kwh.html

================================================

03   Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs 

But , Where is the Money ?

Yesterday ( 01 Dec ) , following news reports appeared :

Business Line

“ By 2030, India may offer green investment potential of $ 3 trillion, says IFC report “

Highlights of the funds required :

·         Housing Sector……………………………….. $  1400  Billion

·         Electric Vehicle………………………………   $    667  Billion ( between 2018-2030 )

·         Renewable Energy…………………………   $    448  Billion

·         Transport Infrastructure…………………..$    250  Billion

·         Agriculture……………………………………….$    198  Billion

·         Urban Water Supply………………………   $    128  Billion

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

·         TOTAL………………………………………………$   3091  ( in 12 years = $ 250 Billion per year )

DNA

“ India needs Rs 50 lakh*crore investment in next five years “

While delivering 5^th Annual Defence Estates Day lecture , FM Shri Arun Jaitleyji said :

“ Inadequate infrastructure is a major hindrance in growth and the funding requirement for infrastructure in the country is huge

There is a requirement of a whooping Rs 50 Lakh*Crore investment in the sector over the next five years “ ( approx. $  750  Billion in 5 years = $ 150  Billion per year  )

I believe , if anything , these figures are gross under-estimates , even if we have a modest ambition to become a “ Middle Income Economy “ by 2030 !

But the question is not so much about the accuracy of these estimates

The question is :

From where are we going to find these monies ?

No amount of increasing the coverage of our tax-base , will suffice

And government is committed to lowering the tax rates ( for both , individuals and corporate )

Then there is a limit beyond which we must not increase Foreign Investment ( Direct or Indirect )

And whatever Foreign Investment does flow in, has compulsion of earning a 10 % return ! ( - there is no way we could get foreign loans @ 0.1 % interest , for more than 1 % of our funds requirement ! )

There is only ONE WAY to raise all these funds

And that is :

BLACK MONEY AMNESTY scheme like the one which Indonesia introduced (July 2016-Mar 2017 ) and raised $ 342  BILLION { One third of its GDP } , from 745,000 tax payers , by levying  2 % - 4 % tax ( as against 50 % in our case ) /  NO PENALTY /  NO QUESTIONS  asked  / NO SCRUTINY  !

The Scheme yielded $ 2.3 Billion by way of tax

Now consider the following :

·         India’s BLACK MONEY is estimated to be $ 460  Billion ( apx. 20 % of our GDP )

     Our own recent Amnesty Scheme yielded approx. $ 10  Billion ( 2 % of GDP )

     Indonesia managed $ 342 Billion which amounted to nearly ONE THIRD of its GDP

     If we too could bring out Black Money @ 33 % of our GDP , that would amount to

    nearly $ 800 Billion !

    

·         Indonesia’s BLACK MONEY is estimated to be $ 851  Billion ( parked overseas ) – which means , Indonesia managed to garner nearly 40 % of hidden Black Money !

·         The Indonesian government has estimated 5,500tn rupiah ( = $ 407 Trillion ) will be needed through 2019 for infrastructure; the state budget can probably cover a quarter of that.

   { https://www.ft.com/content/28141116-c841-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f }

·         At the end of the third quarter of 2017, Bank Indonesia (BI), the country’s central bank, announced an interest rate cut down to 4.50 per cent from previous 4.75 per cent.

References :

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/indonesia-shows-way.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/03/innovative-financing.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/05/why-begging-bowl.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/08/nibbling-on-crumbs.html

Did I hear someone say :  “  It is time to look  east-wards “  ?

02  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs